I don't think too many black voters would be keen about a once-segregationist. I'd say there's a chance Nixon wins it against Wallace.
Alternate Electoral Maps II
- Thread starter Aaaaasima
- Start date
- Status
The various factions opposed to Trump across all parties manage to put a national unity ticket together (Green) and your map is the result?
I think under those circumstances some progressive third party candidate might win in DC.
As Fed pointed out, D.C was 71% black in 1972, so I see no way Wallace would have won it. Maybe it would have gone for a left-leaning third party, but in a two-way race, Nixon would only need to emphasize his history of support for civil rights to beat the former arch-segregationist there. I believe a Gallup poll for 1972 had Nixon beating Wallace something like 57-32 amongst black voters, and with those numbers DC would go for Nixon almost certainly.
Actually it's what I think would happen if I ran against Trump with no Democrat in the race
MoralisticCommunist
Banned
The Seventh Party System: Part LII
Map of the United States
Part I - Metropotamia
Part II - Alta California
Part III - North Carolina
Part IV - New Jersey
Part V - Adams
Part VI - Alabama
Part VII - Rhode Island
Part VIII - Sequoyah
Part IX - Assenisipia
Part X - East Florida
Part XI - Tennessee
Part XII - Kansas
Part XIII - Dakota
Part XIV - Arizona
Part XV - Delaware
Part XVI - Oregon
Part XVII - Ozark
Part XVIII - New Hampshire
Part XIX - Western Connecticut
Part XX - New York
Part XXI - Santo Domingo
Part XXII - South Carolina
Part XXIII - Baja California
Part XXIV - Chersonesus
Part XXV - Canal Zone Territory
Part XXVI - West Florida
Part XXVII - Missouri
Part XXVIII - Colorado
Part XXIX - Trinidad and Tobago
Part XXX - Pennsylvania
Part XXXI - Wisconsin
Part XXXII - Lincoln
Part XXXIII - Deseret
Part XXXIV - Platte
Part XXXV - Kiribati
Part XXXVI - New Mexico
Part XXXVII - Maine
Part XXXVIII - Alaska
Part XXXIX - Hamilton
Part XXXX - Mississippi
Part XXXXI - North Virginia
Part XXXXII - Bioko
Part XXXXIII - Hawaii
Part XXXXIV - Louisiana
Part XXXXV - Seward
Part XXXXVI - Illinoia
Part XXXXVII - Georgia
Part XXXXVIII - Columbia
Part XXXXIX - Maryland
Part L - Texas
Part LI - District of Columbia
Vermont is the oddball state of New England, having possessed a French speaking majority throughout the entirety of the 20th century, and is also currently the least populated state in the entire Union.
The history of Vermont's French majority dates all the way back to 1850s, when the start of the Industrial Revolution saw an explosion in textile mills all across New England. Over the next seven decades, nearly a million French Canadians would end up immigrating to the US, the majority of which came to New England. Vermont in particular, being an already small and sparsely populated state, would soon boom with Canadien immigrants who came to build the state's railroads and work in the state's logging industry. While language was not much of an issue in the late 1800s, when World War II broke out in 1911 after France declared war on Britain anti-French sentiment began to rise.
While efforts to suppress the French language might have worked in Louisiana where Cajuns formed a minority, in Vermont the Canadiens were a majority and as such the Republican party under Governor Josiah Gagneux was able to amend the Vermont state constitution in 1913 to enshrine both French and English as official languages. This would make Vermont the third state in the Union to officially be bilingual, after Media California and New Mexico in 1880 and 1902 respectively.
With Vermont now being seen as a refuge for French Americans many French Canadians in neighboring New Hampshire and Maine would end up moving to Vermont, further solidifying it's French speaking majority. During the Great Depression many English speakers left the state to work on FDR's major public works in both the South and West, leaving it so that by 1940 71% of the population spoke French as their primary language.
This would be the peak of French speakers in Vermont, however, as the trend of white flight soon sent many WASP Americans back into the state of Vermont, though the number of French speakers still remained above 60% of the population. The real surge in Anglo migration to the state however would come in the 1970s, 1980s, and 1990s when the hippies of the 50s and 60s, now middle aged adults, began to look towards finding the perfect place to settle down to live a nice quiet life, and while many did end up moving to the progressive West Coast many of those located in New England ended up going to the forested hills of Vermont, already known for its tolerance of minorities such as the French.
Coupled with the growing social conservatism of French Vermonters as a reaction to the influx of Anglo immigrants the demise of Republican hegemony was imminent. And in this crucial moment, with both the Canadien and Yankee populations of Vermont turning away from the Republican party, the Republican leadership made its most terrible blunder, deciding to side with the Anglos against the French. Governor Arkwright Snelling, an out of stater Republican from Pennsylvania was convinced that if the Republicans could capitalize on the votes of out of staters they would be able to avoid the social conservatism of French Vermonters and focus entirely on socially liberal policies consistent with their Dewey Republican principles. Attempting to appeal to the secular hippies with a bill to end public funding of the state's Catholic schools, Vermont's French population saw right through this ploy and knew it was a direct attack on French minority rights, since nearly every Canadien that was religious in Vermont was also a Catholic that sent their children to Catholic school.
