But, again, I don't want to just air grievances. If Italy's neutral, then fine. I'm also interested in what that neutrality means for them anyway, mostly for that affects its colonial ambitions and relations with other countries. Does a neutral Italy mean that they and Austria-Hungary are now friends? Fat chance, but hey. What about relations with the Ottomans - they did fight a war with them over Libya OTL in 1911. Does that mean the Italians can take Ethiopia without any repercussions? Does a neutral Italy mean its neutrality is ensured through being armed?
If Italy chose neutrality, then they would probably focus more on Ethiopia and probably successfully colonize it, compared to OTL. Relations between Austria-Hungary, Ottoman Empire, and Italy would be polite but there would lingering tension. As long as neither country makes the first strike, then all is calm.
Right, so, I don't know what you're referring to here. Can you explain a bit more? Was this something the Italians and the Vatican were trying to negotiate over in the aftermath of unification or just before the Great War? I don't personally know a lot about the details of the Vatican's relationship with the rest of Italy post unification other than the fact that the Popes weren't happy that Italy was a country for a time. What's this about regaining territory?
Ever since the Kingdom of Italy conquered the Papal States, the Pope from Pius IX to Pius XI refused to recognize it and described themselves as "Prisoners of the Vatican". The newly formed Italian government passed the Law of Guarantees on May 13th, 1871, that gave the Pope status as a sovereign person with honors and privileges, free movement throughout all of Italy, free use of any church in Italy, an annual payment by the Italian government, and to be given control of all territory within the Leonine City in Rome. However, the law could be changed and abolished at anytime by the same government, thus not granting the Pope full independence.
It wasn't until February 11th, 1929, that the Lateran Treaty was made by representatives of the Italian government and the Holy See that ended the conflict. The Holy See would acknowledge the Kingdom of Italy in return for the Pope to be given full independence, be given control of Vatican City and other extraterritorial buildings, be given financial compensation, and remain neutral in international relations unless requested to be a mediator by all parties.
Mussolini did this not because he truly cared about the Church, but because it was a way to look politically attractive to the Italian Catholic population. Without Mussolini in TL-191, then the Roman Question is still not solved unless whoever is the prime minister does a similar treaty with the Holy See, with or without ulterior motives by the Italian government.
Right, so, Pius XI. Pope from 1922 to 1939. In TL-191 that's just two years before the outbreak of the Second Great War.
This guy looks interesting to be honest. With events changed up in TL-191 he could actually be rather intriguing character in the stories.
So from what I can gather this pope was pretty active politically speaking. The Lateran Treaty you mention relates to the lingering hostility the Papacy and Italian Government had after the seizure of the Papal States by the Kingdom of Italy in 1870, which further unified Italy by annexing the Pope's lands and effectively taking away his status as a sovereign ruler of a state. Long story short the Papacy held an intense grudge for having its lands "stolen" and pretty much never let Italy live it down, refusing to recognize that's its lands now belonged to Italy. Subsequent popes carried on that grudge. For a state that preaches the forgiveness of enemies they really didn't live up to that!
It's not a question of forgiveness. The Popes were more than willing to forgive, but the Italian government was without remorse. It is important for the Pope to not be under control of a foreign government in order to freely function. Even to this day, the Pope is both a
Secular Ruler of Vatican City (King) and a
Spiritual Leader of the Holy See (Bishop of Rome).
Side note - I read up more on Pius XI and his international relations with France, Germany, and Spain. Apparently he openly criticized Action Francaise and said that it was "folly for the French Catholic Church to continue to tie its fortunes to the unlikely dream of a monarchist restoration" in France. Well, now that the monarchy is back in France in TL-191, what would Pius XI have to say about that?
Pius XI apparently also protested against Fascists and Communists in our timeline, given that both ideologies were firmly entrenched in several countries - I think it was on the basis of how these groups treated the Church or religion in their countries. With the changes in TL-191 made there are no Nazis or Italian Fascists or Russian Communists in power - however, that doesn't mean they don't exist and didn't rise up elsewhere. France and Great Britain have their own nationalists now with distinctly fascists undertones and Communists are active the world over.
Given Pius XI's hostility toward both groups I think he might not like the rise of revaunchist nationalists in France and Britain and would especially hate the communists still active in other parts of Europe.
Pius XI would more than likely be very concerned about the successful re-installation of the Kingdom of France. Just like in OTL, he would be very critical of Fascism, even if he at first showed some sympathy at the idea of the state supporting Catholicism. Britain would be on his radar and make similar criticisms.
On Fascism:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Non_abbiamo_bisogno
On Communism:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quadragesimo_anno &
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rerum_novarum
Now, I believe its when we get to North America and Russia that things start to get a bit complicated and messy for Pius XI. As a pope during the Inter-War years in TL-191, roughly from 1922-1939, he'd see the rise of Jake Featherston and the Freedom Party, The Mexican Civil War, and the on-going fight of Confederates Whites persecuting Confederate Blacks in the run up to the Population Reduction sweeps, with Confederate Blacks "turning red" as a means to fight back. He would also see the reign of Tsar Mihkail II in Russia, a man that potentially presided over the defeat of the communists in Russia, but also ordered pogroms against Jews in Russia.
Perhaps in these countries he'd feel a bit conflicted. In our time line I think he was sympathetic to the social and racial inequality that Black Americans experienced in the US due to the efforts of Mother Katherine Drexel. He also hated communism. Perhaps his views on the Confederacy and the United States would be a bit more nuanced? Protesting against the treatment of Blacks in the Confederacy, but urging them not to turn to communism in order to fight back, unable to convince the US to do anything about it due to the two countries having an intense rivalry?
What do you all think?
Your are correct in saying that he would feel more conflicted in handling both the Confederacy and the United States. Everything that you said in this quote is very plausible.
On Racism and Anti-Semitism:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pope_Pius_XI#Humani_generis_unitas &
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Humani_generis_unitas
His successor Pius XII is in the 3rd book of Settling Accounts "The Grapple". Pius XII is actually criticized for not condemning the pogroms in Russia, the genocide of Armenians in the Ottoman Empire, and the Population Reductions in the Confederacy.
With all due respect to Turtledove, this line in the books
really ticked me off to no end. Turtledove is a very opinionated person (Have you read his Twitter?), but he should know better as a historian. Contrary to popular belief, Pius XII did save Jews to the best of his ability. Had there been a strong public rebuke, he would have risked increasing lethal retaliation from Nazi Germany and Fascist Italy to both the Jews and to himself in OTL.
I suppose that in TL-191, Pius XII does the same thing by working undercover with the laity, hierarchy, and other people in the North American continent to try and save as many Confederate Blacks as possible, while doing the same thing with the Armenians in the Ottoman Empire and the Jews in Russia/France/Europe, etc.
Side note: Read up on Benedict XV and his Plan for peace during the First World War and how it may have influenced the war in TL-191. He also showed concern for the Armenians.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pope_Benedict_XV#Peace_efforts
Another side note: Given that the Popes condemned socialism, I wonder how they viewed the Socialist Party of the United States and when Al Smith became the first Catholic U.S. President. Based on what little I've read, they were supportive of the idea of worker's rights, but not everything else.