I doubt that would save the Qing. It would only prolong the monarchy for sometime, but the Xinhai revolution was coming.
TL-191: Far Afield - The Confederate and Yankee Presence in China, 1862-1944
- Thread starter Alterwright
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I doubt that would save the Qing. It would only prolong the monarchy for sometime, but the Xinhai revolution was coming.
I remember that, but the China of TL-191 gets bad to worst in it. (Such as the fact they so poor, they not affected by the Great Depression and a far more powerful Japan.)
I don't see a Communist China occurring in this timeline... at least not during the Second Great War.
China would basically be the same in TL-191, but deal with a more hyper-aggressive Japan.
I do think, however, that the Pacific theater would mostly be limited to a China vs. Japan battlefield on land and sea, a Britain vs. Japan in what was Malaysia in the Real-World, and a brief Japan vs. Russia during the last few months of the war (sort of like a reverse-Soviet invasion of Japan in OTL).
China would basically be the same in TL-191, but deal with a more hyper-aggressive Japan.
I do think, however, that the Pacific theater would mostly be limited to a China vs. Japan battlefield on land and sea, a Britain vs. Japan in what was Malaysia in the Real-World, and a brief Japan vs. Russia during the last few months of the war (sort of like a reverse-Soviet invasion of Japan in OTL).
Hey, really appreciate you contributing to the discussion! Really great points! Gonna be devil's advocate here just to stimulate more discussion though!
Hm. I'm mostly looking at this from a time period between 1881-1914 and from what I've read and seen of Confederacy during this time they're riding pretty and understandably proud of themselves for beating their larger Northern neighbor twice. Of course South's first concern is going to be the United States and of course the Confederacy is going to try and maintain the hell out of its alliances with all the European powers than can help it, especially Britain and France. Yes, the Confederacy would most definitely concentrate a majority of its overseas efforts in developing trade and diplomatic relations with Central America and the Caribbean. Its their backyard and British and the United States have interests there as well.
But, the United States's presence in the Pacific is severely weakened in this small time period, something that I do believe the Confederates would at least try (key word try) to exploit to their own advantage. No, I don't imagine their economic and military presence in China would be all that significant. It would be minuscule at best, but there were other other European nations in China at this time who had trade concessions and even tiny detachments of troops to protect foreign business interests in China, given the Qing Dynasty's inability to subdue bandits and pirates. Austria-Hungary and Italy come to mind, and their participation in the Boxer Rebellion was minimal at best, all trying to play catch up with the rest of the major powers to try and get at the trade coming out of China. The Kingdom of Italy, for example, as a country, is not that much older than the Confederacy in TL-191. Economically poor and militarily inexperienced as a united country, it nonetheless attempted to emulate the European powers in a scramble for African territory to try and establish markets to gain resources the country needed. At first they attempted to acquire things by negotiation, setting up legations here and there, other times it was by force with vary degrees of success. In the end these ventures proved too costly for Italy and yet they were stuck with what they had, all in an attempt to boost national pride, prestige, and gain resources.
So then what about the Confederacy? Yeah, you can argue that all I've said are good examples that the Confederacy wouldn't try to extend out into China. But what I'm arguing for is that the Confederacy would at least try something. Anything really. The port of Guayamas in Sonora was arguably small at this time, somewhere in the ballpark of 10,000 residents by 1890 in our timeline with a few customs houses set up for trade and was used as a small stopping point for ships in the Pacific. Small yes, but better than nothing and I think the Confederacy would at least try to build up the city to some extent to accommodate trade coming in from the Pacific to try and get at the Chinese markets there. Sure there's no canal, but at least the Confederates now have a friendly port of their of their on the Pacific and land in the form of Sonora and Chihuahua to develop. Railroads can be linked to the port with lines going through the newly acquired territories all the way to Texas and back, moving goods from the Pacific from Guayamas to the rest of the Confederacy. A tiny merchant fleet with a few entrepreneurial Confederates may still try to break into the China market. Risky as it is and costly as it might be, businessmen will try things if it means they can make a profit and at least the ones set up in Guayamas don't have to round South America. They can even benefit from trade with the British in China going to British ports in Hawaii and Shanghai and Tianjin. The British would likely be far more receptive to Confederate trade ships, missionaries, and businessmen than their United States counterparts.