In direct reaction to the Republicans' attempts to remove public funding for Catholic schools the French Republicans walked away from the GOP to form their own party, the Bloc Canadien. Representing the interests of French Canadians, or Canadiens for short, the party soon snatched up all of the Republicans' French base, while the rising Progressives swept up the hippie population, leaving the Republicans nearly shut out of parliament after winning only three seats in the 1984 election.
While the Bloc Canadien would rule Vermont for four years, the Progressives soon learned to become a bilingual party, much like its sister parties in Las Columnas states, and managed to capture enough of the socially liberal Canadien vote to gain a majority in 1988. From that point onward, the Progressives would become the defacto ruling party of Vermont, much like the Republicans were the defacto ruling party in the rest of New England. The fact that Anglos have managed to compromise a slim majority of the state's population ever since 2003 proved to only help the Progressives, with the Bloc Canadien now being mathematically unable to form a majority by themselves. The MMP reform made to the Senate also further hurt the Bloc Canadien since many of its voters are rural while those of the Progressives tend to be concentrated in large cities and college towns.
However the Second Great Depression hurt the Progressives hard as many of its voters shifted to left wing parties such as the United Left and the newly founded Vermont Insoumise. Vermont Insoumise is a left wing Francophone party founded by Beaumont Sanders who argue that the influx of English speaking college students and businesses was damaging both the state's economy and its culture and that Vermont would be much better off without "imperialist America" as an independent country with only one official language, French.
While gains from the once again decimated Republican party would allow the Progressives to continue governing with a solid majority, as the economy continued to falter many lost hope in the ability of the Progressive party to fix the economy and shifted to left and right wing extremes. In 2014 the Confederation of Regions party was founded by right wing populists who believed that it was in fact that the Canadiens' fault, not the Yankees', that Vermont's economy continued to falter, and began to push for the abolition of French as an official language so that the Canadien minority would be forced to learn English in school and could then be fully assimilated into the "superior Anglo-Saxon culture."
The populist wave of racial and ethnic anger that shook the country in 2016 also hit Vermont, resulting in massive gains for both Vermont Insoumise as well as the Confederation of Regions, leaving the Progressives without a governing majority. As such, for the first time since 2006 the party was forced into coalition with the Greens, which while sharing the Progressives' socially liberal views was far more centrist on economic manners, sometimes becoming almost indistinguishable from the Republicans.
2018 would prove to be no different, as Vermont Insoumise and the Confederation of Regions continued to gain more seats at the expense of the Progressives and Bloc Canadien. However, in this election the Republicans also managed to make a comeback, capturing a large part of the Anglo economically right wing vote from the Greens, letting the Republicans gain the title as the third largest party for the first time since 2006.
With both the Progressives and Greens now suffering heavy losses, the path towards forming a majority government looked near impossible. On the far left both the United Left and Vermont Insoumise refused to work with the Progressives, while on the right the socially conservative Confederation of Regions refused to work with the Dewey influenced Republicans. The Greens also refused to work with the socially conservative Bloc Canadien, blocking any sort of centrist alliance, leaving the only possibilities that of a grand coalition. Now the only question remained, would it be a grand coalition of socially with the Progressives and Bloc Canadien, or would it be a grand coalition economically between the Progressives and Republicans.
In the end, the Progressives' refusal to reinstate public funding for Catholic schools put the nail in the coffin for the Bloc Canadien, leaving the Progressive-Republican government as the only option. While socially very little policies would change, economically massive tax cuts and deep cutting austerity measures were put in place at the Republicans' request, leading to the introduction of university tuition fees for the first time since the 1990s.
Now with both the Progressive and Republican parties being painted as sellouts by their own bases the government Vermont continues to walk on the thinnest of tightropes, knowing fully well that their grand coalition gambit is unlikely to work a second time and that the 2020 election could very well put deal the final blow to the Vermont Progressive Party.
Government:
Progressive/Progressiste - The ruling party of Vermont for the past three decades, this election has put them at their lowest amount of seats since the election of 1984. With bases among such diverse groups from socially liberal retirees and college students to cosmopolitan Canadiens and non-white minorities, the party has struggled to fight off the large variety of special interests parties which continue to eat away its base from all directions. The party's deal with the Republicans to end free college and introduce university fees has been especially controversial, leading to massive student protests across the state from the tens of thousands of young people who only came to Vermont's liberal arts colleges for the free tuition.
