WI: Switch the Fates of Arthur Tudor and Catherine of Aragon

[WillVictoria]

In 1502, shortly after the royal wedding, Arthur Tudor and his bride Catherine of Aragon both became ill with sweating sickness. IOTL Catherine of Aragon survived while her new husband perished, leaving Arthur's little brother Henry as heir to England. However, what if the young couple's fates were reversed, and it was Arthur who pulled through while Catherine met her end in Wales?

1. Who would the now widowed Arthur marry? Catherine has no single siblings, thus England will have to look outside Spain for a bride.
2. Without Arthur's death leaving England without a spare his parents likely don't have another baby in hopes of securing the succession and Elizabeth of York survives. How might this impact the remainder of Henry VII's reign and the beginning of Arthur's?
3. How might the death of her youngest daughter, not long after the loss of the Prince of Asturias, Isabel, and Miguel de la Paz, impact Isabella I's already suspect health? What would be the consequences if Isabella dies ahead of schedule?
4. Any other thoughts on how this change of fates impacts the timeline.

 

[isabella]

As next bride for Arthur considering who Spain, Portugal, Burgundy and France have nobody to offer, maybe one of Maximilian I of Austria's bavarian nieces?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sidonie_of_Bavaria, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sibylle_of_Bavaria or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sabina_of_Bavaria
(And I can tell you who if the age gap is not insuperable Arthur's son will marry a princess of Austria/Spain or Portugal (Catherine of Austria, if she is still born ATL, an ATL younger sister if Philip live longer than OTL or an ATL younger daughter of Manuel I of Portugal and Maria of Aragon and Castile).

Isabella dying in 1502 would be likely a very good thing for poor Juana, her mental health and her chance to rule her kingdom...

 

[Kellan Sullivan]

As next bride for Arthur considering who Spain, Portugal, Burgundy and France have nobody to offer, maybe one of Maximilian I of Austria's bavarian nieces?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sidonie_of_Bavaria, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sibylle_of_Bavaria or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sabina_of_Bavaria
(And I can tell you who if the age gap is not insuperable Arthur's son will marry a princess of Austria/Spain or Portugal (Catherine of Austria, if she is still born ATL, an ATL younger sister if Philip live longer than OTL or an ATL younger daughter of Manuel I of Portugal and Maria of Aragon and Castile).

Isabella dying in 1502 would be likely a very good thing for poor Juana, her mental health and her chance to rule her kingdom...

Marguerite d'Angoulême probably gets offered from the French side. Or one of the Navarrese infantas.
The Habsburgs have the twice widowed Margarethe to offer (Philipp offered her for Henry VII/Henry VIII when he got stranded in England).
Trastamaras can offer Giulia or Isabella of Naples.

 

[Fabius Maximus]

• Any other thoughts on how this change of fates impacts the timeline.

Well, the big one would be that England most likely remains Catholic.

 

[WillVictoria]

Marguerite d'Angoulême probably gets offered from the French side. Or one of the Navarrese infantas.
The Habsburgs have the twice widowed Margarethe to offer (Philipp offered her for Henry VII/Henry VIII when he got stranded in England).
Trastamaras can offer Giulia or Isabella of Naples.

With regards to the various candidates offered by both you and isabella

• Of the Bavarian girls, Sidonie makes the most sense, both from an age standpoint (as Henry probably wants Arthur remarried asap) but she isn't the most prestigious match
• Marguerite of Angouleme would be interesting, maybe with the promise that Mary Tudor will marry into the Tratsmara/Habsburgs?
• Margarethe of Austria is probably a no, she's prestigious but her marital history leaves alarm bells, plus when Henry and Arthur initially search for brides she'll still be married to Savoy
• With regards to the Neopolitan girls, Isabella is likely too young (only 2 at the time of Catherine's death), but Giulia could work.

So the current shortlist is Sidonie of Bavaria, Marguerite of Angouleme, and Giulia of Naples. Who do you think would make the most sense as Princess of Wales, one of those three or someone else?

 

[isabella]

Marguerite d'Angoulême probably gets offered from the French side. Or one of the Navarrese infantas.
The Habsburgs have the twice widowed Margarethe to offer (Philipp offered her for Henry VII/Henry VIII when he got stranded in England).
Trastamaras can offer Giulia or Isabella of Naples.

