As the Sun Rise, A Daughter Falls- a Tudor Timeline

A Most Unfortunate Event
“In late March 1502, the giddy aura of newly wedded bliss halted. Both the Prince and Princess of Wales had taken ill, likely with the sweating sickness that would plague England throughout the 16th century. Around the castle servants fretted, charged with saving the heir to the throne and his long-awaited wife. Despite their best efforts only one would survive, left to face their recovery alone”

-Elenora Larson, The Royal Testing Ground: A History of Ludlow Castle and Its Occupants (1995)​




“...It is with the heaviest heart and the deepest regret that I inform your Most Christian Majesties of this great tragedy. While in Wales our realm’s most beloved child, the Infanta Catalina, was called from her earthly existence to serve our Father in Heaven...”
- 1502 letter from Pedro de Ayala, Spanish ambassador to England and Scotland, to Ferdinand and Isabella​


Hello everyone and welcome to my first timeline, where we explore the question of what would have happened if, instead of Arthur Tudor, it was Catherine of Aragon who died in 1502. I'm looking forward to hearing your feedback to help improve this timeline and fill in any gaps I might have. I posted a thread a couple of days ago to sound out some early ideas, so if you have any opinions on where this timeline should go you can comment either here or there.
 
1502: The Fallout
"Many have judged Henry VII as coldhearted after reviewing his response to Catherine of Aragon's death. These assessments are unfair. The King and his family had grown fond of Catherine, long viewing her as the symbol of Tudor legitimacy and a virtuous future matriarch of the dynasty. However, as was often the case, pragmatism ruled the day for the unlikely King. Better to lose a daughter in law, who could be replaced, than a son and heir".
- Shelly Austin, A Most Unlikely King: Henry VII and the Quest for Survival (2001)
"The news from Wales had hit Isabel hard. Once again, her child had died seemingly in the prime of their life, leaving the Catholic Monarchs distraught and grieving. The Queen of Castile, whose health was already in decline after the deaths of her beloved Juan and Isabel, saw her ailments exacerbated after hearing of Catalina's death. By the end of 1502, Isabel I, Queen of Castile and Aragon, had died with her final words reportedly being 'My children, I am coming'".
-Gabriel Mata, Triumph and Tragedy: The Story of Isabel I (1984).
"Upon hearing the news of her mother's death, Juana couldn't help but feel torn. On one hand, this was her mother, the legendary Queen who she had worshiped as a child and who she begged for attention. But with her death, Juana finally had control. Castile and the power of its crown were her's and her's alone. Not Philip's, Mama's, or Papa's, but her's. She would show them wrong and prove that it was she, the forgotten middle child they doubted in childhood, who would surpass her parents as the greatest monarch Europe would ever see"
-Ivan San Nicolas, And to Castile, I Rise: A Juana of Castile novel (2007).
" As 1502 came to a close, the English court was bustling with activity. In addition to the planned celebrations in anticipation of Princess Margaret's marriage to the King of Scots, England's diplomatic courtiers were working around the clock with the King, Queen, and the King's mother on a matter of utmost importance. The mission: to find a new Princess of Wales"
-Dorothy Paget, The Most Important of Tasks: The Tudors and the Royal Marriage Market (1976).
 
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I’m excited to see where this goes! Putting my vote in for Marguerite d'Angoulême as the new princess of wales
 
Marriages and Children
“The quest for a new Princess of Wales proved difficult from the outset. The most prestigious houses in Europe: Austria, Spain, and France; had no candidates the right age to offer in marriage. The future Queen of England would come from either the extended Valois or Habsburg family. The French offered the King’s niece, Germaine of Foix, then aged 15, while the Emperor would counter with a niece of his own, Sidonie of Bavaria.”
-Dorothy Paget, The Most Important of Tasks: The Tudors and the Royal Marriage Market (1976)

“In the end, it would be Sidonie, the 15-year-old Bavarian princess, who would be selected as the new Princess of Wales. The choice would have less to do with the girl’s own virtues then her connections. Not only was she the cousin of the new King-Consort of Castile but, via her mother Kunigunde of Austria, she was a great-great-great-granddaughter of John of Gaunt, Duke of Lancaster. This second connection was key as, while the Tudor’s claimed to be the union of York and Lancaster, Henry VII’s Lancastrian roots were through the Beaufort line, which was known for its questionable legitimacy. By the end of 1503, Sidonie and a small retinue of ladies were making their way to London while her younger sister, Sybille, was being prepared to take elder sister’s place as the future Electress Palatine”.
-Winnifred Summers, Creating Camelot: The Roots of Arthurian England (1987)

