Year of the Jinx - An AH story/timeline by Geon

[Geon]

Chapter 13 – Give Peace a Chance!

The Tojo Proposal:

On January 1st, 1943 a document was delivered by Japanese envoys to the U.S. and U.K. embassies in Switzerland, Sweden, and Turkey. The document was a proposal made by Prime Minister Hideki Tojo for the purpose of “bringing the present hostilities to a close.”

The document was the result of consultations between Japan and Germany. Tojo felt now was the best time, while the Allies were in a disadvantageous position to negotiate from a position of strength. His ambassadors had presented the plan to both Italy and Germany for their approval.

The basic ideas were quickly approved by Mussolini who was fearful of losing his empire. Already British forces were on the offensive in Abyssinia (formerly Ethiopia) and it was clear Montgomery would soon be starting a counteroffensive in Libya. For Mussolini half a loaf was better than none.

Hitler had been a harder sell on the idea. He had as much as told the ambassadors he wanted to ride in triumph into Moscow as he had several months ago into Paris – and then unlike Paris blow Moscow to smithereens!

But Hitler was concerned. The great offensive Barbarossa had stalled. His troops were freezing in the snows in Stalingrad and elsewhere and his generals had told him it was only a matter of time before the Russians launched a counter-offensive. Perhaps now was the time to go to the negotiating table while they controlled so much territory. The ambassadors had persuasively argued how long would Stalin’s grip on Russia last if like the Czar before him his people had to endure further privations and losses?

Hitler had thus, very reluctantly agreed to the plan which was now being presented to the Allies.

The Tojo Proposal began with a prelude outlining how the present war was the result of poor decision making by all concerned. Peace the preamble argued was certainly preferable to continued warfare and destruction not to mention the death of another generation such as had died in the First World War. Here the Japanese were playing particularly to the British who had lost an entire generation to the trenches in World War I.

The second part of the Proposal outlined that each of the powers (The U.S., the U.K. the U.S.S.R., Germany, Italy, and Japan[as far as Japan was concerned France no longer counted for anything]) had “legitimate spheres of influence. It then began to divide up the world accordingly for each of the powers.

• Japan’s sphere of influence would extend through all of Southeast Asia and the Western Pacific including the islands in the South Pacific.
  
  
• Germany’s sphere of influence would extend through all of Central, Western, and Eastern Europe.
  
  
• Italy’s sphere of influence would include the Balkan nations and Northern Africa.
  
  
• The U.K.’s influence would include the British Isles and “such British overseas colonies as shall be determined as necessary for the economic stability of that island nation.”
  
  
• The United States’ sphere of influence shall be designated as all those nations on the North and
  South American continents.
  
  
• The U.S.S.R.’s sphere of influence would include all of the northern Eurasian land mass and central Asia.

In the third part of the document more specific proposals were offered for “territorial adjustments within these spheres of influence.”

• In the Pacific Japan would agree to withdraw from Guam, Wake Island, and the Philippines, However, the document demanded that the U.S. must recognize Philippines’ independence and remove any and all military presence from that island nation for the foreseeable future.
  
  
• In Asia Japan agreed to withdraw from Hong Kong and from Singapore on the condition that like the Philippines the U.K. must agree to remove all army and naval assets from both cities.
  
  
• The U.S. and the U.K. would also agree not to further interfere either economically or militarily with Japan’s “legitimate concerns” in China. Likewise Japan would agree not to interfere either economically or militarily with the U.K.s legitimate concerns in India. (This was an implied threat by Japan that she would indeed interfere by inciting rebellion in that colony if the U.K. refused.)
  
  
• Italy would agree to return the Italian colony of Abyssinia to the sovereignty of the Ethiopian government (Mussolini hated doing this but the British had liberated most of the nation anyway so he felt he wasn’t losing that much other than some prestige.). It would however keep territories it had acquired in the “former” nation of Yugoslavia and its other colonies in the Mediterranean area including Libya.
  
  
• Germany would retain all of the Ukraine and Byelorussia as well as its legitimate “sphere of influence” in Eastern Europe. As a concession however it would agree to withdraw from most of occupied France within a two year time table. However Germany would demand it retain the Alsace-Lorrain regions and demand total demilitarization of the area from the Rhine to the Seine River for the foreseeable future. The Netherlands, Belgium, and Luxembourg would also remain German Protectorates.
  
  
• The U.K. would in addition to having Singapore and Hong Kong returned would retain its colonies in Africa, including Egypt. However the Suez Canal would fall under “international control” in the future.
  

In the fourth and final part of the document Tojo outlined more long-range plans for a more permanent peace which included the following.