Margaret of Burgundy is already married and not yet widowed by Savoy (Philibert will die only in late 1504), Marguerite of Angoulême is a little too young (sure she will be offered and has the same age of the younger bavarian princess but still), Suzanne de Bourbon is a year older than Marguerite and much closer to the royal family but still unlikely to be offered (and likely too young) , Giulia of Naples has the age of Marguerite and Isabella is really way too young. The princesses of Navarre are also too young (Anne the eldest has the same age of Marguerite, Giulia and Sabina who will imply a wait of four years before the wedding)

France will likely offer Germaine of Foix who is around the right age and Austria will offer Sidonie or Sybille of Bavaria (who are still the daughters of a reigning duke and the nieces of the Emperor) while Spain has nobody to offer so either one of them or some other german or italian princess but still the bavarian girls are the best options for both age and rank (plus Lancastrian blood)

EDIT: considering who the main reason for which Edward IV, Richard III and Henry VII were so interested in princesses from Portugal/Spain was their indisputable legitimate Lancastrian blood as the daughters of John of Lancaster were married in Portugal and Castile and the only available brides with that blood are the bavarian girls I think we have our next princess of Wales

 

[WillVictoria]

Margaret of Burgundy is already married and not yet widowed by Savoy (Philibert will die only in late 1504), Marguerite of Angoulême is a little too young (sure she will be offered and has the same age of the younger bavarian princess but still), Suzanne de Bourbon is a year older than Marguerite and much closer to the royal family but still unlikely to be offered (and likely too young) , Giulia of Naples has the age of Marguerite and Isabella is really way too young. The princesses of Navarre are also too young (Anne the eldest has the same age of Marguerite, Giulia and Sabina who will imply a wait of four years before the wedding)

France will likely offer Germaine of Foix who is around the right age and Austria will offer Sidonie or Sybille of Bavaria (who are still the daughters of a reigning duke and the nieces of the Emperor) while Spain has nobody to offer so either one of them or some other german or italian princess but still the bavarian girls are the best options for both age and rank (plus Lancastrian blood)

EDIT: considering who the main reason for which Edward IV, Richard III and Henry VII were so interested in princesses from Portugal/Spain was their indisputable legitimate Lancastrian blood as the daughters of John of Lancaster were married in Portugal and Castile and the only available brides with that blood are the bavarian girls I think we have our next princess of Wales

Ok, so let's say Arthur marries Sidonie of Bavaria and (as happened IOTL when Sidonie died, Sybille replaces her in marrying Louis of the Palatinate) and have the following children:

1. Elizabeth (1505)
2. Henry (1507)
3. Sidonie (1508)
4. Arthur (1510)
5. Margaret (1512)
6. Mary (1516)

So by the time Henry VII dies, if we push his death back 2-3 years due to less stress, Arthur has a surviving son and daughter. Could one of the two young runner-ups like Marguerite or Giulia end up marrying Henry, Duke of York? I know there's the longstanding rumor/legend that Henry the younger was meant for the church, but let's say Arthur near-death experience leaves his father sufficiently spooked and causes him to see value in Henry producing legitimate spares.

Also with regards to Elizabeth and Arthur, the latter likely marries Catherine of Austria but who would be a good husband for Elizabeth of England? She'll be a handsome catch on the marriage market as if her brother has no surviving children she is heir to England.

 

[isabella]

Ok, so let's say Arthur marries Sidonie of Bavaria and (as happened IOTL when Sidonie died, Sybille replaces her in marrying Louis of the Palatinate) and have the following children:

1. Elizabeth (1505)
2. Henry (1507)
3. Sidonie (1508)
4. Arthur (1510)
5. Margaret (1512)
6. Mary (1516)

So by the time Henry VII dies, if we push his death back 2-3 years due to less stress, Arthur has a surviving son and daughter. Could one of the two young runner-ups like Marguerite or Giulia end up marrying Henry, Duke of York? I know there's the longstanding rumor/legend that Henry the younger was meant for the church, but let's say Arthur near-death experience leaves his father sufficiently spooked and causes him to see value in Henry producing legitimate spares.

Also with regards to Elizabeth and Arthur, the latter likely marries Catherine of Austria but who would be a good husband for Elizabeth of England? She'll be a handsome catch on the marriage market as if her brother has no surviving children she is heir to England.

Marguerite is unlikely to be offered to Arthur and impossible for Henry....
For the Duke of York I think your choices are: Giulia of Naples, Isabella of Naples, Anne of Navarre, Magdalena of Navarre, Catherine of Navarre or some Italian/German princess or an English noblewoman...

Elizabeth of England will be surely taken in consideration as bride for Charles V and I do not know if his Queen Isabella will be her or Isabella of Portugal as OTL

 

[Jan Olbracht]

Career in Church is for third sons. Second sons were needed as spares if something happened to first born, even if Henry stays unmarried he'll not join clergy, so he'd be ready to take the throne instantly in case of Arthur's death.

 

[isabella]

Career in Church is for third sons. Second sons were needed as spares if something happened to first born, even if Henry stays unmarried he'll not join clergy, so he'd be ready to take the throne instantly in case of Arthur's death.