“Juana and Philip were already in Castile at the time of her mother’s death, having arrived to attend the Cortes give fealty to the Princess of Asturias. While Philip had initially planned to return to Burgundy, his mother-in-law’s declining health and subsequent death caused the Archduke to stay with his pregnant wife. What happened next would leave lasting emotional scars and tear the Tratsmara family apart”
-Xavier Gebara, Juana, Philip, Ferdinand and the Struggle for Spain (2013)

“After being rejected by the Prince of Wales, Germaine of Foix quickly found a landing spot in 1503. Her suitor was Ferdinand II of Aragon, the recent widower of Isabel I of Castile. His hope was that his new marriage would produce a son to inherit Aragon instead of his daughter Juana and despised son-in-law Philip. However, the marriage would only produce three surviving daughters: Leonor (1507), Beatriz (1509), and Blanca (1511); leaving Juana as the legal heiress to the throne”
-Laurita Arce, Mi Papa: The Tumultuous Fatherhood of Ferdinand II (1983)

“News of the King of Aragon’s search for a bride hit Castile like a cannonball. Queen Juana saw her father’s potential remarriage as a betrayal, not only of her rights as heiress to Aragon but her mother’s memory, claiming “Papa wishes for la mujer frances (the French woman) to arrive behind mama’s coffin”. The strain between father and daughter was apparent when, that March, Juana gave birth to a second son named Maximilian “after our blessed father the Emperor ” in a snub to her father and attempt to get him to reconsider his marital plans. It didn’t work, and Juana would hold a grudge the rest of her life, allegedly forbidding her children and grandchildren from calling their children Ferdinand”.
-Xavier Gebara, Juana, Philip, Ferdinand and the Struggle for Spain (2013)

“The French court rose up with delight in 1503 as the Queen, Anne of Brittany, was delivered of a son called Charles after his grandfather. The proud father hosted a great feast in honor of the long-awaited event, with commenters noting the only words of disappointment came from the ambitious Louise of Savoy, whose son Francis had been heir until the birth of the Dauphin. In 1505, after giving birth of a second son called Louis for his father, Queen Anne begged her husband to halt her conjugal duties, claiming “she could not survive losing another babe” and “wished to devote herself to the health and education of our darling children”. While these were real concerns, the Queen of France had a more selfish reason to halt her childbearing days. Anne of Brittany was determined: she would preserve her health, outlive her husband, and secure an independent Brittany”
-Morgan Bourreau, “Death Before Dishonor”: Queen Anne and the Fight for an Independent Brittany (1958)​


“While her husband and mother-in-law were searching for a future Princess of Wales, Elizabeth of York had another mission in mind. She would find a wife for her beloved second son Henry, Duke of York. The English Queen turned to the family of Ferdinand II of Aragon, determined the Tudors would end up on the right side of the Iberian power struggle. Though Ferdinand had no daughters to offer, his girls by Isabel were already married and those by Germaine weren't born yet, he did have his distant cousins in Naples. With that came the engagement of the Duke of York and Giulia of Naples, and the beginning of one of England’s most famous love triangles”
-Jeannine Levitt, His Grandfather’s Son: The Shocking Life of the Scandalous Duke of York (2001)​
 
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Great start and the snippets about Henry are really promising
He wouldn't be Henry if he had a blissful marriage.

Needless to say, one of Arthurian England’s lasting additions to the cultural zeitgeist is something called “the York trope” which I hope to define in a later chapter. Simply put, Henry’s still a prince and without the burden of kingship he (surprisingly) has even more time to literally screw around
 
Needless to say, one of Arthurian England’s lasting additions to the cultural zeitgeist is something called “the York trope” which I hope to define in a later chapter. Simply put, Henry’s still a prince and without the burden of kingship he (surprisingly) has even more time to literally screw around

Ironically, though, he might be a happier fellow for it. Odd as that sounds to say it...
 
