Your alternate history challenge, should you choose to accept it, is to have the Germans still be defeated after the Battle of Stalingrad (it is not obligatory to be an unconditional surrender, however) yet have the Soviets being unable or unwilling to take anything beyond rightful USSR lands, meaning they don't take Poland or anything beyond.
AHC: With a POD no earlier than the German Stalingrad defeat, allies win WW2 with no iron curtain
- Thread starter Anti-GrammarNazi
- Start date
What is "rightful USSR lands"? A case could be made that all territory of the Russian Empire/RSFSR pre-Brest-Litovsk was "rightfully" part of the Union, which puts Congress Poland inside of the Union...
I suppose "unable" also includes the Wallies liberating Eastern Europe and the Balkans before the Soviets get there?
Can we use multiple PODs or only one with the butterfly effects associated?
I can't really study that one in details, but I guess that the Wallies could save time and resources not invading mainland Italy and focusing on either France or the Balkans instead (a successful naval invasion in the latter sounds unlikely though for many reasons).
A successful 1943 Overlord is probably pushing it but saving naval vessels and in some cases experienced divisions that would have been used for Italy could give more opportunities for 1944.
Can we use multiple PODs or only one with the butterfly effects associated?
I can't really study that one in details, but I guess that the Wallies could save time and resources not invading mainland Italy and focusing on either France or the Balkans instead (a successful naval invasion in the latter sounds unlikely though for many reasons).
A successful 1943 Overlord is probably pushing it but saving naval vessels and in some cases experienced divisions that would have been used for Italy could give more opportunities for 1944.
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Perhaps some combination of the following:
1: a Titowank (whatever that means) resulting in Yugoslav partisans liberating not only Yugoslavia but also Albania and much of Bulgaria. Perhaps Bulgaria joins the Union; otherwise they are liberated with a Tito-friendly, rather than Stalin-friendly, government.
2: The Red Army intervenes in the Warsaw Uprising, gambling that it will mean increased support for the Polish Communist Party after the war, resulting in the Polish Republic being restored.
This eliminates all of the Soviet gains except for Romania. Unfortunately, I really have no idea how to prevent Romania from falling to Russian influence...perhaps Stalin trades it to the West in exchange for...what?
I am going to count the Baltics as "rightful Soviet territory" given that they were *technically* part of the Russian Empire and RSFSR for a brief period; if you want to actually save them the POD probably has to be pre-WWII since they were de facto annexed in '40.
1: a Titowank (whatever that means) resulting in Yugoslav partisans liberating not only Yugoslavia but also Albania and much of Bulgaria. Perhaps Bulgaria joins the Union; otherwise they are liberated with a Tito-friendly, rather than Stalin-friendly, government.
2: The Red Army intervenes in the Warsaw Uprising, gambling that it will mean increased support for the Polish Communist Party after the war, resulting in the Polish Republic being restored.
This eliminates all of the Soviet gains except for Romania. Unfortunately, I really have no idea how to prevent Romania from falling to Russian influence...perhaps Stalin trades it to the West in exchange for...what?
I am going to count the Baltics as "rightful Soviet territory" given that they were *technically* part of the Russian Empire and RSFSR for a brief period; if you want to actually save them the POD probably has to be pre-WWII since they were de facto annexed in '40.
Hmmm. How about:
Valkyrie happens on July 20, 1944, only the coup is wildly successful and power easily transitions from the Nazis to the generals. The new leaders of Germany, realizing that A - they're going to lose the war and B - it is better for everyone (most of all them) if the WAllies take over Germany as opposed to the USSR, fight like hell in the East vs the Red Army in a stalling action and let the WAllies more or less march unopposed to Berlin and beyond.
During the "Drive to Berlin" the WAllied Italian Army sweeps north/northeast/east into Yugoslavia/Austria/Hungary/Bulgaria/Greece/Romania while the WAllied Normandy Army takes over France/the Low Countries/Denmark/Germany/Poland. The Germans put up zero resistance as everyone who can grab a gun is fighting in the east.
Germany only fights vs the USSR in OTL Belarus/Poland, then when the WAllies control everything else they surrender (to the WAllies of course).
If everything goes just right the USSR will only control the 1941 borders (includes the Baltics) and maybe half of Poland.
Implausible? Absolutely. Possible under the right circumstances? Maybe.
Valkyrie happens on July 20, 1944, only the coup is wildly successful and power easily transitions from the Nazis to the generals. The new leaders of Germany, realizing that A - they're going to lose the war and B - it is better for everyone (most of all them) if the WAllies take over Germany as opposed to the USSR, fight like hell in the East vs the Red Army in a stalling action and let the WAllies more or less march unopposed to Berlin and beyond.
During the "Drive to Berlin" the WAllied Italian Army sweeps north/northeast/east into Yugoslavia/Austria/Hungary/Bulgaria/Greece/Romania while the WAllied Normandy Army takes over France/the Low Countries/Denmark/Germany/Poland. The Germans put up zero resistance as everyone who can grab a gun is fighting in the east.
Germany only fights vs the USSR in OTL Belarus/Poland, then when the WAllies control everything else they surrender (to the WAllies of course).
