The top ten worst decisions in history

[Koprulu Mustafa Pasha]

The expansion of Russia to the south combined with the decline of the Ottoman Empire is one of the great disasters of history.

Before entering in the war, the question is: How would the Ottomans achieve naval superiority?

Do you think the Ottomans could have gained something from the war, if the leaders made some different decisions?

What is the best case scenario for Ottomans at this period?

Ottomans have zero chance of naval superiority. The best they can do is keep the British away from the coasts with Coastal batteries and mines and try to keep the Russian Fleet in Sevastopol if possible.

The Ottomans certainly could have achieved better results. If Enver has patience and remained defensive in the East he might have had a better chance in the offensive on Russian Armenia later in the war.

The best case scenario is a German victory in the West by 1915/1916 without a disastrous Sarikamish Campaign.

 

[Byzantine fanatic]

Ottomans have zero chance of naval superiority. The best they can do is keep the British away from the coasts with Coastal batteries and mines and try to keep the Russian Fleet in Sevastopol if possible.

The Ottomans certainly could have achieved better results. If Enver has patience and remained defensive in the East he might have had a better chance in the offensive on Russian Armenia later in the war.

The best case scenario is a German victory in the West by 1915/1916 without a disastrous Sarikamish Campaign.

What will the Ottoman empire's Victory terms for peace be?

 

[GauchoBadger]

There has been little or no change in temperature in over a decade. What this pause means is subject to debate. IMO it probably means that at least the top end of the scenarios fail. We are talking maybe a couple C or so not 4 or 5.

Even if I am wrong since there has been no observed global warming in a decade it couldn't have such an effect. Forests overstocked with fuel does. US forest policy for decades has been to plant two trees for every one chopped down. The downside to that is over thick forests. The US forest service assumed we would be chopping down the trees not having Greens throw a hissy fit every time a few conifers are felled.

As far as i know, the issue is not thick forests, but humidity. California has many forest wildfires because it's dry in climate and soil, which requires that its forests get some tending to. The Amazon is as thick a jungle as it can be, and the majority of its wildfires are estimated to be man-made (man-made fires which will likely increase under Bolsonaro's presidency, mind you).
Speaking of Bolsonaro, this might sound like fortune telling, but perhaps whoever decided to approach him at stab him in the chest at Juiz de Fora might have committed a grave historical mistake.

 

[Johnrankins]

As far as i know, the issue is not thick forests, but humidity. California has many forest wildfires because it's climatically dry, which requires that its forests get some tending to. The Amazon is as thick a jungle as it can be, and the majority of its wildfires are estimated to be man-made.

Both probably pay a role. When you have trees very close together fires have a much easier time of spreading than when they are far apart.

 

[Koprulu Mustafa Pasha]

What will the Ottoman empire's Victory terms for peace be?

Possibly some parts of the Caucasus, Kuwait, Qatar and Cyprus and Egypt under Status Quo ante bellum. Egypt will still be independent but the situation will be before 1914. At least... that is what one would demand.

 

[Byzantine fanatic]

Possibly some parts of the Caucasus, Kuwait, Qatar and Cyprus and Egypt under Status Quo ante bellum. Egypt will still be independent but the situation will be before 1914. At least... that is what one would demand.

Egypt, independent? This is unacceptable! I demand Egypt to be placed under total Ottoman control. British out. We will restore the Ottoman Empire to greatness!

 

[Koprulu Mustafa Pasha]

Egypt, independent? This is unacceptable! I demand Egypt to be placed under total Ottoman control. British out. We will restore the Ottoman Empire to greatness!

Well... the 1700s were an interesting time to revive Ottoman Power somewhat...

1914 is totally different.

 

[Byzantine fanatic]

Well... the 1700s were an interesting time to revive Ottoman Power somewhat...

1914 is totally different.

But Mustafa Kemal defeated the British at Gallipoli and saved Anatolia from combined invasion of many enemies. Imagine what might be possible with the full resources available in the much larger territory of 1914?

Rather than send the army to fight over the Caucasus, why not invade Egypt? Seems like a much more useful region for the empire, if they can hold it.

I managed to block the straights of Gibraltar with one Galley and a trade dhow ship in Empire Total War. If I can do it in a PC game set 200 years earlier than the time period we are discussing, it must be possible!

More seriously, I'm not sure what the British could do to stop a full out Ottoman land invasion of Egypt in 1914. By the time troops would arrive, it could be too late to stop them...

 

[Pugzley]

1: Hitler invading Russia during late autumn and getting bogged down in the winter.
2: Hitler giving the RAF breathing space during the Battle of Britain and changed his targets from military targets to British landmarks.
3: Japan bombing Pearl Harbour and provoking America to go to war.
4: Galipoli. The place was too well fortified due to it’s mountainous terrain and all it did was give us Aussies a public holiday.
5: Whoever was the bonehead that decided to ditch the bulletproof dome on JFK’s car.
6: Osama crashing the planes at the World Trade Centre when all he should have done is crash the US economy via a DoS attack on the Stock Market for 48 hours or so and wipe a couple of billion from the US economy and nobody would have suspected him immediately.

