From Exile to Triumph: a Western Roman Timeline

[Avrorrange]

Spoken like true patricians, all of you. Return power to the plebeian classes!

No representation without taxation mate.Most of you plebeian scum aren't even willing to pay taxes or join the army. There will always be scum of the earth like you,but who will lead the army and staff the bureaucracy if we are gone? Go back to the farm and grow me some grain.Oh wait,you are probably a fat,lazy city dweller who has been on the dole for his entire life!

 

[Droman]

No representation without taxation mate.Most of you plebeian scum aren't even willing to pay taxes or join the army. There will always be scum of the earth like you,but who will lead the army and staff the bureaucracy if we are gone? Go back to the farm and grow me some grain.Oh wait,you are probably a fat,lazy city dweller who has been on the dole for his entire life!

Everyone pays their fair share under the Roman Socialist Republic! By hammer and scythe, or by spear and sword!

 

[RyuDrago]

So, how the Church could and would support conscription? Granted that the Patriarchate would acknowlege the Empire needs an army to protect itself (and the same Church, because the luck which had with previous barbarian invaders won't last forever), it has to realize how to conciliate it with Catholic doctrine. There may be several ideas Rome could work over.
1) God has his own army (the angels) who obeys to him without questioning at all and who attempts to rebel (Lucifer) would end atrociously badly. So the Emperor as God's representant on Earth is allowed to do the same. This could eventually lead to promote a cult of Saint Michael among the military - which besides happened in the Middle Ages from Byzantium and beyond. And would be useful for the Church to eradicate lingering Mithraic resistances. And a moral suasion for the Imperial power against usurpers and traitors.
2) "Give to God what is God and to Caesar what is of Caesar" is surely a more than good and simple explanation to spread among the population to accept the Imperial will. And would be of course the red line which the Church and the Empire would clash.
3) Saint Paul was Roman and soldier, and even after the conversion never rejected but embraced both of them on a Catholic declination. More than sufficient to state that being a soldier won't be an inpure act or not Christian.
4) Hence, the Patriarchate should start to discuss and decide over the dilemma a Christian of his time could face: if I would be a soldier, and I kill an enemy, I wouldn't be damned? No, because would count the intention of the act, and in short the Church would absolve it. In truth I don't know how the early fathers of the Church and the various councils dealed if not at all over such issues - Maybe Ambrose or Agustin did before on the Western side?

In short: the Church would have plently of arguments to justify and support the Imperial policy of conscription, what I am more in doubt, more for lack of knowledge about, is the implicite contradiction in early Christian teachings. But the Church never questioned the use of military force in itself so I am wondering a bit too much on this one.

 

[Flavius Iulius Nepos]

So, how the Church could and would support conscription? Granted that the Patriarchate would acknowlege the Empire needs an army to protect itself (and the same Church, because the luck which had with previous barbarian invaders won't last forever), it has to realize how to conciliate it with Catholic doctrine. There may be several ideas Rome could work over.
1) God has his own army (the angels) who obeys to him without questioning at all and who attempts to rebel (Lucifer) would end atrociously badly. So the Emperor as God's representant on Earth is allowed to do the same. This could eventually lead to promote a cult of Saint Michael among the military - which besides happened in the Middle Ages from Byzantium and beyond. And would be useful for the Church to eradicate lingering Mithraic resistances. And a moral suasion for the Imperial power against usurpers and traitors.
2) "Give to God what is God and to Caesar what is of Caesar" is surely a more than good and simple explanation to spread among the population to accept the Imperial will. And would be of course the red line which the Church and the Empire would clash.
3) Saint Paul was Roman and soldier, and even after the conversion never rejected but embraced both of them on a Catholic declination. More than sufficient to state that being a soldier won't be an inpure act or not Christian.
4) Hence, the Patriarchate should start to discuss and decide over the dilemma a Christian of his time could face: if I would be a soldier, and I kill an enemy, I wouldn't be damned? No, because would count the intention of the act, and in short the Church would absolve it. In truth I don't know how the early fathers of the Church and the various councils dealed if not at all over such issues - Maybe Ambrose or Agustin did before on the Western side?

In short: the Church would have plently of arguments to justify and support the Imperial policy of conscription, what I am more in doubt, more for lack of knowledge about, is the implicite contradiction in early Christian teachings. But the Church never questioned the use of military force in itself so I am wondering a bit too much on this one.

