WI: Edward VI Tudor lives longer

[GauchoBadger]

So, assume that king Edward VI of England, legitimate male child of Henry VIII by Jane Seymour, recovers from his illness in 1553 and goes on to reign for, say, around 40 more years.
What are the effects on...
-Religion in Great Britain? Had Mary never ascended to the throne, could Protestantism gain earlier prominence?
-The Tudor dynasty?
-The Italian War of 1551-1559? If Edward stays neutral or even pro-French, it could be a great relief for Henry II -- Perhaps the war ends in overall French victory, with Calais still in English hands, more of the Southern Netherlands going to the French, Savoy being absorbed, Naples also possibly under Valois control, and Genoa weakened? And perhaps Henry II's death is also avoided, preventing the French Wars of Religion? That'd release a massive jar of butterflies.
-The upcoming Dutch Revolt? If the Dutch are still successful ITTL and still offer a crown to an available Protestant king, will Edward consider it?
-Colonialism? Which colonies would be most likely to be desired by Edward's regime?

 

[Jonathan]

So, assume that king Edward VI of England, legitimate male child of Henry VIII by Jane Seymour, recovers from his illness in 1553 and goes on to reign for, say, around 40 more years.
What are the effects on...
-Religion in Great Britain? Had Mary never ascended to the throne, could Protestantism gain earlier prominence?

It would still only be England as Scotland was still its own independent kingdom. But Protestantism will raise to great prominence very early, without Mary burning them at the stake, however I don't believe Edward was inclined to rid England of Catholics. As for Mary, I could imagine, Edward marrying her off to a Catholic nation to keep them allies, either Spain, France, Portugal or HRE. As for Elizabeth, a marriage with a northern protestant king such as Sweden or Norway would benefit their trade.

-The Tudor dynasty?

If Edward marries a strong healthy woman, can't see why his lineage shouldn't continue.

-The Italian War of 1551-1559? If Edward stays neutral or even pro-French, it could be a great relief for Henry II -- Perhaps the war ends in overall French victory, with Calais still in English hands, more of the Southern Netherlands going to the French, Savoy being absorbed, Naples also possibly under Valois control, and Genoa weakened? And perhaps Henry II's death is also avoided, preventing the French Wars of Religion? That'd release a massive jar of butterflies.

Edward would be better to keep it neutral, forging an alliance France, also means allying with the Ottoman Empire which will annoy the Pope and catholic nations even more, meaning an early Armada? Where as allying with Spain will just be like OTL losing Calais.
Although a secret trade agreement and mercenaries to France could be achievable.

-The upcoming Dutch Revolt? If the Dutch are still successful ITTL and still offer a crown to an available Protestant king, will Edward consider it?

William the Silent as the main leader of the Dutch revolt and seen as "the father of the fatherland" seems best to rule the Dutch Republic, what is interesting though is that up until 1551 he is still unmarried, so maybe marrying him off to Elizabeth is the key.

-Colonialism? Which colonies would be most likely to be desired by Edward's regime?

Land in America is still possible although not named "Virginia," names could be:
- Edwardia, Edward Town (after him)
- New Hampton (after his birth palace)
- Seymourshire (after his mother)
- Named after his wife or daughter.
- New England
- New Cumbria (Great Lake county for the Great Lakes of America)

 

[TruthfulPanda]

Edward was born in 1537 - the earliest he would be making and enforcing decisions is 1553 ... if not 1555.
Anything earlier - that's the regent(s).
True that the change versus OTL would be in Mary not being on the throne 1553-55.

 

[GauchoBadger]

Edward was born in 1537 - the earliest he would be making and enforcing decisions is 1553 ... if not 1555.
Anything earlier - that's the regent(s).
True that the change versus OTL would be in Mary not being on the throne 1553-55.

When Mary overthrew Jane Grey, there was a change in government alongside her. This new government, being Catholic, ended up joining the 1551-1559 Italian War on the side of the Habsburgs.
Had Edward lived longer, the regency government would be likely to at least stay neutral in such a war. I don't think Edward and his government would fully join the French side because of Scotland and Henry II's persecution of Protestants, true, but i think England's neutrality or possible pragmatic pro-Paris stance would aid the French.

 

[TruthfulPanda]

Had Edward lived longer, the regency government would be likely to at least stay neutral in such a war. I don't think Edward and his government would fully join the French side because of Scotland and Henry II's persecution of Protestants, true, but i think England's neutrality would aid the French.

