WI: Fernando of Aragon Marries Juana "la Beltraneja" Instead of Isabel

[Kellan Sullivan]

Since Fernando displayed interest in marrying either, let's say Isabel dies before they're wed (maybe around the same time as her brother, maybe she's killed en route to wed Fernando, either way, she's making like a doornail - my reason for this is simple: no power on earth will make her wed against her wishes, and she's not marrying against her will once Alfonso dies). So, his backup is to marry La Beltraneja (Fernando apparently came into possession of Enrique IV's will after Isabel died, and therein Enrique swore that Juana "la Beltraneja" was his daughter) and promise to protect her rights a la Affonso V of Portugal.

How different is Spanish (is there even a Spain as we know it?) history?

 

[WillVictoria]

A lot will depend on whether the union produces surviving heirs, particularly male heirs. Let's say they marry in 1475 (when Juana married the King of Portugal IOTL) use this potential list with bold surviving childhood

1. Juana (1479)
2. Maria (1482)
3. Enrique (1484)
4. Leonor (1490)

ITTL Spain will (likely) have a ruler who is solely focused on Spain rather than Charles V who was splitting his attention between Spain, Burgundy, and the HRE, however, they also won't have the perks of the King being the Emperor. We can still get a Habsburg connection by marrying the eldest surviving daughter Maria off to Philip the fair (or an ATL counterpart).

I'm less sure as to how Juana ends up ruling, but I'm about to start reading a biography about Isabella so maybe I'll get some insight there. One thing I feel confident about is that Juana will try to thread the needle between proving to the doubters that she's her (purported) father's daughter by honoring him and continuing some policies without making too much noise about it so people will forget there ever was a rumor.

 

[Kellan Sullivan]

I'm less sure as to how Juana ends up ruling, but I'm about to start reading a biography about Isabella so maybe I'll get some insight there. One thing I feel confident about is that Juana will try to thread the needle between proving to the doubters that she's her (purported) father's daughter by honoring him and continuing some policies without making too much noise about it so people will forget there ever was a rumor.

From what I've read about Enrique's court, it seems that it was far more morally/religiously loose than Isabel's was., for instance, Enrique had a Moorish bodyguard (although under outside pressure he later disbanded it), which would have shocked Isabel's court. The sort of rigorous (almost severe) Catholicism we associate with Spain is also more after Isabel's model (the woman had Torquemada as her confessor and Ximenes was another pet cleric (there was a third guy too (ICR who), I think, Isabel offered him a bishopric and he refused it, saying he would accept no bishopric but Granada)) that got applied top-down.

Isabel also apparently saw this laxity as why God allowed her brother to suffer rebellions and an unfaithful wife etc. La Beltraneja's not necessarily going to see it like that. More like rebellious subjects who didn't know their place.

As to kids, I was wondering if Juana can at least have more than one son (WITHOUT Spain being split into Aragon and Castile once the respective parents die)...

EDIT: Just remembered who the third of the Isabelline trinity of clerics was: Torquemada, head of the Inquisition; Ximines, archbishop of Toledo; and Talavera, her confessor and 1e archbishop of Granada

 

[WillVictoria]

From what I've read about Enrique's court, it seems that it was far more morally/religiously loose than Isabel's was., for instance, Enrique had a Moorish bodyguard (although under outside pressure he later disbanded it), which would have shocked Isabel's court. The sort of rigorous (almost severe) Catholicism we associate with Spain is also more after Isabel's model (the woman had Torquemada as her confessor and Ximenes was another pet cleric (there was a third guy too (ICR who), I think, Isabel offered him a bishopric and he refused it, saying he would accept no bishopric but Granada)) that got applied top-down.

Isabel also apparently saw this laxity as why God allowed her brother to suffer rebellions and an unfaithful wife etc. La Beltraneja's not necessarily going to see it like that. More like rebellious subjects who didn't know their place.

As to kids, I was wondering if Juana can at least have more than one son (WITHOUT Spain being split into Aragon and Castile once the respective parents die)...

Sure, I just used a random gender generator to pick the genders, so let's go with instead.

1. Infanta Juana (1479)
2. Infanta Maria (1482)
3. Infante Enrique (1484)
4. Infanta Leonor (1490)
5. Infante Juan (1493)
6. Infanta Catalina (1495)
7. Infante Fernando (1500)

Here Ferdinand and Juana have 3 surviving sons to secure the succession and 2 daughters to marry off. With regards to their upbringing, it depends on how Juana reacts to her victory. On one hand, she wants to prove she is her father's daughter by reigning in a similar manner; on the other, she might see it as God's grace for her keeping her throne and go hard on the Catholicism bandwagon in response.