Republicans - Once as dominant in the Green Mountain State as the Democratic party was in Jim Crow era South Carolina the GOP of modern day Vermont remains a shadow of its former self constricted entirely to the vote of middle and upper class Anglophones. Dominated as always by Dewey Republicans they are socially liberal enough to acceptable to the state's average Anglo, but until recently most of them chose the more radically socially liberal Greens over the only moderately socially liberal Republicans. However with the Progressive-Green government of 2016 to 2018 proving just how incompetent many Green politicians are the tide has turned once in the Republicans' favor, allowing them enough seats to overtake the Greens. At the same time, their compromise with the Progressive in keeping Vermont's hefty corporate tax and punishing regulations has left its conservative base furious with the GOP's inability to allow for true ease of business.
Supply:
Independent/Divers - Just like the rest of Northern New England Vermont has a long tradition of independent politicians who focus more on local issues than ideological wars. With the vast majority of independent politicians being simply local residents' associations of various townships it requires little more than a small loan of a million dollars to bribe their votes.
Opposition:
Bloc Canadien - A Francophone party founded to protect the interests of Vermont Canadiens, in recent times it has become a party for French speaking conservatives, especially those who are socially conservative. While often times supporting government intervention and being viewed as left of center economically, on social issues they remained firmly on the right, still refusing to recognize the legitimacy of gay marriage and pushing for the public funding of religiously run Catholic schools. In recent years, with the rise of Vermont Insoumise the party has been trending downwards with more and more people jumping ship from the extreme social conservatism of the Bloc Canadien for the socialist Vermont Insoumise.
Vermont Insoumise - A left wing nationalist, anti-imperialist, Francophone socialist party founded in 2010 by Beaumont Sanders, the party was created in reaction to the globalist politics of the Progressive party which Sanders believed to have hurt the Canadien worker. While the Progressive party busted the massive Confederation des Travailleuers Catholiques allegedly to secularize Vermont society, Sanders says this was done just to keep the Canadien worker down as they "colonized" Vermont by enticing students through tuition-free universities and retirees by exempting all Social Security income from taxes. And with Vermont 45.6% French speaking population being flooded with more English speaking college students and retirees every year many poorer Canadiens have turned towards the party which promises to build a wall and make the Yankees pay for it.
Greens/Verts - A bilingual social democratic party which is much more economically right wing than the Progressives, they used to have a strong hold on Vermont's yuppie population who were socially liberal but fiscally conservative. However the incoherent and irresponsible governance of the Greens during their coalition with the Progressives which saw homeopathy legalized and GMOs criminalized only hurt the Vermont economy even more, leading to its present day unemployment rate of over 17%, a rate which would be even higher if you account for the 30% of the population which consists of retired senior citizens.
Confederation of Regions - A right wing populist party against French minority rights, they want to revoke French as an official language and make it just English so that the Canadien minority can be assimilated into the Anglo-American population. The party is also notably socially conservative, and thinks that gay rights are an affront to "God's plan."
United Left/Gauche Unitaire - A bilingual socialist party which stands as a catch all for far left radicals, they are vehemently opposed to Vermont Insoumise for being nationalistic and xenophobic against English speakers. As such, the vast majority of the party's membership comes from English speaking socialists and communists, but there are also some Canadien socialists and communists who possess an internationalist view and vote for the Gauche Unitaire.
Map of the United States
Part I - Metropotamia
Part II - Alta California
Part III - North Carolina
Part IV - New Jersey
Part V - Adams
Part VI - Alabama
Part VII - Rhode Island
Part VIII - Sequoyah
Part IX - Assenisipia
Part X - East Florida
Part XI - Tennessee
Part XII - Kansas
Part XIII - Dakota
Part XIV - Arizona
Part XV - Delaware
Part XVI - Oregon
Part XVII - Ozark
Part XVIII - New Hampshire
Part XIX - Western Connecticut
Part XX - New York
Part XXI - Santo Domingo
Part XXII - South Carolina
Part XXIII - Baja California
Part XXIV - Chersonesus
Part XXV - Canal Zone Territory
Part XXVI - West Florida
Part XXVII - Missouri
Part XXVIII - Colorado
Part XXIX - Trinidad and Tobago
Part XXX - Pennsylvania
Part XXXI - Wisconsin
Part XXXII - Lincoln
Part XXXIII - Deseret
Part XXXIV - Platte
Part XXXV - Kiribati
Part XXXVI - New Mexico
Part XXXVII - Maine
Part XXXVIII - Alaska
Part XXXIX - Hamilton
Part XXXX - Mississippi
Part XXXXI - North Virginia
Part XXXXII - Bioko
Part XXXXIII - Hawaii
Part XXXXIV - Louisiana
Part XXXXV - Seward
Part XXXXVI - Illinoia
Part XXXXVII - Georgia
Part XXXXVIII - Columbia
Part XXXXIX - Maryland
Part L - Texas
Part LI - District of Columbia
Vermont is the oddball state of New England, having possessed a French speaking majority throughout the entirety of the 20th century, and is also currently the least populated state in the entire Union.