That is a perfect ideological justification for the conscription of soldiers. I'm not entirely sure but I think the forth point had been already dealt by Augustine, before being reused during the Middle age. The problems here is that most of the civilians don't oppose military service for ideological reasons, they oppose it because life in the army is not really appealing, while landowners refuse to cede their manpower because they would lose part of their income. Not even the justifications proposed by the Church could convince these men to value the interests of the empire/church over their own interests. Finally I fear that the church could profit more than the empire (in the long term) if we tie too much the military to church. Anyway I think that overall this could be an useful premise, that can support the emperor's measures in this field.

 

[RyuDrago]

That is a perfect ideological justification for the conscription of soldiers. I'm not entirely sure but I think the forth point had been already dealt by Augustine, before being reused during the Middle age. The problems here is that most of the civilians don't oppose military service for ideological reasons, they oppose it because life in the army is not really appealing, while landowners refuse to cede their manpower because they would lose part of their income. Not even the justifications proposed by the Church could convince these men to value the interests of the empire/church over their own interests. Finally I fear that the church could profit more than the empire (in the long term) if we tie too much the military to church. Anyway I think that overall this could be an useful premise, that can support the emperor's measures in this field.

Effectively after searching better is Augustine, on the Civitate Dei, which took the issue, as stated on the Wiki page:

"Augustine’s thesis depicts the history of the world as universal warfare between God and the Devil. This metaphysical war is not limited by time but only by geography on Earth. In this war, God moves (by divine intervention/ Providence) those governments, political /ideological movements and military forces aligned (or aligned the most) with the Catholic Church (the City of God) in order to oppose by all means—including military—those governments, political/ideological movements and military forces aligned (or aligned the most) with the Devil (the City of Devil)."

And sure the Church will take advantage of this, but it would be inevitable that in absence of a temporal power the Papacy would attempt to rely over other sources to gain equivalence with the Imperial power the more it would secularize.

 

[Some Bloke]

Rome slowly recovers from the brink of collapse. I'm following this.

 

[Flavius Iulius Nepos]

Rome slowly recovers from the brink of collapse. I'm following this.

I'm glad to see that people enjoy a roman timeline with such a late POD. Give me some minutes and I'll give you the next chapter.

 

[Flavius Iulius Nepos]

Chapter XX


The rise of a new emperor in the East, brought many problems to the empire. The new administration quickly replaced many Isaurians, who had gained powerful offices under the previous emperor Zeno, with proper Romans. This move immediately earned the eastern emperor the support of the population in the capital. In order to further strengthening his position, Anastasius reduced the burden of taxation imposed to the inhabitants of the cities, with a focus on particular social classes like the artisans and merchants. Meanwhile he ordered the population of the countryside to convert most of their taxes payed in goods in an equivalent sum of money. This last measure was not really appreciated by the farmers of the empire but showed that the eastern empire was once again prospering economically and that the difficulties of the recent years were now over. The Eastern Roman soldiers were among the first to benefit from this economic recovery, now regularly payed with money instead of food (however the use of Annona as a complement to their pays didn’t completely disappear). The fact that now the Goths under Theodoricus Amalus had finally left the Balkans while the Thracian Goths were now struggling to find a successor to Strabo (who died the previous year) meant that the territories of Thracia and Dacia [1] could finally stop to worries about the Gothic threat, at least for a while. Problems, however, appeared in the east. Many prominent former Isaurian officers, unhappy with the current changes, decided to support Zeno’s brother, Longinus and his revolt in Isauria. Quickly however the first pitched battle between the two opposite factions proved the superiority of the imperial army over the Isaurian. Many prominent Isaurians leaders were captured or killed during the battle and what was left of their forces, resorted to a retreat to the Isaurian mountain. The war would continue for 5 more years however Anastasius’ position was now secure and the Isaurian were no longer a powerful faction inside the empire.