In fact, perhaps the British even pushed out the United States from its own trade ports in China during the Second Mexican War. Although it would be more likely that the British would claim these now vacant ports and concessions themselves... perhaps it can give some to the Confederates as well. Give some of the concessions and legations the US may have had in China to the Confederates. Tiny as they were, it still would be a mark of pride and prestige for the Confederates to counted as a power to be respected. if the Confederates have no qualms about exerting a bit of influence in the Caribbean, I doubt they'd balk at the idea to have a few concessions in China to benefit from the little trade that may come in. Would certainly rub that in the face of the United States.
Again, I'm not saying the Confederates would have an overwhelming presence in China, nothing like what the British, Japanese, or Russians were doing. And yes of course they would concentrate more on direct trade with Europe, Central America, and Caribbean. I'm just saying that they would at least try something, to try and set up businesses in China, to send diplomatic and military missions out, and that they are actually in a much better position to gain something, even if it is small, out of it compared to the United States, with powerful allies willing to back it up. The United States threatening war with the Confederacy to build a canal is one thing, but to threaten the Confederacy over small concessions in China? That's another story. Its a long long way to China, sure, but its a long long way to China for every major power at this time too, some more than others. The late 19th Century was a surprisingly globalized time for the world some ways. I'd rather see the Confederates stumbling and blundering to get at the China market, and then deciding to not get involved in it after a while than not attempt anything at all.
Would it really upset the British Empire that much to allow a firm non-European ally at least a few trade concessions and a legation in China to set up an official presence? With the end of the Second Opium War that arguably forced open China even more to the West through even more unequal treaties that many of the great European powers wanted to get in on? With all the benefits leaning heavily in the foreigners' favor the Confederates would at least try to ask for permission from the British and Qing to set up shop in a few port cities if they could.
True the Confederacy was primarily an agrarian based economy, but that economy was heavily reliant on the use of slave labor to harvest its cash crops. Slavery was abolished in the Confederacy after the Second Mexican War as part of an agreement with the British and French, a critical factor in the Confederacy gaining the support it did in its second war with the United States. President Longstreet must have been painfully aware of this and its potential effect on the Confederate economy post war - if the South didn't agree to get rid of slavery the British and French would not help them in their war. While don't believe the South would switch to a different economy over night, I'd wager that many businessmen and slave holders in the South took exception to the abolition of slavery as a condition for foreign assistance. Post-war and I'd imagine some Confederate men and women would try to think of some other way to stimulate business and diversify the Confederate economy. Again, trying something. Perhaps for some bold Confederates they see this as an opportunity.
And yes, I agree that Confederate trade would primarily focus on Europe and the Caribbean, I'm not disputing or denying that fact. You even said it yourself - the CSA might try to acquire raw materials from sources other than those found in the United States. I'd argue that Asia is more than just a somewhat-plasuible source though - its a lucrative trade even in the 19th Century. Europe certainly has things that the Confederates need and would focus on that, but China had resources and markets that even the British, French, and other powers coveted. Australia might also be a good place for trade (again still overseas and outside the Confederacy in the Pacific) but in our timeline Australia at least was going through a rough patch economically speaking around the 1890s, with a land and investment boom that was followed by a crash in the 1890s that sent investors looking elsewhere. You could definitely argue that China wasn't much better stability wise, but hey, that business for you. You got to takes risks reap the profit if you can while the going is good.
Again, really appreciate the discussion! Please send feedback if you can, really interested on the topic and love the thoughts put into it all!
Yeah, that's actually a big factor he isn't it! A 20th Century China without a significant communist presence in the form of Mao and the Chinese Communist Party. For a rather big chunk of its modern history too! Right into the Second Great War. That certainly changes things up a bit, including China dealing with a much more aggressive, much less cautious Japan when it comes to carving territory for its empire.
