what if Germany captured Leningrad?

[thaddeus]

what if Germany captured Leningrad in 1941 or early 1942? my own POD would be a more comprehensive naval campaign, which historically had the Soviet Baltic fleet bottled up in Estonia, but was unable to prevent some numbers from reaching Leningrad https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soviet_evacuation_of_Tallinn

 

[hzn5pk]

Best case scenario for Germans

Capture Leningrad in '41, are in a better defensive position in North to fend off Russian winter 41/42 offensive.

Germans isolate Murmansk in 42 but cannot do the same for Arcangel.

Ultimately, Germans do better on east front until 1944 When the Soviets are ready for offensive action.

The American/British steam roller comes into play in 1943.

Germany is crushed as OTL, just make it to 1946.

East/West line is shifted to East

Anyway you look at it, the Allies will be too strong industrially and have the will power to build up and defeat Germans.

 

[NORGCO]

Best case scenario for Germans

Capture Leningrad in '41, are in a better defensive position in North to fend off Russian winter 41/42 offensive.

Germans isolate Murmansk in 42 but cannot do the same for Arcangel.

Ultimately, Germans do better on east front until 1944 When the Soviets are ready for offensive action.

The American/British steam roller comes into play in 1943.

Germany is crushed as OTL, just make it to 1946.

East/West line is shifted to East

Anyway you look at it, the Allies will be too strong industrially and have the will power to build up and defeat Germans.

Depending on when the city fell, and how long it took to get the port back in operation this would also improve German logistics. Supply trains, trucks etc starting that much further east would have to help, but WHEN would seem rather important. A major improvement in front line unit supply situations in late '41 would potentially be more important than when the big effort had shifted to Stalingrad and points South anyway...

 

[Kotka]

Hitler would've thrown a great party at the Astoria Hotel.
In OTL he even printed the invitations for it.

 

[Curtain Jerker]

Shostakovich is (probably) renaming his symphony named after the town.

 

[Gudestein]

Guess tge most important follow up question is when?
In time to send forces south for an earlier typhoon?
One of my favorite questions when wiking and obsessed nuker starts discussing is what would happen if a typhoon mark 1 and the Kiev encirclement happened at the same time. The answer is that the Germans were too weak, but an early fall of Leningrad might change this.

 

[thaddeus]

my speculation was for Leningrad being captured (or surrounded to the point resupply efforts halted?) by the end of 1941 or first quarter or so of 1942. my OWN speculation is for greater destruction of Soviet navy vessels and personnel being evacuated there since that requires the fewest changes to other events of the land campaign, now whether that would be enough of a change open to opinion?

 

[thaddeus]

Best case scenario for Germans

Capture Leningrad in '41, are in a better defensive position in North to fend off Russian winter 41/42 offensive.

Germans isolate Murmansk in 42 but cannot do the same for Arcangel.

if they could capture Leningrad a renewed push on Murmansk would be warranted, the entire Kola Peninsula placed under Finland?

not sure the usefulness of Arkhangelsk with the likely influx of u-boats?

 

[History Learner]

if they could capture Leningrad a renewed push on Murmansk would be warranted, the entire Kola Peninsula placed under Finland?

not sure the usefulness of Arkhangelsk with the likely influx of u-boats?

If Leningrad falls the Finns and Germans will cut the Murmansk Railway in early 1942, pretty much shutting down the Northern route for Lend Lease until late 1943 when the capacity upgrades for Arkhangelsk are completed. Large formations of Germans are freed up for duty elsewhere, which probably will prove decisive for Case Blau.

 

[Clandango]

Hitler would've thrown a great party at the Astoria Hotel.
In OTL he even printed the invitations for it.

This alone would have had potential for massive changes. Perhaps he doesn't go through with his plan (maybe it had only been made later?) about destroying the city completely, like planned for Warsaw and Moscow. I think it might have been put in the zone Finland was supposed to get? If they don't fight much against the Soviets, then Hitler might want to keep it for himself, playing up the ties of the land to the swedes, Varangians, Teutonic Knights, Danes, and the long line of German(ish) Czars. Heck, the original name for the city was Dutch! Feeding everyone would be an issue, and massacring the population, expelling them, or starving them would make it to Finnish lines and across diplomatic channels across Europe and the Americas. Lots of laborers here, at least. And plenty of factories. Might be that there is a policy of checking who might be given the title of Ingrian or Novgorodian or something like that. The Russians had, since 1920, been ethnically cleansing the area of Finns, Karelians, Estonians, Ingrians, and various other Finnic groups, but they apparently didn't do much to the Izhorians. Though that is mostly because I can't find much info on them, as they were pretty wrecked by the IOTL invasion fo the Germans and the mass starvation. Goering is going to love the city, and there is massive amounts of looting to be done with art.

