Watched. It's not everyday to see such TLs about two Chinas and two Japans.
I have one question, why not North China include Mongolia?
I have one question, why not North China include Mongolia?
Watched. It's not everyday to see such TLs about two Chinas and two Japans.
I have one question, why not North China include Mongolia?
Timeline is going great; I am definetely following. Are the Soviets going to annex parts of Xinjang? Also, do not forget to about threadmarks, please.
interesting, how this affects the situation in Tibet and India?
Why not "recycle" one of the flags of the Chinese Soviet Republic?
IIRC a significant portion of the intelligentsia were rather pro-Communist throughout the Chinese civil war.
Timeline is going great; I am definetely following. Are the Soviets going to annex parts of Xinjang? Also, do not forget to about threadmarks, please.
Well, I am definitely interested. Chiang and Stalin are definitely the great winners TTL so far, and Japan and Mao will cry a lot.
Why should Stalin allow it? To fortify Mao somehow? Mongolia is red and loyal to Moscow, after all. Mao can surely try, but nobody in the Soviet Union will hear its pleas. If else would only solidify the Mongolian support, and there is also that part of outer Mongolia... if the PRC will do something which will piss the USSR, they can say goodbye to that region and Chiang and the KMT would likely approve it to weak their northern neighbour...
Generally in various TLs Chiang or mediates with Tibet or renounces to it. About India, for first we need to see how the British will left the country first, in short for first if there would be the partition or not TTL or going different.
Well, I kinda smile how both the West (Americans above all, which is unsurprising, but also the Soviets which technically should be more aware) have such a distorted perception over "the two Chinas" because geographically the real China is blue and an historically fringe region is perceived as "China" as well.
I think Chiang has two main issues to present his China as the true and only China in the world, despite on a geographical matter he would be on his right. 1) the five banners = one China, five peoples which was one of the founding bases of the republic, which was in truth based over the will to pretend to rule a Qing size China in Republican sauce. The point is if Chiang would abolish the doctrine - which would mean, let Tibet be free, definitely acknowledge Mongolia and so on - but could work otherwise to present the world "China is the land of the Han and the PRC is Manchuria so we are the only ones which we can call ourselves China and the PRC is a border province of former invaders of China" and so on. But in part for prestige issues, in part because the cold war split would be more incisive in the planet, and also for certain cultural ignorance towards Chinese history in the West, it would be difficult to let not acknowledge the two Chinas is a false axiom like OTL post 1949... but after all Manchuria is also bigger than Taiwan and therefore Chiang would fight more to let prevail this orientation. But he does have the ONU seat... and we can believe would never lose it. And I have the feeling Chiang will be a great supporter of the UN. Not to support the Wallies but for China's own prestige.
Changing subject, I guess it was more harder for MacArthur to impose over South Japan respect to ruling all the archipelago as OTL...
I imagine Ho chi Minh is screwed in this scenario given he won't have access to Southern China as bases or Soviet and Chinese arms.
This is going to be a good opportunity for the VNQDD become the main nationalist force in Vietnam.I imagine Ho chi Minh is screwed in this scenario given he won't have access to Southern China as bases or Soviet and Chinese arms.
I imagine Ho chi Minh is screwed in this scenario given he won't have access to Southern China as bases or Soviet and Chinese arms.
Well, like OTL, there's only one China to both the US and USSR. Their China.
As an FYI, OTL Chiang Kai-Shek actually used the "illegitimate Manchu invaders" argument against the Communists...in the 1950's. He depicted his regime as a successor to Koxinga, the Ming pretender on Taiwan who opposed the Qing.
I...don't know what to do about that yet. As far as I can see...it's pretty complex.
This is going to be a good opportunity for the VNQDD become the main nationalist force in Vietnam.