The history of Vermont's French majority dates all the way back to 1850s, when the start of the Industrial Revolution saw an explosion in textile mills all across New England. Over the next seven decades, nearly a million French Canadians would end up immigrating to the US, the majority of which came to New England. Vermont in particular, being an already small and sparsely populated state, would soon boom with Canadien immigrants who came to build the state's railroads and work in the state's logging industry. While language was not much of an issue in the late 1800s, when World War II broke out in 1911 after France declared war on Britain anti-French sentiment began to rise.
While efforts to suppress the French language might have worked in Louisiana where Cajuns formed a minority, in Vermont the Canadiens were a majority and as such the Republican party under Governor Josiah Gagneux was able to amend the Vermont state constitution in 1913 to enshrine both French and English as official languages. This would make Vermont the third state in the Union to officially be bilingual, after Media California and New Mexico in 1880 and 1902 respectively.
With Vermont now being seen as a refuge for French Americans many French Canadians in neighboring New Hampshire and Maine would end up moving to Vermont, further solidifying it's French speaking majority. During the Great Depression many English speakers left the state to work on FDR's major public works in both the South and West, leaving it so that by 1940 71% of the population spoke French as their primary language.
This would be the peak of French speakers in Vermont, however, as the trend of white flight soon sent many WASP Americans back into the state of Vermont, though the number of French speakers still remained above 60% of the population. The real surge in Anglo migration to the state however would come in the 1970s, 1980s, and 1990s when the hippies of the 50s and 60s, now middle aged adults, began to look towards finding the perfect place to settle down to live a nice quiet life, and while many did end up moving to the progressive West Coast many of those located in New England ended up going to the forested hills of Vermont, already known for its tolerance of minorities such as the French.
Coupled with the growing social conservatism of French Vermonters as a reaction to the influx of Anglo immigrants the demise of Republican hegemony was imminent. And in this crucial moment, with both the Canadien and Yankee populations of Vermont turning away from the Republican party, the Republican leadership made its most terrible blunder, deciding to side with the Anglos against the French. Governor Arkwright Snelling, an out of stater Republican from Pennsylvania was convinced that if the Republicans could capitalize on the votes of out of staters they would be able to avoid the social conservatism of French Vermonters and focus entirely on socially liberal policies consistent with their Dewey Republican principles. Attempting to appeal to the secular hippies with a bill to end public funding of the state's Catholic schools, Vermont's French population saw right through this ploy and knew it was a direct attack on French minority rights, since nearly every Canadien that was religious in Vermont was also a Catholic that sent their children to Catholic school.
In direct reaction to the Republicans' attempts to remove public funding for Catholic schools the French Republicans walked away from the GOP to form their own party, the Bloc Canadien. Representing the interests of French Canadians, or Canadiens for short, the party soon snatched up all of the Republicans' French base, while the rising Progressives swept up the hippie population, leaving the Republicans nearly shut out of parliament after winning only three seats in the 1984 election.
While the Bloc Canadien would rule Vermont for four years, the Progressives soon learned to become a bilingual party, much like its sister parties in Las Columnas states, and managed to capture enough of the socially liberal Canadien vote to gain a majority in 1988. From that point onward, the Progressives would become the defacto ruling party of Vermont, much like the Republicans were the defacto ruling party in the rest of New England. The fact that Anglos have managed to compromise a slim majority of the state's population ever since 2003 proved to only help the Progressives, with the Bloc Canadien now being mathematically unable to form a majority by themselves. The MMP reform made to the Senate also further hurt the Bloc Canadien since many of its voters are rural while those of the Progressives tend to be concentrated in large cities and college towns.
However the Second Great Depression hurt the Progressives hard as many of its voters shifted to left wing parties such as the United Left and the newly founded Vermont Insoumise. Vermont Insoumise is a left wing Francophone party founded by Beaumont Sanders who argue that the influx of English speaking college students and businesses was damaging both the state's economy and its culture and that Vermont would be much better off without "imperialist America" as an independent country with only one official language, French.
While gains from the once again decimated Republican party would allow the Progressives to continue governing with a solid majority, as the economy continued to falter many lost hope in the ability of the Progressive party to fix the economy and shifted to left and right wing extremes. In 2014 the Confederation of Regions party was founded by right wing populists who believed that it was in fact that the Canadiens' fault, not the Yankees', that Vermont's economy continued to falter, and began to push for the abolition of French as an official language so that the Canadien minority would be forced to learn English in school and could then be fully assimilated into the "superior Anglo-Saxon culture."
The populist wave of racial and ethnic anger that shook the country in 2016 also hit Vermont, resulting in massive gains for both Vermont Insoumise as well as the Confederation of Regions, leaving the Progressives without a governing majority. As such, for the first time since 2006 the party was forced into coalition with the Greens, which while sharing the Progressives' socially liberal views was far more centrist on economic manners, sometimes becoming almost indistinguishable from the Republicans.
2018 would prove to be no different, as Vermont Insoumise and the Confederation of Regions continued to gain more seats at the expense of the Progressives and Bloc Canadien. However, in this election the Republicans also managed to make a comeback, capturing a large part of the Anglo economically right wing vote from the Greens, letting the Republicans gain the title as the third largest party for the first time since 2006.
