From Exile to Triumph: a Western Roman Timeline

Or maybe we will see him try to finally destroy the threat of barbarians to the north that in this time still brought devastating dieases and finally kill the threat of the sasssinda bit do the Roman Empire will survive we need a vastly different personality for Justinian still and what about the great plague will that be worse or better
 
As always, great update! But regarding Theoderic's involvement, a question naturally arises. What were his real plans? There must be something more than having a puppet on the western throne, although this would be a great achievement nonetheless...
Well if the opportunity of having a puppet emperor on the throne is not enough, I can add that Theodoric didn’t really approve Marcianus’s decision to stop supporting Amalaric during the war against the Visigoths. He lost the opportunity to bring Spain under his influence and “only” gained a marriage between Procopius and Amalasuntha. Still good but not enough for Theodoric’s ambitions. This and the desire for new land outside Pannonia...

We have to see first how the realm of Justinian will develop TTL. This one would be quite the ulterior chasm from OTL so what would happen there would affect the WRE as well.
The incoming update about Justinian is going to represent a “cornerstone” in this timeline since it’s beginning. Not the only one but certainly the first and maybe the most important one.

k I just hope Justinian does just smart stuff instead of what he did otl.
Don’t worry, he won’t have the chance to make the same mistakes in this timeline, considering the different situation in the West but also in the East.
We're still in the early 500s keep that in mind the birth of Muhammad could be butterflied away. On another note, since we were speaking of Justinian I'm thinking that since he's still the same ambitious man that he might try liberating the Christians in Mesopotamia by conquering it from the sassanids and with that probably make the lakhmids a byzantine vassal again. This would lead to the lakhmids and ghassanids both competing for Arabian dominance and well probably see a Christian Arabian kingdom form in Arabia that's a client state to the Byzantines. Now while the latter part could go either way I do believe Justinian conquering Mesopotamia is very likely since the area is rich and majority Christian and he also doesn't have a western Roman empire to be obsessed with reconquering
I think you are overestimating Justinian: we are not talking here about the vandals or the goths, we are talking about the Persian, the empire that was able to defeat even Belisarius. Beside was Mesopotamia majority Christian during the VI century? In this case the locals would probably be just heretics in the eyes of Justinian.
Justinian would need to be more tolerant than he was OTL. Don't underestimate the divide that the Byzantines helped to foster when it came to some of their particularly hardline stances on religion. Of course if he does tolerate the other sects of Christianity, it could be a massive boon for the Empire's long term prospects thanks to not alienating a huge portion of the Christian world.

I could also see them taking Mesopotamia but it would be very hard to hold due to logistical issues. Though if they hold it long enough to get it to pay for its own defense a lot of that could be alleviated. Though I do think that the Empires should focus on getting back Spain first. It was a fairly wealthy province, highly romanized and is held by what appears to be a Visigothic monarchy built on a teetering house of cards. That and North Africa.
Justinian was only the product of his age. The religious intolerance of the period was not an exclusive feature of Justinian’s personality but more a common aspect of the Christian Roman population of the VI century. This included both the Chalcedonians and the Monophysites. It’s going to be hard to find a compromise between the two.
Or maybe we will see him try to finally destroy the threat of barbarians to the north that in this time still brought devastating dieases and finally kill the threat of the sasssinda bit do the Roman Empire will survive we need a vastly different personality for Justinian still and what about the great plague will that be worse or better
About the great plague, it will be as deadly as OTL, but the lack of any event resembling the gothic war is going to help the Romans and Italy.
 
I think Mesopotamia at this was was a melting pot of religions. You had Kurdish pagans, Armenian migrants, Arab settlements, Persian urban communities, Assyrian communities, any Aramean or Greek exiles... I'm sure they were the most Christian parts of Persia, but that's not saying much given how predominant the Persian population was in Persia.
 
