A Blunted Sickle - Thread II

[SenatorChickpea]

I know you said 'by the standards of the time,' but do you seriously stand by putting homosexuality on the same level as pedophilia? How on earth is Keynes being gay remotely close to Beria's homicidal child abuse?
And why is it something to be 'unhappy' to write about?

 

[naraht]

It's nationalisation of all the power companies in the province - Godbout in OTL had a bit of a vendetta with both Shawinigan & Montreal Heat, Light & Power. Having the excuse to nationalise the lot of them in the name of the war effort is manna from heaven to him. The nuclear programme specifically want Beauharnois because it's the easiest place to add a lot of generation capacity quickly, the rest is a political sweetener to make sure there aren't any problems.

I'm not sure why Shawningan wasn't nationalized during WWII iOTL...

Looking longer term, it appears that Quebec will feel less isolated iTTL. With France Stronger, I wonder if they would feel more the Crossroads of the International Entente. But a Liberal France (in Quebec terms) as a Stronger partner might lead to the conflict in Quebec being more directly conservative/liberal rather than focused on independence.

 

[pdf27]

I have this factoid on postwar power usage at Y-12
Electric power is supplied by TVA. Within Y-12, power is transmitted to the major distribution systems by three 161-kilovolts (kV) overhead radial feeder lines. There are eleven 13.8-kV distribution systems that range in size from 20 megavolt amperes (MVA) to 50 MVA, and reduce the 161 kV to 13.8 kV and distribute that power to unit substations located at facilities throughout Y-12. Each distribution system consists of a high-voltage outdoor transformer with indoor switchgear, 15-kV feeder cables, power distribution transformers, and auxiliary substation equipment. In total, the 13.8-kV distribution systems include approximately 30 miles of overhead lines, 10 miles of underground cable, and 740 pole- and pad-mounted transformers. At Y-12, the average monthly power usage is less than approximately 30 to 40 megawatts (MWe). The available capacity, approximately 430 MWe, greatly exceeds current demands. This is due to the fact that the original uses of Y-12 required a large, robust electrical system to support the uranium enrichment mission. The change in mission, from uranium enrichment to weapons manufacturing and subsequent evolution to the current missions, has greatly reduced Y-12’s electrical needs

But don't discount what gaseous diffusion like K-25 used.

The plants were the original(K-25), K-27, K-29, K-31 and K-33 which contained the largest equipment housed in the third largest steel structure in the world at that time falling behind the Eiffel Tower and the Empire State building. K-33 went on stream in mid 1954 and it’s dimensions were awesome. The single building was 81 ft. high, covered more than 32 acres, had two floors and a partial basement. It’s part of the cascade consisted of the main feed facility which fed the low grade uranium, 640 separation stages each one made up of a converter the size of a small house which contained 4000 individual barrier tubes(tube bundle), an axial compressor and a 2000HP GE or Westinghouse electric motor.
...
The supply voltage to each of the 640 stages was 4480AC and during normal cascade operation would float around 600-800 amps. On down surges which were infrequent I’ve seen all the stages in a cell pinned at 1000 amps. When the single plant was completed and on stream it used more electric power than the city of Chicago. When all the gaseous diffusion plants were completed and on stream, Oak Ridge, Portsmouth, Paducah etc. combined they consumed 10% of all the generated power in the United States.

I think the 10% of power in the US is probably a misunderstanding - https://www.aps.org/units/fhp/newsletters/spring2015/oak-ridge.cfm suggests it was actually 10% of the power generated by the TVA, which makes a lot more sense. The killer is that the Clinton Engineering Works transmission system topped out at 310 MW - a tiny fraction of US generating capacity.

And then this from the wiki on Portsmouth

The primary mode of enrichment was the gaseous diffusion of uranium hexaflouride to separate the lighter fissile isotope, U-235, from the heavier non-fissile isotope, U-238. The plant initially produced material for the U.S. nuclear weapons program. In the mid-1960s, the plant converted to fuel production for commercial nuclear power plants. Portsmouth took material from Paducah that was enriched to 2.75% U-235 and further enriched it to approximately 4% and 5%.[4][5]

The Portsmouth plant had a capacity of 8.3 million separative work units per year (SWU/year) in 1984 in 4,080 stages. Three buildings, X-326, X-330 and X-333, housed gaseous diffusion equipment.[6] Three cooling tower complexes, X-626, X-630, and X-633, were used to remove process heat. Six hundred eighty-nine million gallons of water went through the 11 cooling towers daily, of which 20 million gallons evaporated into the air. Water came from well fields installed at the Scioto River supplying 40 million gallons per day when operating at full capacity.

