20th July plot succeeds?
- Thread starter Starforce
- Start date
A much stronger Israel.
Iirc, half of all the Holocaust victims died in the last year of war, hence TTL most of these probably survive. Yet Europe, and Germany in particular, will still have little appeal for them after their experiences, so many will more than likely head for Palestine. Could be quite a big reinforcement.
Iirc, half of all the Holocaust victims died in the last year of war, hence TTL most of these probably survive. Yet Europe, and Germany in particular, will still have little appeal for them after their experiences, so many will more than likely head for Palestine. Could be quite a big reinforcement.
It would've gone to Hell straight away. Even with the head of the Nazi leadership chopped off, there is no chance the Western Allies would've sought a separate peace with the new German government. At the Casablanca conference in 1943, the Allied policy became 'nothing but unconditional surrender'. And it was also agreed that no separate peaces would be made by any of the Allied powers.
On the German home front, there is absolutely no way in hell that the German Army would take orders from the people who have just assassinated the Supreme Commander of the Wehrmacht. The most likely scenario is Germany falling into a civil war between those who support the coup and those who are fighting for a restoration of the Nazi government, led by the surviving Nazi government. While this is happening, the Eastern Front has become a turkey shoot for the Russians. With no legitimate orders from Berlin, whatever defence the Germans had against the Red Army collapses. While this attempt was going on, an entire army group was being annihilated in Operation Bagration. That operation drove the Germans from eastern Poland. Expect more disasters like these.
The same would happen on the Western Front. German defences against the Western Allies would crumble into non-existence. Paris falls earlier and Germany is crossed into earlier than in our timeline.
It would be more of a race to see who captures Berlin first. My money is still on the Soviets, though the Western Allies probably take a bit more of Eastern Germany.
On the German home front, there is absolutely no way in hell that the German Army would take orders from the people who have just assassinated the Supreme Commander of the Wehrmacht. The most likely scenario is Germany falling into a civil war between those who support the coup and those who are fighting for a restoration of the Nazi government, led by the surviving Nazi government. While this is happening, the Eastern Front has become a turkey shoot for the Russians. With no legitimate orders from Berlin, whatever defence the Germans had against the Red Army collapses. While this attempt was going on, an entire army group was being annihilated in Operation Bagration. That operation drove the Germans from eastern Poland. Expect more disasters like these.
The same would happen on the Western Front. German defences against the Western Allies would crumble into non-existence. Paris falls earlier and Germany is crossed into earlier than in our timeline.
It would be more of a race to see who captures Berlin first. My money is still on the Soviets, though the Western Allies probably take a bit more of Eastern Germany.
Starforce
Banned
Stronger Isreal? That could also mean that Isreal would likely win all of the wars inflicted, and would be alot more stable, maybe more agressive force in the middle east.
The civil war would weaken Germany even more and leave it open to the allies sooner, I'm guessing there would still be an East and West Germany, maybe the soviets would take all of Berlin this time around. Without as much death and war, and a sooner victory for the allies Germany would likely not be affected by the post war shame and such as bad, and the assassination on the Nazi leadership, that might mean that the people of Germany removed it themselves from the point of view of the western allies, allowing Germany to get off easy after the war possibly.
The Marshals in the West were looking for an opportunity to begin unofficial talks about ending the war before any kind of surrender. Hitler death I have always believed would likely have meant chaos in Berlin, an illegitimate government in the eyes of the world and the Marshals effectively acting independent of any orders from Berlin.
Not long after his death I suspect you would have POWs going back and forth with verbal messages from either side on if they open up the front in the West or stage a battlefield surrender what if anything Germany gets out it. If the answers are unsatisfactory it means the war continues into 1945, but more competently fought by the Germans and with no Battle of the Bulge in the West.
Not long after his death I suspect you would have POWs going back and forth with verbal messages from either side on if they open up the front in the West or stage a battlefield surrender what if anything Germany gets out it. If the answers are unsatisfactory it means the war continues into 1945, but more competently fought by the Germans and with no Battle of the Bulge in the West.
Starforce
Banned
If that is the case, I can imagine that the chaos would allow the allies to defeat germany sooner due to the chaos.
Depends on what the WAllies signal they were willing to promote as terms to their superiors. The German divisions in the West would recognize Kluge as well Rommel once he got back from the hospital after a few days as where final authority rests if Berlin is in chaos.
I don't see the divisions having divided loyalties or warring with each other if that is what you are wondering and any idiotic orders from Himmler or any other high ranking party official like OTL's Operation Lüttich won't be carried out.