Or maybe we will see him try to finally destroy the threat of barbarians to the north that in this time still brought devastating dieases and finally kill the threat of the sasssinda bit do the Roman Empire will survive we need a vastly different personality for Justinian still and what about the great plague will that be worse or better

Germania should be the limit the Romans hardly should pass, albeit the first age of the Barbarian movements towards west was pratically ended and for three centuries at least there would soon be peace from those regions. If else Germania would be as OTL land of conquest of the Franks albeit Saxons and Thuringians and new and old Germans may develop as well by seeking a normalization with the Empire. Al least we won't see OTL the historical incongruence of a Roman Empire (plus without the Holy) in the European region lesser Roman of all. But, a Kingdom of Germania born by Frank collapse could be very interesting to see and interact in various ages with the Empire.

(also: add Frank invasion of Britannia in the possible future cards - depending if after Germania, and a Visigothic Spain will still exists, they would turn South or North...)

In short I see Germania more to fall towards Frank than Roman control, besides even if further fragmented they have already footholds there. And Rome's priority is more towards recovering lost provinces than ever wanting to risk Teutoburg II: electric boogaloo. Not even to pursuit the recovery of the Agri Decimated.
 
The Vandals are both the greatest immediate threat to Rome as well as the key to control over Gaul or Hispania, mainly due to the fact they hold the key islands in the western Med. Also between Sardegna and Africa Proconsularis you have a massive amount of food critical to the Empire's survival/expansion. The Vandals must fall if Rome is ever to be safe from existential threats at least.

As for the eventual problems from Arabia in the next century, honestly with a century to recover much of the old Empire, the WRE will be in an excellent position to shatter any attempts by the Arabs to pass into Africa if they support the ERE at the critical points. Besides Islam has most certainly been butterflied, and more importantly as long as no general like Khalid Ibn Al-Walid is born then the Arabs really do have no chance to reenact OTL's devastating advances.
 
Well if the opportunity of having a puppet emperor on the throne is not enough, I can add that Theodoric didn’t really approve Marcianus’s decision to stop supporting Amalaric during the war against the Visigoths. He lost the opportunity to bring Spain under his influence and “only” gained a marriage between Procopius and Amalasuntha. Still good but not enough for Theodoric’s ambitions. This and the desire for new land outside Pannonia...

Looking greedily at Illyria, probably?
 
I think that it just would be more funny and better if isalm still exist and why would islam be butterfly?

You can't just expect the exact same religion to occur after a century or more after a massive change in world history, you'd have to murder a thousand butterflies to do so. I mean might as well make it so Sikhism also pops into existence during the 15th century. Because you're already disregarding not only the fact that the people who founded that religion don't exist, but also that the conditions and events that led to the need for said religion being made are no longer the same. It's a bit lazy writing, I mean what's to stop somebody else being the source of the next great faith instead?
 
Yes but one of the rules on this site that you can’t just justify everything through butterflies I This is a example caused why would this be butterflies arabi far away and massive change to world history it a big cahneg but not a massive
 
Yes but one of the rules on this site that you can’t just justify everything through butterflies I This is a example caused why would this be butterflies arabi far away and massive change to world history it a big cahneg but not a massive

Far away? Arab tribes and nations were heavily involved in Roman/Persian politics for the entire history of both empires. Plus this isn’t the same as inventing an outlandish scenario and saying, “idk I guess butterflies.” This is removing the causal factors that led to a historical event by more than 100 years and understandably coming to the conclusion that it may not occur in the same way as IOTL. Sure there may still be Arab expansions or even a religious movement out of arabia, but it will certainly not be Islam and it will certainly not involve the same people as IOTL
 
I think Mesopotamia at this was was a melting pot of religions. You had Kurdish pagans, Armenian migrants, Arab settlements, Persian urban communities, Assyrian communities, any Aramean or Greek exiles... I'm sure they were the most Christian parts of Persia, but that's not saying much given how predominant the Persian population was in Persia.
That is what I thought: influential but not dominant. They could play an important role in the future but their eventual rise is not something certain.
The Vandals are both the greatest immediate threat to Rome as well as the key to control over Gaul or Hispania, mainly due to the fact they hold the key islands in the western Med. Also between Sardegna and Africa Proconsularis you have a massive amount of food critical to the Empire's survival/expansion. The Vandals must fall if Rome is ever to be safe from existential threats at least.

