A Blunted Sickle - Thread II

Good analysis. If I may, I would like to complete it with my own thoughts.

In June 1940 OTL, the Poles had 2 Infantry Divisions (the 1st Grenadiers and the 2nd Rifle Divisions -in French "Chasseurs, literally "Hunters"), 2 infantry Divisions being formed (the 3rd and 4th DIP or "Polish Infantry Divisions"), one armoured brigade: the 10th "Armoured Cavalry Brigade" and two Mountain Infantry Brigades: the Polish Independant Highlands Brigade in Norway and the Polish Independant Carpathian Rifle Brigade in Syria.

With Polish volunteers from America, Britain and France coming for 18 months, soldiers escaping from German camps and reaching France through Hungary and Romania (like OTL) and -why not- Polish soldiers and officers in Soviet custody freed by Stalin as a token of good will, it's indeed very likely that the 4 Infantry Divisions remain fully manned with 16500 men each (French divisional strenght OTL in 1940). That the 10th Armoured Brigade indeed become the 1st Polish DLM (Light Mechanical Division or Division Légère Mécanique) while the two Mountain Infantry Brigades become a full mountain Infantry Division- likely serving in Norway-, perhaps the 5th Carpathian Rifle Division, French Army liked those kind of names.
I wouldn't be surprised if France had enough Polish manpower to create a 6th Infantry Division, indeed likely motorized in order to create a "Motorized Army Corps" (French Army's official name) with the 1st Polish DLM.

Considering the size of the French Infantry and Armoured Divisions (around 16500 and 11000 men respectively) and adding Corps and Service troops, I would say that Polish Forces in France would number 200 000 men (180 000 in the Army, the rest in Air Force and Navy).
We should add to this the 1st Czechoslovakian Infantry Division which was formed OTL by France in June 1940 and would likely have 16500 men in 1941 ITTL. Considering Benes and Sikorski OTL were willing to create a formal and long lasting "Polish-Czechoslovakian pact" (mainly against the Soviet Union), I wouldn't be surprised if Benes would accept to place "his" Division under Polish command. By this point, you have Seven Divisions in France, enough to create an autonomous Field Army (like for France OTL in 1944 with Tassigny's 1st French Army with... 7 Divisions as well).
Larger number of cadre units is possible if Poles have spare officers and not enough rank and file soldiers.

I would add POWs and deserters from Wehrmacht who had been conscripted in Poland's territories annexed into the Reich and liberated forced workers and such, while Germans losing control over occupied Poland could lead to increased smuggling of volunteers through Slovakia and Hungary.
I wouldn't count on American volunteers though - OTL they didn't materialize in large numbers, I am not sure how could you change it, and IIRC Polish immigration in France, Belgium, Netherlands and UK was mostly conscripted in OTL adding up to the OTL numbers.
Potential Soviet release of Polish nationals would lead to certain questions being asked and without the Germans to blame they would be left only with "They all escaped to Mongolia" answer. Unless this is supposed to be ethnic cleansing in disguise and Stalin is dumping trainloads of Poles at the nearest border.
 

marathag

Banned
Potential Soviet release of Polish nationals would lead to certain questions being asked and without the Germans to blame they would be left only with "They all escaped to Mongolia" answer. Unless this is supposed to be ethnic cleansing in disguise and Stalin is dumping trainloads of Poles at the nearest border.

OTL
On 5 March 1940, Stalin signed their death warrant--an NKVD order condemning 21,857 prisoners to "the supreme penalty: shooting." They had been condemned as "hardened and uncompromising enemies of Soviet authority."

During April-May 1940, the Polish prisoners were moved from their internment camps and taken to three execution sites. The place most identified with the Soviet atrocity is Katyn Forest, located 12 miles west of Smolensk, Russia. For years historians assumed that the grounds of an NKVD rest and recreation facility were both an execution and burial site for nearly a fifth of the unfortunate Poles who found themselves in Soviet captivity. Post-Cold War revelations, however, suggest that the victims were shot in the basement of the NKVD headquarters in Smolensk and at an abattoir in the same city, although some may have been executed at a site in the forest itself.
 
