That certainly will factor into Mussolini's thinking. I was just addressing the question of Mussolini's willingness to conduct a militarily ill advised snap offensive if he believed there was a political payoff.
A Blunted Sickle - Thread II
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More on the potential Eastern Front. The next question is what would be the Soviet forces available for an offensive into Poland? The three Soviet military districts directly opposite East Prussia and Poland in the OTL as of 1 June 1941 could mobilize nearly 2 million men, organized into 130 divisions. Here is their organization according to the World War II Armed Forces – Orders of Battle and Organizations website (niehorster.org), which btw I highly recommend:
Baltic Special Military District (Gen. F.I. Kuznetsov) (HQ: Riga) (370,000 men)
Western Special Military District (Gen. D.G. Pavlov) (HQ: Minsk) (671,000 men)
Kiev Special Military District (Gen. M.P. Kirponos) (HQ: Kiev) (907,000 men)
Baltic Special Military District (Gen. F.I. Kuznetsov) (HQ: Riga) (370,000 men)
- 8th Army (8 divisions)
- 11th Army (8 divisions)
- 27th Army (7 division)
- Reserves (3 divisions)
Western Special Military District (Gen. D.G. Pavlov) (HQ: Minsk) (671,000 men)
- 3rd Army (10 divisions)
- 4th Army (7 divisions)
- 10th Army (14 divisions)
- 13th Army (4 divisions)
- Reserves (12 divisions)
Kiev Special Military District (Gen. M.P. Kirponos) (HQ: Kiev) (907,000 men)
- 5th Army (8 divisions)
- 6th Army (11 divisions)
- 12th Army (9 divisions)
- 26th Army (5 divisions)
- Reserves (24 divisions)
Driftless
Donor
Mussolini and the Balkans.... If he takes a pass at doing something in regard to Poland, might he take other actions in the Balkans once it becomes obvious that the Entente drive will swing to Poland? Il Duce's thinking being that Stalin's focus will be up North, and he might be able to secure some diplomatic coup or even a military caper in the Balkans while operating in the shadow of the drama along the Baltic? No clue what events might apply there.
Ironically it might now then be the Finns calling for a trade embargo, as they have little reason to love a regime that threw them under the Soviet steamroller once. The Swedish government will naturally have less sanguine view to the matter, considering their closer proximity to German-controlled territories.
There were a few mentions about weapon smuggling a while back, and the Hungarian public opinion was strongly pro-Polish at the time as well. And in any case they'd better do something. Even though Munich Agreement will be viewed as a common sin of all participants from the TTL postwar perspective, the following dismemberment of Czechoslovakia will make the Hungarians look bad if they don't have something to counter that.
23rd December 1941
Agreement is reached between the governments of Canada and the United States on the construction of a new double-tracked railway line between Prince George in British Columbia and Fairbanks in Alaska. This will run just to the East of the coastal range and follow the route of the Parsnip, Finlay and Katchika rivers north until it reaches the settlement of Watson Lake where it turns west towards Whitehorse. From Whitehorse it then strikes north-east to Fairbanks.
The section of the railway within Canada will be owned and maintained by a Crown Corporation of the Canadian government, but leased to the United States government for thirty years from the date the route is completed for an annual rent of one peppercorn. After this date all immovable assets will revert to the Crown. The Canadian government will also provide construction materials such as ballast as partial payment in kind for the railway, with everything else (mostly rails, rolling stock, and the salaries of those building the railway) being the responsibility of the US Army Corps of Engineers. Visa restrictions will also be waived for up to 8,000 US citizens working on the construction of the railway.
Surveying work and the accumulation of stores in Whitehorse, Fairbanks and Prince George will be carried out over the course of the winter with construction starting in the spring.
Konstantin von Neurath, Reichsprotektor of Bohemia and Moravia is shot dead by Warrant Officer Jozef Gabčík and Staff Sergeant Karel Svoboda in Prague. Gabčík in turn is shot dead by von Neurath's guards, but Svoboda manages to escape in the confusion and reach a safe house.
24th December 1941
What will be known as the Warsaw Uprising begins with a series of co-ordinated attacks in Łódź, Radom, Kraków, Białystok and Warsaw involving over 40,000 men, most of them former Polish soldiers who had managed to hide their personal weapons after the German invasion.
The early stages of the uprising are surprisingly successful, greatly aided by the fact that a co-ordinated campaign of sabotage coupled with very cold weather has managed to bring the railway network almost to a standstill. Intelligence and assistance provided by the Blue Police (who by now are essentially under the control of the ZWZ) also proves crucial to the success of operations like the storming of the Pawiak prison.
That same morning, the Hungarian Prime Minister Dr. Miklós Kállay hands a declaration of war to the German ambassador to Budapest. Citing the long history of Polish-Hungarian friendship, he tells the ambassador that the Hungarian people can no longer stand idly by while the Germans oppress Poland. The bitter retort from the German ambassador that this friendship was rather lacking in 1939 is quietly ignored, and the ambassador is ushered out of the Sándor Palace and back to the embassy.
Meanwhile, the Hungarian forces in Carpatho-Ukraine cross the border into Poland and liberate the vilage of Wołosate before heading northwards in the general direction of Rzeszow. Progress is slow, mostly due to the terrible state of the local roads rather than anything done by the Germans – thanks to heavy smuggling across the border in the past two years, the border zone is almost a no-go area for the Germans outside of the infantry company defending Ustrzyki Górne with whom the Hungarians come into contact in the early evening.
