I was surprised that the Democrats captured the Governor's mansions in Ohio and Florida. Florida and Ohio are bellwether states, so this doesn't look great for the Republicans in 2020. On the bright side, the GOP took the Governorship of California and Charlie Baker narrowly won the Governorship of Massachusetts. So if they can win in these most liberal of states, the Republicans still have a chance in 2020.
DBWI: Mario Cuomo Doesn't Run in 1992
- Thread starter Amadeus
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I was surprised that the Democrats captured the Governor's mansions in Ohio and Florida. Florida and Ohio are bellwether states, so this doesn't look great for the Republicans in 2020. On the bright side, the GOP took the Governorship of California and Charlie Baker narrowly won the Governorship of Massachusetts. So if they can win in these most liberal of states, the Republicans still have a chance in 2020.
Aside from California, I was thoroughly surprised by the GOP pickup in Oregon. It was probably due to the whole corruption thing surrounding Kate Brown and her predecessor, which allowed Chris Dudley to win.
So, I was looking over an in-depth article from FiveThirtyEight from the 2016 presidential election. I noticed some trends that shocked me.
Romney ended up making significant ground on groups that have usually voted Democratic in the past. For example, while Romney handily won over both white men and white women voters, he ended up getting 38% of the African American vote, 43% of the Hispanic vote, and 46% of the Asian American vote. While Biden did end up winning these groups (besides the white vote), Romney was able to make tremendous gains in these areas unseen by any Republican nominee in decades. And, in the 2014 and 2016 cycles for House and Senate elections, we saw a more diverse crowd of Republican Senators and Congressmen, filled with more African Americans, Asian-Americans, and women than ever before. Even though this past Congress elected a large amount of those groups from the Democratic Party, most of them from the party’s more progressive wing, it’s still standing that the Republican Party is moving towards a more diverse future.
A few questions: where do you think this will lead for the Republican Party in the future, where do you think this change started, and who are major power players in the future for either party?
Romney ended up making significant ground on groups that have usually voted Democratic in the past. For example, while Romney handily won over both white men and white women voters, he ended up getting 38% of the African American vote, 43% of the Hispanic vote, and 46% of the Asian American vote. While Biden did end up winning these groups (besides the white vote), Romney was able to make tremendous gains in these areas unseen by any Republican nominee in decades. And, in the 2014 and 2016 cycles for House and Senate elections, we saw a more diverse crowd of Republican Senators and Congressmen, filled with more African Americans, Asian-Americans, and women than ever before. Even though this past Congress elected a large amount of those groups from the Democratic Party, most of them from the party’s more progressive wing, it’s still standing that the Republican Party is moving towards a more diverse future.
A few questions: where do you think this will lead for the Republican Party in the future, where do you think this change started, and who are major power players in the future for either party?
I think it will keep both parties competitive at the national level. This is in stark contrast to 1992-2008, when the GOP managed to win only one presidential election in sixteen years. Vice-President Jindal is the frontrunner for 2020, but unfortunately for the Republicans most of their other heavy hitters went down in 2018. Scott lost to Nelson in Florida, King was beaten by Gillibrand in New York, and of course Cruz lost his Texas Senate seat to O'Rourke after only one term. On the Democratic side you have Booker, Sanders, Warren, and Harris - who is expected to announce her candidacy on MLK Day.
I wouldn’t worry too much about other front runners. I heard Secretary of State Nikki Haley is expected to run, and will be the front runner if Jindal doesn’t run. I actually heard Senators Rand Paul, Marco Rubio, and Dino Rossi might run as well. Senator Heather Wilson from New Mexico might also run as well. Hell, I even heard Senator Mia Love, who just won her Senate seat in 2018, might run as well. Again, this may all be if Jindal doesn’t run, but it appears that for both parties, you have a wide open field of diverse candidates.
Rubio wouldn't be a bad candidate. Paul is too outside of the mainstream to win. Love could be a good standard bearer in 2024 or 2028, but in 2020 she'll have been a Senator for only a year.
I wouldn’t mind Rubio. Love would be seen as a barrier breaker for the GOP, but her just being elected this past cycle wouldn’t be good for her. Plus, she is the chair of the newly created Congressional Black Republican Caucus, and will likely remain as such for a few years.
@Amadeus. Last night was one of President Romney’s final State of the Union addresses. How do you think he did, and what do you think it’s implications are for 2020?
Seven parts sounding like his dad, and three parts sounding like the setup to a ContraPoints video. In fact, I was half-expecting Tabby to deliver the Democratic response instead of Ed Markey.
Not bad, but not great either. Romney has improved as time goes by, but I still yearn for an orator with Obama's level of skill and style.
I think he was pretty good last night. There were points where cameras couldn’t help but pan to the more progressive members of Congress, especially the New Progressive Caucus, who were dressed in all white last night.
OOC: I would presume the progressive wave is still present in the TL.
OOC: I believe they were dressed in white to protest Kavanaugh and the sexual assault allegations against Trump. I don't see how that is the same under Romney.
OOC: I read somewhere that they were dressed in white to support general women’s rights. They wore black last year to protest sexual assault.
OOC: I'm revisiting this thread to post what I think is an ideal list of Presidents under the POD:
41. George Bush (1989-1993), R-TX
42. Mario Cuomo (1993-2001), D-NY
43. Al Gore (2001-2005), D-TN
44. John McCain (2005-2013), R-AZ
45. Barack Obama (2013-2021), D-IL
What's different from this DBWI universe is that McCain is re-elected and Obama's election is delayed to 2012. I think McCain could win in 2008 if he handles foreign policy better than Bush and if butterflies delay the economic crisis.
@TheAllTimeGreatest any thoughts?
41. George Bush (1989-1993), R-TX
42. Mario Cuomo (1993-2001), D-NY
43. Al Gore (2001-2005), D-TN
44. John McCain (2005-2013), R-AZ
45. Barack Obama (2013-2021), D-IL
What's different from this DBWI universe is that McCain is re-elected and Obama's election is delayed to 2012. I think McCain could win in 2008 if he handles foreign policy better than Bush and if butterflies delay the economic crisis.
@TheAllTimeGreatest any thoughts?
Hmm...it depends on what the distinct POD would be that causes McCain’s re-election.
OOC: I'm thinking that as a result of Cuomo's election, the financial deregulation of the late 1990s is postponed to the early 2000s. Also Greenspan is replaced at the Fed in 1994, meaning a different monetary policy over the next ten years. This combines to postpone the financial crisis to after 2008, when President McCain defeats his friend John Kerry to win a second term.
And @TheAllTimeGreatest, in such a scenario Obama rises to national prominence not at the 2004 DNC but four years later in 2008, when he's already been a Senator. Like Cuomo in 1984, Obama's speech energizes Democrats in spite of likely defeat and he wins the nomination in 2012.
OOC: How bad is the financial crisis in this TL? Like how badly does it affect the McCain administration?