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The US civil war lasted from 1861-1865. But what if it had lasted longer? How long could the south have realistically hold on for and what if anything at all would the result of that be on the US?
The US civil war lasted from 1861-1865. But what if it had lasted longer? How long could the south have realistically hold on for and what if anything at all would the result of that be on the US?
The South could not last much belong what it did IOTL due to obvious manpower, financial, and logistical reasons. Militarily speaking, it's amazing that they lasted as long as they did.
If the South had achieved significantly better results before the fall of 1864 (i.e. winning a crushing victory at Gettysburg) and they are in a better military position in late 1864, then voters in the North will vote to throw out the Lincoln administration and put into place an administration either inclined to make peace or one with such political baggage that (as Lincoln himself foresaw) they would not be able to continue the war even if they wanted to.
Either way, I don't see much of a chance for the war to continue much past the spring of 1865.
Isn't the most obvious answer if the south had somehow comvinced the UK or France to back them?
European intervention in support of the CSA would have drastically shortened the war, not lengthened it - the US didn't have the wherewithal to survive the attentions of the RN.
European intervention in support of the CSA would have drastically shortened the war, not lengthened it - the US didn't have the wherewithal to survive the attentions of the RN.
IMHO if the south has a crushing victory at Gettysburg, Sherman does not reach Atlanta, etc you might have Lincoln lose in 1864 and the south let go. Any victories not on that scale will be marginal. As was pointed out the south was out of manpower, their logistics were in the crapper and getting worse, and large areas were being occupied by gents in blue suits. The longer the war goes on, the worse off they are. The only way for the war to last longer, absent British/French direct intervention, would be for the defeated armies to have a significant portion of the defeated take to the hills and forests for a partisan war. The result of that would make the burning of Atlanta and Richmond look like planned urban renewal and you could expect any population that supported partisans to see their homes go up in smoke at a minimum.
I disagree, the United States had a massive industrial capacity that could be brought to bear against Canadian bases leaving the RN with Bermuda and perhaps the Bahamas as potential bases if Halifax fell. If the CSA gets European aid early enough the question becomes is the US in a position to keep up (after Gettysburg I think they might, after Chattanooga definitely).
Perhaps the best bet for a longer war is for the US to suffer a defeat at Stone River in late 1862, another at significantly in 1863 with the draft riots and getting Cleburne to turn Missionary Ridge into a Ringgold Gap. Ideally, force the surrender of the Union army at Chattanooga and push back towards Nashville and/or southern Kentucky. With a Western theater locked in stalemate and Union resolve on the wane, the war still likely ends in a Union victory, but they'll need another Gettysburg or two to reinvigorate their efforts or risk Valladingham coming to power in 1864, who might be blocked by a Republican Congress opposed to his peace platform and creating a deadlock in the US Government.
I disagree, the United States had a massive industrial capacity that could be brought to bear against Canadian bases leaving the RN with Bermuda and perhaps the Bahamas as potential bases if Halifax fell. If the CSA gets European aid early enough the question becomes is the US in a position to keep up (after Gettysburg I think they might, after Chattanooga definitely).
Perhaps the best bet for a longer war is for the US to suffer a defeat at Stone River in late 1862, another at significantly in 1863 with the draft riots and getting Cleburne to turn Missionary Ridge into a Ringgold Gap. Ideally, force the surrender of the Union army at Chattanooga and push back towards Nashville and/or southern Kentucky. With a Western theater locked in stalemate and Union resolve on the wane, the war still likely ends in a Union victory, but they'll need another Gettysburg or two to reinvigorate their efforts or risk Valladingham coming to power in 1864, who might be blocked by a Republican Congress opposed to his peace platform and creating a deadlock in the US Government.
The problem with most scenarios for 1861-1863 that improve Confederate abilities is that they possess a high degree chance of actually bringing the war to an earlier conclusion by bringing in the Anglo-French. I'd thus recommend 1864 as the best the bet, but that too most be tempered by the fact that a Confederacy that smashes Sherman at Cassville or Peachetree Creek or Grant at North Anna, could result in an McClellan Presidency that could result in a shorter conflict as well as he seeks peace. You could pull an end run around this in that peace talks last into the fall of 1865, meaning the war doesn't "officially" end until after the IOTL date, but that seems cheating to me.
Therefore, I propose a late 1864 scenario:
1) Wheeler's Cavalry and the Georgia State Militia repeatedly had opportunities to smash up Sherman's logistics trail during the March to the Sea but failed to do so; ATL, let us presume they do so. Sherman ultimately is either forced into a situation where he's too far into the march to turn back and is without supplies, either in the Georgia interior or if he reaches Savannah still. There was a Confederates there of about 10,000 men and well dug in that historically decided to flee; I do not rate the chances highly of a starving Federal force defeating them. Either way, his forces can probably be compelled to surrender somewhere.
This is major, as without Sherman, the Confederates can likely reinforce Fort Fisher easily enough and thus keep Wilmington open and thus supplies going to Lee. There's also the likelihood that Lee could receive reinforcements of around 10-20,000 men, which, when combined with the improved material conditions, easily extend the conflict around Richmond my many weeks if not months. As an interesting historical note, this also likely means somewhere around a few hundred to possibly a few thousand Blacks get to serve in the Confederate Army as such recruits had begun to be raised by March.