Popes usually are quick enough to release princes from their vows if needed (and usually princes had taken only the minor orders so that was not a big trouble)

 

[WillVictoria]

Marguerite is unlikely to be offered to Arthur and impossible for Henry....
For the Duke of York I think your choices are: Giulia of Naples, Isabella of Naples, Anne of Navarre, Magdalena of Navarre, Catherine of Navarre or some Italian/German princess or an English noblewoman...

Elizabeth of England will be surely taken in consideration as bride for Charles V and I do not know if his Queen Isabella will be her or Isabella of Portugal as OTL

With regards to Henry, let's have him marry Giulia of Naples as a consolation to Ferdinand, with the possibility of a second marriage to an English noblewoman if Giulia dies early for some reason.

With regards to Elizabeth of England versus Isabel of Portugal, the question is which would be more valuable to Spain, ties with Portugal to allow for easier exploration of the sea and a secure border or the potential of inheriting England?

Career in Church is for third sons. Second sons were needed as spares if something happened to first born, even if Henry stays unmarried he'll not join clergy, so he'd be ready to take the throne instantly in case of Arthur's death.

I agree I was just referencing the oft-quoted (but not well supported) claim that the future Henry VIII was destined for the church before Arthur died. Personally, I think Henry will be married off to provide extra insurance for the throne. However a younger son of Henry's might end up in the church so as to prevent too many cousins with claims to the throne running around

 

[WillVictoria]

Sorry for the double post, but another interesting question is what happens if Isabella, propelled by the loss of yet another child, dies in late 1502. Juana is now Queen of Castile with three children (Eleanor, Charles, & Isabella) and is currently pregnant. For additional butterflies let's say the news of her mother's death and her ascension to the throne causes Juana to miscarry/go into early labor with OTL's Emperor Ferdinand.

Now Juana and Philip would likely still be in Castile at this point, with Juana having just been recognized by the Cortes as Princess of Asturias, so how would the power dynamics between Juana, Philip, and Ferdinand play out compared to OTL. I assume Ferdinand will still remarry, possibly to Germaine of Foix, in an attempt to screw Philip (and Juana, but mainly Philip) out of Aragon, but he might have a harder time grabbing power from his daughter than IOTL, particularly if Philip doesn't conveniently die and leave a grieving Juana for Ferdinand to declare insane.

 

[isabella]

Sorry for the double post, but another interesting question is what happens if Isabella, propelled by the loss of yet another child, dies in late 1502. Juana is now Queen of Castile with three children (Eleanor, Charles, & Isabella) and is currently pregnant. For additional butterflies let's say the news of her mother's death and her ascension to the throne causes Juana to miscarry/go into early labor with OTL's Emperor Ferdinand.

Now Juana and Philip would likely still be in Castile at this point, with Juana having just been recognized by the Cortes as Princess of Asturias, so how would the power dynamics between Juana, Philip, and Ferdinand play out compared to OTL. I assume Ferdinand will still remarry, possibly to Germaine of Foix, in an attempt to screw Philip (and Juana, but mainly Philip) out of Aragon, but he might have a harder time grabbing power from his daughter than IOTL, particularly if Philip doesn't conveniently die and leave a grieving Juana for Ferdinand to declare insane.

I do not think Isabella's death can cause a miscarriage for Juana as her mother death will left her in a much better position here than OTL (and will likely butterfly the worst of her melancholy/jealosy/madness) as much of the things who caused her to be declared mad will never happen here (really if she had not miscarred Ferdinand and Catherine OTL is unlikely external circumstances will led to an ATL miscarriage)

With regards to Henry, let's have him marry Giulia of Naples as a consolation to Ferdinand, with the possibility of a second marriage to an English noblewoman if Giulia dies early for some reason.

With regards to Elizabeth of England versus Isabel of Portugal, the question is which would be more valuable to Spain, ties with Portugal to allow for easier exploration of the sea and a secure border or the potential of inheriting England?



I agree I was just referencing the oft-quoted (but not well supported) claim that the future Henry VIII was destined for the church before Arthur died. Personally, I think Henry will be married off to provide extra insurance for the throne. However a younger son of Henry's might end up in the church so as to prevent too many cousins with claims to the throne running around

Isabella of Portugal is the more valuable for Spain, Elizabeth of England for Burgundy and Anna of Bohemia and Hungary for Austria so everything will be dependent from which kingdom will have the precedence in the choice of a bride for Charles (really the best solution will be having Philip and Juana having three sons)

 

[WillVictoria]

I do not think Isabella's death can cause a miscarriage for Juana as her mother death will left her in a much better position here than OTL (and will likely butterfly the worst of her melancholy/jealosy/madness) as much of the things who caused her to be declared mad will never happen here (really if she had not miscarred Ferdinand and Catherine OTL is unlikely external circumstances will led to an ATL miscarriage)


Isabella of Portugal is the more valuable for Spain, Elizabeth of England for Burgundy and Anna of Bohemia and Hungary for Austria so everything will be dependent from which kingdom will have the precedence in the choice of a bride for Charles (really the best solution will be having Philip and Juana having three sons)