To support operations, the AEC entered into the largest contract for a single customer in the history of the electrical utility industry for power at that time. Power usage was equal to the all-time high voltage requirements in the United States, more than 2,000 megawatts - 18 billion kilowatt hours yearly. To handle the power requirements, two large switchyards were constructed on site. Two large steam electric generating stations were built to supply power at Clifty Creek in Madison, Indiana and Kyger Creek in Gallipolis, Ohio. At the time, they were the largest power plants built by private industry as well as the most efficient, producing 1 kilowatt hour of electricity for 0.7 pounds of coal. The power plants used 7.5 million tons of coal annually to support operations.

UF6 enrichment requires vast amounts of power, but don't confuse the amount used by the 1980s with what would be consumed by a 1980s bomb project - the amount of uranium passing through increased vastly with time. This is actually a significant factor in British & French postwar nuclear and industrial policy.

Electricity nationalisation during ww2 apparently was quite common - just listened to a podcast on that topic about NZ's industry which was nationalised in 39.

Hydro-Quebec was created in 1944 OTL, Godbout's vendetta with them was an OTL thing. The UK industry was nationalised in 1947 - I think partially it was a fashion at the time, but also countries were finally adopting unified national grids and doing that is very difficult with the prevailing mish-mash of municipal electricity companies.

If it helps, he doesn't seem to have been particularly invested in purges as a concept, but was very focused on getting into Stalin's good books and becoming his right hand man. Politically he seems to have been an interesting animal in the Soviet zoo, and when he briefly held power he seems to have set himself towards establishing the superiority of the State organs over the Party ones, and supporting the nationalities over promoting Greater Russia, both of which would probably be interesting to play with.

Possibly, but that might be something for someone else to write.

I think pdf is referring to Beria's pedophilia making him unpleasant to write as 'saving' the USSR.

Well, that and the fact that he was responsible for torturing and murdering vast numbers of people to advance his career.

I'm not sure why Shawningan wasn't nationalized during WWII iOTL...

It was in 1944 as I understand it.

Looking longer term, it appears that Quebec will feel less isolated iTTL. With France Stronger, I wonder if they would feel more the Crossroads of the International Entente. But a Liberal France (in Quebec terms) as a Stronger partner might lead to the conflict in Quebec being more directly conservative/liberal rather than focused on independence.

I doubt it - the relationship between France and Quebec isn't nearly as strong as the French think it is.

 

[CalBear]

Unhappily, he is probably not the only leading twentieth century figure to be sexually abnormal (at least by the standards of the time). Mao was reportedly a borderline pedophile as was Charlie Chaplin. Lin Bao a voyeur. Very nasty rumours around Claude Dansey and Terence O'Neill. Sumner Welles and Keynes were promiscuous homosexuals. Lord Louis Mountbatten into gay sado-masochism.Not to mention Hector McDonald as a suspected pedophile. And that's only the ones we know (or suspect) about.

Did you actually just put "promiscuous homosexuals" into the same bucket as pedophiles?

 

[Decius00009]

Did you actually just put "promiscuous homosexuals" into the same bucket as pedophiles?

I'm in no way defending the comparison, in any way, shape, or form, but the poster did say 'the standards of the day,' and by those standards, to be promiscuous and gay was considered abnormal. Thankfully, we have moved on.

 

[naraht]

It was in 1944 as I understand it.

No, Montreal Power and Light was in 1944, Shawinigan Water & Power Company wasn't added until 1963.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shawinigan_Water_&_Power_Company

 

[ShortsBelfast]

Did you actually just put "promiscuous homosexuals" into the same bucket as pedophiles?

Not in terms of moral equivalence how their behaviour is to be regarded. In terms of the "your career will be destroyed if this gets out" bucket yes I did. That was the social reality up until at least the seventies, more probably the early eighties. I remember Jeremy Thorpe's political career being destroyed during my time at primary school. That in fact was how I found out what a homosexual was.