With both the Progressives and Greens now suffering heavy losses, the path towards forming a majority government looked near impossible. On the far left both the United Left and Vermont Insoumise refused to work with the Progressives, while on the right the socially conservative Confederation of Regions refused to work with the Dewey influenced Republicans. The Greens also refused to work with the socially conservative Bloc Canadien, blocking any sort of centrist alliance, leaving the only possibilities that of a grand coalition. Now the only question remained, would it be a grand coalition of socially with the Progressives and Bloc Canadien, or would it be a grand coalition economically between the Progressives and Republicans.
In the end, the Progressives' refusal to reinstate public funding for Catholic schools put the nail in the coffin for the Bloc Canadien, leaving the Progressive-Republican government as the only option. While socially very little policies would change, economically massive tax cuts and deep cutting austerity measures were put in place at the Republicans' request, leading to the introduction of university tuition fees for the first time since the 1990s.
Now with both the Progressive and Republican parties being painted as sellouts by their own bases the government Vermont continues to walk on the thinnest of tightropes, knowing fully well that their grand coalition gambit is unlikely to work a second time and that the 2020 election could very well put deal the final blow to the Vermont Progressive Party.
Government:
Progressive/Progressiste - The ruling party of Vermont for the past three decades, this election has put them at their lowest amount of seats since the election of 1984. With bases among such diverse groups from socially liberal retirees and college students to cosmopolitan Canadiens and non-white minorities, the party has struggled to fight off the large variety of special interests parties which continue to eat away its base from all directions. The party's deal with the Republicans to end free college and introduce university fees has been especially controversial, leading to massive student protests across the state from the tens of thousands of young people who only came to Vermont's liberal arts colleges for the free tuition.
Republicans - Once as dominant in the Green Mountain State as the Democratic party was in Jim Crow era South Carolina the GOP of modern day Vermont remains a shadow of its former self constricted entirely to the vote of middle and upper class Anglophones. Dominated as always by Dewey Republicans they are socially liberal enough to acceptable to the state's average Anglo, but until recently most of them chose the more radically socially liberal Greens over the only moderately socially liberal Republicans. However with the Progressive-Green government of 2016 to 2018 proving just how incompetent many Green politicians are the tide has turned once in the Republicans' favor, allowing them enough seats to overtake the Greens. At the same time, their compromise with the Progressive in keeping Vermont's hefty corporate tax and punishing regulations has left its conservative base furious with the GOP's inability to allow for true ease of business.
Supply:
Independent/Divers - Just like the rest of Northern New England Vermont has a long tradition of independent politicians who focus more on local issues than ideological wars. With the vast majority of independent politicians being simply local residents' associations of various townships it requires little more than a small loan of a million dollars to bribe their votes.
Opposition:
Bloc Canadien - A Francophone party founded to protect the interests of Vermont Canadiens, in recent times it has become a party for French speaking conservatives, especially those who are socially conservative. While often times supporting government intervention and being viewed as left of center economically, on social issues they remained firmly on the right, still refusing to recognize the legitimacy of gay marriage and pushing for the public funding of religiously run Catholic schools. In recent years, with the rise of Vermont Insoumise the party has been trending downwards with more and more people jumping ship from the extreme social conservatism of the Bloc Canadien for the socialist Vermont Insoumise.
Vermont Insoumise - A left wing nationalist, anti-imperialist, Francophone socialist party founded in 2010 by Beaumont Sanders, the party was created in reaction to the globalist politics of the Progressive party which Sanders believed to have hurt the Canadien worker. While the Progressive party busted the massive Confederation des Travailleuers Catholiques allegedly to secularize Vermont society, Sanders says this was done just to keep the Canadien worker down as they "colonized" Vermont by enticing students through tuition-free universities and retirees by exempting all Social Security income from taxes. And with Vermont 45.6% French speaking population being flooded with more English speaking college students and retirees every year many poorer Canadiens have turned towards the party which promises to build a wall and make the Yankees pay for it.
Greens/Verts - A bilingual social democratic party which is much more economically right wing than the Progressives, they used to have a strong hold on Vermont's yuppie population who were socially liberal but fiscally conservative. However the incoherent and irresponsible governance of the Greens during their coalition with the Progressives which saw homeopathy legalized and GMOs criminalized only hurt the Vermont economy even more, leading to its present day unemployment rate of over 17%, a rate which would be even higher if you account for the 30% of the population which consists of retired senior citizens.
Confederation of Regions - A right wing populist party against French minority rights, they want to revoke French as an official language and make it just English so that the Canadien minority can be assimilated into the Anglo-American population. The party is also notably socially conservative, and thinks that gay rights are an affront to "God's plan."
United Left/Gauche Unitaire - A bilingual socialist party which stands as a catch all for far left radicals, they are vehemently opposed to Vermont Insoumise for being nationalistic and xenophobic against English speakers. As such, the vast majority of the party's membership comes from English speaking socialists and communists, but there are also some Canadien socialists and communists who possess an internationalist view and vote for the Gauche Unitaire.