Empress Ariadne, key element for the overthrow of the Isaurians​

Shortly after the battle Anastasius received the congratulations of his western colleague Nepos. The western roman emperor, after Zeno’s death, had quickly recognized Anastasius as sole ruler of the East. Nepos choice was a dangerous move, considering that an eventual victory of Longinus would have provoked the worsening of the relations between Rome and Constantinople. Fortunately it didn’t happen and now the West could continue to enjoy the eastern favour. Anastasius decided that a meeting between the two emperor would now be necessary, given the current situation of the Danubian limes. The 2 rulers of the roman world met in the city of Sirmium, along the border between East and West. The city had been reconquered by the Romans only three years ago and still didn’t have entirely recovered from the damages inflicted by the various populations that had attacked her during the previous decades, however the contemporary presence of both emperors and their courts would represent a boon for the city. The presence of an emperor was a fortunate events, but the presence of both represented an unique opportunity for the locals. From the countryside men flocked into the city, to sell their services to the Imperial staff and to enjoy the games and celebrations that both emperor were financing. Some of these men and their family would definitely settle in the city, prompting local authorities to petition the emperors to finance the restoration of the wall and other buildings that could incentive more families to move there, like a Circus and Baths.

​

While the soldiers of the empire where fighting for the restoration of roman authority along the Danube, their emperors were enjoying the celebrations, but also discussing about the current situation of the empire. Anastasius was completely determined to help his colleague to restore security and peace in the Diocesi of Illyricum. A stronger western roman presence in Pannonia would bring benefit also to the eastern sector of the Danube subjected to Anastasius. Hence Anastasius would continue to subside Nepos, as his predecessor did before him, while also contributing 2000 men to the military efforts in Pannonia. However his main focus would go toward the Diocesi of Thracia. Here the Thracian Goths had finally received what they wanted, but Anastasius recognized that they still posed a threat to the heart of the East. Therefore he would resort to the help of the population north of the Danube (like the Bulgars) to keep them busy an unable to further attack the Roman territories. The old ways of paying someone to do the job would remain part of Roman’s habits. However Anastasius refused to finance any major expedition against the Vandals in Africa, despite Nepos’ pleads: the memory of the failure of the last expedition and its economic consequences was still alive in Constantinople, and Anastasius had no intention to squander the imperial treasury. Finally the two emperor discussed also about religious matters. The Monophysite sympathy of the eastern emperor were known to everyone, even to the West. However the emperor had pledged to respect the decision of Chalcedonia and also tried to mediate between the different positions inside the Church, as Zeno tried before him with the Henotikon, instead of imposing his own beliefs over the orthodox population. But the zealotry of some, would quickly prove to be an insurmountable obstacle. Before the end of the year Anastasius departed from the city to return to Constantinople. Overall the meeting could be considered positive: not only the emperors confirmed their will to cooperate but they also established, despite personal and religious difference, a sincere friendship after the months spent together.

Note: [1] Nowaday Serbia.

Ok now some information about the timeline: this Wednesday I will move abroad. This mean that I will not be able to continue this timeline with the same rhythm. If I’m lucky i will post 2-3 update during this summer, otherwise I will resume the story in October. I will still be here for any questions or for other interesting threads in this forum but unfortunately I won’t have much time, during these months, to dedicate to the writing of the next updates. However I hope you enjoy this one.

 

[Nagisaki]

Nowaday Serbia.

Err... Serbia was part of Moesia. Dacia is in Romania.

Or if you mean the other Dacia established later, that's mostly in Bulgaria, not Serbia.

 

[RyuDrago]

Well, then see you when you can, take all the necessary time!

For the East which solved the Isaurian threat as OTL, the Goths may be a problem if Theodoricus would reclaim the ones of Moesia under his guidance... But on the other side, he may realize if he would attempt to stir things, he would have to face both the armies of the West and the East.

But, as Theodoricus OTL was respectful of Imperial authority (the Eastern one at least), there is no reason to doubt he would not respect Nepos and the Western Emperor's instead. If else... Being federated with two Emperors could provide him great opportunities and riches if he would move well, as ruler of the Danubian limes.

 

[Atamolos]

Err... Serbia was part of Moesia. Dacia is in Romania.

Or if you mean the other Dacia established later, that's mostly in Bulgaria, not Serbia.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dacia_Aureliana

 

[Flavius Iulius Nepos]

Err... Serbia was part of Moesia. Dacia is in Romania.

Or if you mean the other Dacia established later, that's mostly in Bulgaria, not Serbia.

I'm referring to the Diocesi of Dacia, not the province (that one is in Bulgaria).