By this point in time Rommel and Kluge were looking for something akin to a Lee at Appomattox moment, but only I suspect if they could get some unofficial guarantees on Germany's future... like having one.
Germany is still going to lose the war and be occupied, but the biggest fallout is in the area of Germans ending the Final Solution early so many more Jews and others around like Anne Frank (who might become a popular author, but under very different connotations) as well as Germany's own self worth as a nation.
Iterations of this scenario differ, but by in large I agree with Peter Tsouras thesis that the army moves to take control of the camps. After executing some of the leadership they quickly realize how bad the images and video of the camps would hurt their bargaining position with the world, German wartime morale as well as Germany's post war position. They release a few very controlled videos of soldiers and nurses helping some of the inmates in better condition to the world and the German population to see. For the rest they are dispersed and the camps plowed under.
Stories get out and books are written, but without the videos of the worst horror the post war impact is reduced significantly. The effect on the German psyche is the events become taught as something very wrong that some Germans did and others ended.
It would have a very large impact on the German psyche and national sense of self identity today.
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Starforce
Banned
What would Germany be like, today in this alternate timeline? Would it be a bit more like Japan, in terms of how they handled what they did in the past, today?
i wonder if this did happen, would the Allies (WA vs Soviet) start fighting each other. as for the Holocaust, depends on the chaos that happens do we see even more deaths of people in the camps (mass shootings) of the prisoners.
John Fredrick Parker
Donor
@Mikestone8 @jmc247 Speaking of people who might now survive the Holocaust, there’s actually a chance this saves Ernst Thalmann, at least for the time being.
Actually on that subject, this could have all kinds of complicating effects on the Soviet Conquest, and subsequent Stalinization, of Eastern Europe - in addition to the aforementioned negotiations by the Marshals in the west, you’ve also got the question of whether the Russians still sit idly by during the Warsaw Uprising, and how other Axis countries (eg Bulgaria) react to the development.
Actually on that subject, this could have all kinds of complicating effects on the Soviet Conquest, and subsequent Stalinization, of Eastern Europe - in addition to the aforementioned negotiations by the Marshals in the west, you’ve also got the question of whether the Russians still sit idly by during the Warsaw Uprising, and how other Axis countries (eg Bulgaria) react to the development.
Since this would be a military coup without any involvement of the SS, expect the civil war to be between a military-backed government on one side and unrelenting Nazis backed on the SS on the other side mostly. The concentration camps were run by the SS, which was, quite generally, much more present across the home front. There is little chance for the civil war to end with a quick victory over the SS, therefore the camp inmates are likely to suffer the same fate they did IOTL when the Soviets were nearing.
A good question. In July 1944 Wallies hadn't quite broken out of Normandy; Red Army hadn't quite finished destroying Army Group Center. But progress was being made. So two forks this could take. Scenario One: surviving Nazis defeat coup. Then things play out as ITL, more or less. Maybe they (Goering? Himmler?) are more aggressive purging Army officers. So then Market Garden works. Or maybe Ardennes Offensive less likely - preserving reserves dragging out war another month or two.
Scen Two: which is more interesting is the coup does succeed and the Army takes control. Nazis, Ss officers purged. So given (a) the deteriorating situation on all fronts and (b) the Casablanca demand for 'unconditional surrender' the provisional government would still try to negotiate.
From allied POV: One 'lesson' of WW1 -at least to American conventional wisdom- to which the end of which this scenario is similar in that Germany was still unoccupied - was the need to nonetheless occupy Germany and purge it. And Russia and Britain were completely exhausted. Maybe something could have been arranged.
Allies (West and Russia) would have had to agree, together, to terms. I don't think separate western peace was possible for FDR. So terms that maybe the coup plotters would have accepted
(a) move all german forces to bases in Germany; and command given to allied governors of those districts.
(b) demobilization to much much smaller forces
(c) some allied presence in Germany - say a hundred thousand for each of the big four
(d) some agreement to joint jurisdiction for war crimes trials
(e) state.local elections within a year; national to follow once treaty
(g) eastern borders would have still been sticky - Stalin wanted everything pushed west
(h) military occupation of eastern Europe/ Balkans also a little sticky amongst allies. ITL USSR occupied where it went. Here (July 1944) its more fluid. Russia has some of Poland but not yet Romania. So maybe Wallies could have gotten Czech, Hingary as well as west Germany and west Austria.
So without something like that, then I think war would have continued, albeit the holocaust would have stopped.