That was an awesome write up for Vermont. I would probably vote for Vermont Insoumise.
My current Senate prediction(s):
*Percentages are the exact percentages I expect the winners to get, not their % chance of winning
* MN-Special and MS-Special are represented by Illinois and Alabama respectively
* California is D>90 since both candidates are Democrats. I expect Feinstein to win with roughly 65% of the vote.
*Percentages are the exact percentages I expect the winners to get, not their % chance of winning
* MN-Special and MS-Special are represented by Illinois and Alabama respectively
* California is D>90 since both candidates are Democrats. I expect Feinstein to win with roughly 65% of the vote.
I am going to make a doc for my elections of my novel, starting from 1840 and doing every single one of them forward until I think 2040 (or until any post 2020 point where I just get sick of it) going into detail on all the electoral maps and how the world climate was at the time with 1 or two pages on each. When I am done with them all, I will post the document with one election per day until I have them all posted as one big mega electoral map timeline that encompass nearly 200 years
Bad Company
Banned
My current Senate prediction(s):
*Percentages are the exact percentages I expect the winners to get, not their % chance of winning
* MN-Special and MS-Special are represented by Illinois and Alabama respectively
* California is D>90 since both candidates are Democrats. I expect Feinstein to win with roughly 65% of the vote.
You missed Nebraska.
Elizabeth Warren Beats Joe Biden and Hilary Clinton in the Democratic Primary and selects Corey Booker as her Running mate. The Acucess Hollywood Tape comes out days before the second Super Tuesday causing Trump’s support to slip enough that Rubio takes Florida and Cruz takes North Carolina and MO. An ugly republicans convention goes to a 3rd ballot as Trump delegates refuse to support Cruz how won a clear plurality of delegates and the popular vote. Moderates and party elders try in vain to get slip the nomination to Kasich , even offering Cruz the VP slot, when this is leaked to the media Trump’s supporters completely lose their shit and the conversation floor is consumed by a chaotic shoating match as Cruz and Trump supporters get into physical altercations outside the Convention in Cleveland. Cruz secures the nomination and selects Scott Walker as his running mate a move many party leaders think is a recipe for disaster as the governor is increasingly unpopular in his home state and his anti union, anti woman agenda does little to help republicans win over Moderate rust belt voters or educated woman. The general election is nasty with many Trump voters often repeating Warrens Talking points on the dangers Cruz poses to American Workers... the race is very Tight in the south and west as Cruz picks up support from conservative Latinos, particularly Cubans and Cuban Americans in Florida. On the other hand the notion that a Republican could win or even hope to make states like Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania competitive in 2016 is never part of the conversation. Warren wins 318 ECVs losing only Florida to Cruz by a slim 90’000 votes while picking up North Carolina thanks to increased Black turn out and lower Republican Turnout. The popular vote broke down 51.62% for Warren and 45.67% for Cruz, winning a margin of 5.95% or 7 million votes. Democrats pick up 7 Senate Seats but lose 2/(1) when the appointed replacements take office starting the Democrats off with a slim but useful 51/49 majority. John McCain’s retirement in mid 2017 leads to a special election in December 2017 in which by Ruben Gallego beats Sherif Joe Airpio by more then 19 points.
Gov Christe appoints Rep. LoBiondo to Fill Bookers Senate Seat untill a 2017 special election sends Democrat Jon Johnson to the Senate.
Gov Baker shocks both political parties by Appointing Former Governor William Weld to Warrens Seat which he serves as a Independent who more then often caucuses with the Democrats, Joe Kennedy Succsded him after winning the special election in 2017.
Marick Garland is finally confirmed to the Senate in February by a vote of 63 to 37 with Republicans Collins, Mursaski,McCain,LoBiondo,Heller,Corker,Graham,Portman,Rubio,Sasse,Lamar.
The late 2018 retirement of Anthony Kennedy ignites a brutal fight as Warren appoints Maura Healey. The nuclear option is used and She is confirmed 50/50 with Collins voting yes and Manchin voting no with Vice President Booker breaking the tie. The Superm Court stuck down the Congressional maps in North Carolina, Wisconsin, Ohio, Michigan, and Pennsylvania after ruling in a 5 to 4 desision that partisan gerrymandering is unconstitutional. The full force of the VRC is also reaffirmed in time for the 2018 mid terms in much the Democrats defy historical trends and a truly gain 18 House Seats while only losing A seat in North Dakota but picking one up in Nevada for a neutral net change.
This became way more detailed then I planed on making it but I might continue with a 2020 Republican Primary post...
So, the Dems take Arizona and Nevada and the Republicans take North Dakota leading to a 50-50 Senate?
Yes, although I think North Dakota could go either way. I'm not counting Heitkamp out yet although at the moment I expect Kramer to narrowly win.
(I know I've slacked with this, but I promise I'll finish it soon.)
1:15 A.M. E.S.T.