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dacia_Aureliana

Exactly what I meant!

Well, then see you when you can, take all the necessary time!

For the East which solved the Isaurian threat as OTL, the Goths may be a problem if Theodoricus would reclaim the ones of Moesia under his guidance... But on the other side, he may realize if he would attempt to stir things, he would have to face both the armies of the West and the East.

But, as Theodoricus OTL was respectful of Imperial authority (the Eastern one at least), there is no reason to doubt he would not respect Nepos and the Western Emperor's instead. If else... Being federated with two Emperors could provide him great opportunities and riches if he would move well, as ruler of the Danubian limes.

I know it s not good for the timeline to leave it inactive for some months, but at least I will plenty of time to think about how to develop it. Also I will exploit the opportunity to read some more books about the period (particularly the incoming VI century). Maybe I could find something really useful.
Anyway returning to the Goths, I don't think the empire would gladly accept the leadership of Theodoricus Amalus over both Goths. That is the reason why Zeno tried to separate them. Finally the Thracian Goths will have precise role in the next century so I can't allow them to join the Pannonian Goths.

 

[Some Bloke]

What's happening in Britain?

 

[Flavius Iulius Nepos]

What's happening in Britain?

So far the events in Britain are following the same path as OTL ( at the moment what is happening in Italy won’t radically change the history of the isle). Local Romans are still trying to defend themselves from the Germanic population from the east and the Picts from the north. There should still be a significant Roman presence in Britain (even after almost one century from the “official” withdrawal) but the invaders are going to absorb ( I don t think they really slaughtered everyone they encountered) the locals. Concerning this aspect, the timeline will focus on the event around the Mediterranean (so no update about China or India) but when necessary (or if requested) I could write a small summary about the events in Persia, Britain or other regions close to the Mediterranean and relevant to the destiny of the empire.

 

[Flavius Iulius Nepos]

Chapter XXI

After almost 4 years of war, military operations in the north were coming to an end. After the previous defeats (and successive minor skirmishes) the Gepids had finally resorted to peace, sending envoys to the emperor. Meanwhile the lombards proved to be a more difficult opponent. Still on the losing side, they were occasionally able to win minor battle against the goths and the Romans, thus slowing down Roman efforts to bring peace to Pannonia. But despite their resistance, the Pannonian provinces were destined to the Goths and no matter what, their superior strength would grant them the prize of this war. However the last moments of the war would be fought without much support from the Roman. In 493 Nepos had decided that it was finally time to return to Italy, his presence no longer required. With him he would bring some units of the Italian and Illyrian armies, until that moment under the command of Laurentius, thus reducing the military support to Theodoricus. Before departing however, he would arrange the organisation of the reconquered territory (despite the fact that the war was not entirely over). Military speaking, Roman involvement would be minimal, given that local defence and military duties were assigned to entirely gothic units loyal to Theodoricus. However as Theodoricus was acting as magister militum per Pannonia, he would reinstate the old office of Dux Valeria ripensis, entrusted to a Goths of his choice. Administratively speaking the Romans were allowed a greater degree of intervention in local matters, as provincial governors were appointed by the emperor for the administration of the four Pannonia. Nevertheless these governors would have to deal with the omnipresence of the gothic leader,who as king of the ostrogoths was wary of any Roman intromission, therefore subjecting these governors to the magister militum of Pannonia instead of the local Vicarius. An anomalous situation, but required, due to the specific conditions under which happened the reconquest there. These governors, among many duties, were responsible for the new land redistribution, in order to make room for the new arrived. The recent depopulation of the region (consequence of more than 50 years of devastation and lack of central authority) would help the process somewhat, but surely it would provoke resentment among the locals. An exception would be represented by the province of Pannonia secunda, as the Romans showed renewed interest for the region and the city of Sirmium. The southern part of the province would be controlled by a Roman governor directly subjected to Salona, with the addition of a Dux Pannonia secunda, while the northern part of the province would be aggregated to the gothic ruled Pannonia Valeria. Surely the situation was not really stable and further changes would take place here in the future, however with the recent campaign the Romans managed to get once again under their direct control part of Pannonia and inner Dalmatia.