If everything goes just right the USSR will only control the 1941 borders (includes the Baltics) and maybe half of Poland.
Implausible? Absolutely. Possible under the right circumstances? Maybe.
The only thing I can imagine that would prevent the Iron Curtain from falling is an Italy that abandons the Axis more totally, and somehow manages to go neutral. If they do that they can support the government in Romania with the King there against the communists. As for Poland and the rest of Europe, I have no idea.
What Curtain said above about the coup seems like it might work, but the Soviets aren't going to be happy about being double crossed by the allies, particularly given that the allies are basically collaborating with the German government. Also, the allies would probably have to offer some good terms to the new German government to get them to agree to what is basically a protracted surrender. No occupation, maintenance of Austria as part of Germany maybe, possibly Polish territory that's German majority remaining with Germany are all terms that come to mind. If the allies are willing to accept that then maybe, and I do mean MAYBE, this scenario could work.
What Curtain said above about the coup seems like it might work, but the Soviets aren't going to be happy about being double crossed by the allies, particularly given that the allies are basically collaborating with the German government. Also, the allies would probably have to offer some good terms to the new German government to get them to agree to what is basically a protracted surrender. No occupation, maintenance of Austria as part of Germany maybe, possibly Polish territory that's German majority remaining with Germany are all terms that come to mind. If the allies are willing to accept that then maybe, and I do mean MAYBE, this scenario could work.
Meeting with Darlan before torch landings convinces him to join having French navy sail from toulon and immediately join the allies. French army fight german and Italians in Tunis airport and hold. Allies land follow in forces in bizerrte and Tunis and move rapidly on Tripoli. North Africa secure by end january 1943. Italian military seeing the writing on the wall and with the blessing of the king actually plan their double cross after Tunis falls. Contact allies and tell them they wish to switch sides. This prevents unconditional surrender proclamation at Casablanca conference. Plan is set to go off when it appears allies are ready for next move. In june of 1943 They take Mussolini in a night and and using surprise and superior numbers to make up for equipment and training cripple german forces in Italy and Greece. The soldiers and officers motivated by the promise of an Italy not punished by the allies and the kings personal plea to spare the destruction that would come if Italy is a full battleground. Allied forces preparing for the invasion of sicily sail instead to northern Italian ports, and to greek ports to reinforce the Italians before the German can put together an intervention force. This allows allowed fighter cover over all of Germany rapidly decreasing the industrial and transportation network. Places ploesti refineries under air assault with escorts. Allies on the continent in force and in defensible positions with ever increasing force and air support make german officer also see writing on the wall and plan coup of their own. Christmas 1943 overthrow Hitler and make deal with allied powers. Stalin protests but not in a military situation to force the issue. War ends with russia back to it's original borders.
trurle
Banned
Less successful (close to pre-operation Soviet expectation) Operation Bagration in 1944 would be enough. IOTL, Operation Bagration had combination of limited-knowledge decisions and weather nearly all favouring the Soviets. More probable would be German front lines stabilizing around Minsk instead of Warsaw, with correspodingly less lopsided casualties. With collapse at Western front going to OTL schedule, war will end with USSR barely reclaiming its 1941 or even 1939 borders.
Italy does the whole old switcheroo in a more organized and coherent way. As a result, the Germans stabilize only north of Rome and the push is way more effective and supported, leading to a real chance at pushing the Iron Curtain eastwards.
You aren't wrong. The challenge as presented was pretty tough so I had to reach deep into my bag of tricks to pull something out that even had a small percentage chance of working. The odds of what I detailed successfully working are minuscule.
Stalin would be pissed. But there's not much he could actually do, especially once the USA shows off its shiny new toy over Hiroshima and Nagasaki.
Could the Brits somehow turn the 1941 Greek Campaign into their reentry to the continent?
Pushing up through the Balkans would be the most unpleasant thing I can imagine, but it could potentially get the Western Allies into Eastern Europe to cut off the Soviets.
Pushing up through the Balkans would be the most unpleasant thing I can imagine, but it could potentially get the Western Allies into Eastern Europe to cut off the Soviets.
I think that Barbarossa would be delayed long enough to deal with the British threat and a large deal of the Commonwealth's offensive potential is wasted in Greece/Bulgaria. However, the Brits weaken/delay the Germans enough that either 1) Barbarossa is launched too late in '41 to punch as deep into the Motherland as it did thanks to rasputitsa or 2) delayed until '42 when the Soviets are more prepared for it.
Either way, this likely results in the Iron Curtain falling further west than IOTL.
Perhaps the POD would have to be a slightly later Yugoslav coup resulting in Barbarossa going ahead on schedule, and the Yugoslav and Greek Campaigns instead being conducted on more of a shoe string budget? That would both commit the Germans to the Eastern Front and make Britain holding and then counter attacking from Greece more plausible.
Yet another....