As for the eventual problems from Arabia in the next century, honestly with a century to recover much of the old Empire, the WRE will be in an excellent position to shatter any attempts by the Arabs to pass into Africa if they support the ERE at the critical points. Besides Islam has most certainly been butterflied, and more importantly as long as no general like Khalid Ibn Al-Walid is born then the Arabs really do have no chance to reenact OTL's devastating advances.
Nepos and successor already did a great job in Italy but you are right, if Rome wants to once again dominate the western Mediterranean it has to crush the Vandals and secure the second largest city of the West.
Looking greedily at Illyria, probably?
Dalmatia and probably an hegemonic position inside the Roman army, like the one enjoyed by Ricimer, Aetius and Aspar. There is also the question of his successor and how he is going to interact with Rome.
Noricum maybe? I think they'll love the mines there
Another possible way of expansion.
You can't just expect the exact same religion to occur after a century or more after a massive change in world history, you'd have to murder a thousand butterflies to do so. I mean might as well make it so Sikhism also pops into existence during the 15th century. Because you're already disregarding not only the fact that the people who founded that religion don't exist, but also that the conditions and events that led to the need for said religion being made are no longer the same. It's a bit lazy writing, I mean what's to stop somebody else being the source of the next great faith instead?
Far away? Arab tribes and nations were heavily involved in Roman/Persian politics for the entire history of both empires. Plus this isn’t the same as inventing an outlandish scenario and saying, “idk I guess butterflies.” This is removing the causal factors that led to a historical event by more than 100 years and understandably coming to the conclusion that it may not occur in the same way as IOTL. Sure there may still be Arab expansions or even a religious movement out of arabia, but it will certainly not be Islam and it will certainly not involve the same people as IOTL
Ok here some important information: I recently gave a look to the poll about the Arabs and Islam.

The most popular option seems to be the rise of the Romano-Arab kingdoms while Islam is not going to be a factor here. I already started to work on this idea and the best way to implement it. Obviously the rise of the Arabs requires certain conditions and some of these conditions are the same that occurred OTL. However I want to say that you don’t have to worry about a simple and bland “copy-paste”. Timing, characters involved, main features of this expansion, religious aspect, Roman and Persian reaction are going to be different.
 
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The most popular option seems to be the rise of the Romano-Arab kingdoms while Islam is not going to be a factor here. I already started to work on this idea and the best way to implement it. Obviously the rise of the Arabs requires certain conditions and these conditions are the same that occurred OTL. However I want to say that you don’t have to worry about a simple and bland “copy-paste”. Timing, characters involved, main features of this expansion, religious aspect, Roman and Persian reaction are going to be different.

This is surely something never attempted before! I admit I never considered in all those years such a possibility.
 
This is surely something never attempted before! I admit I never considered in all those years such a possibility.
Well I hope this attempt doesn’t disappoint you.
The aim of this timeline ( if I’m able to complete it ) is to give the empire a change to recover from the disasters of the previous century before the beginning of a new period of crisis. A sort of new “crisis of the third century” with different premises, timing and with an empire constantly pressed by multiple different enemies.
 
Chapter XXXIII: The king and the emperor.
Chapter XXXIII

Since the end of the Pannonian campaign Rome had largely ignored the region, leaving the burden of reconstruction to the Goths. Emperor Nepos considered the Pannonian question as a solved problem and thought that the appointment of Roman civilian officers would be enough to preserve a certain degree of control over the recently reconquered territory. However after over 20 years and with the rise of Marcianus, who seemed to focus more on the western and internal question rather than the problems coming from the north, the region had gradually slipped away from Roman control. Roman administration survived, but its representatives were local Pannonian inhabitants directly appointed by Theodoricus and loyal to him. The military and civilian administrations were now completely under the control of a single man who could also count on the support of his own people. These two elements proved beneficial to his rule, since they combined the military security that the region desperately needed with an efficient administration that could help with the economical recovery of the population. As Magister Militum and representative of Roman authority in Pannonia, Theodoricus diligently implemented in the territory subjected to him, some of the decrees that the Roman emperors were at that time enacting in Italy, thus recognising their value and their benefits. Particularly important was the implementation of the law concerning the recovery of Pannonian land, later distributed among his own people, thus finally securing for the goths a place where to live.