Who knows, she might get a personality similar to a certain OTL female monarch with a disliked mother and (probably false) rumors about the paternity. Long live Gloriana!

 

[Kellan Sullivan]

With regards to their upbringing, it depends on how Juana reacts to her victory. On one hand, she wants to prove she is her father's daughter by reigning in a similar manner; on the other, she might see it as God's grace for her keeping her throne and go hard on the Catholicism bandwagon in response.

Who knows, she might get a personality similar to a certain OTL female monarch with a disliked mother and (probably false) rumors about the paternity. Long live Gloriana!

Would we see a Reconquista of Granada in this scenario? I realize it's probably pretty far in the future but I figure whether hardline Catholic like Isabel or more pragmatic like Elizabeth, Granada is still a potential "problem" (Fernando and Isabel's reconquest started when the emir refused to pay up, responding to their ambassador "Tell your queen that steel is what comes from Granada not gold!").

 

[isabella]

Sure, I just used a random gender generator to pick the genders, so let's go with instead.

1. Infanta Juana (1479)
2. Infanta Maria (1482)
3. Infante Enrique (1484)
4. Infanta Leonor (1490)
5. Infante Juan (1493)
6. Infanta Catalina (1495)
7. Infante Fernando (1500)

Here Ferdinand and Juana have 3 surviving sons to secure the succession and 2 daughters to marry off. With regards to their upbringing, it depends on how Juana reacts to her victory. On one hand, she wants to prove she is her father's daughter by reigning in a similar manner; on the other, she might see it as God's grace for her keeping her throne and go hard on the Catholicism bandwagon in response.

Who knows, she might get a personality similar to a certain OTL female monarch with a disliked mother and (probably false) rumors about the paternity. Long live Gloriana!

Some wedding suggestions for them:

For Maria either Portugal as bride of Alfonso of Portugal (b 1475) or Austria-Burgundy as bride of Philip (b. 1478) (maybe Mary of Burgundy can live longer and Anne of Brittany being luckier than OTL so Anne can escape the French and be married to Philip who is only a year younger than her)
Leonor looks too young for either but of the perfect age for being engaged to Arthur Tudor (b 1486) then married to Henry Tudor (b 1491) or can be married to Ferdinand, Duke of Calabria (b 1488)...

Some brides for the boys:
Magaret of Austria-Burgundy is born in 1480 so is a little too old here (but if her mother survive until 1490-1492, Margaret will be married in France but can have an ATL younger sister Mary/Isabelle/Eleanor born in the years between 1483-1492 available for Enrique)
Navarre can offer Anne of Foix-Candale (b 1484) or Germaine of Foix (b 1488) or one of the many daughters of Queen Catherine Anne (b 1492), Magdalena (b 1494), Catherine (b 1495), Joan (b 1496), Quiteria (b 1499) or Isabella (b 1513/1514)
Naples can offer the two daughters of their OTL last king from his second wife: Julia (b 1492) and Isabella (b 1500) as their half sister Charlotte is born in 1480
England: all the York girls here are too old but the daughters of Henry VII and Elizabeth of York are of the right age: Margaret (b 1489), Elizabeth Tudor (b 1492) and Mary (b 1496)

 

[Kellan Sullivan]

then married to Henry Tudor (b 1491) or can be married to Ferdinand, Duke of Calabria (b 1488)...

I didn't see the "or" when I was first reading if, and I thought you were suggesting Henry marry Ferrante

 

[Jan Olbracht]

I didn't see the "or" when I was first reading if, and I thought you were suggesting Henry marry Ferrante

That would be interesting scenario-Henry breaks with Rome, because Pope refused him dispensation to marry Ferrante

 

[isabella]

I didn't see the "or" when I was first reading if, and I thought you were suggesting Henry marry Ferrante

Oh, please... What about a serious comment about my suggestions?

My favourite scenario see:
Philip of Austria-Burgundy marry Anne of Brittany
Margaret of Austria-Burgundy marry Charles VIII of France
Eleanor/Isabelle of Austria-Burgundy marry Enrique of Spain
Maria of Spain marry Alfonso of Portugal
Leonor of Spain marry Henry VIII of England

Henry can also marry another ATL Archduchess of Austria-Burgundy

 

[Kellan Sullivan]

Oh, please... What about a serious comment about my suggestions?