The Neapolitan Affair
“Harry York (Jed Rose) and his fiancee Julie (Edie Scrivener) are a happy couple living in New Winchester. Everything changes when Julie’s childhood friend Marianne (Anissa Disney) comes to stay with the couple ahead of their wedding and has unmistakable chemistry with the secretly dissatisfied groom. Passions rise and tensions flare as the new arrival causes the couple to question everything they knew and believed about their partner, their relationship, and themselves".
- Plot description from the 1995 comedic romance AVP (audiovisual play) Three’s A Crowd based on the love triangle between The Duke of York, Giulia of Naples, and Marianna Carafa

“When Giulia of Naples received a portrait of her betrothed the young princess was awestruck, reportedly calling Prince Henry “the most handsome man in the Christendom”. Problems arose when the Neapolitan court commissioned a portrait of the young bride to be sent back to England. The bride to be, fearing the Duke of York would find her too plain and unappealing, insisted her closest confidante and lady-in-waiting Marianna Carafa, a scission of a powerful Italian family, sit for the painting instead. It would end up being the most important decision of the Princess’ life”.
-Agostino Serafin, The Tragic Friendship of Giulia of Naples and Marianna Carafa (1996)

“Marianna Carafa could best be described as bewitching. With long, golden hair and alluring dark brown eyes, it was rumored she could trap the souls of men with just a single look. This power was one Carafa was pleased to take advantage of, as she lived life with such gusto that even her many detractors admitted she certainly knew how to have a good time, even if some shirked her company. This proved a marked contrast to the short and mousy Giulia of Naples, who was once scathingly described as ‘fifty shades of dull: dull brown hair, dull grey eyes, dull skin, dull personality, etc...’ Together, however, they had made a cheerful duo in Naples with great devotion to each other, a statement that seems ridiculous with our benefit of hindsight”
-Luciana Pellegrino, Marianna Carafa: The Neapolitan Mare (1977)​

“The basic summary of the York trope is simple: two women, who were previously good friends, fight over a man as the two rivals keep escalating their attacks in hopes of achieving victory. The key to this plotline is in execution. A visionary can go for broad comedy, as seen in May the Best Friend Win, where Juliet causes the beautiful Marian to get a tragic haircut and Marian forces her buttoned-up former friend to spend the whole day with painted handprints on her blouse (and yes, those handprints are exactly where you’re imagining), or agonizing drama epitomized in the terror classic Nightmare at Hampton Court in which Mary Anne and Harold are haunted by the killer, straight-jacket wearing ghost of Mary Anne’s former friend, and Harold’s ex-girlfriend, Julissa, only to find out Mary Anne and Harald’s affair was what lead Julissa to a psychotic breakdown and later suicide.
-Gaspare Couret, The York Trope: The Origins and History of San Ysabel’s Most Famous Plotline (2002)​

“Court spectators were gobstruck by the general insanity which encapsulated the Neapolitan Affair. As such, it’s hard for modern-day historians to piece apart fact from rumor. Did the Duke of York, so taken by the portrait he was initially sent, “accidentally” wed Marianna Carafa in secret instead of Giulia as Carafa would later claim or was Carafa merely ambitiously angling herself as “the true Duchess of York”? Were the two women truly ordering botched murder attempts on each other, or were both women just extremely lucky in near-death situations? Giulia of Naples long claimed to constantly wake up “short of breath, gasping for the little air available,” but her claims could point to anything from attempted smotherings, anxiety attacks (perhaps from all the supposed attempts on her life), sleep apnea, or the histrionics of a woman wanting sympathy from her philandering husband. Similar claims can be made with Marianna Carafa, by then Baroness Byron, and her fervent belief that her frequent miscarriages were the result of Giulia’s witchcraft. In the end, these were two women fighting to the death for the affection and attention of a man who was ultimately cheating both on them and with them without a care in the world”.
-Agostino Serafin, The Tragic Friendship of Giulia of Naples and Marianna Carafa (1996)​

“My early years were absolutely miserable, with us children rarely seeing mama or papa except at Court. Mama, it seemed, loathed being away from papa, fearing he’d run away if she left him for even a moment as though papa were a skittish horse. Even worse was that woman, the Neapolitan Mare (a nickname for Marianna Carafa), who, when Papa was around, would act with the most insincere kindness towards us. I remember declaring to my most beloved governess that I’d rather see the ghost of the Usurper (Richard III) in the Tower then spend one more minute with the most insufferable “lady” in the land”
-Excerpt from The Letters and Writings of Lady Elizabeth Tudor c. 1581, (published 1885)​
“Perhaps it’s fitting that the cultural zeitgeist has taken to calling friends turned romantic rivals Giulias and Mariannas. Devoted fans of classic AVP players still debate the 1940s love triangle termed “the true York plot.” in which the glamorous Amaia Leclair infamously slept with (and bore the love child of) Carl Giehl, the San Ysabel creator married to girl-next-door Adele Horak. Leclair, who was dubbed “the New Carafa” after the scandal, leaned into the charge, reportedly filling her home with 18th and 19th-century paintings of the Duke of York and the Neapolitan Mare”
-Gaspare Couret, The York Trope: The Origins and History of San Ysabel’s Most Famous Plotline (2002)​