 

[Thisisnotausername]

Not in terms of moral equivalence how their behaviour is to be regarded. In terms of the "your career will be destroyed if this gets out" bucket yes I did. That was the social reality up until at least the seventies, more probably the early eighties. I remember Jeremy Thorpe's political career being destroyed during my time at primary school. That in fact was how I found out what a homosexual was.

The thing is, the post you were responding to wasn't talking about what their contemporaries would've thought, it was talking about it being unpleasant to write a timeline portraying a sexual predator such as Beria in such a positive way, and so your response made it sound like you thought writing a gay man in a positive light would be equally difficult to stomach.

 

[ShortsBelfast]

My point was that quite a lot of historical figures have hidden dimensions to their lives in respect of interests and activities antithetical to the mores of their own era. And that we only know about the blatant and those exposed in or after their lifetimes.

 

[marathag]

I think the 10% of power in the US is probably a misunderstanding - https://www.aps.org/units/fhp/newsletters/spring2015/oak-ridge.cfm suggests it was actually 10% of the power generated by the TVA, which makes a lot more sense. The killer is that the Clinton Engineering Works transmission system topped out at 310 MW - a tiny fraction of US generating capacity.

By the '50s, with all the various 'K' plants at Oak Ridge, I have seen 7300MWe tossed around, considering that the main French Plant postwar used 2100 for far fewer stages doesn't seem too far off the mark.

The Y-12 used a lot of power: but gaseous even more. That's the reason UF-6 production went off to centrifuges when that became viable

 

[The Red]

Not in terms of moral equivalence how their behaviour is to be regarded. In terms of the "your career will be destroyed if this gets out" bucket yes I did. That was the social reality up until at least the seventies, more probably the early eighties. I remember Jeremy Thorpe's political career being destroyed during my time at primary school. That in fact was how I found out what a homosexual was.

I'd wager that was more down to the attempted murder of Norman Scott and the death of Scott's friend's dog in the attempt. The fact that Thorpe got off could arguably be because the Judge at his trial was so sympathetic towards him because of his reputation as a respected politician. Thorpe may have been outed but the class and stature biases still favoured him.

 

[Youngmarshall]

I'd wager that was more down to the attempted murder of Norman Scott and the death of Scott's friend's dog in the attempt. The fact that Thorpe got off could arguably be because the Judge at his trial was so sympathetic towards him because of his reputation as a respected politician. Thorpe may have been outed but the class and stature biases still favoured him.

Thorpe's a complicated one.

Because yes he wasn't an innocent Turning or Wilde like figure persecuted for his sexuality. He was a sexual predator and attempted murderer, hiring an assassian to kill an ex lover should end your carrer cos it's an awful thing to do.

But he was in that position because homosexuality was so unacceptable to his class and stature and you could argue he was criminalised by society to a certain extent. Obviously individuals are still responsible for that choice but it is one of the known consequences of criminalilising an activity that people want to do, is it leads them into further crimes. See all the homosexuals blackmailed into spying for hostile countries as other examples. Or drug gangs.

 

[The Red]

Thorpe's a complicated one.

Because yes he wasn't an innocent Turning or Wilde like figure persecuted for his sexuality. He was a sexual predator and attempted murderer, hiring an assassian to kill an ex lover should end your carrer cos it's an awful thing to do.

But he was in that position because homosexuality was so unacceptable to his class and stature and you could argue he was criminalised by society to a certain extent. Obviously individuals are still responsible for that choice but it is one of the known consequences of criminalilising an activity that people want to do, is it leads them into further crimes. See all the homosexuals blackmailed into spying for hostile countries as other examples. Or drug gangs.

Oh I agree there's that element to it, I feel like the recent miniseries got the balance more or less right. One scene that sticks in my mind is when he asks for Reginald Maudling's help to cover up the affair and Maudling responds to the effect that "I will help you because you're One Of Us but if you continue to act like you're Not One Of Us then you'll be on your own in the future" with all the affable menace that that entails.

 

[pdf27]

No, Montreal Power and Light was in 1944, Shawinigan Water & Power Company wasn't added until 1963.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shawinigan_Water_&_Power_Company

You're right - annoying, I'm sure I read it somewhere. Oh well, adding it in isn't too much of a stretch given the politics of the time.