I think a Navarrese match sort of pales against the possibility of an Austrian/Imperial match. But also, Fernando's pre-requisite for his daughters wedding to either Naples or Navarre was that the prince be able to hang onto his crown. However, if a younger son were to marry say, Giulia, and successfully claim Naples through her (let the duke of Calabria meet the same fate as his brothers - dying young) by proximity of blood (she's full sister of Ferrante vs. Charlotte who's only half, plus married to a Frenchman), it could be one way of providing for a younger son who otherwise would have limited prospects.

I wonder if one of the younger girls might be offered as a replacement wife for Vladislaus of Bohemia? In a TL (can't remember where I saw it, sorry) where both her brother and eldest sister survive, Maria of Aragon gets courted by him and Christian II of Denmark. She winds up married to James of Scotland with her younger sister becoming queen of England (can't remember what happened to Margaret Tudor).

 

[WillVictoria]

Oh, please... What about a serious comment about my suggestions?

My favourite scenario see:
Philip of Austria-Burgundy marry Anne of Brittany
Margaret of Austria-Burgundy marry Charles VIII of France
Eleanor/Isabelle of Austria-Burgundy marry Enrique of Spain
Maria of Spain marry Alfonso of Portugal
Leonor of Spain marry Henry VIII of England

Henry can also marry another ATL Archduchess of Austria-Burgundy

Honestly based on the POD (in the 1470s) the Tudors may never come to the throne. The butterfly that causes Ferdinand to marry Juana could also cause Edward IV to live longer, Edward V to get crowned, or Richard III to win Bosworth.

 

[FillyofDelphi]

Would we see a Reconquista of Granada in this scenario? I realize it's probably pretty far in the future but I figure whether hardline Catholic like Isabel or more pragmatic like Elizabeth, Granada is still a potential "problem" (Fernando and Isabel's reconquest started when the emir refused to pay up, responding to their ambassador "Tell your queen that steel is what comes from Granada not gold!").

It's less likely in the immediate term; less so because Castile would lack the capabilities to subdue the emirate (Though the campaign is likely longer and bloodier), but because such a move would disrupt the balance of power on the peninsula and create a clash of interests with Aragon if there isent some understanding reached beforehand. Granada would still have an economic lifeline in this scenario via trade with Aragon and a source of potential mercenary manpower, which shifts the relative powers in any Conquest tilt closer to parity than IOTL and creates the possibility of Aragonese or Portugese meddling in Toledo's affairs (for their own advantage, not out of any sympathy for the Moors) if they get stuck in the campaign too long and expend too many resources.

But you'd see it eventually; control of the region would be too valuable and too tempting, as Castile's power is on the accent while Granada really dosent have anybody who can bail them out if things go wrong. Castile would just need to wait for the right geopolitical opening.

 

[isabella]

Honestly based on the POD (in the 1470s) the Tudors may never come to the throne. The butterfly that causes Ferdinand to marry Juana could also cause Edward IV to live longer, Edward V to get crowned, or Richard III to win Bosworth.

Sure, but usually I try to stick to OTL if I not have already supposed butterflies for that area...

So we can have Richard III marrying Joana of Portugal in late 1485 or 1486 with Elizabeth of York marrying Manuel, Duke of Beja in the same year.
Any idea about their children?

 

[BlueFlowwer]

Well Richard and Joanna can have children, in my TL they had 6, of wich 4 lived.

 

[Kellan Sullivan]

It's less likely in the immediate term; less so because Castile would lack the capabilities to subdue the emirate (Though the campaign is likely longer and bloodier), but because such a move would disrupt the balance of power on the peninsula and create a clash of interests with Aragon if there isent some understanding reached beforehand. Granada would still have an economic lifeline in this scenario via trade with Aragon and a source of potential mercenary manpower, which shifts the relative powers in any Conquest tilt closer to parity than IOTL and creates the possibility of Aragonese or Portugese meddling in Toledo's affairs (for their own advantage, not out of any sympathy for the Moors) if they get stuck in the campaign too long and expend too many resources.

But you'd see it eventually; control of the region would be too valuable and too tempting, as Castile's power is on the accent while Granada really dosent have anybody who can bail them out if things go wrong. Castile would just need to wait for the right geopolitical opening.

Wait I'm confused. if there's no Succession War, and Fernando marries Juana, wouldn't Castile have MORE resources sooner than OTL? I mean Isabel played a massive role in the armies, importing gunsmiths and armourers etc from abroad, setting up flying hospitals and the like, but it's hardly as though Juana/Fernando or a minister/commander couldn't fill that function here.

