A Blunted Sickle - Thread II

General thoughts on the posting.

3) Yugoslavia. I'm not sure whether the French have much at the point that would be useful shipping to the Hungarians, but the standard rule Southeast Europe applies, the more the Entente is involved in your country, the more that both the Italians and Soviets (mostly the Italians) can be kept away.
4) Romania. The opposite side from Yugoslavia. I'm not sure how the Romanian Oil gets to Germany, but unless it goes through Yugoslavia, they've lost the 3R as a customer. Not sure how much the USSR could pivot from a plan to invade Poland to one to invade Romania...

I'm not sure Bulgaria, Greece or Turkey declaring war on the 3R is going to do much. Better than Central America iOTL, but not by much...

Greece and Turkey are allied and both of them are also allied with Yugoslavia and Romania through the Balkan Entente, which without France falling should be still around. Given the close relationship with France and Britain they should be declaring war any day now, particularly since Hungary has declared war. Can't let a potential enemy eyeing off pieces of Romania and Yugoslavia claiming to be the only member or the Entente and reaping the possible benefits.
 
This also plays into the Entente's postwar relationship with Germany: there will be seen to be something wrong with German culture, rather than the idea of the Nazis as a particularly evil aberration. That is going to feed into a very long occupation, and German civil society being torn down to the very smallest building blocks and only slowly built up again. It will be a very, very long time before you ever again see a German in uniform holding a weapon.

Surely you mean it will be a very, very long time before you ever again see a German in GERMAN uniform holding a weapon.

It might be only a few months before you see a German in French Foreign Legion uniform holding a weapon and a few years before you see a German in Kings German Legion uniform holding a weapon.
 
Were you reading my notes?
Just a bit of luck at reading between the lines. TTL German-Hungarian relations were a mixed bag - on the one hand Germany has thrown them a bone after Vienna, but on the other hand they invated their Polish neighbours and blocked Hungarian attempts to assist Finland during the Winter War - both things that don't affect that much in a dictatorship, but had an effect to the views of Hungarian decisionmakers before Barbarossa. And as said before, right now Horthy knows which way the wind is blowing and thinks about the postwar order in the region.
 
2. The Slovaks know that this is their only chance to secure their independence/home rule after the war - jump in too early and the Germans squash them, too late and the Entente treat them as an Axis power and puts Beneš back in charge.
Do Germans however have what to squash them with? Uprising in occupied Poland, Hungarians declaring war, Brits pushing towards Poland, French towards Austria and Czechoslovakia. OTL in 1944 squashing took Germans 2 months and Slovaks were fighting mostly with 1939 weapons and more then half of their army gone. Here Germans do not have much new weaponry. And as I said OTL Germans had problems to find enough men power in Protectorate to sent against Slovaks. If they strip men power bare in Protectorate, it is still not enough and there is risk of Czech Uprising then. Protectorate had small so called "Government army", 12 Infantry Battalions plus there was strong Czech Gendarmerie which was in majority pro Czechoslovak.
Slovakia as such could mobilized app 100-150 K men. They did so during war against Poland but used only 3 division and Rapid Group. Definitely they had enough weapons from Czechoslovak stocks to equip app 125k men. In their peace time OoB were 9 Infantry regiments, 4 artillery regiments (weapons for more and some 587 artillery pieces), tank regiment (17 OA-30 armored cars, 30 tanketts TC-33 very obsolete, MG armed, 27 LT-34s obsolete and 52 LT-38, OTL in 1940 10 LT-38s and 21 LT-40 were supplied, I somehow doubt LT-38 will be supplied with German situation, LT-40s could happen though as they were originally ordered by Lithuania). At that time Hungarians had just slightly larger amount of armor!
As to Air Force was probably most obsolete. Here they will very unlikly got any Bf 109s. But still had some 71 B/ Bk-534, 73 S-328 and 14 A-100 plus numbers of training aircrafts.
As such not very strong force but not really something which can be smashed in day or two. Even if Germans put their shit together very quickly, still they will be not able to occupy more then western parts along Vah river and Bratislava. Heck due to situation Slovaks may even get some Hungarian air support. It will be in Hungarian interests Slovaks hold. I wouldn't be surprised if after Hungarian declaration there were some secret negotiation with Slovaks in Budapest.



3.The Entente have probably denounced the Munich agreement by now, and the Vienna Awards are something they will want to discuss at length. What they don't have is a firm policy on what they should do instead, having been concentrating on other things. The Slovaks have at most a few weeks to create facts on the ground before it gets to the top of the to-do list...
With few weeks to jump in it is plenty of time. Due to Hungarians jumping in they can even mobilize as to precautions. However Tiso would be smart if he did it right after Hungarian declaring war. With mobilized army he has much more room for maneuver.

The Hungarians have armor, and the Polish Home Army probably doesnt ... and going to where the opposition isn't and the Home Army is strikes me as a good idea for the Hungarians.
At the time Hungarian armor was app 65 Italian tankettes L3/35 and some 95 Toldis.
 
What will be known as the Warsaw Uprising begins with a series of co-ordinated attacks in Łódź, Radom, Kraków, Białystok and Warsaw involving over 40,000 men, most of them former Polish soldiers who had managed to hide their personal weapons after the German invasion.

This is interesting, Bialystok is in the Soviet-occupied section of Poland. Also, Radom is the location of the headquarters of the German Border Command Center. Any chances of the Poles capturing the commanding general and his staff?
 