McManus: We now have two projections to make:
ARKANSAS - 85% reporting
Baker/Sandoval: 491,813 (51.15%)
Manchin/Klobuchar: 460,234 (47.85%)
Others: 9,601 (1.00%)
McManus: We are able to project the Natural State for Governor Baker. Once a pretty strongly Democratic state, it has not voted Democratic since 1996 and fastly trended to be one of the most GOP states in the Union. This trend has been almost completely eroded, as it is voting for Baker by a similar margin as it did for Bush in 2000.
WASHINGTON - 61% reporting
Manchin/Klobuchar: 1,036,021 (50.76%)
Baker/Sandoval: 980,909 (48.06%)
Others: 24,031 (1.18%)
McManus: Like Arkansas, Washington appears to have largely reverted to a margin like 2000. It has trended strongly Democratic in recent years, but never voted as strongly Democratic as many other strong Democratic states have. While Baker failed to flip the Evergreen State, his performance here might be a bright sign for future GOP candidates.
McManus: Baker is currently up 7, 245-238, with 55 electoral votes remaining uncalled. No clear winner is in sight, as the remaining states are very tight and calling them is too risky.
1:27 A.M. E.S.T.
McManus: Just in, we have a critical call to make:
KENTUCKY - 99% reporting
Baker/Sandoval: 955,899 (49.88%)
Manchin/Klobuchar: 941,412 (49.12%)
Others: 19,067 (1.00%)
McManus: A surprise tossup state in this election cycle, Governor Baker has won the Bluegrass State by a nail-biting .76%. Once a state that elected both Democrats and Republicans, in the 21st century it transformed into a GOP stronghold. Manchin almost picked it off the GOP column, but these results make it obvious that he came short of making it go Democratic for the first time since 1996. We can also project the two uncalled congressional district electoral votes for Baker:
ME-01 - 92% reporting
Baker/Sandoval: 206,122 (53.61%)
Manchin/Klobuchar: 174,378 (45.35%)
Others: 4,012 (1.04%)
McManus: Not a huge surprise given Baker's performance in New England as a whole, the usually reliably Democratic 1st district of Maine has flipped Republican by a margin of 8.3%.
NE-02 - 84% reporting
Baker/Sandoval: 141,771 (57.12%)
Manchin/Klobuchar: 103,932 (41.88%)
Others: 2,470 (1.00%)
McManus: Once solidly Republican but creeping towards the Democrats more recently, the 2nd district of Nebraska has swung Republican by a strong margin to produce a comfortable victory of 15.2%.
McManus: Baker's lead over Manchin has grown to a gap of 17, 255-238, but 45 electoral votes remain uncalled in the critical states of Ohio, Missouri, Wisconsin, and Oregon. For Governor Baker to win, he only needs Ohio, but for Senator Manchin to win he must sweep the table with all the remaining tossups. It's hard to make a solid prediction of how the remaining states will vote, since the highly different circumstances with this election compared to other recent elections makes it harder to compare trends between them.
1:35 A.M. E.S.T.
Gomez: Welcome back to Election Night 20XX. We have one new projections to make:
WISCONSIN - 86% reporting
Manchin/Klobuchar: 1,276,595 (49.89%)
Baker/Sandoval: 1,257,102 (49.13%)
Others: 25,297 (.98%)
Gomez: Wisconsin, the Badger State, can be projected for Senator Manchin. His narrow victory strongly resembles the state's results in 2000 and 2004, where heavily Republican Milwaukee suburbs nearly tilted the state to George W. Bush but Democratic-leaning blue collar areas kept it Democratic. This is a good sign for the Manchin campaign, as the possible routes to victory for both parties has come down to three states: Ohio, Missouri, and Oregon. Let's take a look at the map:
Miller: Well, Albert, it doesn't look like this election night will be wrapping up anytime soon. We cannot project Oregon yet, but that's mostly due to the fact that many ballots still need to be counted. The real standouts are Missouri and Ohio:
MISSOURI - 95% reporting
Baker/Sandoval: 1,320,407 (49.50%)
Manchin/Klobuchar: 1,319,591 (49.47%)
Others: 27,352 (1.02%)
OHIO - 99% reporting
Baker/Sandoval: 2,699,267 (49.51%)
Manchin/Klobuchar: 2,698,212 (49.50%)
Others: 53,991 (.99%)
Miller: As you can see, the Show Me State and the Buckeye State are still too close to call, even with the vast majority of ballots in. Baker currently has a slight lead in both, but Missouri has constantly flipped between the two and Ohio is certainly within recount territory.
1:15 A.M. E.S.T.
McManus: We now have two projections to make:
ARKANSAS - 85% reporting
Baker/Sandoval: 491,813 (51.15%)
Manchin/Klobuchar: 460,234 (47.85%)
Others: 9,601 (1.00%)
McManus: We are able to project the Natural State for Governor Baker. Once a pretty strongly Democratic state, it has not voted Democratic since 1996 and fastly trended to be one of the most GOP states in the Union. This trend has been almost completely eroded, as it is voting for Baker by a similar margin as it did for Bush in 2000.