 

[FillyofDelphi]

Wait I'm confused. if there's no Succession War, and Fernando marries Juana, wouldn't Castile have MORE resources sooner than OTL? I mean Isabel played a massive role in the armies, importing gunsmiths and armourers etc from abroad, setting up flying hospitals and the like, but it's hardly as though Juana/Fernando or a minister/commander couldn't fill that function here.

I think you either have it backwards in your head, or you had a brain fart and switched Fernando and Isabel/Aragon and Castile in your typing. The conquest of Granada was primarily a Castilian affair, so how could Fernando fill those functions in a completely forgien realm?

 

[Kellan Sullivan]

I think you either have it backwards in your head, or you had a brain fart and switched Fernando and Isabel/Aragon and Castile in your typing. The conquest of Granada was primarily a Castilian affair, so how could Fernando fill those functions in a completely forgien realm?

No, I didn't. I'm aware Fernando had no power in Castile as long as his wife lived. But here, he's married to La Beltraneja instead of Isabel (who's joined her brother in the choir invisible). Fernando had no interest in Granada, true, but Isabel basically sweet-talked him, told him that they could go after his Mediterranean dreams ONCE Granada was taken. Fernando, knowing that he couldn't really do anything about Naples, Sicily, Italy against the French w/o Castile's backing grudgingly agreed.

There's no proof that Juana would govern the same as Isabel or that she would/n't deny Fernando any participation in her realm. My money's on the marriage contract stipulating that Fernando is to have no say in Castile's affairs, Juana none in Aragon's.

 

[isabella]

I think you either have it backwards in your head, or you had a brain fart and switched Fernando and Isabel/Aragon and Castile in your typing. The conquest of Granada was primarily a Castilian affair, so how could Fernando fill those functions in a completely forgien realm?

Fernando II of Aragonn would be married to Juana I of Castile so his role as King Consort of Castile and being married to a less stronger Queen and woman (because love or hate her you can not deny who Isabel was a force of the nature) than OTL would have much more power and influence than OTL

No, I didn't. I'm aware Fernando had no power in Castile as long as his wife lived. But here, he's married to La Beltraneja instead of Isabel (who's joined her brother in the choir invisible). Fernando had no interest in Granada, true, but Isabel basically sweet-talked him, told him that they could go after his Mediterranean dreams ONCE Granada was taken. Fernando, knowing that he couldn't really do anything about Naples, Sicily, Italy against the French w/o Castile's backing grudgingly agreed.

There's no proof that Juana would govern the same as Isabel or that she would/n't deny Fernando any participation in her realm. My money's on the marriage contract stipulating that Fernando is to have no say in Castile's affairs, Juana none in Aragon's.

You wanted to say "wedding contract stipulating not that Fernando is to have no say in Castile's affairs but Juana none in Aragon's"?

 

[Kellan Sullivan]

You wanted to say "wedding contract stipulating not that Fernando is to have no say in Castile's affairs but Juana none in Aragon's"?

Like you said, Juana's NOT Isabel. Her personality's different. The fact that the woman still signs herself "la rayna" when she clearly isn't, indicates a) a backbone, b) a spirit and c) something very much like arrogance. I have a feeling that Fernando's not necessarily going to find Juana as much of a yes-no-3-bags-full as might be expected.

Another thing I realized: doesn't Juana instead of Isabel mean there's no chance of a Juana la Loca down the road?

 

[isabella]

Like you said, Juana's NOT Isabel. Her personality's different. The fact that the woman still signs herself "la rayna" when she clearly isn't, indicates a) a backbone, b) a spirit and c) something very much like arrogance. I have a feeling that Fernando's not necessarily going to find Juana as much of a yes-no-3-bags-full as might be expected.

Another thing I realized: doesn't Juana instead of Isabel mean there's no chance of a Juana la Loca down the road?

I fear the danger will still be the same as both Juana and Isabel were daughters of portuguese princesses and the madness came from that line...
Considering who Juana in truth was absolutely not mad (she was suffering mostly: of jealousy because she was very much in love with her husband; for the striking contrast between the court life and religious conception in Spain and Burgundy who were two worlds apart; because she was not a fantatic religious like her mothewr and her spanish confessor tormented her for that; because her father used her grief for his own betrayal and the death of her beloved husband for imprisoning her and ruling at her place) is pretty unlikely we will see anything like that

Juana was surely a strong woman (I never thinked she would be a submissive bride) but still will be much easier to control than Isabella so a man like Ferdinand would be likely able to get almost everything he wished from her