Yet Theodoricus wasn’t completely satisfied. After having secured his control over Pannonia, he started to exert influence outside his domain. After having failed to secure the reunification with the Thracian Goths, Theodoricus sought compensation in the Visigothic kingdom. However his plan to install his nephew on the Visigothic throne didn’t succeed thanks to Frankish aggression followed by Rome’s recognition of Gesalec’s rule over the Visigoths. After this last failure to diplomatically increase his power outside the empire, Theodoricus attempted to increase his influence inside the empire. Despite his minimal involvement in the recent revolt led by Flavius Orestes, the emperor and his imperial court had good reason to think that Theodoricus was supposed to play an important role in the rebellion, probably to the point that he could have been the real leader of the revolt. His attitude toward Orestes only confirmed these suspects and probably he was already planning his next move after this setback.

Meanwhile in Constantinople the eastern Romans were experiencing a period of peace under their new emperor. Iustinus’s reign represented a period of changes, since Zeno and Anastasius’s religious policy was repealed in favour of a reconciliation with Rome. During his reign two men rose to prominence: Flavius Petrus Sabbatius Iustinianus and Flavius Iulius Procopius. The first one was a relative and the most probable successor to Iustinus while the second was Marcianus’s brother. After having acquire great fame during Anastasius’s reign, Procopius further increase it with his literary works: a description of the city of Constantinople during Anastasius’s reign, a biography about his deceased father and a history of the western half of the Roman world from Valentinianus’s assassination to the death of Anicius Olybrius. The small gap represented by Glycerius’s reign was briefly covered with Nepos’ biography. Other minor works included religious hymns, a panegyric of the new emperor and several letters he wrote to members of the eastern imperial administration, senators with similar cultural interests and even a couple of letters directed to the Persian prince Khosrow. Later these letters would be published by his daughter Constantina.

As a prominent representative of the previous regime and even after having initially supported Olybrius’s claim to the throne before giving his support to Iustinus, the new emperor decided to keep this brilliant man in the imperial court with the title of Quaestor Sacri Palatii. Thanks to this position, Procopius was able to exert great influence over the emperor and the empire, an influence that however clashed against the power of Iustinianus, the man that effectively managed imperial affairs. During his uncle’s reign, Iustinianus was able to repeal an old law concerning the prohibition for members of the senatorial class to marry someone socially inferior, thus granting him the possibility to marry his lover Theodora.

In 526 AC an earthquake destroyed the city of Antioch. Even thought it wasn’t the first earthquake in the history of the city, it proved to be really destructive with an huge number of victims, including Procopius, the last living son of western Roman emperor Procopius Anthemius. His sister Alypia died before him in 519 AC, after having spent the last years of her life helping the poor and the pilgrims in the city of Jerusalem. During the following year the old emperor died, not without suffering and was succeeded by Iustinianus. The Roman Empire was now entering a new period of its history, as relations between the emperors were about to change.
 
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I wonder what Theodoric is plotting, as being king in Pannonia and Magister Militum of the province apparently is not sufficient for him at this point - even for being the most powerful barbarian in the Western Empire. Only is being kept on the fringe - if he really wants to gain influence, he should make ouvertures to Rome (giving Orestes), reconcile with Marcianus and then visit the capital and seeking alliances. Being a second Ricimer can be appealing but plotting while staying into an angle won't be useful for him. Yet Justinian doesn't look to be favorable to Marcianus - his competition with Procopius may be a first signal of West-East friction

About future crisis of the Empire: as long it would still recover and live, it would be natural and physiological and welcomed to see and read of riots and invasions and defeats...
 
Theodoricus doesn’t have much time to change his policy now. I changed the year of his death, giving him a slightly longer life, but now we should start looking at his heir. Things are going to change here.
About Justinian I thought that his personality would lead to hostile relation between him and Marcianus. Probably I’m biased toward this emperor, but for narrative purpose this is necessary. Certainly we are going to see a different Restauratio Imperii.
Finally I want to say that I always enjoy more to read about time of crisis instead of time of peace. Hope this is true also for the people who are reading this timeline.
 
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