What if the German General Staff realizes by early 1943 that while outright defeating an Allied invasion using the Northern French beaches at the Pas de Calais or Normandy areas would be very difficult, the Wehrmacht still posses enough strength to make either a very uninviting proposition. Landings at either location will, at the very least, be an incredible bloodbath with the small possibility of being repulsed into the sea. In other words, while they can no longer win, they can still make the Allies take the long way around to the Rhine. In this case, the goal is to steer the Allies into landing in Southern France or somewhat less preferably, the beaches located on the Bay of Biscay*.
To accomplish this, the Germans strip several divisions from Southern France and the Med to reinforce the Normandy beaches to the level of the Pas de Calais, in the process making the Cote d'Azur a much more alluring landing location. More resources are poured into the Atlantic Wall defense, with greater Organization Todt efforts aimed at building a strong defense in depth set of fortifications for German defenders.
*I've always assumed that the topography and geology of the Belgian and Dutch coasts makes them lousy propositions for a D-Day scale invasion. Though faced with dealing with the U-boat infested waters of the Bay of Biscay or the long march to the Rhine from Nice, this may be re-evaluated.
To accomplish this, the Germans strip several divisions from Southern France and the Med to reinforce the Normandy beaches to the level of the Pas de Calais, in the process making the Cote d'Azur a much more alluring landing location. More resources are poured into the Atlantic Wall defense, with greater Organization Todt efforts aimed at building a strong defense in depth set of fortifications for German defenders.
*I've always assumed that the topography and geology of the Belgian and Dutch coasts makes them lousy propositions for a D-Day scale invasion. Though faced with dealing with the U-boat infested waters of the Bay of Biscay or the long march to the Rhine from Nice, this may be re-evaluated.