Some rest was now totally deserved, yet the emperor refused to stay idle. Constantly working and trying to improve the conditions of his empire, no aspect of his office was neglected. This time his focus was directed to the Italian army. Taking inspiration from the eastern situation and the advice of the member of his m court, Nepos decided to further decrease the power of the magister militum in Italy with the creation of a second army. The bulk of this army would be constituted by those units that came with the emperor from Pannonia, while some of the regiments under the command of Syagrius would be transferred to this second army and his new commander, Gaudentius. The main reason for this change was the fear that the magister militum praesentalis held to much power, with which he could threaten the emperor. Another minor reason was the jealousy and envy that some members of the imperial court held toward Syagrius. If they were given the opportunity, this man of non italic origin would be already dead but the benevolence of the emperor and the support of some of the key members of the imperial administration (among them the Praefectus Praetorio Marcellinus Liberius) allowed him to survive in what still was the most dangerous political arena of the Mediterranean world.

While the emperor was in Verona, busy with the aforementioned changes and local matters, news reached him from the kingdom of the burgunds about the death of his ally, king Chilpericus II, leaving the kingdom in the hand of his two brothers and the western borders of the empire now potentially threatened, should the kingdom be united by Gundobad. Events were taking an interesting path in the West and now Rome was finally ready to take an active role after many years of passivity and weakness

 

[Flavius Iulius Nepos]

Chapter XXII

In 494 AD several important events took place. In Pannonia the Lombard, after their last defeat, finally and officially gave up against the empire. Like other populations, they were forced to leave the lands south of the Danube. Instead they would receive a simbolic tribute from the emperor, in order to keep peace in the region. Other smaller tribes were instead absorbed by the empire, or more specifically by the pannonian goths, now the hegemonic barbarian power in the region. More important events however, took place in Italy. After spending the last months of 493 in northern Italy, Nepos finally returned to Rome during the summer of the new year. Here celebrations were arranged by the recently appointed Praefectus Urbis Apollinaris ( Sidonius Apollinaris’ son) to celebrate the recent victories of the emperor, partly paid by Apollinaris himself in order to show his gratitude for the received honour of the prefecture and earn further imperial favour. However one more reason justified these celebration: the ventennalia of Iulius Nepos. Officially western Roman emperor since 474, Nepos was one of the few Roman to enjoy a very long reign in the West, a real achievement since the last emperor that ruled for so long was Valentianus III. During these days the population of Rome had the opportunity to enjoy games and banquets while the civil and military officers of the empire received small donations of money and other goods that commemorated the emperor, his reign, his family and the peace he brought back to Italy. Similar celebrations were held in other cities of the empire, albeit to a lesser degree.

During the following months and years the emperor continued to take care of the empire and the needs of its citizens. After receiving a petition from the inhabitants of the city of Neapolis, he decided to grant them a partial tax exemption for the next four years, in order to allow them to recover from the devastations brought by the vandals some years ago. More important were the measures he applied to the whole empire, taking inspiration from similar decisions of his eastern colleague. Thanks to his economic reforms, the stability he brought to Italy and the positive administration of Caecina Mavortius and now Marcellinus Liberius, the imperial treasury could now count on a respectable surplus of money. Instead of embarking in big and potentially risky adventures, or spending big sums for new monuments or churches (but still supporting the restoration of already existing buildings and infrastructures), the emperor proceeded to implement three new measures. The first one he took regarded a small tax reduction for certain categories of workers (like the merchants) in the cities of the empire. A similar conversion of tax payed in nature to tax payed in money was not yet completely imposed on the farmers of the empire (like it happened in the east), yet as a second measure the emperor increased the proportion of money that would be payed to the soldiers thus slightly reducing the payment in goods, therefore improving the economic condition of the soldiers (albeit not every single regiment was affected by this change) and the willingness of the people to serve in the army. Finally he regulated the custom of the cities and their aristocracy to pay for precious gift to the imperial treasury upon the acclamation of a new emperor. Not an imposed duty, local aristocracy however felt the need to pay for such gift in order to gain the imperial favour (or avoid the enmity of the new emperor) or to avoid to be outshined by rival cities ( famous was the rivalry that for instance existed between Lugdunum in Vienne). A large boon to the treasury of the new emperor however, it tended to represent a problem in the long run, as occasionally these cities were subsequently unable to respect their economic obligations toward the emperor, after spending so much for these gift, forcing him to directly intervene in local economic matters. Therefore he proceeded to limit such custom, ordering that only certain cities, with a strong presence of curiales (at least 200 men) were now allowed ( but not forced) to pay such homage to the new emperor. Probably reducing the amount of money that a new emperor could quickly gather after his accession to the throne, Nepos however contributed to further stabilise the economic situation of the cities of the empire and that of their most important representatives. The western empire was far from being that economic and military power it was at beginning of the century, but certainly it was now ready to enter the new one with the intention and the strength necessary to reverse the trend that occurred during the V century.

