Best Scenario for Native Americans

Dealing with what-if history for the Americas can be a pain when it comes to dealing with any scenario that results in Native Americans not being decimated by Europeans. A large amount of pre-Columbian history has been simply lost or destroyed. And we're only finding now that there were some civilizations in the Americas that could have been much vaster than realized (such as the new discovery in the Amazon Rainforest).

So what could have been a best-case scenario for Native Americans? Is there any way for them to avoid the dooms of plague and genocide? And if they do, what would the continents look like now?
 

GeographyDude

Gone Fishin'
Oh, without a doubt, smallpox minor gets here before smallpox major.

variola minor is the technical name

==========================================

Later edits:

https://books.google.com/books?id=A...tion of this disease given by Jenner"&f=false

' . . . In particular, a vivid description of this [minor form] disease given by Jenner (1792) who observed an epidemic of such infection in Gloucestershire in 1791, . . . referred to in the literature as white pox, milk pox, minor pox, kaffir pox, etc. . . '
So, there may be some question of how long the minor form of smallpox has existed.

https://www.pnas.org/content/104/40/15787.full

‘ . . . This clade [minor form] diverged from an ancestral VARV either 1,400 or 6,300 YBP [Years Before Present]. . . ’
Or, the minor form may have been around for plenty of time.
 
Last edited:
You must consider some changes to the environment that can give the Natives not only immunity to diseases but also greater access to animal husbandry. Anything after 1492, may just be too late in the impending doom of Native American civilizations.
 
Oh, without a doubt, smallpox minor gets here before smallpox major.

variola minor is the technical name

I'm not sure how to do that. I would guess, though, that Vikings could have brought over minor versions of major diseases.

You must consider some changes to the environment that can give the Natives not only immunity to diseases but also greater access to animal husbandry. Anything after 1492, may just be too late in the impending doom of Native American civilizations.

I'm wondering if having the Vikings colonies last longer on North America could work for this. Vikings had access to farming animals and knowledge of animal husbandry. Horses could especially have changed things up. Some friendlier interactions couldn't have hurt either.

If the settlements lasted until 1492 then it's possible the European diseases were imported slowly and immunity gained. Similarly, weapons could have been imported in (and stolen, sold, or traded). As could have animals. By this time, at least the Eastern Natives would have a pretty good idea who and what they were dealing with when it came to the Europeans and undoubtedly word of mouth could have spread more tales about them (if such tales reached Mesoamerica they'd undoubtedly be highly distorted - on the other hand even such wild rumors could prepare them for the arrival of Columbus). Given how Viking ships were pretty efficient at travelling, they could have been emulated by the Natives. Perhaps the Haudenosaunee might have even tried to trace back the routes of the Vikings and 'discover' Europe.

Interestingly, this could give the Kingdom of Denmark some claim to eastern coastal areas possibly ranging from Newfoundland to Maine.

The very best possible scenario is the Phoenicians reaching America and dropping their entire tech package.

Well, yes, the further back the contact is the more likely that things will change. The Roman Empire and/or China during that time could significantly alter things. Of course, there could also be trade with ancient Egypt during the 21st dynasty.
 

GeographyDude

Gone Fishin'
. . . Vikings could have brought over minor versions of major diseases. . . access to farming animals . . .
I like the Vikings scenario, and it will still have a poignant bass note, because smallpox minor will still cause a fair number of deaths and social disruptions.

In fact, some native peoples might even call it the ‘great catastrophe,’ and only their citizens from later centuries who are fans of alternate history will truly realize just how lucky they were.
 
Last edited:
I like the Vikings scenario, and it will still have a poignant bass note, because smallpox minor will still cause a fair number of deaths and social disruptions.

In fact, some native peoples might even call it the ‘great catastrophe,’ and only their citizens from later centuries who are fans of alternate history will truly realize just how lucky they were.

But wouldn't they be devastated by the other diseases brought over by Europeans like Measles, Flu, the Plague, etc. And wouldn't the versions of smallpox the natives were exposed to have diverged and they be devastated again by the new version from the Old World.
 
But wouldn't they be devastated by the other diseases brought over by Europeans like Measles, Flu, the Plague, etc. And wouldn't the versions of smallpox the natives were exposed to have diverged and they be devastated again by the new version from the Old World.

Smallpox minor is not smallpox major. Once infected by smallpox minor the person would be immune for life because their immune system is prepared for the similar smallpox major, even if it mutates. Smallpox minor kills less than one percent of the infected, but in virgin soil maybe the death rate will be higher, but it would probably still be very low. The disease is native to Africa so I’m not sure how the Norse could spread it.

Yes the other diseases killed more in total. Still a larger surviving population can have disporportionate impact. A loss of 70% instead og 90% population would mean 3 times the native population. Also a significant fraction of that 90%+ population loss was due to being displaced from good farmland and hunting gathering grounds, violence and slavery. So more survivors means greater potential for revolts which results in better treatment from their conquerors i.e. the Pueblos after Pope’s Rebellion. Some native people like the Inca who were conquered largely because fragmentation caused by smallpox would benefit further if they were vassalized instead of outright conquered.
 
