Alternate Electoral Maps II
- Thread starter Aaaaasima
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Yes, it's correct. you could swing each state by a different margin, if you want it to be more realistic. for instance, if you do a 20% swing to Clinton, she's going to get 81% in California which isn't really plausible in reality, even if she were winning 68% of the national popular vote. I would swing solid blue states by slightly less than swing or usually competitive states, with the rest of her PV margin coming from making major inroads in solidly GOP states. that's probably more realistic than her getting over 80% in states like California, Maryland, and Hawaii while only very narrowly winning - or losing - states that still have slight ancestral Democratic strength like Arkansas and West Virginia.
I see. So I guess that every state would swing differently. So basically, @Reagent's formula would be what I would use.
One final scenario, in honor of our late 41st President, George H.W. Bush. This is a map of a Bush landslide in 1988, based off the results of a Campaign Trail game:
George H.W. Bush (R-Texas)/Danforth Quayle (R-Indiana)-535 EV-64.67%
Michael Dukakis (D-Massachusetts)/Lloyd Bentsen (D-Texas)-3 EV-34.66%
Others-0 EV-0.67%
Some interesting statistics:
George H.W. Bush (R-Texas)/Danforth Quayle (R-Indiana)-535 EV-64.67%
Michael Dukakis (D-Massachusetts)/Lloyd Bentsen (D-Texas)-3 EV-34.66%
Others-0 EV-0.67%
- Bush wins all fifty states. Not only does he win them, but he wins them all by double-digit margins. The closest state in this scenario is Rhode Island, which Bush wins by 11.25%. Dukakis is humiliated in Massachusetts, losing it by 14.90% (56.97-42.07%).
- Bush receives over 60% of the vote in 28 states, including in Lloyd Bentsen's (and his adopted) home state of Texas. Texas gives 66.64% of its votes to the Bush-Quayle ticket.
- Bush receives over 70% of the vote in 13 states: Alaska, Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana (Quayle's home state), Mississippi, Nebraska, New Hampshire, South Carolina, Utah, Virginia, and Wyoming.
- Bush gets 20.55% of the vote in the District of Columbia.
2012 Election on Earth 76
Tennessee Governor Gore-Arkansas Senator Blanche Lincoln
45.32%
266 ECV
Frm Secretary of State( 1993-1997) Condoleezza Rice
Illinois Senator Hilary Rodham
44.60
272 ECV
California Senator Jerry Brown
Frm New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson
9.89%
0 ECV
Others
0.19%
I love how 2012 in this timeline looks exactly like an election from the 90s.
It was a uniform swing formula that he devised. I had wanted to swing the 2012 and 2016 elections to make them match 1964, in terms of PV and margin. The formula that he devised was basically this:
[(61.05-48.02) / (third party + (45.93-38.47))] * (third party + what you removed from Trump).
This is what I think it would have actually looked like if Clinton got 68% of the popular vote in 2016:
Most of her margin comes from doing much better in red states, as the most solidly Democratic states are already close to being maxed out. she gets into the low-to-mid 70s in states like California, Illinois, New York, Vermont, and Massachusetts, but only clears 80% in Hawaii and DC. she improves dramatically in red states that are trending D, like Texas and Georgia, and wins narrow victories in the most solidly GOP states like Utah, Wyoming, and Oklahoma. those last three states would be the only ones decided by single digits IMO.
Most of her margin comes from doing much better in red states, as the most solidly Democratic states are already close to being maxed out. she gets into the low-to-mid 70s in states like California, Illinois, New York, Vermont, and Massachusetts, but only clears 80% in Hawaii and DC. she improves dramatically in red states that are trending D, like Texas and Georgia, and wins narrow victories in the most solidly GOP states like Utah, Wyoming, and Oklahoma. those last three states would be the only ones decided by single digits IMO.