 

[RyuDrago]

Twenty years of reign are quite an achievement for a Roman Emperor in general and the fact the celebrations went smoothly and we can say "adeguate" is a clear signal Italia is definitely recovering economically and socially. It would be interesting to see when the West will surpass the East in terms of general wealth - surely much will depend by how the ERE will defend herself from Persians and Arabs and also by internal religious crisis.

So, the Lombards did their swan song, and this would mean new flaps of butterflies across Italy, of course. Certain cities of the north will shine less and others in different ways, and the few ones which should have to rise yet will never be or likely in a different way. Also Italian as language is definitely mostly aborted - at least we can have a Latin more barbarized in certain parts than other but that's it. Which it may be interesting on a certain thing - the citizens of the Empire would understand much better a mass in Latin. And this is an element not to underestimate in the future. But after all is a world where the Roman Church will have to play a total different game than OTL...

It would be interesting to see soon the situation in Iberia and Gallia, as we remained to the stall between Franks and Romans over Syagrius...

 

[Flavius Iulius Nepos]

Twenty years of reign are quite an achievement for a Roman Emperor in general and the fact the celebrations went smoothly and we can say "adeguate" is a clear signal Italia is definitely recovering economically and socially. It would be interesting to see when the West will surpass the East in terms of general wealth - surely much will depend by how the ERE will defend herself from Persians and Arabs and also by internal religious crisis.

So, the Lombards did their swan song, and this would mean new flaps of butterflies across Italy, of course. Certain cities of the north will shine less and others in different ways, and the few ones which should have to rise yet will never be or likely in a different way. Also Italian as language is definitely mostly aborted - at least we can have a Latin more barbarized in certain parts than other but that's it. Which it may be interesting on a certain thing - the citizens of the Empire would understand much better a mass in Latin. And this is an element not to underestimate in the future. But after all is a world where the Roman Church will have to play a total different game than OTL...

It would be interesting to see soon the situation in Iberia and Gallia, as we remained to the stall between Franks and Romans over Syagrius...

Clearly a sign of recovery, but not that now Rome can steamroll the western barbarian kingdoms. Without active support from the east the western Roman emperor will remain in the same league as the barbarian kings. This makes things interesting as we observe the wre attempts to recover the lost ground and the same power held by Constantinople. About the ere, it will be difficult to measure its effective power, compared to the West, after an alternate arab invasion, but I think that they would just stay as strong as the West instead of being overcame.

Pannonia is currently safe but we must remember that is now up to the goths the responsibility of the defence of the Danubian limes, so I wouldn’t exclude a brief comeback here (or new problems). As you said the most important butterflies will however be in Italy. Without the gothic war and its aftermath we just butterflied the fate of several Italian cities (just think about Mediolanum,Ticinum or maybe even Venice) and if interested I could dedicate some moments to the history of these cities in the future.

Speaking about the Latin language, just think about the possibility of having a divided European continent with the Latin language as a unifying factor instead of all the neo-Latin language and the gradual adoption of Greek as official language in the east.
We will obviously have to deal with the political and religious consequences of this course of events in the future.

Finally I understand that you are eager to see more about the international stage, so soon (maybe the next update) I will deal with the situation in Gaul and some events that some of you already know or expect.

 

[Ultima Ratio]

If Rome manages told hold Italy, they're good. Just focus on remaining stable and grab any low hanging fruit that appears due to barbarian infighting. Key is to be stronger than them once Vikings, Arabs and Magyars come to the neighborhood.