OTL
On 5 March 1940, Stalin signed their death warrant--an NKVD order condemning 21,857 prisoners to "the supreme penalty: shooting." They had been condemned as "hardened and uncompromising enemies of Soviet authority."

During April-May 1940, the Polish prisoners were moved from their internment camps and taken to three execution sites. The place most identified with the Soviet atrocity is Katyn Forest, located 12 miles west of Smolensk, Russia. For years historians assumed that the grounds of an NKVD rest and recreation facility were both an execution and burial site for nearly a fifth of the unfortunate Poles who found themselves in Soviet captivity. Post-Cold War revelations, however, suggest that the victims were shot in the basement of the NKVD headquarters in Smolensk and at an abattoir in the same city, although some may have been executed at a site in the forest itself.
Exactly, which is why I doubt Stalin would actually release Polish prisoners (not the imprisoned and subsequently murdered officers but the half million or so Poles shipped to Siberia, Kazakhstan etc and those still living in Polish lands he had grabbed in 1939)
 
Exactly, which is why I doubt Stalin would actually release Polish prisoners (not the imprisoned and subsequently murdered officers but the half million or so Poles shipped to Siberia, Kazakhstan etc and those still living in Polish lands he had grabbed in 1939)
No need to release the Soviet Polish Population in order to turn them in Polish Entente Divisions. I was more thinking about a secret agreement like the one with Anders OTL.

Would be a good idea to link to the image, or at least reference their username to give due credit.
Good point. The map has been made by FOLLOWBYWHITERABBIT on Deviantart. Here's his (or her) webpage. https://www.deviantart.com/followbywhiterabbit
 

Ian_W

Banned
No it will not. I actually expect Germany to be broken down in its constituant Landers as independent countries forbidden to unify again and deprived of military forces, period.

From what pdf has said, that's not part of the Entente's war goals. On the other hand, expect to see the German army eliminated completely, and the German constabulary *may* be equipped with truncheons. By 1955 or so.
 

marathag

Banned
Exactly, which is why I doubt Stalin would actually release Polish prisoners (not the imprisoned and subsequently murdered officers but the half million or so Poles shipped to Siberia, Kazakhstan etc and those still living in Polish lands he had grabbed in 1939)

Also why he can't even return the eastern half of the country, too many troublesome events would come to light, let alone the prisoners who know firsthand what goes on in the Worker's Paradise
 
Also why he can't even return the eastern half of the country, too many troublesome events would come to light, let alone the prisoners who know firsthand what goes on in the Worker's Paradise

I don't think that was a mystery to anyone who bothered to know, at least in Poland.
 
From what pdf has said, that's not part of the Entente's war goals. On the other hand, expect to see the German army eliminated completely, and the German constabulary *may* be equipped with truncheons. By 1955 or so.
The logic is that if Germany is split up, it'll eventually reunite again (the inhabitants clearly think of themselves as Germans rather than Hanoverians or Bavarians first) - and if it does it will probably be by conquest, with the most militarily competent coming out on top. Better to keep it united, and rebuilt it in a new image - even if it takes a century or two of occupation. If necessary they'll make the Germans pay for it.
 
This timeline only needs one improvement: somebody needs to assassinate uncle Joe

Don’t get me wrong: There is still a lot of misery, pain and death ITTL, but offing Stalin will make this paradise over OTL
 

Ian_W

Banned
This timeline only needs one improvement: somebody needs to assassinate uncle Joe

Don’t get me wrong: There is still a lot of misery, pain and death ITTL, but offing Stalin will make this paradise over OTL

Nahh, that's more likely to put the CPSU into another thirty years of paranoia and counter-purge.

On the other hand, after Stalin's death you had the CPSU take a number of steps back from the counterproductive mass purges, and I dont think that would change with either Malenkov or Beria winning the power struggle that saw Khrushchev win.
 
Just got caught up on the story. Excellent timeline, I must say.

A few comments:
- The maps are very useful, but when you're skimming the thread to find story posts, it's hard to find them all. The same is likely true when people come back for any updates. Could you post a link to the latest map in the OP of the thread?