• The formation of a much more effective international body made up of the six major world powers (U.S., U.S.S.R., U.K., Japan, Germany, and Italy). This World Peace Council would settle disputes between themselves and mediate between the “lesser nations.”
  
  
• A naval conference was to be held after the war establishing “new reasonable naval limits” for all superpowers.
  
  
• Of course discussions of exchange of prisoners and reparations would also be held after an end to hostilities and an agreement to the “new world realities.”

The Tojo Proposal would be relayed to the respective state departments in Washington, London, and Moscow by the various embassies. Within two days a response agreed upon by all the Allied nations would be sent back via the embassy in Turkey and transmitted to the Japanese ambassador.

To Prime Minister Hideki Tojo​

From: President Franklin Roosevelt, Prime Minister Winston Churchill, and Premier Josef Stalin

Regarding your proposal, our answer is – NO!​

 

[Pelranius]

I'm surprised FDR, Churchill and Uncle Joe didn't die of laughter after reading that proposal.

 

[Geon]

Pelranius

I agree with your assessment.

I'm surprised FDR, Churchill and Uncle Joe didn't die of laughter after reading that proposal.

However, the Japanese were trying to be clever here. Note what they were doing.

1. In the preamble the Japanese are playing to the British public - if the documents are released or leak they hope that this statement will strike a chord with the British public who still remember a generation that was lost in the trenches in WWI.
2. In part 2 the Japanese are trying to split the Alliance in two ways.
   1. They totally refuse to acknowledge France as a major power
   2. They are practically offering Russia all of Persia (Iran) as a consolation prize for the war in exchange for what she will loose.
3. They are giving the Filipinos their fondest dream - namely independence in exchange for getting rid of the American military presence on the islands.
4. France would despite not being mentioned as part of the "Big Six" get back almost all of its territory including Paris.

Of course from the Allied side this looks ridiculous to the Allies, but from the Japanese perspective this is an honest yet cunning attempt to split the alliance make a deal and end the war.

 

[Geon]

The Filipino Freedom Brigades (FFB)

The Tojo peace plan was broadcast among the Filipino people by radio from Japan proclaiming that a Japanese victory would mean freedom from their “western masters.” However, most Filipinos were not fooled by this bit of propaganda. They had already seen how “benevolent” their new Japanese masters were.

Those who knew better regarding the “peace plan” had realized that if Japan won it was more likely that if the western powers agreed to the plan the Philippines would become like Manchuria, a puppet state ruled from Tokyo. The population as a whole wanted no part of this.

But there were some who saw in the offer a chance for Filipino independence and decided collaboration might be a viable option after all.

This was what the Japanese had been counting on and so was born the Filipino Freedom Brigades. The Brigades would be manned by Filipinos under the “tutelage” of Japanese officers. The plan was to build a Filipino based defense force that would supplement the Japanese forces facing the Allies when/if they landed to retake the islands and aid in maintaining order on the islands in the interim.

The brigades were given second-hand rifles and artillery pieces and would receive rigorous training in these weapons.

In all it is estimated over 13,000 Filipinos joined the Freedom Brigades with visions of an independent Philippines constantly being painted for them by their Japanese officers.

But the reality of their decisions soon came home to them with a vengeance. First, the men in these brigades quickly discovered how brutal training by the Japanese could be. Beatings and whippings could occur for the most minor infraction of the rules.

A more serious problem was the attitude of their countrymen toward the members of these brigades. For the most part the majority of the population of the Philippines had a simple word for those who joined these brigades – traitors.

If the Japanese were reviled by the majority of the Filipino population then those who joined the Filipino Freedom Brigades faced a whole different level of loathing. Most were disowned by their families. Many were targeted for violence when they were off duty. While there is no official count it is estimated over 250 of those in these brigades were murdered, in many cases by relatives in their own families.

And this was just private family vendettas! The Filipino guerilla groups hiding out in the hills were even more unforgiving of those individuals who joined these brigades. One of the first assignments for these brigades were simple peace keeping duties in areas formerly patrolled by the Japanese thus freeing up those Japanese units for other duties. Frequently the brigades would arrest and interrogate – with the “assistance” of a Japanese officer – suspected guerillas, usually using torture to attain information.

The Filipino guerilla groups made the brigades primary targets in many of their attacks. Between sniper attacks, bombings, and kidnappings in addition to the isolation the members of the Brigades experienced from their own countrymen the life of a Freedom Brigade soldier became a nightmare.

Several in the brigades were kidnaped as indicated by the guerillas. And the reports of what happened to those poor individuals once they started filtering back into the training camps were enough to cause many members of the Brigades to rethink their decisions.

By the end of 1943 there would be a defection of over 1,041 members of the brigades to the guerillas. Although there is no firm data on how many of that number were actually accepted by the guerillas or were killed as traitors.