We'd be looking at a China still divided among warlords, with Chiang-Kai-Shek or some other nationalist leader struggling to unite the warlords under one banner, with the Japanese army pushing farther inland. Now, I'm under no impression that taking China would be a cake-walk for the Japanese, even if they have more advantages. As disorganized and ill-motivated as a good portion of the KMT army was, with wildly different degrees in quality among its soldiers and officers, and an abysmal logistics and supply situation, the Chinese armies were still a force to be reckon with for the Japanese and the Chinese landscape was vast and harsh in its own ways. The Japanese would seriously need to change up its strategy for China and address a number of its own shortcomings.
However things are different for them in TL-191, such as having the Philippines and (I think) even possessing the former Dutch East Indies. Certainly changes things up for them, but covering that much land for the Japanese is going to be hard, even more so if they're going to take on the Tsarist Russians, weakened as they might be from the Second Great War. But, then again, maybe I thinking too much in terms of our timeline here. I'm just saying that the Japanese seriously need to address their logistics and supply problems here to have a lasting foothold in China by the time of the Second Great War.
Yeah maybe! But the Qing were done for by the 20th Century. There are just too many factors at play that make the Qing's demise a matter of when instead of if. There were social, economic, political, and even ethnic problems in China too great for the Qing to handle. The Qing, which were an ethnically Manchu based dynasty, was already viewed as much as foreign blight by the more numerous Han Chinese population. As much as a lot of people in China didn't like the foreigners (and despite what a big chunk of the Boxers said in support of the Qing) and ruling Manchu dynasty of the Qing were not well liked either.
Maybe a year more? Two tops? Either way the Qing are going to fall, at least in my opinion.
Huh, that's a bit tricky honestly. The KMT in our timeline sought support from the US at a specific time there long war with the Japanese. Before that it was the Germans and the Soviets, again at different times in the war against the Japanese over a period of several long years.
The Warlords Era probably occurs the same way it does in our timeline. I can still see the rise of the KMT and Chiang taking place, but a major factor here is the potential absence of Mao and a Chinese Communist Party. The KMT arguably took over a good portion of China by the end of the 1920s to proclaim the Republic of China, but there were still other warlords lurking around that were not under the KMT's control. I imagine TL-191's version of the KMT still has to contend with these warlords, but without a Communist faction to draw his attention away from the threat of the Japanese... maybe things play out differently.
From the sound of it things could not have been better though. Japan might be more of a priority for the KMT without the Communists, but Chiang had a notoriously tough time just trying to organize his army to fight the Japanese effectively. It was a struggle just to get supplies to the soldiers and although the Chinese armies were big on paper and in real life, their training and will to fight was a different story. Even with foreign assistance the Chinese found it hard to fight the Japanese. They simply didn't have the proper equipment or industrial base to fight them effectively.
In TL-191, since Russia is still (miraculously) under Tsarist rule, and with the Russians technically allies of the Japanese for most of the Second Great War, it would be difficult to ask the Russians for help. The US would be tied down fighting the Confederates and barely keeping the Japanese fleet in the Pacific in check, so again it would be difficult to see them giving aid. The British are a no go as well.
The only other power I can see supporting them would be the Germans. How they would do this beyond me, but its certainly worth discussion. Perhaps someone else sees how they can do that.
Pretty much. The Qing has their chances to reform and survive, but it is long since past. The Qing adopted Chinese customs, but was always foreign and stood out from the rest of the Han.
To sum it up another way, there would be a strong Communist movement in China (especially after the failure of the Communists in Russia), but I doubt that it would succeed if there no Mao make it more 'Chinese' and for the peasants. You might see more American influence and a more Americanized form of socialism adopted in China instead. But the KMT fighting among itself and the Japanese would prove to be disastrous, especially if the KMT has a lot of left-wing factions. (Which there was in OTL, and there be even greater in TTL.)
In fact you could see a lot more pro-Japanese Chinese warlords vying for power. (Such as Zhang Zuolin and the Fengtian before Japan made the horrible screw up of killing him.)