Of course USA and USSR would pretend that. Doesn't mean, at least for Moscow behind the lines, that in truth won't know Nationalist China is the real China and the PRC is a Soviet satellite, Manchurian melting pot state. Which also means, there would be a different as opposite than OTL divide between China and USSR. Which means, Nationalist China must or likely should work for a reapproachment with the Soviets (whereas we all know China OTL turned towards the US), which could only happen if Nationalist China will distance considerably from US politics. In short I am suggesting that while the West will accept to keep the "Two Chinas" facade at every level (diplomatic as for ideologically), the USSR on an underground level can't afford that. Stalin can bash in the glory of having revenged 1905 and Portsmouth, but at the end of the day they have a hostile China on their eastern flank - a logistical and strategic nightmare in case of WWIII.
Ho Chi Min OTL turned at a certain point to Nationalist China... Chiang apart from ideological differences wasn't too hostile to him as an indipendent Vietnam was surely appealing to him... too much. And because the Vietnamites hated the Chinese not less than the French, Ho Chi Min opened a negotiation with France, which naturally decided to screw it up until ending to Diem Pien Bu. But even if Ho Chi Min will win as OTL, he would still have to deal with China, doesn't matter if blue or red... so again in short: Chiang may help Ho Chi Min depending from what a free Vietnam (ideology in that case wouldn't mind much from both cases, OTL as TTL) but he had the advantage he is the winner in the civil war and Ho Chi Min can't deny that.
If else, Chiang is officiously allied with France - through Britain and the US - and could be pressed from Washington and London to support Paris. But if the French will screw, the Americans could change plans as OTL and allow China to meddle in saving the salvageable... I agree, the situation in Vietnam is more fluid. If else I wonder how the Soviets will perceive the Indochinese situation TTL. Positive bullets: 1) would be still a new brother country on their side in case of Red victory 2) would open them the doors of Southeast Asia 3) would be a thorn in the southern belly of China. Negative bullets: 1) harder logistical issues in aiding them 2) in case of war the Chinese may easily overcome them so could be a waste of resources 3) would raise tensions with China more than ever but as I said is expected to be so is not a big deal. But could be a tenous point later in case of attempted Chinese-Soviet reapproachment.
I doubt Chiang would support Ho Chi Min as a Communist Vietnam would lead to China being surrounded by Communist powers.Chiang may help Ho Chi Min depending from what a free Vietnam (ideology in that case wouldn't mind much from both cases, OTL as TTL) but he had the advantage he is the winner in the civil war and Ho Chi Min can't deny that.
I don't want to spoil too much, but I think you're right in the sense that on the topic of Soviet-ROC rapprochement, the Soviets aren't the stumbling block here. That, and the PRC can act independently. Soviet satellites weren't purely loyal cadets. After all, Romania did all kinds of things to annoy the USSR.
On the topic of Vietnam, it's complicated because it seems Ho Chi Minh has already purged the VNQDD - that the ROC withdrew from Vietnam and got tons of concessions from France in return. And there isn't a solid reason for the KMT to get involved on either side, but they might be dragged in anyways...
I doubt Chiang would support Ho Chi Min as a Communist Vietnam would lead to China being surrounded by Communist powers.
But Chiang would view it that way or as a new southern front of communist expansionbut in the end would be more a clash among nationalisms rather than ideologies in the area
His preference would for non-communist VietnamChiang's China Vietnam would be still Vietnam no matter if communist or democratic or fascist or whatever and with the French collapse in the area, destined to be again the back garden of the Middle Country.
regardless of split or not. A communist lead part of Vietnam would still be a second frontIn short, any Vietnam doesn't have much chance if won't keep Chiang in a good way. In a certain sense also a split Vietnam would be a boon for China TTL, because weaker.
The thing is Chiang holds all the cards if he wanted Vietnam he could have taken it in 1946 but he didn't. Anything he does want he can get but going to France and United States and demanding it in exchange for supporting the state of Vietnam and Bao Dai.So... Ho Chi Min's best bet is making a deal with Chiang even if repulsing him.