 

[James Ricker]

Stalin would probably have valuable and irreplaceable people shot.

 

[A Piece of History]

Hitler will have it burned to the ground and it's people will be murdered en-masse.

 

[Clandango]

Hitler will have it burned to the ground and it's people will be murdered en-masse.

Don't be ridiculous. Too visible. Read somewhere the siege of the city was in order to make veryone starve, but perhaps that was just an excuse for having the German army attack an area where a million people would fight to the death. Actually, I wonder if Hitler wouldn't just have a lot of people moved around, having the city turned into winter quarters for the army. Plenty of housing there. I imagine a lot of quarantines to limit people to overcrowded areas to starve, freeze, etc would work. Just need to turn off utilities. Innretrospect, maybe they would actually destroy all the historical buildings, despite my saying they wouldn't if they got there fast. The Baroque architecture was pretty French inspired. Still, places like the Hermitage had plenty of German art (it started ffrom stuff Catherine the Great bought form a Berlin art dealer) so I can see a lot of the interior of palaces, at least those that hadn't been thoroughly looted by Bolsheviks, revolutionaries, and looters, to be stripped down or dismantled, being used for museums across Germany.


What I think would be fun is some massive set of revolts or mutinies in order to bring the greater Ingria area free of the Soviets. Mainly as it would lead to some annoyance by the Axis and others on whatever to do with it, as invading it would make the Germans look like they weren't doing all of this as a crusade to save everyone from communists. Still, not a great loss for Russia if there was a state set up that same to claim or take the old territory of the Novgorod Republic. Mostly places in the north anyways. Part of the same reason why Hitler was fine with all of Karelia going to Finland, and why Himmler was intent upon pressuring Finland into taking land in northern Sweden and Norway (The Finns declined, even when offered to just have it handed to them). The land was pretty cold and wouldn't be of much use to themselves.

 

[Hades]

Berlin would end up eating a nuke instead of Hiroshima.

 

[Clandango]

Berlin would end up eating a nuke instead of Hiroshima.

So you believe this would extend the war long enough for that? Also, I read that part of the reason for Hitler's declaration of war on the US was for propoganda reasons, as there was a big speech scheduled long in advance. It was supposed to be for the non-existent triumphs of the previous year in the East after the war started bogging down. If Leningrad was grabbed at the right time... might not make a difference, though.

 

[thaddeus]

If Leningrad falls the Finns and Germans will cut the Murmansk Railway in early 1942, pretty much shutting down the Northern route for Lend Lease until late 1943 when the capacity upgrades for Arkhangelsk are completed. Large formations of Germans are freed up for duty elsewhere, which probably will prove decisive for Case Blau.

what is appealing target in the north other than Moscow? and what is the logical geographical defensive line(s) surrounding Leningrad? (past the Volkhov River)

if they had steady supply system operating on the Baltic they might choose to consolidate that region, historically during their siege of the city they drained forces away but here it would be an important artery for them?

 

[Hvalrossen]

Would there be fewer civilian deaths ATL then compared to OTL?

 

[anotherlurker]

Even if the Germans do better in the East, in the West there'll be a landing and they'll have to redeploy which enables the Soviets to push against them, after all you cant fight in the East when Germany is occupied, the East West divide ends up more or less as OTL at around OTL time.

 

[Gillan1220]

With the capture of Leningrad, the Red Army suffers at least temporarily a huge drop in morale since Leningrad was where the October Revolution occurred. However, they would most likely regroup for the defense of Moscow. Although this may imply Stalingrad may follow as OTL.

 

[Johnrankins]

With the capture of Leningrad, the Red Army suffers at least temporarily a huge drop in morale since Leningrad was where the October Revolution occurred. However, they would most likely regroup for the defense of Moscow. Although this may imply Stalingrad may follow as OTL.

Some? Yes Huge? No . The Russians would be looking for revenge. Quite a few cities fell by this time. I doubt the average peasant knew or cared where the October Revolution occurred.