- I saw past discussions of the story-only file being available to charitable donors, and how you were thinking of doing the same when 1941 is done. Is this one where you need to wait? It might be a while before you can find the time(which is totally understandable given your IRL commitments, of course), and new readers might want to "buy" it before then. I might have, if it'd been available. I understand if this is impractical, but wanted to mention it.

- The pace of Allied advances seems a bit optimistic to me, at first glance. In OTL 1944, they captured Paris August 25, Antwerp September 4, and Aachen October 21, to give a sense of timeline. Per this map on Wikipedia, the Allies seem to have had five armies north of Switzerland circa September, facing six German. In TTL April 1941, I count 12 Allied against 12 German(plus somewhere around one more from each of them at the Water Line, off-map). As a sanity check, Barbarossa involved 12 German armies and the Battle of France had nine French armies and about four from other allies, so that seems plausible enough. In OTL 1944, the Allies also had much stronger air superiority than they do in TTL 1941, from what I can tell, so that'd also help. Conversely, in OTL, allied logistics were strained by the lack of usable ports. I guess I'm just shocked at how rapidly the Germans are falling apart here. I'd expect them to be falling back, but they're losing every battle of substance. They seem like they have enough force that at least a few of their operations should succeed. I suspect I'm missing something here, because you've obviously done more research than I have, but I'm wondering what I'm missing.

Thanks again.
 
- The pace of Allied advances seems a bit optimistic to me, at first glance. In OTL 1944, they captured Paris August 25, Antwerp September 4, and Aachen October 21, to give a sense of timeline. Per this map on Wikipedia, the Allies seem to have had five armies north of Switzerland circa September, facing six German. In TTL April 1941, I count 12 Allied against 12 German(plus somewhere around one more from each of them at the Water Line, off-map). As a sanity check, Barbarossa involved 12 German armies and the Battle of France had nine French armies and about four from other allies, so that seems plausible enough. In OTL 1944, the Allies also had much stronger air superiority than they do in TTL 1941, from what I can tell, so that'd also help. Conversely, in OTL, allied logistics were strained by the lack of usable ports. I guess I'm just shocked at how rapidly the Germans are falling apart here. I'd expect them to be falling back, but they're losing every battle of substance. They seem like they have enough force that at least a few of their operations should succeed. I suspect I'm missing something here, because you've obviously done more research than I have, but I'm wondering what I'm missing.

Thanks again.
I believe you got the clue, just missed the chain of thought from it. The logistics/ports are the reason. After the Belgian offensive taking Brussels, it was all but impossible for a further advance along the Belgian axis to succeed, and it would have taken to 1942 to attack the Rhine/Ruhr that way. But - the Allies could reroute everything along the Rhine logistics chain and try again, thereby also sort of outflanking the Germans (just because the Allies couldn't do anything more in Belgium doesn't mean the Germans knew, or could redeploy a lot of stuff north).
 
In addition to which, the Wehrmacht ITTL is a whole different animal from the Wehrmacht of OTL. They haven't expanded to anywhere near their OTL level of strength, nor do they have the level of training the OTL Wehrmacht was able to attain. By contrast, the Entente casualties are probably roughly equivalent to OTL at this point, but my guess is that the ratio of killed and wounded to prisoners is much less lopsided than it was OTL, given the fact that there wasn't a mass collapse of the French Army and no Dunkirk evacuation for the BEF.
 
Just got caught up on the story. Excellent timeline, I must say.

- The pace of Allied advances seems a bit optimistic to me, at first glance. In OTL 1944, they captured Paris August 25, Antwerp September 4, and Aachen October 21, to give a sense of timeline. Per this map on Wikipedia, the Allies seem to have had five armies north of Switzerland circa September, facing six German. In TTL April 1941, I count 12 Allied against 12 German(plus somewhere around one more from each of them at the Water Line, off-map). As a sanity check, Barbarossa involved 12 German armies and the Battle of France had nine French armies and about four from other allies, so that seems plausible enough. In OTL 1944, the Allies also had much stronger air superiority than they do in TTL 1941, from what I can tell, so that'd also help.
Think you are making the mistake of thinking all armies are equal. A lot of those German formations are much rawer, lacking in heavy equipment and under strength compared to the Allied ones they face. It was not unknown OTL for Armies to vary in strength so much that 4 to 1 could actually be a fair fight.
 