Good to know. Let's say butterflies cause Maria to instead be born Philip and that Philip the elder lives longer to give the following children

1. Eleanor (1498) m. King of Portugal
2. Charles (1500) m. Isabella of Portugal, line inherits Spain
3. Isabella (1501) m. King of Denmark
4. Ferdinand (1503) m. Anna of Bohemia, line inherits Austria
5. Philip (1505) m. Elizabeth of England, line inherits Burgundy
6. Catherine (1507) m. King of Hungary and Bohemia
7. Maria (1509) m. Prince of Wales

Given Juana will have time ruling Castile and later Aragon, will they split the inheritance automatically where Charles gets Spain when Juana dies and his brothers get their inheritance when Philip the Fair passes, or will we see the same scheme as OTL where Charles got Austria and Spain and didn't split the two between his son and brother until he abdicated.

How do you guys think Juana would rule as a monarch? Would she continue in the mold of her mother, or deviate in a significant way (ex: maybe she's not as gung-ho on the Inquisition)?

 

[kasumigenx]

Joanna of Naples who ITTL was considered for Henry VII can marry Arthur, Prince of Wales.

 

[isabella]

Good to know. Let's say butterflies cause Maria to instead be born Philip and that Philip the elder lives longer to give the following children

1. Eleanor (1498) m. King of Portugal
2. Charles (1500) m. Isabella of Portugal, line inherits Spain
3. Isabella (1501) m. King of Denmark
4. Ferdinand (1503) m. Anna of Bohemia, line inherits Austria
5. Philip (1505) m. Elizabeth of England, line inherits Burgundy
6. Catherine (1507) m. King of Hungary and Bohemia
7. Maria (1509) m. Prince of Wales

Given Juana will have time ruling Castile and later Aragon, will they split the inheritance automatically where Charles gets Spain when Juana dies and his brothers get their inheritance when Philip the Fair passes, or will we see the same scheme as OTL where Charles got Austria and Spain and didn't split the two between his son and brother until he abdicated.

How do you guys think Juana would rule as a monarch? Would she continue in the mold of her mother, or deviate in a significant way (ex: maybe she's not as gung-ho on the Inquisition)?

Weddings list for Austria/Spain/Burgundy and England (Arthur, Henry, young Arthur and Elizabeth) looks fine.
Considering who unlike OTL Queen Juana and Emperor Philip will live longer than their parents they will have the united kingdom and then will split it between their sons...
Oh, no way the Inquisition will have the OTL power with Juana (and Philip) in charge

 

[WillVictoria]

The next question is who will Mary Tudor marry, besides her OTL husband Louis XII? Maybe have Eleanor of Austria marry Joao of Portugal instead of his father Manuel, leaving Manuel open for Mary Tudor?

If so, my idea is to have Mary wed Manuel and have one surviving child, called Maria, before Manuel ahead of schedule in 1519. With Maria as an anchor, Mary Tudor stays in Portugal but, similar to her sister Margaret IOTL, ends up marrying a nobleman. I was thinking maybe she becomes the second wife of Jaime, the Duke of Braganza?

 

[Kellan Sullivan]

The next question is who will Mary Tudor marry, besides her OTL husband Louis XII? Maybe have Eleanor of Austria marry Joao of Portugal instead of his father Manuel, leaving Manuel open for Mary Tudor?

If so, my idea is to have Mary wed Manuel and have one surviving child, called Maria, before Manuel ahead of schedule in 1519. With Maria as an anchor, Mary Tudor stays in Portugal but, similar to her sister Margaret IOTL, ends up marrying a nobleman. I was thinking maybe she becomes the second wife of Jaime, the Duke of Braganza?

Or Eleonore still marries Manuel and Mary marries João/a surviving Miguel da Paz as a way of cleaning out the Iberian genetic pool. Of course Maria's prospects could be interesting if she marries half as well as her half sisters did OTL.

 

[WillVictoria]

Or Eleonore still marries Manuel and Mary marries João/a surviving Miguel da Paz as a way of cleaning out the Iberian genetic pool. Of course Maria's prospects could be interesting if she marries half as well as her half sisters did OTL.

Miguel is already dead by the POD (1502) so no dice there.

One reason for having Eleanor marry Joao and Mary wed Manuel is that being rejected by his intended bride, in favor of his father of all people, apparently did a number on poor Joao, so removing this confidence blow could shape his personality. In addition, Eleanor will be a bit closer in age to Joao then Mary (4 year age difference vs. 6) so added fertility time for all involved.

 

[isabella]

Mary Tudor as Manuel third wife can work...
Eleanor here with her parents alive will never marry Manuel and without any English engagement will be always destined to Joao and Portugal so they will marry without doubt