 

[Koprulu Mustafa Pasha]

But Mustafa Kemal defeated the British at Gallipoli and saved Anatolia from combined invasion of many enemies. Imagine what might be possible with the full resources available in the much larger territory of 1914?

Rather than send the army to fight over the Caucasus, why not invade Egypt? Seems like a much more useful region for the empire, if they can hold it.

I managed to block the straights of Gibraltar with one Galley and a trade dhow ship in Empire Total War. If I can do it in a PC game set 200 years earlier than the time period we are discussing, it must be possible!

More seriously, I'm not sure what the British could do to stop a full out Ottoman land invasion of Egypt in 1914. By the time troops would arrive, it could be too late to stop them...

Block the Suez for example.

 

[Byzantine fanatic]

Block the Suez for example.

That would be difficult. And how to defend it? It would require time to prepare

 

[Fiver]

5: Whoever was the bonehead that decided to ditch the bulletproof dome on JFK’s car.

JFK refused to use the dime in spite of the Secret Service's recommendation.

 

[Hegemon]

Every Genocide Ever.

 

[Monter]

Rather than send the army to fight over the Caucasus, why not invade Egypt? Seems like a much more useful region for the empire, if they can hold it.

They tried and were beaten back?

 

[wcv215]

1: Hitler invading Russia during late autumn and getting bogged down in the winter.
2: Hitler giving the RAF breathing space during the Battle of Britain and changed his targets from military targets to British landmarks.

Since when is June late autumn?

And is that other tired myth still a thing?

 

[Byzantine fanatic]

Since when is June late autumn?

And is that other tired myth still a thing?

But the 1969 film Battle of Britain says it's true!

 

[Fehérvári]

For Hungary:

Honorable mentions: The Rákóczi Uprising; Almost all decisions at the end of WW1; Forming wagon-fort during the Battle of Muhi, Looting the enemy camp during the Battle of Mezőkeresztes

10. - Andrew II giving away the royal estates en masse
09. - Maria Theresa's inner duty reform
08. - George II Rákóczi's Polish campaign
07. - Electing Vladislaus II Jagiellon instead of Maximilian von Habsburg
06. - Vladislaus I/III Jagiellon charging into the Janissary only to get killed during the Battle of Varna, which turned the won battle into a disastrous rout
05. - Electing two kings after the Battle of Mohács
04. - Resignation of the Batthyány Cabinet
03. - Dethroning the Habsburgs in 1849
02. - Declaring war on the Soviet Union during WW2
01. - Opposing the increase of the military budget before WW1

 

[Grey Wolf]

But Mustafa Kemal defeated the British at Gallipoli and saved Anatolia from combined invasion of many enemies. Imagine what might be possible with the full resources available in the much larger territory of 1914?

Rather than send the army to fight over the Caucasus, why not invade Egypt? Seems like a much more useful region for the empire, if they can hold it.

I managed to block the straights of Gibraltar with one Galley and a trade dhow ship in Empire Total War. If I can do it in a PC game set 200 years earlier than the time period we are discussing, it must be possible!

More seriously, I'm not sure what the British could do to stop a full out Ottoman land invasion of Egypt in 1914. By the time troops would arrive, it could be too late to stop them...

The Ottomans cannot mobilise fast enough to get a huge force to the border before the British, and allies if necessary, can get a corresponding force there to defend it IMVHO

 

[dandan_noodles]

The Ottomans cannot mobilise fast enough to get a huge force to the border before the British, and allies if necessary, can get a corresponding force there to defend it IMVHO

Defend it with what? The 8 division BEF that got wiped out in three months on the Western Front? The Kitchener divisions that are barely in depots?

Moreover, even if the British do have a large force to defend Egypt, that's still a force that they can't use against the Germans i.e. the ally whose success is most critical to the Central Powers as a whole. If the Germans win, it'll fix anything short of social revolution and the overthrow of the state.

 

[cmakk1012]

Defend it with what? The 8 division BEF that got wiped out in three months on the Western Front? The Kitchener divisions that are barely in depots?

Moreover, even if the British do have a large force to defend Egypt, that's still a force that they can't use against the Germans i.e. the ally whose success is most critical to the Central Powers as a whole. If the Germans win, it'll fix anything short of social revolution and the overthrow of the state.

Conversely, though, the Ottoman weakness in the Caucasus ITTL means the Russians win there decisively and move into eastern Anatolia. The Ottoman military strategy would never prioritize a region they hadn’t owned for a century over their core territory.