scotuswatch.org
January 14, 2019
Retirement Predictor: Second Half 2018-19 Term
With Sam Seaborn set to take office in less than one week, we figured it was time to update our forecasts of the nine justices of the Supreme Court. With the first Democratic president since 2011, you can be sure that some justices will be more open to leaving the bench.
Chief Justice Evelyn Baker Lang
Age: 71
Appointed by: Bartlet, 2004
Wing: Liberal
Will Sam Seaborn be replacing the first female Chief Justice in the same year she swears him in? Unlikely, we say.
Baker Lang is still sharp at 71, and with the Senate still in Republican hands, she knows that whoever will replace her will be to her right. Even if the Democrats retake the Senate in 2020, she might decide to stay put.
Associate Justice Jackson Hoyt
Age: 58
Appointed by: Lassiter, 1995
Wing: Conservative
Owen Lassiter's boy wonder is now heading towards sixty and is now the most senior associate justice.
He's probably glad that he will be swearing in Jack Hunter on the 20th instead of Franklin Hollis, and even if it were Henry Shallick taking the presidential oath instead, it would be unthinkable that Hoyt will retire anytime soon. He's probably going to break Joseph Crouch's record for longest Supreme Court tenure.
Associate Justice Rachel Carmine
Age: 80
Appointed by: Lassiter, 1998
Wing: Moderate (left-leaning)
The only justice above the national life expectancy (78), Carmine is probably the best bet we have for a retirement this term.
The Hawaii native is also the only sitting justice to have been born in a territory (Hawaii gained statehood when she was in college), and her age is starting to show, appearing in a sling for oral arguments in November after falling in her home.
It's unknown exactly what legal qualities she would like for a successor, but we can assume she's looking more and more at retirement after Seaborn was declared the winner in November.
Associate Justice Roberto Mendoza
Age: 73
Appointed by: Bartlet, 2000
Wing: Liberal
If he were anyone but the no-nonsense liberal of the court, Justice Mendoza would normally be looked at seriously as a possible retiree in the next term.
But Mendoza has publicly said that he would only look into stepping down before his 75th birthday in 2020 if his health holds, and by all appearances it has. He may walk with a cane all the time now (owing to age and the leg injury he sustained in his previous career as a New York City police officer), but he's still spry and ready to give the Seaborn administration some victories in the high court.
Associate Justice Christopher Mulready
Age: 63
Appointed by: Bartlet, 2004
Wing: Conservative
In Democratic circles, Christopher Mulready's appointment by Jed Bartlet is frequently considered to have been a devil's bargain. On one hand, they got a true liberal to succeed Roy Ashland and the first female chief justice. On the other, though, it led to Mulready becoming the intellectual anchor of the conservative bloc that has emerged as a result of the Walken presidency.
With a Democrat in the White House and a few years before he can even draw Social Security (which presumably, he would have ruled against if he had been on the court in the 1930s), Justice Mulready isn't going anywhere.
Associate Justice Edward Appleton
Age: 62
Appointed by: Santos, 2010
Wing: Moderate
The only Santos appointee to the court, Appleton is the only true moderate justice, having moved to the left after being part of the moderate-right bloc in the first few terms after his appointment.
While he's going to turn 63 in a few days, Justice Appleton is probably going to be on the court for another dozen years at least even if this is the first opportunity he'll have to have his replacement be someone close to his ideological outlook.
Associate Justice Judi Rand
Age: 67
Appointed by: Walken, 2012
Wing: Moderate (right-leaning)
Ever since the appointment of Howard Weston two years ago, Rand has become the swing justice. She's clearly relishing her status as the most-coveted vote in most tight decisions, and has seen an increase the number of decisions she's authored since Weston's arrival.
The odds she's going to retire in the next four-to-eight years are laughably small.
Associate Justice Howard Weston
Age: 61
Appointed by: Walken, 2016
Wing: Conservative
The third member of the solid conservatives, Weston has shifted the court to the right and doesn't seem to mind having given up his Senate seat to do so.
Even if the Republicans unseat Seaborn in 2022 and hold the White House for eight years after, don't expect Howard Weston to go anywhere.
Associate Justice Joe Quincy
Age: 49
Appointed by: Walken, 2017
Wing: Conservative*
The newest justice on the court, Justice Quincy's not firmly established where his ideology even is since he's only had about one full term's worth of rulings. He's clearly on the conservative side, but time will tell if he's a staunch conservative or is a conservative-leaning moderate in the Rand mold.
Either way, we're going to wait another 20 years before even thinking that Quincy will step down.
A helpful graphic of the current court's ideology
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Casting (previously established)
Evelyn Baker Lang: Glenn Close
Jackson Hurt: William Hurt
Rachel Carmine: Dawn Wells
Roberto Mendoza: Edward James Olmos
Christopher Mulready: William Fichtner
Edward Appleton: Kevin Costner
Judi Rand: Dianne Wiest
Howard Weston: Thomas Gibson
Joe Quincy: Matthew Perry