In addition to which, the Wehrmacht ITTL is a whole different animal from the Wehrmacht of OTL. They haven't expanded to anywhere near their OTL level of strength, nor do they have the level of training the OTL Wehrmacht was able to attain. By contrast, the Entente casualties are probably roughly equivalent to OTL at this point, but my guess is that the ratio of killed and wounded to prisoners is much less lopsided than it was OTL, given the fact that there wasn't a mass collapse of the French Army and no Dunkirk evacuation for the BEF.

Think you are making the mistake of thinking all armies are equal. A lot of those German formations are much rawer, lacking in heavy equipment and under strength compared to the Allied ones they face. It was not unknown OTL for Armies to vary in strength so much that 4 to 1 could actually be a fair fight.

I'm not sure why this would be the case. They haven't suffered substantially more by TTL early 1941 than they had by OTL early 1941. Their economy will be somewhat more limited by the lack of wartime plunder, but even still I wouldn't expect such huge differences in quantity and quality. Some critical resource shortages were mentioned early in the thread, but were they that serious and that likely to cause massive knock-on effects?

Likewise, the generous Allied artillery support of OTL 1944 seems to be in evidence in TTL 1941, but that seems a bit ambitious. The armies in the field are even larger, and while the logistics are better, I expect the production facilities to be worse. It takes time to ramp your factories up to a wartime pace, and they haven't had as long a period to do that. Plus, the Americans aren't in combat, so they're probably not producing shells in mass quantities. The retention of the French factories would not be expected to make up for that. Are they burning off stockpiles form the "phony war" periods?
 
I'm not sure why this would be the case. They haven't suffered substantially more by TTL early 1941 than they had by OTL early 1941. Their economy will be somewhat more limited by the lack of wartime plunder, but even still I wouldn't expect such huge differences in quantity and quality. Some critical resource shortages were mentioned early in the thread, but were they that serious and that likely to cause massive knock-on effects?

Likewise, the generous Allied artillery support of OTL 1944 seems to be in evidence in TTL 1941, but that seems a bit ambitious. The armies in the field are even larger, and while the logistics are better, I expect the production facilities to be worse. It takes time to ramp your factories up to a wartime pace, and they haven't had as long a period to do that. Plus, the Americans aren't in combat, so they're probably not producing shells in mass quantities. The retention of the French factories would not be expected to make up for that. Are they burning off stockpiles form the "phony war" periods?

Without that plunder they are in the hole completely unless the soviets are giving away stuff for free. Its what OTL they used to rebuild for Barbarossa. Add in the much greater losses they took in the West, all those troops lost in the Paris pocket and the cost of trying to resupply them for example , the lack of the respite they had OTL to rest/train/rebuild, the Ruhr being in escorted fighter range for bombing ( and now in artillery range ), having to fight that way the Entente want rather than Blitzkrieg and it adds up very quickly.

Americans got the ball rolling on munitions as soon as the Entente started giving out orders, its not the same stuff that the US uses as a whole so them not being in the war is pretty irrelevant (it just mirrors what happened OTL but with French orders continuing and not only French factories still producing but less disruption of British ones).
 
It took me a week but I've finally caught up and all I have to say is wow! Hell of a job PDF! I've often found the Battle of France to be one aspect of WWII that really gets ignored. This surprises me because if the Germans super risky, everything must go right plan doesn't go as perfectly as it did then the World starts to spin off in really surprising ways.
 
19th November 1941
After the train from Mińsk Mazowiecki fails to arrive at Treblinka on schedule, a German patrol is sent to investigate. They find the Ghetto empty, and both the Sonderdienst men and their families missing. When questioned the locals claim that the Sonderdienst men and their families all boarded the same train as those in the Ghetto and left town the day before. Confused but with no obvious signs of enemy action, the patrol returns to base and reports back in.

20th November 1941
Bill 14, creating the Quebec Hydroelectric Board, passes through the Legislative Assembly and becomes law. Nationalisation will take effect at midnight on the 1st of December.
 
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