By the '50s, with all the various 'K' plants at Oak Ridge, I have seen 7300MWe tossed around, considering that the main French Plant postwar used 2100 for far fewer stages doesn't seem too far off the mark.

The Y-12 used a lot of power: but gaseous even more. That's the reason UF-6 production went off to centrifuges when that became viable

As of 1996, the US had 740 tonnes of HEU in their inventory - crudely, 15 tonnes/year of production. The entire 1945 inventory was about 60kg, with (crudely) production rates of about 1-200 kg/year possible - that means the postwar plants were about 100 times the capacity of the wartime plants. 7300/100 is 73MW, multiply by 3-4 because the Calutrons were horribly inefficient and you get to about the APS power estimate. It's primary school maths, but probably about right.

 

[xt828]

Well, that and the fact that he was responsible for torturing and murdering vast numbers of people to advance his career.

At this point, that is pretty much everyone in the Soviet hierarchy. Every potential leader, from the most liberal to the most reformist to the most conservative to the most Stalinist was deeply involved in the purges and mass murders of the 30s, whether the population transfers, the campaigns against the peasants, the campaigns against ethnic minorities, the purges of the party, military and intelligentsia, the campaigns against the artists, the Holodomor, and so on. If you wanted to get ahead, you made your quotas for murder.

 

[naraht]

At this point, that is pretty much everyone in the Soviet hierarchy. Every potential leader, from the most liberal to the most reformist to the most conservative to the most Stalinist was deeply involved in the purges and mass murders of the 30s, whether the population transfers, the campaigns against the peasants, the campaigns against ethnic minorities, the purges of the party, military and intelligentsia, the campaigns against the artists, the Holodomor, and so on. If you wanted to get ahead, you made your quotas for murder.

Frankly, if you want to get a Leader of the Soviet Union by 1950 with the least amount of blood on their hands, have a Military Coup...

 

[naraht]

You're right - annoying, I'm sure I read it somewhere. Oh well, adding it in isn't too much of a stretch given the politics of the time.

Agreed, When the obvious question is why weren't they included iOTL, not a stretch.

 

[xt828]

Frankly, if you want to get a Leader of the Soviet Union by 1950 with the least amount of blood on their hands, have a Military Coup...

Even then, quite a lot of them got their hands dirty during the revolution and the civil war. Take for example Zhukov, who got his first Order of the Red Banner for his involvement in the crushing of the Tambov rebellion, which saw about 140,000 civilian deaths, included from concentration camps and poison gas.

 

[marathag]

As of 1996, the US had 740 tonnes of HEU in their inventory - crudely, 15 tonnes/year of production. The entire 1945 inventory was about 60kg, with (crudely) production rates of about 1-200 kg/year possible - that means the postwar plants were about 100 times the capacity of the wartime plants. 7300/100 is 73MW, multiply by 3-4 because the Calutrons were horribly inefficient and you get to about the APS power estimate. It's primary school maths, but probably about right.

Most of the HEU was done by 1965

K-25, K-27 (operating Jan 1946 for low enrichment feed to K-25, replaced S-50) then fed to Y-12 Betas thru 1946
Expansion planned in 1948 with K-29, K-31, done by 1951 and K-33 finally online mid 1954) that allowed

The Paducah Gaseous Diffusion Plant in Kentucky(1954) had a peak power load of 3040 MWe. It did 1-2% enrichment shipped by rail to both Oak Ridge and Portsmouth.
Portsmouth Gaseous Diffusion Plant(1952) was 2100MW by itself, thats 18 billion kilowatt hours a year for its enrichment to 5%. 70% of production cost at Paducah was for electricity.

 

[pdf27]

Thanks - that's a fair bit more in the early days than I thought. I don't think it's a major issue though - the Entente are still thinking fairly small (much smaller than K-25 or Capenhurst), with a handful of bombs being viewed as an unstoppable superweapon at the moment. That will change - in time - but at the moment the 1,000 MW of unused capability at Beauharnois should be enough: they just need to get the turbines, generators and grid reinforcement in faster than they can build the gaseous diffusion plant which should be feasible.
If they go down the HEU route postwar however they will need a lot more power...