2) No Fatal Halt at Cedar Creek in October. Early's forces were in a position to continue the assault and Gordon was pushing for such, but ultimately Early dug his feet in and such never came. Had it, the Confederate victory probably would've been complete and the Federals once again forced out of the Valley. The foodstuffs had largely already been destroyed by this point, but Early still in the Valley is going to keep Washington anxious and that means Grant is going to have detail forces to screen it and to eventually launch another campaign for it.
3) Hood and the Army of Tennessee missed an opportunity to annihilate Schofield at Spring Hill. Instead of entrenching directly along the road junction, Hood camped his army on the side of it and the Federals passed by unmolested, leading to the disastrous Battle of Franklin the next day. Had Hood entrenched his forces, it would've resulted in a reverse Franklin that destroy's Schofields command. Without this force and the disaster of Franklin, Hood's Army can proceed to Nashville where they now face a numerically equal force, but one much less experienced than their Confederate counterparts and containing, for example, a force of Federal Cav without horses. George Thomas is definitely Hood's better, but the correlation of forces is in favor of Hood. IIRC, John Logan was dispatched with orders to replace Thomas and attack immediately IOTL, and here this might occur as Washington becomes anxious. In such a situation, I firmly give the advantage to the Confederates, as entrenched and veteran troops facing equal numbers would not go well for the Federals. In the aftermath of such an engagement there is a serious chance Hood could re-take Nashville.
Alternatively, Hood could, as Grant feared he would, go around Nashville and slip into Kentucky. Such definitely would force Grant to detach several Corps to the West and extend things out around Richmond farther. More disastrously, he takes Nashville and then does a Kentucky invasion. Such effectively restores the Western Theater to where it was in late 1862.
With these changes, it's entirely possible the war lasts into the Fall of 1865, if not into 1866 in earnest; the Confederate Government slipping into Texas definitely could make the 1866 option more viable as that Department was still steady until the very end for the most part.
The problem with most scenarios for 1861-1863 that improve Confederate abilities is that they possess a high degree chance of actually bringing the war to an earlier conclusion by bringing in the Anglo-French. I'd thus recommend 1864 as the best the bet, but that too most be tempered by the fact that a Confederacy that smashes Sherman at Cassville or Peachetree Creek or Grant at North Anna, could result in an McClellan Presidency that could result in a shorter conflict as well as he seeks peace. You could pull an end run around this in that peace talks last into the fall of 1865, meaning the war doesn't "officially" end until after the IOTL date, but that seems cheating to me.
Therefore, I propose a late 1864 scenario:
1) Wheeler's Cavalry and the Georgia State Militia repeatedly had opportunities to smash up Sherman's logistics trail during the March to the Sea but failed to do so; ATL, let us presume they do so. Sherman ultimately is either forced into a situation where he's too far into the march to turn back and is without supplies, either in the Georgia interior or if he reaches Savannah still. There was a Confederates there of about 10,000 men and well dug in that historically decided to flee; I do not rate the chances highly of a starving Federal force defeating them. Either way, his forces can probably be compelled to surrender somewhere.
This is major, as without Sherman, the Confederates can likely reinforce Fort Fisher easily enough and thus keep Wilmington open and thus supplies going to Lee. There's also the likelihood that Lee could receive reinforcements of around 10-20,000 men, which, when combined with the improved material conditions, easily extend the conflict around Richmond my many weeks if not months. As an interesting historical note, this also likely means somewhere around a few hundred to possibly a few thousand Blacks get to serve in the Confederate Army as such recruits had begun to be raised by March.
2) No Fatal Halt at Cedar Creek in October. Early's forces were in a position to continue the assault and Gordon was pushing for such, but ultimately Early dug his feet in and such never came. Had it, the Confederate victory probably would've been complete and the Federals once again forced out of the Valley. The foodstuffs had largely already been destroyed by this point, but Early still in the Valley is going to keep Washington anxious and that means Grant is going to have detail forces to screen it and to eventually launch another campaign for it.
3) Hood and the Army of Tennessee missed an opportunity to annihilate Schofield at Spring Hill. Instead of entrenching directly along the road junction, Hood camped his army on the side of it and the Federals passed by unmolested, leading to the disastrous Battle of Franklin the next day. Had Hood entrenched his forces, it would've resulted in a reverse Franklin that destroy's Schofields command. Without this force and the disaster of Franklin, Hood's Army can proceed to Nashville where they now face a numerically equal force, but one much less experienced than their Confederate counterparts and containing, for example, a force of Federal Cav without horses. George Thomas is definitely Hood's better, but the correlation of forces is in favor of Hood. IIRC, John Logan was dispatched with orders to replace Thomas and attack immediately IOTL, and here this might occur as Washington becomes anxious. In such a situation, I firmly give the advantage to the Confederates, as entrenched and veteran troops facing equal numbers would not go well for the Federals. In the aftermath of such an engagement there is a serious chance Hood could re-take Nashville.
Alternatively, Hood could, as Grant feared he would, go around Nashville and slip into Kentucky. Such definitely would force Grant to detach several Corps to the West and extend things out around Richmond farther. More disastrously, he takes Nashville and then does a Kentucky invasion. Such effectively restores the Western Theater to where it was in late 1862.
With these changes, it's entirely possible the war lasts into the Fall of 1865, if not into 1866 in earnest; the Confederate Government slipping into Texas definitely could make the 1866 option more viable as that Department was still steady until the very end for the most part.