Have literally anyone but the Iberians find the Americas, they had just finished a 700 year (off and an on) ethno-religious holy war and literally were still in crusader mentality when they found the Americas. Much of the brutality and genocide that occurred would not have happened and there would be, barring losses to disease and the civil wars and inter-tribal conflicts that occurred following western epidemics, the violence and brutality would not have been that bad. As horrible many of the Europeans were in their colonial histories what the Iberians did in the Americas is so unbelievable that priests from the church were horrified.
 
It depends critically on your POD. For example, if you assume that horses and other large domesticable animals survive then they may be able to keep out the Europeans. Of course in this case Native American society would be totally different. Alternatively, if you imagine Europeans never sail west then Native American societies likely survive. Broadly, I think if you have a POD after 1492 it is hard to see anything other than plague and doom. I actually think the Iberians were no worse than any other. For example, English diseases wiped out Northern tribes (this is why the pilgrims basically were able to move into recently destroyed villages). Assuming you don't want a massive POD (e.g. horses survive) I would suggest a slightly stronger Viking settlement might be the best possibility. Introduce a few diseases and some animals and perhaps you could preserve some native culture.
 
It depends critically on your POD. For example, if you assume that horses and other large domesticable animals survive then they may be able to keep out the Europeans. Of course in this case Native American society would be totally different. Alternatively, if you imagine Europeans never sail west then Native American societies likely survive. Broadly, I think if you have a POD after 1492 it is hard to see anything other than plague and doom. I actually think the Iberians were no worse than any other. For example, English diseases wiped out Northern tribes (this is why the pilgrims basically were able to move into recently destroyed villages). Assuming you don't want a massive POD (e.g. horses survive) I would suggest a slightly stronger Viking settlement might be the best possibility. Introduce a few diseases and some animals and perhaps you could preserve some native culture.
The Spanish fed people to dogs. I have read what the Spanish did in their conquests and trust me, what they did only the Belgians in the Congo come close to what the other Europeans did elsewhere.
 
I like the Vikings scenario, and it will still have a poignant bass note, because smallpox minor will still cause a fair number of deaths and social disruptions.

In fact, some native peoples might even call it the ‘great catastrophe,’ and only their citizens from later centuries who are fans of alternate history will truly realize just how lucky they were.

But wouldn't they be devastated by the other diseases brought over by Europeans like Measles, Flu, the Plague, etc. And wouldn't the versions of smallpox the natives were exposed to have diverged and they be devastated again by the new version from the Old World.

Yeah, no matter how I add things up, I can never quite get past the part where 'Europe was a cesspool of diseases' comes in.


Thanks! Those are very helpful!

Have literally anyone but the Iberians find the Americas, they had just finished a 700 year (off and an on) ethno-religious holy war and literally were still in crusader mentality when they found the Americas. Much of the brutality and genocide that occurred would not have happened and there would be, barring losses to disease and the civil wars and inter-tribal conflicts that occurred following western epidemics, the violence and brutality would not have been that bad. As horrible many of the Europeans were in their colonial histories what the Iberians did in the Americas is so unbelievable that priests from the church were horrified.

Hmm, this plays well with the Vikings.

It depends critically on your POD. For example, if you assume that horses and other large domesticable animals survive then they may be able to keep out the Europeans. Of course in this case Native American society would be totally different. Alternatively, if you imagine Europeans never sail west then Native American societies likely survive. Broadly, I think if you have a POD after 1492 it is hard to see anything other than plague and doom. I actually think the Iberians were no worse than any other. For example, English diseases wiped out Northern tribes (this is why the pilgrims basically were able to move into recently destroyed villages). Assuming you don't want a massive POD (e.g. horses survive) I would suggest a slightly stronger Viking settlement might be the best possibility. Introduce a few diseases and some animals and perhaps you could preserve some native culture.

Hmm, well, let's see. A massive POD would probably not work without a lot of input, so I'll try something more reasonable:

c. 1000: Erik the read and Leif Ericson find Greenland, Baffin Island (Helluland), Labrador (Markland), and Newfoundland (Vinland).
c. 1100: The settlement at L'Anse aux Meadows is thriving. Several more communities have been established further south into Quebec along the Atlantic coast. Horses, sheep, pigs, and similar animals are brought over. Trade with Natives has been established, though there are still skirmishes. {Likely the first exposure to European diseases happen here.}
c. 1142: The Haudenosaunee form a Confederacy. The settlement at L'Anse is attacked and abandoned as people flee south.
c. 1216: King Valdemar II learns of the colonies and takes great interest in them and their potential. He formally establishes rule over them and eventually the feudal system. Though trade was now firmly established with the Kingdom of Denmark, the colonists felt no particular loyalty to the realm. They did, however, establish territory in southern Quebec and northern Maine and trade relations with the Haudenosaunee.
c. 1400: Margaret I establishes more formal relations with the colonies and makes them part of her Kalmar Union.
c. 1523: The colonies break from the Kalmar Union and from the Kingdom of Denmark and form their own kingdom, largely in the area of northern Maine and southern Quebec.