I think Japan is pretty set. The main reasons why in OLT they invaded south and attacked America was because they needed the Dutch East Indies oil reserves to make up for the USA embargos against Japan. This is not the case. They took the Philippines and Guam from Spain, they bully the Dutch into getting up the East Indies after the Great War, as well as Indochina without a fight. (Which I see Australia and New Zealand screaming bloody murder at London over.) I doubt there be any embargos against Japan as Featherston comes to power in the South, and the Union got bigger fish to fry.
It is true they need to logistics and supply problems, but they have rolled sixes for almost the whole of of Southern Victory.
Shit, yeah, like, they've been rolling pretty well haven't they!
Yeah, that's just me. Even with all this newly acquired territory taken through political and military means the Japanese still have to address some critical problems with their logistics and production of arms I feel. Their economy and industrial base isn't mentioned in TL-191, but I imagine that it is slightly better than what the Japanese were experiencing in our timeline, especially when it comes to oil. They still need ships to transport all those raw materials and fuel to Japan though and for that the Japanese would need a much larger fleet of maritime cargo ships and tankers for that. I feel that would be the key for Japan in this timeline to truly win against its opponents - better logistics and management of resources.
Another follow up to this for me...
I still foresee some of the battles that took place in our timeline happening. Like the battles of Shanghai, Nanking, Wuhan, probably the Defense of the Great Wall, the Battles of Changsha, Taierzhuang. Without the communists for Chiang to worry about he can concentrate on efforts to throw back the Japanese. However in this case the Japanese are more aggressive and heavily armed I feel. The battles here could take on a more ferocious angle to them.
We'd probably see more aggressive use of chemical or biological weapons on the Chinese as well. I forget, but I don't believe there is a League of Nations in this timeline and it doesn't seem like any laws or rules are being adhered to in terms of their use. Might see them being used more to devastating effect.
There be a strong Communist movement, but I doubt there be successful. If no major Communists, then Chiang (The peanut head that he was.) would be fighting the American style left-wing factions of the KMT just as much as he fought against Mao. (Such as Wang Jing Wei, and more would be Reds joining the left-wing Nationalists.) So we can see a far worst Ninghan Seperation with the KMT falling into even greater civil war against itself and more Pro-Japanese Warlords.
Like I said, it took kidnapping him to force the man to focus on fighting the Japanese. If there no Zhang Xueliang. (Staying Pro-Japanese as was his father before his assassination.) Then the KMT is in deep trouble.
Nope. There was no League after the Great War. There may be some kind of League/United Nations after the Second Great War...
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You certainly do a very excellent job and raise some thought-provoking points.
I appreciate that, but I'm no expert on any of this really! Please, if there's anything more you'd like to say or bring up, please feel free to do so!
Again, I'm not saying the Confederates would have been all that successful in China. In the first book, Longstreet was pretty keen on extending the Confederacy to the Pacific just like the United States, with all the potential benefits that gives. To me that says he was pretty keen on something - making the Confederates a pacific power and ultimately extending their reach. Its ambitious for a country like the Confederacy, but even after the acquisition and subsequent war over the purchase of Sonora and Chihuahua, it is revealed that despite their efforts the Confederate Navy's power in the Pacific never amounted to much. To me, that's enough vagueness warrant a small presence of any kind and this is not taking into account Confederate commercial shipping.
I'm so keen on this point because there are examples in our timeline that absolutely fit the idea of a "small naval presence". In fact, in our timeline, you need look no farther than the German East Asia Squadron. At the outbreak of WWI, this squadron totaled only 6 ships. Six ships! Six cruisers against the combined might of the Japanese and British and those ships were expected to protect Germany's interests in China and the Pacific, with most of the fleet penned in home waters.
Admiral von Spee was painfully aware of his squadrons small size and made it a point to make a dash across the Pacific for the safety of friendly or neutral ports, in an attempt to get coal for his ships. They ultimately did not accomplish much, but their actions are well documented and quite interesting to read about, especially the cruiser Emden, who took to commerce raiding in the Indian ocean by itself and has a very extraordinary tale. The East Asia Squadron was engaged in a few battles across the Pacific, sink a few before ultimately being destroyed piece meal in several battles, from the Indian Ocean to as far as the Falklands. Again their presence never amounted to much either, but damn if it interesting to read about!