One thing was clear. By the time of the liberation of the Philippines the Filipino guerillas would have very complete lists on who was in the freedom brigades. And they would be ready to show those who joined these brigades just what the cost of collaboration would be.

 

[Geon]

In this section I hope I partially and briefly answer some of the ideas brought up recently in the thread on the Japanese invasion of Darwin.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Aftermath of the Tojo Peace Offer

It was 9 P.M. in Tokyo on January 12, 1943.

At his desk in his Tokyo office Prime Minister Hideki Tojo looked once more at the response of the western powers to his peace offer. Perhaps if I stare hard enough at it the ‘No” will turn to a ‘Yes” he ruefully thought to himself and put the note aside.

The peace proposal had seemed a reasonable one to Tojo at the time it was written. The Allies would regain lost territory in Pacific in return for acknowledging Japanese hegemony there. The plan was comprehensive allowing all of the participants in the war to step away from the table each able to claim a level of victory.

But Yamamoto had been right…he had been right all along. The humiliating defeat at Pearl Harbor plus the disasters of the Doolittle Raid and Midway had only hardened American resolve. The Americans will not stop until their ships have entered Tokyo Bay and their planes have reduced Japan to rubble, thought Tojo.

Worse, the Russian refusal of the plan also showed that sooner or later Japan would be at war with its old enemy again. Perhaps not now, not while the Russians were still fighting for their lives against the Germans. But once their score with Nazi Germany was settled Tojo had no doubt they would be turning their attention eastward.

Tojo got up and walked over to the huge world map in his office. Tiny gold flags were stuck into the areas now occupied by Japan. She ruled one of the largest empires now on Earth, even if most of that empire was ocean!

The problem now was holding onto this empire.

Like Yamamoto, several ideas by various army generals had been considered and dismissed because of their impracticality. With New Guinea now secured some generals in the Imperial Japanese Army had called for a “limited” invasion of Australia, specifically taking Darwin and setting up a perimeter going approximately 100 miles inland, then securing that perimeter.

But Tojo knew that the military realities did not allow even for such a “modest” plan as this. First it would require more troops then the army could spare at the moment. Right now the Japanese army was stretched to its breaking point as were its supply lines. There were no troops available for an Australian offensive.

The good news was that the supply lines to Japan’s various holdings remained open – for now – despite harassing attacks by the Wasp task force group and U.S. submarines. Thus far since the war began the U.S.N. was estimated to have lost 30 submarines in the Pacific theater. The IJN had lost 35 attempting to interdict allied shipping.

The problem was that within a matter of weeks the U.S. could make up the loss of those 30 subs with ease, not so the Japanese Navy.

For now there was a balance in the Pacific, but Tojo knew that would not last. Sooner or later the Americans would first attain parity and then superiority with the number of carriers in the Pacific and then it would only be a matter of time.

Time was the one thing the Japanese needed to purchase. The longer they held out, Tojo believed, the more likely that the Americans might be willing to come to the negotiating table.

As a result Tojo was now considering a plan made up from several different ideas offered to him. Hopefully such a plan would drag out the war long enough so that the Allies would agree to peace talks.

The plan included:

1. A submarine screen set up within 100 miles around Hawaii. Purpose: to sink any new warships that might come from the U.S. mainland, particularly new carriers.
   1. Japanese and Germany submarines were already working together in the Atlantic. Now Tojo was hoping that he could convince the Germans to release some of their submarines into the Pacific to aid in sinking American warships and supply vessels.
2. Reinforce major and likely points of invasion on the perimeter with coastal defenses. The use of slave labor both P.O.W’s and labor from occupied territories would be useful here.
3. Rush to completion the three carriers presently being rebuilt or refitted as carriers in Japanese shipyards. (i.e. the Chitose, the Amagi, and the Shinano)
   
4. Transfer more tactical naval bombers to Port Moresby to make the raids on Darwin more effective. It was time to change from harassment to full-fledged interdiction to slow any attempt to retake New Guinea.
   
5. A modified version of the Plan U-Go presented by Lieutenant General Masakasu Kawabe. A limited invasion of India would cut supply lines to Burma and China hopefully bringing a speedy end to the war in China. The modified version would have the attack come in conjunction with an uprising that was being planned at this moment in India by Subhas Chandra Bose. Several members of the Azad Hindi movement headed by Bose were at this moment being trained in guerilla tactics in Japan. If all went well, an attack on western India combined with the Bose uprising might just knock the British out of the Pacific out of the war. The plan was set to begin in April of 1943.
   
6. Finally, a plan was in the works once the war in China was finished for a limited invasion of Russia with the purpose specifically of taking Vladivostok and the Pacific coastal areas of the Soviet Union. This however would not be ready for another year depending on how well the rest of the plan worked.