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“A 19th-century painting of the Duke of York and Marianna Carafa hunting owned by the late famed player Amaia Leclair. While it is not a wonderful likeness of either party, with the reference for York seems to be portraits painted after the Neapolitan affair had ended and Carafa resembling the beauty ideals of the painter more than the actual woman, it does show the remarkable longevity of the scandalous romance in the popular imagination”
-Excerpt from the official program of The Royal London Museum of Art’s 2016 exhibition, “Love in the Arthurian Court” regarding Lenora Peck’s The Duke of York & Baroness Byron on the Hunt

“Ironically, the activities which lead to such a fierce rivalry between Giulia of Naples and Marianna Carafa would prove the former’s undoing. Although she had already easily delivered three surviving children: Elizabeth (1509), Henry (1512), and Julia (1514); it was the Duchess of York’s final birth that would end in tragedy. In 1518, after being delivered of an ultimately short-lived daughter called Margaret, Giulia of Naples succumbed to the perpetual fever. Rumors have persisted to this day that the real killer was poison, sneaked in by a household member bribed by Marianna Carafa or her Italian family, but no evidence to substantiate this claim has ever been found.”
-Luciana Pellegrino, Marianna Carafa: The Neapolitan Mare (1977)​

“Henry’s grief was short lived. While Giulia was his wife and the mother of his three children, ultimately she had done her job. Her tomb, best remembered for its statue of the Duchess holding a baby believed to be Henry of York, emphasized that her worth in the York household was as a mother. Everything else was expendable.”
-Jeannine Levitt, His Grandfather’s Son: The Shocking Life of the Scandalous Duke of York (2001)​


“After Giulia’s death finding a new Duchess of York among the royal houses of Europe was next to impossible. While the Duke was still an attractive option on paper due to his good looks and close proximity to the throne, royal fathers throughout Europe refused to hand over their daughters due to the behavior “of certain disreputable members of the Duke of York’s acquaintance,” a thinly veiled reference to Carafa. Not only was their nervous chatter about the possibility of foul play regarding the former Duchess of York’s death, but many dynastic patriarchs viewed Henry’s inability to handle squabbling between his wife and a lady-in-waiting as a stain on his virtue. Even after the Duke of York made every attempt to publically ditch Carafa, foreign rulers were still reluctant to surrender their daughters. And with that, the story was written: the next Duchess of York would be an Englishwoman.”
-Derek Chapman, The Merry Mistresses of Hampton Court: The Lives and Times of the Duchesses of York (1990)​
 
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Great update! Is Henry still going to have 6 wives?

I don't think we're going that far, given Henry doesn't have control of the legal system to arrange show trials for inconvenient wives. My plan is to have a continuing York line descended from OTL's Henry VIII with The Merry Mistresses of Hampton Court being similar to this OTL book on the women of Cliveden.

Whether and how in depth I'll go into the Duchesses of York not married to Prince Henry remains to be seen, but we'll eventually get back to Henry and his search for a second wife after a few stops elsewhere on the timeline
 
Bonus Photos- Neapolitan Affairs
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1506 betrothal portrait sent to the Duke of York supposedly of his fiancee Giulia of Naples, actually of her friend (and York's eventual mistress) Marianna Carafa

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A 1512 portrait of Giulia of Naples, Duchess of York, commissioned after the birth of her son Henry. The painting is believed to be a more accurate representation of the Duchess' actual appearance.
 
Guilia is beautiful. Period. Screw Henry.

Can't Arthur put a stop to Henry's wild schenanigangs?

Honestly, due to Henry's close proximity to the line of succession (he's still 3rd at this point), it is much more politically expedient to blame it on the two foreigners (Marianna as bewitching Henry/being over ambitious and Giulia as making mountains out of molehills) then the Duke of York. While Arthur, and even Henry VII while he was alive, weren't thrilled about what was going on they were operating under the powerful theory of "he's an idiot, but he's our idiot"

At least nobody got executed over it...
Yep, the saving grace of both women is a) Henry isn't King meaning he can't arrange his favorite show trials to kill of troublesome wives and b) they both come from powerful foreign families (Giulia is a distant niece of Ferdinand of Aragon and Marianna has several relatives in the church including OTL's Paul IV) meaning it's much harder to kill them off.
 
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