In my mind in TL-191, any Confederate naval presence would still have the back up of allies like the Japanese and the British in the Pacific, whereas the Germans would have had the United States. At best if the Confederates did have a naval detachment in the Pacific meant to protect their interests in China it would no doubt be small - probably comparable to the East Asia German Squadron if the Confederates were sailing with cruisers. 4-6 proper cruisers at best if the Confederates even have them, with maybe some converted freighters meant for commerce raiding or even a handful of subs. That's still not much compared to the British and Japanese. The Americans and Germans would be their main foes in the Pacific and, honestly, we may be seeing a more lively naval war in TL-191 in the Pacific.
The Confederates would still rely on a strategy of relying on the British or sticking to the biggest ally like glue, to keep their ships from keeping destroyed in one action. That or perhaps they'd disperse to do a bit of commerce raiding on American and German ships.
Granted it took a kidnapping by Zhang to make Chiang pay attention to the Japanese knocking on China's doorstep. So then you think he'd still be distracted with left wing groups in this time line then?
Yes. As said, he was a 'Peanut Head'. More so he rejected Western ideas (Such as capitalism), and Sun Yat-sen's ideas in favor of traditional Chinese culture and Confucian moral values. He was obsessed with destroying the Communists and the Left-Wing, and Western ideas that threatened him. He was dealing with constant political and military upheavals from his leadership thanks to his attacks on rivals, Communists, and Capitalists all over in the 20s and 30s. (Let alone the mass death and his responsibility for millions of deaths in fighting the Japanese, and the Communists. And almost bankrupting them in the Central Plains War of 1930. That was all him.)
Let him do his thing, and the KMT would be hammer by the Japanese, and Pro-Japanese Warlords, as well as far worst internal matters within the Nationalists.
@Joshua Ben Ari.
What would be interesting in instead of invading of Manchuria outright, Japan has Zhang Zuolin be the one to restore the Qing and Puyi to the throne and let Japan in to help 'further build up the region.' Japan avoids the backlash of the OTL invasion of Manchuria, Zhang Zuolin gets the Qing to come back, and he and his son would be beating the Nationalists asses into next week while building up the region as he was doing before and in OTL of Manchukuo.
I can even see a far greater Wang Jingwei regime as Chiang would be (As he was.) focus on trying to kill all the Communists, Socialists, and Capitalists he could find, and they have no choice, but to side with Japan.
What would be interesting in instead of invading of Manchuria outright, Japan has Zhang Zuolin be the one to restore the Qing and Puyi to the throne and let Japan in to help 'further build up the region.' Japan avoids the backlash of the OTL invasion of Manchuria, Zhang Zuolin gets the Qing to come back, and he and his son would be beating the Nationalists asses into next week while building up the region as he was doing before and in OTL of Manchukuo.
I can even see a far greater Wang Jingwei regime as Chiang would be (As he was.) focus on trying to kill all the Communists, Socialists, and Capitalists he could find, and they have no choice, but to side with Japan.
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Well, seems to me that one of the main reasons the British backed the Confederacy in the 191 timeline, was to keep America weak, and to prevent it from becoming a potential rival to the British Empire at some point in the future. If the British were to allow the CS to have a concession in Shanghai, along side the other great powers operating in China, then it seems that the British goal of keeping America off the world stage had at least partially failed, and instead of having to compete with rising US power in East Asia, the British might find themselves competing with a rising CS, and what good is that from the point of view of the British Empire?
My guess is that if the CS started to express serious interests in overseas adventurism, then the British would probably find a way to stir up trouble in North America just enough to keep both the US and the CS slightly off balance.
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Still would be fun to imagine Confederates fighting side by side with United States forces during the Boxer Rebellion. Even countries like Austria-Hungary and Italy got involved in some of the action. I just can't resist the mental image of such a thing! it could potentially be the rarest of occurrences when two bitter enemies actually fight on the same side.