Tojo knew the time this last “year of luck” as many of his naval commanders had called it was now coming to an end. Whether the Japanese armed forces could capitalize on it in the coming year remained to be seen.

 

[CANMAN]

Wonder how the USN plans to strike back.

 

[Geon]

Wonder how the USN plans to strike back.

I will be getting back to this TL and the U.S. response shortly. One hint I will drop - namely a certain Army general is going to be very apoplectic when he discovers he's not going to get his way.

 

[Geon]

First of all I want to thank everyone who critiqued this TL for the past few months. Unfortunately as I reviewed what I wanted to do in this TL I realized that what I had to write would not be on the same level as Calbear or others who have written of the Pacific War. So, let me just finish this off and give you an idea what I had planned to write for the future.

• First how do these events affect the war in Europe? Not much. To be honest I could see a delay of a few months for Torch and Husky as needed men and materials are delayed in arriving in Europe but I do not see the war in Europe being drastically changed even by a disastrous Pearl Harbor/Midway event like I described here.
• In the Pacific MacArthur does not get his grand moment of striding ashore on Luzon and claim "I have returned." Rather, he is forced to accept Nimitz plan which bypasses the Philippines entirely and allows them to "starve on the vine."
• In the Pacific War theater there is no one "decisive battle" rather there are smaller naval engagements that end up slowly whittling down the IJN. Tojo is reluctant to commit all of the IJN to one massive blow against the Americans choosing instead to a number of smaller "hit and run" battles. Thus, the Pacific Theater is a bloody game of "hide and seek" with both fleets suffering casualties.
• The first land thrust in the war is the retaking of New Guinea. From there the Americans pretty much follow OTL except they go after Taiwan instead of the Philippines. I would see Iwo Jima falling in mid 1945 and Okinawa in November following the typhoon. Both will be bloody messes for both sides.
• Expect the kamikazes to make their debut earlier as the Japanese realize just how determined the Americans are and attempt to force the Americans to the peace table by inflicting heavy casualties. Admiral Yamamoto resigns his post when these tactics are ordered.
• The Manhattan Project is completed on schedule but America has an extra year to prepare to use them. Not two but three bombs are dropped on Japan - namely on Hiroshima, Nagasaki, and Kokura in that order.
• The Soviets invade Manchuria on schedule in 1945 and end up grabbing all of the Korean peninsula and Manchuria. Stalin adds these territories to the U.S.S.R. as well as several thousand slave laborers (Japanese P.OW.s who will never see home again).
• Japan surrenders unconditionally in May of 1946. Tojo successfully commits suicide before the surrender is signed. Yamamoto acts as one of the signers at the surrender ceremony.
• As may be guessed from what was indicated above and in the TL Yamamoto survives World War II and is able to live in relative peace for the rest of his life. His status I think would be the same as that of Rommel had he survived the war.
• MacArthur's self cultivated "legend" never reaches anything like it did in our TL. He is seen more as a footnote in the history of the Pacific War then anything else.
• I had also intended for Captain McVey of the Indianapolis to retire a hero during a battle that helps break the submarine blockade around Hawaii. The Indianapolis still sinks. But this time they are near Hawaii and the navy answers the last distress call of the ship. While about 100 men go down with the ship you don't have the absolute horror that occurred in OTL to the Indianapolis crew, not to mention the complete travesty of justice that occurred later to Capt. McVey. The good captain dies of cancer in 1964 surrounded by friends and well-wishers and is buried in Arlington with the honors befitting a hero.

In any case I hope you have enjoyed this look at a worst-case scenario for the USN in WWII. I've got some other projects in mind so please stay tuned!

 

[Michel Van]

hi Geon,
i think you made great job with this TL about Pacific War Theater under Worst condition for USA

you had already deal with a hellish European War Theater in the excellent "How silent fall the Cherry Blossoms"
who don't know it here: https://www.alternatehistory.com/wiki/doku.php?id=timelines:how_silent_fall_the_cherry_blossoms

 

[Geon]

hi Geon,
i think you made great job with this TL about Pacific War Theater under Worst condition for USA

you had already deal with a hellish European War Theater in the excellent "How silent fall the Cherry Blossoms"
who don't know it here: https://www.alternatehistory.com/wiki/doku.php?id=timelines:how_silent_fall_the_cherry_blossoms

Thank you Michel. If I can add one more thing. After looking over my post entitled "Aftermath of the Tojo Peace Offer" I realized that items 5 and 6 on Japan's future war plans list were pretty much ASB. Japan definitely did not have the manpower to launch any further offensives on top of what it already had. Their manpower reserves were already strained to their elastic limit.