At the time Hungarian armor was app 65 Italian tankettes L3/35 and some 95 Toldis.
Have to correct myself. Check few books in my bookshelves on Central European Armor. By end of 1941 Hungarians managed to finish some 190 Toldis. First batch of 80 was plagued by low quality of torsion bars. Second was improved.
 
This is interesting, Bialystok is in the Soviet-occupied section of Poland. Also, Radom is the location of the headquarters of the German Border Command Center. Any chances of the Poles capturing the commanding general and his staff?
I guess nothing would happen in Byalistock but in nearby areas on Germans side of occupation, thats differe story.
Capturing German command center would be really nice bonus which would slow German reaction a bit.
 
I guess nothing would happen in Byalistock but in nearby areas on Germans side of occupation, thats differe story.
Capturing German command center would be really nice bonus which would slow German reaction a bit.
Yeah, that's a mistake on my part - I thought it was over the German side of the control line.
 
Yeah, that's a mistake on my part - I thought it was over the German side of the control line.
Bialystok is just an obscure alternative spelling for Lublin, right? :openedeyewink: More seriously, it does beg the question, how do the Poles in the Soviet zone react to the uprisings to the west. Bialystok (the real one) is to the west of the Curzon Line and has a majority Polish population. In the OTL the Soviets returned this area to Poland after the war. A Polish uprising there would undermine any messaging by the Soviets that their upcoming intervention is to "liberate" the Poles.
 
Bialystok is just an obscure alternative spelling for Lublin, right? :openedeyewink: More seriously, it does beg the question, how do the Poles in the Soviet zone react to the uprisings to the west. Bialystok (the real one) is to the west of the Curzon Line and has a majority Polish population. In the OTL the Soviets returned this area to Poland after the war. A Polish uprising there would undermine any messaging by the Soviets that their upcoming intervention is to "liberate" the Poles.
Well theoretically Stalin may return Bialystok again just to prove his point/ propaganda - USSR "prevented" Germans to occupy territories which should be anyway Soviet under Lord Curzon proposal. ;)
 
I also missed that Krakow in the OTL was the location of the headquarters of the German Border Command South, which would have the responsibility to responding to the Hungarian attacks from the south. Any disruption of this command would complicate the German ability to react to the Hungarian move. Just to be complete, here is the OOB of the German forces in the east as of 10 May 1940.

OB East (GenLt. Curt Ludwig Freiherr Von Gienanth) (HQ: Spala, Poland)

Border Command North (Gen d Art Alfred von Vollard-Bockelburg) (HQ: ?) [4 divisions]

  • 206 Division (Gen. Maj. H. Höfl)
  • 311 Division (Gen. Lt. A Brand) (HQ: Treuburg, East Prussia (now Olecko, Poland))
  • OKH Reserves: XXXXV Corps
    • 395 Division
    • 399 Division
Border Command Center (GenLt. C.L. Frhr. Von Gienanth, also OB East) (HQ: Radom) [8 divisions]
  • XXII Corps (HQ: Lublin)
    • 209 Division
    • 379 Division
  • XXXV Corps (HQ: Siennica)
    • 213 Division
    • 228 Division
    • 386 Division
  • XXXVI Corps (HQ: Radom)
    • 218 Division
    • 372 Division
    • 393 Division
Border Command South (Gen d Art W. Ulex) (HQ: Krakow) [6 divisions]
  • XXXIV Corps (HQ: Lancut)
    • 231 Division
    • 239 Division
    • 351 Division
    • 358 Division
    • 365 Division
    • 425 zbV Division
Source: World War II Armed Forces – Orders of Battle and Organizations (niehorster.org)
 
Well, they did operate in Russia later on
And how much good it did them? Their best equipped army had 84% casualty rate in Stalingrad. Before, in 1941 their Mobile/ Fast/ Rapid Corps suffered some 2000 casualties and suffered loss of 50-80% of their equipment between 27th June and 1st September 1941. By October 10th 1941 they had another 2100 casualties! 50 % losses. Hungarians requested to pull them back to Hungary!
 

marathag

Banned
And how much good it did them? Their best equipped army had 84% casualty rate in Stalingrad. Before, in 1941 their Mobile/ Fast/ Rapid Corps suffered some 2000 casualties and suffered loss of 50-80% of their equipment between 27th June and 1st September 1941. By October 10th 1941 they had another 2100 casualties! 50 % losses. Hungarians requested to pull them back to Hungary!
Lucky for them, they are going against a demoralized invader whos main concern is getting back to Germany.

The Germans will not be fighting as hard as the Soviets
 
Lucky for them, they are going against a demoralized invader whos main concern is getting back to Germany.

The Germans will not be fighting as hard as the Soviets
Possible but we do not know. Especially with winter. Their supply situation will be terrible. Roads and railways in Ruthenia are going in west-east direction, built by Czechoslovaks to guarantee connection with allied Romania.

Just realized, one more reason Hungarians need Slovaks in. To allow them supply routs to Poland through their much more suited road and railway network through mountains.

Do you know how Ruthenian and Slovak border with Poland look like?

If I was Tiso I would use it to negotiate return of Slovak territory lost in March war.
 
Well, that hungarian DOW came as a surprise! Though, I can see why they'd want to jump on the wining side while it was possible.

The world is a very, very different place to OTL 1945. That's one of the reasons this timeline runs so slowly - I'm having too much fun writing the 1950s and 60s!
I'm looking forwards to this then!
 
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