Allied leaders determine in 1942 for a soonest invasion of NW Europe. Preparatory operations and diversions are started vs Scandinavia, French North Africa, Corsica, Crete, ect... To provide trans Atlantic cargo shipping & amphibious lift, air power & general y supply other major operations are curtailed. The two largest would be a increase of LL to he USSR during 1943, & telling MacArthur no S Pacific offensive in 1943. Postponing increases in logistics support to China. Setting aside the Aleutians offensive for another year. In other words every major increase in logistical effort of OTL for 1943 is postponed in favor of focusing the difference on NW Europe.
This has two effects: 1. it can draw German efforts off to seemingly successful peripheral areas, like Africa. the Arctic or Scandinavian front, and more offensive in the USSR. 2. The Red Army is less offensive capable & while it defeats the German offensives, it does not gain much ground either.
As the West Allied Armies grind across western Europe 1943-45 the Red Army moves at a much slower pace than OTL. Without US tanks, Studebaker trucks, Baldwin locomotives Bombardier rail wagons, ect... ect... ect... the Red Army is not much past Minsk when US operation ECLIPSE takes Berlin & the motorized Polish Army races off to Warsaw. Similarly Allied expeditionary Corps have been sent off to Prague, Budapest, Bucharest, Sofia, ect... to supervise the clean up of German forces in those nations. The Red Army reaches a western boundary somewhere between its January and December 1939 borders.
Allied leaders determine in 1942 for a soonest invasion of NW Europe. Preparatory operations and diversions are started vs Scandinavia, French North Africa, Corsica, Crete, ect... To provide trans Atlantic cargo shipping & amphibious lift, air power & general y supply other major operations are curtailed. The two largest would be a increase of LL to he USSR during 1943, & telling MacArthur no S Pacific offensive in 1943. Postponing increases in logistics support to China. Setting aside the Aleutians offensive for another year. In other words every major increase in logistical effort of OTL for 1943 is postponed in favor of focusing the difference on NW Europe.
This has two effects: 1. it can draw German efforts off to seemingly successful peripheral areas, like Africa. the Arctic or Scandinavian front, and more offensive in the USSR. 2. The Red Army is less offensive capable & while it defeats the German offensives, it does not gain much ground either.
As the West Allied Armies grind across western Europe 1943-45 the Red Army moves at a much slower pace than OTL. Without US tanks, Studebaker trucks, Baldwin locomotives Bombardier rail wagons, ect... ect... ect... the Red Army is not much past Minsk when US operation ECLIPSE takes Berlin & the motorized Polish Army races off to Warsaw. Similarly Allied expeditionary Corps have been sent off to Prague, Budapest, Bucharest, Sofia, ect... to supervise the clean up of German forces in those nations. The Red Army reaches a western boundary somewhere between its January and December 1939 borders.
trurle
Banned
The change you promote is likely gives about 6% reduction in combat power of soviet Soviet forces and may be 15% increase of resources for invasion in NW Europe. The effect is small because the operations you slated for cancellations (Alaska, China) were already sidelined IOTL, and Soviet lend-lease increase of 1943 went mostly for rear guard units and infrastructure, not to front lines. Also, equipment for Soviet railroads which was a large part of the Soviet lend-lease tonnage is not very suitable for amphibious landing operations in NW Europe.
Although i agree the logistical strain on Soviet Union will be higher in your scenario mostly due lack of trucks, Soviets will adapt to it, likely producing truck/rail convertibles and more of the light rail as similarly strained Japanese did in the same period or French did in WWI.
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There long term cumulative effects at work in this, Without the infrastructure improvement earlier the USSR is less able to support offensive power later. Adjusting the automotive industry to build more transport trucks means fewer engines for tanks. Building more locomotives means fewer tank chassis.
& my proposal sidelines them further...
Aside from that locomotives ect... were important to sustaining Allied armies in western Europe a portion of the material and labor can be turned to boosting invasion capability. Production goals in the US were not set in stone & over the long haul had a fair amount of flexibility.
Possibly the most significant gain for the west Allies in cargo ship capacity. To use round numbers: a average cargo ship round trip from the US east coast to the UK was 30 days. Or 240,000 days for a 8,000 ton cargo capacity. The same ship requiring a 45 day RT to Murmansk costs 360,000 ton/days for the same 8,000 tons delivered. If it is a 90 day RT to Abadans port on the Persian LL route the cost is 720,000 ton/days. Depending on how the actual transit times fall out the 1,793,932 long tons transferred from cargo ship to the Persian overland route in 1943 can be somewhere near additional 5,400,000 tons delivered to the UK, if kept at 1942 levels of 353,114 the difference can still be near 4 million tons added to deliveries to the UK. One can note that this is a relatively small percentage of the gross cargo passing thru British ports in 1943, but its also quantities & percentages the senior Allied leaders fought over. Combine these percentages saved across multiple theatres on one effort and it adds up.
Decades ago I saw a synopsis of a Soviet military school lectures on western Allied conduct of WWII. One of the core thesis in these lectures was that the Anglo/US coalition lacked focus of effort and offensive power was dispersed to far globally. Indecisive strategic fumbling slowed and blunted Allied war effort in the lessons view. Personally here the jury is still out on this, but I think the idea and implications are worth examining.
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Deleted member 1487
He had a heart attack or a series of strokes in 1945 right around the end of the war IOTL:
https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/true-story-death-stalin-180965119/