 

[RyuDrago]

Clearly a sign of recovery, but not that now Rome can steamroll the western barbarian kingdoms. Without active support from the east the western Roman emperor will remain in the same league as the barbarian kings. This makes things interesting as we observe the wre attempts to recover the lost ground and the same power held by Constantinople. About the ere, it will be difficult to measure its effective power, compared to the West, after an alternate arab invasion, but I think that they would just stay as strong as the West instead of being overcame.

Pannonia is currently safe but we must remember that is now up to the goths the responsibility of the defence of the Danubian limes, so I wouldn’t exclude a brief comeback here (or new problems). As you said the most important butterflies will however be in Italy. Without the gothic war and its aftermath we just butterflied the fate of several Italian cities (just think about Mediolanum,Ticinum or maybe even Venice) and if interested I could dedicate some moments to the history of these cities in the future.

Speaking about the Latin language, just think about the possibility of having a divided European continent with the Latin language as a unifying factor instead of all the neo-Latin language and the gradual adoption of Greek as official language in the east.
We will obviously have to deal with the political and religious consequences of this course of events in the future.

Finally I understand that you are eager to see more about the international stage, so soon (maybe the next update) I will deal with the situation in Gaul and some events that some of you already know or expect.

Well, a bit more than above - not in terms of military strength, sure, but for prestige and legitimacy and religious matters (albeit the Franks didn't convert yet and the Visigoths are the champions of Western Arianism at the moment) the Empire would look far better in the eyes the Frank, the Vandal, the Burgundians and the Visigothic realms. Is a mere statement of fact - those four realms took Imperial lands and have Roman subjects and are surrounded by Roman culture. The Roman-Barbarian kingdoms would always have an inferiority complex towards the WRE, and a WRE which stabililized its Northern and Eastern fronts.

But this may drive those realms, in becoming better, more civilized, more assertive to Roman traditions and laws. They may still strenght themselves as the Empire could after all.

I don't deny my thought over comparisons of power came out over the entire Byzantine history, which burned out her supremacy over Italy to then see periods of swings till 1204. And at the point, the ERE's wealth was decisively surpassed by the Italian one. Only, Italy was a patchwork at the time, while early Paleologic ERE was still a "Megali Hellas". Here, we have an united Western Imperial Italy, being essentially the WRE, and a ERE still intact but more open to strifes and internal weakness. Here is maybe the heart of the consideration. The WRE is strong (more exact balanced) internally but unable to project a true external power, the WRE is weaker internally and powerful on her external projection. And in the long term internal stability would always prevail in the preservation of a country...

Pannonia would be for centuries the underbelly of the empire - any people coming East would try to enter from there to reach Italy. Is the only viable access after all. I noticed in the last chapters how Rome and Theodoric attempted to strenght their power against each other, but I can concede that for now a compromise was reached Pannonia is likely able to become "Gothia" or "Ostrogothia" or the Ostrogoths to become "Pannonians" in the long term. I just wonder if we will see a Dux or a Rex of Pannonia in the end... Much depending of the degree of autonomy Pannonia will get from Rome in the end. Or maybe none at all...

Mediolanum is set to stay the main city of the North, and an important bishopric because a basilica of Saint Ambrose will rise anyway. If else the underground sociocultural competition between Mediolanum and Rome would emerge in other forms.

Ticinum would remain a lesser city, maybe may get in a certain point a bishop but is unlikely would get the glory of Pavia.

Venice... Well is probable a town of "Rialtum" will emerge anyway (the island was certainly habitated by almost 50 years) but there are too many competitors (Aquileia, Forum Iulii, Heraclea) which would survive albeit still on the teethering Italic border. For a "Venice" to rise two ways IMO could be viable 1) as OTL, Aquileia and the surroundings are plundered so badly many would escape in the Lagoon. 2) The Empire would see in the Lagoon a great harbour and naval fort and a trade hub with Germania and Central Europe but A) Salona may face some economic difficulties B) Ravenna became interred C) an Emperor must desire this development.

About the language, I was thinking more over a evolutionary process like it happened with Greek; some grammar changes with the time, but modern and ancient forms were more or less the same. Besides, OTL speak Latin is considered different from the moment today we forgot if the Romans pronounced or not a dipthong. (Most notable example they said Caesar or Cesar?). Right now we are still in a phase where Latin and Barbarian languages are definitely separed; the fact how a Neo Latin language will rise or not will depend from the direction of this TL. So is all up on the air right now.

And I can't wait for those new updates!