Agreement is reached between the governments of Canada and the United States on the construction of a new double-tracked railway line between Prince George in British Columbia and Fairbanks in Alaska. This will run just to the East of the coastal range and follow the route of the Parsnip, Finlay and Katchika rivers north until it reaches the settlement of Watson Lake where it turns west towards Whitehorse. From Whitehorse it then strikes north-east to Fairbanks.
The section of the railway within Canada will be owned and maintained by a Crown Corporation of the Canadian government, but leased to the United States government for thirty years from the date the route is completed for an annual rent of one peppercorn. After this date all immovable assets will revert to the Crown. The Canadian government will also provide construction materials such as ballast as partial payment in kind for the railway, with everything else (mostly rails, rolling stock, and the salaries of those building the railway) being the responsibility of the US Army Corps of Engineers. Visa restrictions will also be waived for up to 8,000 US citizens working on the construction of the railway.
Surveying work and the accumulation of stores in Whitehorse, Fairbanks and Prince George will be carried out over the course of the winter with construction starting in the spring.
Konstantin von Neurath, Reichsprotektor of Bohemia and Moravia is shot dead by Warrant Officer Jozef Gabčík and Staff Sergeant Karel Svoboda in Prague. Gabčík in turn is shot dead by von Neurath's guards, but Svoboda manages to escape in the confusion and reach a safe house.
24th December 1941
What will be known as the Warsaw Uprising begins with a series of co-ordinated attacks in Łódź, Radom, Kraków, Białystok and Warsaw involving over 40,000 men, most of them former Polish soldiers who had managed to hide their personal weapons after the German invasion.
The early stages of the uprising are surprisingly successful, greatly aided by the fact that a co-ordinated campaign of sabotage coupled with very cold weather has managed to bring the railway network almost to a standstill. Intelligence and assistance provided by the Blue Police (who by now are essentially under the control of the ZWZ) also proves crucial to the success of operations like the storming of the Pawiak prison.
That same morning, the Hungarian Prime Minister Dr. Miklós Kállay hands a declaration of war to the German ambassador to Budapest. Citing the long history of Polish-Hungarian friendship, he tells the ambassador that the Hungarian people can no longer stand idly by while the Germans oppress Poland. The bitter retort from the German ambassador that this friendship was rather lacking in 1939 is quietly ignored, and the ambassador is ushered out of the Sándor Palace and back to the embassy.
Meanwhile, the Hungarian forces in Carpatho-Ukraine cross the border into Poland and liberate the vilage of Wołosate before heading northwards in the general direction of Rzeszow. Progress is slow, mostly due to the terrible state of the local roads rather than anything done by the Germans – thanks to heavy smuggling across the border in the past two years, the border zone is almost a no-go area for the Germans outside of the infantry company defending Ustrzyki Górne with whom the Hungarians come into contact in the early evening.
marathag
Banned
Well well there will be planty of confusion just because of helmets Hungarians are using.
Besides, the Germans are easy to spot, they will be the ones heading West
Ian_W
Banned
It should be noted that A-H, while having its army in dire straits, was fundamentally still functional when Italy invaded it.
This 'third reich' will probably start falling apart within days of the British starting their Weser-crossing-exercise
With the Hungarians declaring, it's not even going to take that long.
Well that will be Hungarians too. And If Slovaks join in will they even hasitate?Rest of the kit is probably distinct enough.
Besides, the Germans are easy to spot, they will be the ones heading West
Depends. But as Germas were doing worst I guess here they just have whatever they manufactured plus Italian planes.
I think this is a good deal but I'm not familiar enough with infrastructure and rail projects to be definite.
Interesting to see TTL Anthropoid be s success (RIP Gabčík) but it does leave the question of where's Heydrich TTL?
Hopefully the good fortune lasts and good to see the extent of NAZI horrors starting to be fully exposed.
That's an interesting development. So the Polish informed the Hungarian government in advance as a contingency if the Entente did not help? I wonder if we should expect Mousalini to 'try' to do something shortly as he has proven to be sensitive to the Balkans states (for lack of a better term even though Hungary is technically not in the region its government shares characteristics with many of the other states) showing too much independent initiative.
Ian_W
Banned
That really depends on how successful an Italian intervention is.
If the Germans at the border are brushed aside and there are Italians in Vienna, it's going to take the Entente going to war to stop Austria becoming an Italian satellite. And I don't think they'll go to war over Austria.
Donald Reaver
Donor
The German army in the West is a thin shell that protects what is left. It will be weak in most areas, with areas of strength backed by favourable ground. Smashing through that shell will take casualties, but once through the massive firepower and mobility will condemn the German forces to be surrounded or bypassed. The Entente can advance faster than they can retreat. With Hungry joining the war, the German High command will realize that they need to find the best deal they can for survival. Not likely they will get it, look forward to seeing them making ever increasing desperate proposals to the West to end the war.
And not only would they have sufficient reserves to stem an offensive once through the crust, it's probably more or less incapable of actually moving those non-existent reserves to where they would be needed at anything faster than marching pace.