WASHINGTON - 61% reporting
Manchin/Klobuchar: 1,036,021 (50.76%)
Baker/Sandoval: 980,909 (48.06%)
Others: 24,031 (1.18%)
McManus: Like Arkansas, Washington appears to have largely reverted to a margin like 2000. It has trended strongly Democratic in recent years, but never voted as strongly Democratic as many other strong Democratic states have. While Baker failed to flip the Evergreen State, his performance here might be a bright sign for future GOP candidates.
McManus: Baker is currently up 7, 245-238, with 55 electoral votes remaining uncalled. No clear winner is in sight, as the remaining states are very tight and calling them is too risky.
1:27 A.M. E.S.T.
McManus: Just in, we have a critical call to make:
KENTUCKY - 99% reporting
Baker/Sandoval: 955,899 (49.88%)
Manchin/Klobuchar: 941,412 (49.12%)
Others: 19,067 (1.00%)
McManus: A surprise tossup state in this election cycle, Governor Baker has won the Bluegrass State by a nail-biting .76%. Once a state that elected both Democrats and Republicans, in the 21st century it transformed into a GOP stronghold. Manchin almost picked it off the GOP column, but these results make it obvious that he came short of making it go Democratic for the first time since 1996. We can also project the two uncalled congressional district electoral votes for Baker:
ME-01 - 92% reporting
Baker/Sandoval: 206,122 (53.61%)
Manchin/Klobuchar: 174,378 (45.35%)
Others: 4,012 (1.04%)
McManus: Not a huge surprise given Baker's performance in New England as a whole, the usually reliably Democratic 1st district of Maine has flipped Republican by a margin of 8.3%.
NE-02 - 84% reporting
Baker/Sandoval: 141,771 (57.12%)
Manchin/Klobuchar: 103,932 (41.88%)
Others: 2,470 (1.00%)
McManus: Once solidly Republican but creeping towards the Democrats more recently, the 2nd district of Nebraska has swung Republican by a strong margin to produce a comfortable victory of 15.2%.
McManus: Baker's lead over Manchin has grown to a gap of 17, 255-238, but 45 electoral votes remain uncalled in the critical states of Ohio, Missouri, Wisconsin, and Oregon. For Governor Baker to win, he only needs Ohio, but for Senator Manchin to win he must sweep the table with all the remaining tossups. It's hard to make a solid prediction of how the remaining states will vote, since the highly different circumstances with this election compared to other recent elections makes it harder to compare trends between them.
1:35 A.M. E.S.T.
Gomez: Welcome back to Election Night 20XX. We have one new projections to make:
WISCONSIN - 86% reporting
Manchin/Klobuchar: 1,276,595 (49.89%)
Baker/Sandoval: 1,257,102 (49.13%)
Others: 25,297 (.98%)
Gomez: Wisconsin, the Badger State, can be projected for Senator Manchin. His narrow victory strongly resembles the state's results in 2000 and 2004, where heavily Republican Milwaukee suburbs nearly tilted the state to George W. Bush but Democratic-leaning blue collar areas kept it Democratic. This is a good sign for the Manchin campaign, as the possible routes to victory for both parties has come down to three states: Ohio, Missouri, and Oregon. Let's take a look at the map:
Miller: Well, Albert, it doesn't look like this election night will be wrapping up anytime soon. We cannot project Oregon yet, but that's mostly due to the fact that many ballots still need to be counted. The real standouts are Missouri and Ohio:
MISSOURI - 95% reporting
Baker/Sandoval: 1,320,407 (49.50%)
Manchin/Klobuchar: 1,319,591 (49.47%)
Others: 27,352 (1.02%)
OHIO - 99% reporting
Baker/Sandoval: 2,699,267 (49.51%)
Manchin/Klobuchar: 2,698,212 (49.50%)
Others: 53,991 (.99%)
Miller: As you can see, the Show Me State and the Buckeye State are still too close to call, even with the vast majority of ballots in. Baker currently has a slight lead in both, but Missouri has constantly flipped between the two and Ohio is certainly within recount territory.
Saskatchewan 2020 provincial election prediction, based roughly on a ~14% swing similar to the Regina-Northeast byelection last week. Couple seats are judgment calls based on past voting history, incumbency, etc.
NDP under Ryan Meili make significant gains, pulling out of a decade-long slump and back to their historic norms in terms of seats, but are still largely unable to break the Scott Moe-led Sask Party's hold on rural Saskatchewan. The Sask Party wins it's fourth consecutive majority government, but suffers a loss of 13 seats including most of its urban MLAs.
NDP under Ryan Meili make significant gains, pulling out of a decade-long slump and back to their historic norms in terms of seats, but are still largely unable to break the Scott Moe-led Sask Party's hold on rural Saskatchewan. The Sask Party wins it's fourth consecutive majority government, but suffers a loss of 13 seats including most of its urban MLAs.
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