At some point other European countries are going to find out about these colonies, but I'm not sure when. Similarly introducing European diseases and technologies is going to alter things.

Thoughts? Suggestions?
 
Would a Chinese or any East Asian state discovering America before the Europeans, a plausible and beneficial scenario for the native Americans? The Rocky Mountains might be a good barrier if the Chinese landed in north America. PODs I don't know, just my two cents.
 

GeographyDude

Gone Fishin'
c. 1100: The settlement at L'Anse aux Meadows is thriving. Several more communities have been established further south into Quebec along the Atlantic coast. Horses, sheep, pigs, and similar animals are brought over. Trade with Natives has been established, though there are still skirmishes. {Likely the first exposure to European diseases happen here.}
Animals both add to a local food economy, and diseases which provide at least some resistance to the more serious forms.

We need to get lucky with smallpox and probably also whatever disease is second most deadly, probably measles. And this is not outrageous good luck, because most diseases become more minor over time. For example, if I get a minor variant and I’m out walking around feeling crappy, I’m much more efficient at spreading that variant than is a person laid out on the floor of their hut feeling that they’re at the verge of death.

Still, it does constitute some good luck and in literary terms, constitutes a premise. So, a writer can introduce that premise at the beginning and then build his or her story from there. That continuous chronological order I think is the most direct way to do it, but there are of course other ways as well.
 
Last edited:
The Spanish fed people to dogs. I have read what the Spanish did in their conquests and trust me, what they did only the Belgians in the Congo come close to what the other Europeans did elsewhere.

I agree they were super-nasty (although I just don't have the expertise to say whether they were nastier than say the French). That said I don't think the nastiness is what really does in the Native Americans. Instead the vast majority are done in via disease.
 
Would a Chinese or any East Asian state discovering America before the Europeans, a plausible and beneficial scenario for the native Americans? The Rocky Mountains might be a good barrier if the Chinese landed in north America. PODs I don't know, just my two cents.

Well, the easiest way is that the Xuande Emperor ordered Zheng He to explore the Eastern Ocean in 1430 instead of the Western Ocean. This is not much before 1492 but it is a bit and perhaps enough time for China to establish a small colony on the western coast somewhere. All the same, I don't see this altering things enough. Maybe in an earlier Ming treasure voyage closer to 1403, but even then it's hard to say, though there is a thread on it.

Animals both add to a local food economy, and diseases which provide at least some resistance to the more serious forms.

We need to get lucky with at least smallpox also whatever disease is second most deadly, probably measles. And this is not outrageous good luck, because most diseases become more minor over time. For example, if I get a minor variant and I’m out walking around feeling crappy, I’m much more efficient at spreading that variant than is a person laid out on the floor of their gut feeling they’re at the verge of death.

Still, it does constitute some good luck and in literary terms, constitutes a premise. So, a writer can introduce that premise at the beginning and then build his or her story from there. That continuous chronological order I think is the most direct way to do it, but there are of course other ways as well.

Yeah. It's really not a matter of animals or even tech so much as the diseases that really cause huge issues with any viable alternative history here. A more major alteration in history (horses and/or camels not going extinct) could see them developing civilizations along the tech lines of Middle Eastern ones more or less, but this leads to all sorts of other changes that will be difficult to track. Certainly if the POD is that they have draft animals then somewhere like Cahokia could become polluted and an area where diseases like those in Europe developed. Of course, this could also lead to a sort of reverse plague where Europeans bring back diseases just as deadly to them as the European ones were to the Natives, leading to a sort of great die off.
 
Last edited:
Obviously, the earlier the POD, the better they'll do, but I think even with a pretty late POD you can seriously improve their chances. Columbus' voyage was particularly unlucky for the natives: Columbus was a religious fanatic and would-be crusader, working for monarchs eager to spread Catholicism even further after the success of the Reconquista, who landed on a well-populated island full of potential Christians wearing gold trinkets and talking about sources of even more gold further inland.

If the initial landings had happened elsewhere, and involved people and powers less interested in conquest, the arrival of Europeans might have at least been slower, giving the natives enough time (with a lot of luck) to weather ineivtable waves of diseases without being overrun. Cabral landed on the coast of Brazil by accident (maybe) and basically just thought it was a big island with a lot of trees and a couple of savages, definitely worth exploring further, but not the most important thing in the world; John Cabot just found rocky coast and the remains of a fire, and kept hoping for a Northwest passage. If European first contact with Americas had been more like that, natives would have... done slightly better, probably.
 
But wouldn't they be devastated by the other diseases brought over by Europeans like Measles, Flu, the Plague, etc. And wouldn't the versions of smallpox the natives were exposed to have diverged and they be devastated again by the new version from the Old World.

If they've had livestock for a thousand years, maybe the Americas have cooked up airborne hantapox or some such to give the Europeans.
 
Top