I see. How do you think she would have done if she got 61.05% of the popular vote, like Johnson?This is what I think it would have actually looked like if Clinton got 68% of the popular vote in 2016:
Most of her margin comes from doing much better in red states, as the most solidly Democratic states are already close to being maxed out. she gets into the low-to-mid 70s in states like California, Illinois, New York, Vermont, and Massachusetts, but only clears 80% in Hawaii and DC. she improves dramatically in red states that are trending D, like Texas and Georgia, and wins narrow victories in the most solidly GOP states like Utah, Wyoming, and Oklahoma. those last three states would be the only ones decided by single digits IMO.
Interesting. I have one last question for you, then. How would Obama have done in 2012 if he had gotten 61.05%, to Romney's 38.47%?
1968 election but instead of Nixon and Humphrey, Reagan and RFK get their party's nominations instead. (And obviously RFK survives)
Senator Robert F. Kennedy/ Governor John Connally - 276 EV
Fmr Governor Ronald Reagan/ Governor James A. Rhodes - 217 EV
Fmr Governor George Wallace/ General Curtis LeMay - 45 EV
And here's 1972
President Robert F. Kennedy/ Vice President John Connally - 332 EV
Governor Nelson Rockefeller/ Senator Howard Baker - 206 EV
Senator Robert F. Kennedy/ Governor John Connally - 276 EV
Fmr Governor Ronald Reagan/ Governor James A. Rhodes - 217 EV
Fmr Governor George Wallace/ General Curtis LeMay - 45 EV
And here's 1972
President Robert F. Kennedy/ Vice President John Connally - 332 EV
Governor Nelson Rockefeller/ Senator Howard Baker - 206 EV
Why does Kennedy do so well in the Mountain West, and why does he lose West Virginia both times?1968 election but instead of Nixon and Humphrey, Reagan and RFK get their party's nominations instead. (And obviously RFK survives)
Senator Robert F. Kennedy/ Governor John Connally - 276 EV
Fmr Governor Ronald Reagan/ Governor James A. Rhodes - 217 EV
Fmr Governor George Wallace/ General Curtis LeMay - 45 EV
And here's 1972
President Robert F. Kennedy/ Vice President John Connally - 332 EV
Governor Nelson Rockefeller/ Senator Howard Baker - 206 EV
My take on what the electoral maps for the 1912 and 1916 elections for Bullmoose at Bay. (Only he doesn't end WW1 in a year.)
Fmr President Theodore Roosevelt/ Governor Hiram Johnson - 292 EV
Governor Woodrow Wilson/ Governor Thomas R. Marshall - 231 EV
President William Howard Taft/ Nicholas M. Butler - 8 EV
President Theodore Roosevelt/ Vice President Hiram Johnson - 268 EV
Speaker Champ Clark/ Mayor James H. Preston - 167 EV
Governor Charles Evan Hughes/ Fmr Vice President Charles W. Fairbanks - 96 EV
Fmr President Theodore Roosevelt/ Governor Hiram Johnson - 292 EV
Governor Woodrow Wilson/ Governor Thomas R. Marshall - 231 EV
President William Howard Taft/ Nicholas M. Butler - 8 EV
President Theodore Roosevelt/ Vice President Hiram Johnson - 268 EV
Speaker Champ Clark/ Mayor James H. Preston - 167 EV
Governor Charles Evan Hughes/ Fmr Vice President Charles W. Fairbanks - 96 EV
Reagan would take much of Wallace’s support in the south1968 election but instead of Nixon and Humphrey, Reagan and RFK get their party's nominations instead. (And obviously RFK survives)
Senator Robert F. Kennedy/ Governor John Connally - 276 EV
Fmr Governor Ronald Reagan/ Governor James A. Rhodes - 217 EV
Fmr Governor George Wallace/ General Curtis LeMay - 45 EV
And here's 1972
President Robert F. Kennedy/ Vice President John Connally - 332 EV
Governor Nelson Rockefeller/ Senator Howard Baker - 206 EV
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