True but Manchuria isn't Yugoslavia... too vital to Soviet interests - economically even more than strategic - to play its own game. If Mao will dare to protest Stalin, but also his successors, the PCR will be invaded in a blink. At the same time, the USSR will do everything to prevent the PCR to go nuclear.
Someone asked what happens with Tibet, and well, here we go again.
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The 1948 Chinese Elections and the Renewal of WarThe first elections after the Hurley Agreement were largely foregone. Chiang Kai-Shek was elected President almost unanimously by the National Assembly, with his hand-picked Vice President, Sun Fo, elected by a smaller margin.[1]
In practice under the Constitution, the Republic of China was a representative democracy. However, the system of government was so complex with its five branches and the National Revolutionary Army so strong, the executive branch was very much an “Imperial Presidency.” Although local warlords and corrupt interests held most power outside of the central government, no one could truly challenge Chiang Kai-Shek within the central government.
Fearing a possible KMT defeat in the Civil War, the United States approved the China Aid Act of 1948, establishing the Joint Committee on Rural Reconstruction. American-funded rural reformers traveled the countryside, spreading agronomics and mechanized agriculture. [2] Although the countryside never completely quieted down and the program was nowhere near as successful as any of its supporters assumed it would be, the KMT slowly grew to be accepted, albeit not loved in the countryside. However, extreme inequity in land distribution grew to be an increasing source of discontent.
The KMT had to deal with an incredibly large and diverse nation, still reeling from a World War. A revolt in Taiwan almost spiraled into mass bloodshed before the meditation of Sun Fo, who headed off the worst by agreeing to some minor local autonomy (Chiang Kai-Shek was not happy with the "weak" response, but accepted the deal struck by his ally).[3] The government still had no major presence in much of the tribal Southwest. Furthermore, the Tibetan question immediately came to a head, sparked by a widely publicized and fatal fight between a Muslim merchant and Tibetan policeman.
Hui Muslims were some of the staunchest supporters of the KMT, with many imams declaring Jihad against Japan during the Sino-Japanese War. Furthermore, Hui-Tibetan relations were extremely poor.[4] Nanking cared relatively little about Tibet itself (besides understanding that some sort of sovereignty over Tibet was good for nationalist legitimizing purposes), but it did seek to keep its loyal Hui supporters happy. When angry Muslims set a police station on fire in retaliation, anti-Muslim riots broke out in Lhasa. The ROC sent an ultimatum to Lhasa, to both quell any violence and to submit to Chinese sovereignty.
The Ganden Phodrang government in Tibet looked for British help, but the United Kingdom’s stance was to recognize Chinese sovereignty over Tibet if some autonomy was preserved.[5] The KMT position was to accept Tibetan self-rule under ROC sovereignty, with the condition that Tibet complied with the Constitution’s freedom of religion provisions. However, the Ganden Phodrang refused, with riots intensifying and burning down dozens of mosques, many after local Muslims had been shoved inside.[6] Although the Tibetan government condemned the violence and cracked down on the rioters, this incident inflamed the KMT.
The next morning, President Chiang Kai-Shek signed an executive order extending martial law (currently only in effect on the Communist areas) to the provinces of Tibet and Xikang, defining the Ganden Phodrang as “Communist bandits to be eradicated.” The Republic of China was at war again.
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[1] OTL, Sun Fo actually lost. Kai-Shek is basking in victory though and muscles his man through.
[2] OTL, this was more successful in Taiwan, but still not useless on the Mainland.
[3] As opposed to the OTL 2-28 Incident, the KMT takes a lenient approach, because Taiwan is a rather minor part of their nation (instead of their last bastion).
[4] Lamaist Tibet fought multiple wars against Muslim warlords and anti-Muslim sentiment is still widespread in OTL Tibet.
[5] India is currently embroiled in a struggle over Kashmir with Pakistan (as in OTL).
[6] The Tibetan government actually resists the ITL ROC much more than it resisted the OTL PRC, largely because it associates the ITL ROC with the cause of Islam. That and Mao’s OTL offer to Tibet was actually more generous...it just didn’t last.