Scen Two: which is more interesting is the coup does succeed and the Army takes control. Nazis, Ss officers purged. So given (a) the deteriorating situation on all fronts and (b) the Casablanca demand for 'unconditional surrender' the provisional government would still try to negotiate.
From allied POV: One 'lesson' of WW1 -at least to American conventional wisdom- to which the end of which this scenario is similar in that Germany was still unoccupied - was the need to nonetheless occupy Germany and purge it. And Russia and Britain were completely exhausted. Maybe something could have been arranged.
Allies (West and Russia) would have had to agree, together, to terms. I don't think separate western peace was possible for FDR. So terms that maybe the coup plotters would have accepted
(a) move all german forces to bases in Germany; and command given to allied governors of those districts.
(b) demobilization to much much smaller forces
(c) some allied presence in Germany - say a hundred thousand for each of the big four
(d) some agreement to joint jurisdiction for war crimes trials
(e) state.local elections within a year; national to follow once treaty
(g) eastern borders would have still been sticky - Stalin wanted everything pushed west
(h) military occupation of eastern Europe/ Balkans also a little sticky amongst allies. ITL USSR occupied where it went. Here (July 1944) its more fluid. Russia has some of Poland but not yet Romania. So maybe Wallies could have gotten Czech, Hingary as well as west Germany and west Austria.
So without something like that, then I think war would have continued, albeit the holocaust would have stopped.
Do German generals want to be politicians or commanders? If there is a call for a cease fire in the west, and in Italy, Eisenhower and Montgomery would not let that chance go, no matter what Churchill or FRD say. of course a cease fire isn't peace but at least a start.
I think you have to separate which generals. The ones in Berlin wanted to be politicians. The ones in the West wanted to be commanders with the political leash off their decision making.
John Fredrick Parker
Donor
Additional, neat little effect - with Hitler killed at this time, it's entirely possible the US Presidential Election is effected; for example, the TL I linked to earlier had Wallace keeping the VP nomination as Democrats broke out celebrating; for another, the chaos of the conflict might allow Dewey to edge out Roosevelt in the General.
Deleted member 2186
Doubt there will be peace with the Allies, only thing i can see happening is that the new German government keeps fighting on the East Front and opening the door on the West Front in order to get as much as Germany under Allies control.
I've seen a lot of suggestions on this site that basically boil down to the new German government basically surrendering unconditionally once Hitler is dead. I don't really see that happening. Certainly the new government is going to be willing to give up a lot for peace, but if the point of the whole affair is to get a more favorable peace with, primarily, the Western allies, OTL style borders aren't really tempting.
I think the coup plotters have a lot more leverage the more stable the strategic situation is. If it looks like the war is going to drag on a lot longer then the consensus around unconditional surrender might break down. After this coup happens it might also open the window for Axis aligned countries like Hungary and Romania to begin negotiating separate peaces. Rather than invading those countries, as happened in OTL Hungary, Germany could allow them to leave the war as a prelude to their own treaty.
Really what I think this comes down to is how willing the West is to work with the new German government. If Churchill is willing to cut a deal to hold communism back a bit then negotiations stand a chance, particularly if some of the former NSDAP figures are captured and offered up for trial. I don't really know if FDR would be willing to negotiate though, my gut says he wouldn't. Plus, the end of Hitler's leadership could either worsen or make better FDR's health due to new stress or less, which could affect things. A longer lived FDR probably means less negotiation, but a shorter lived FDR could lead to an even less diplomatic new President.
I think the coup plotters have a lot more leverage the more stable the strategic situation is. If it looks like the war is going to drag on a lot longer then the consensus around unconditional surrender might break down. After this coup happens it might also open the window for Axis aligned countries like Hungary and Romania to begin negotiating separate peaces. Rather than invading those countries, as happened in OTL Hungary, Germany could allow them to leave the war as a prelude to their own treaty.
Really what I think this comes down to is how willing the West is to work with the new German government. If Churchill is willing to cut a deal to hold communism back a bit then negotiations stand a chance, particularly if some of the former NSDAP figures are captured and offered up for trial. I don't really know if FDR would be willing to negotiate though, my gut says he wouldn't. Plus, the end of Hitler's leadership could either worsen or make better FDR's health due to new stress or less, which could affect things. A longer lived FDR probably means less negotiation, but a shorter lived FDR could lead to an even less diplomatic new President.
Do you have a source for that? The bulk of Hungarian Jews survived until the Arrow Cross Regime took over in 44-45, but the worst levels of killing in the holocaust overall were between Barbarossa's beginning and 1943.