Full agreement. Maybe some day I will write an "Edward lives on/SI" TL for the ASB board ...

 

[Historyman 14]

Besides greater Protestantism, Edward would marry off Mary to a Catholic King, or Prince, France most likely to help his plans and his father's plans of trying to get into a alliance with the Freach, while Elizabeth gets married off to a Swedish king or princeling.

With that, he be busy with creating a Tudor dynasty, and with his betrothed to Elizabeth of Valois after the 1550 Treaty of Boulogne, and if he sends Mary to France, we can have very close Anglo-French ties.

However, if Elizabeth of Valois is off the table for whatever reason, his best choices would be Jane Grey, Mary Stuart, or the Swedish princess Catherine Vasa.

 

[TruthfulPanda]

IIRC Mary was born in 1513 - when Edward starts to call the shots she'd be in cougar territory - any top tier takers?

 

[JonasResende]

IIRC Mary was born in 1513 - when Edward starts to call the shots she'd be in cougar territory - any top tier takers?

1516
And besides Karl V, probably not top tier. Would be far easier for Edward to just ignore her (matrimonially speaking). As long as he's in the way, she ain't being queen of nothing. So, she either a) ends her life as a spinster (something only the Habsburgs would object to, but not really do much about); or b) get married off abroad to a lower level prince (second or third son of a Protestant power who's not too picky and let's her keep her religion), which Mary would probably object to. Letting her marry in England is dangerous. So it's either a wedding abroad or no wedding at all

 

[Historyman 14]

IIRC Mary was born in 1513 - when Edward starts to call the shots she'd be in cougar territory - any top tier takers?

1516
And besides Karl V, probably not top tier. Would be far easier for Edward to just ignore her (matrimonially speaking). As long as he's in the way, she ain't being queen of nothing. So, she either a) ends her life as a spinster (something only the Habsburgs would object to, but not really do much about); or b) get married off abroad to a lower level prince (second or third son of a Protestant power who's not too picky and let's her keep her religion), which Mary would probably object to. Letting her marry in England is dangerous. So it's either a wedding abroad or no wedding at all

Pretty much. It be far better to have her outside of England. (Far, far away from England, and any damage she might try.) As for any marriage (Again, far away from England.) Albert V, Duke of Bavaria might be a good pick for her.

Going back to Elizabeth, I still say it be a Swedish Prince, or a Danish King, or William the Silent as people mention. Frederick II of Denmark comes to mind if you go with Denmark-Norway. Or Eric XIV of Sweden if you go for Sweden.

As for the Huguenots, we can have Henry II allowing them to migrate to the New World. (Which would be all sort of fun.)

 

[Sevarics]

Land in America is still possible although not named "Virginia," names could be:
- Edwardia, Edward Town (after him)
- New Hampton (after his birth palace)
- Seymourshire (after his mother)
- Named after his wife or daughter.
- New England
- New Cumbria (Great Lake county for the Great Lakes of America)

Kingsland?

 

[JonasResende]

Elizabeth is NOT wedding Willem the Silent. He wed his Dutch first wife in 1551 in order to get her lands IIRC. She died in 1558. He married his second wife for her money in 1561.

If he marries Liz in 1551 (unlikely, as the regents were still looking at a brother to the duc de Guise, Alfonso II d'Este or Francesco I de Medici) he forfeits the lands Anna van Egmont (Countess of Burenand Lady of Egmond. She was also Countess of Lingen and of Leerdam, and Lady of IJsselstein, of Borssele, of Grave, of Cranendonck, of Jaarsveld, of Kortgene, of Sint Maartensdijk, and of Odijk.). And lets someone else snatch them from under him. If he marries her in 1561 he forfeits the money he got from Anna of Saxony's dowry IIRC

 

[isabella]

Elizabeth is NOT wedding Willem the Silent. He wed his Dutch first wife in 1551 in order to get her lands IIRC. She died in 1558. He married his second wife for her money in 1561.

If he marries Liz in 1551 (unlikely, as the regents were still looking at a brother to the duc de Guise, Alfonso II d'Este or Francesco I de Medici) he forfeits the lands Anna van Egmont (Countess of Burenand Lady of Egmond. She was also Countess of Lingen and of Leerdam, and Lady of IJsselstein, of Borssele, of Grave, of Cranendonck, of Jaarsveld, of Kortgene, of Sint Maartensdijk, and of Odijk.). And lets someone else snatch them from under him. If he marries her in 1561 he forfeits the money he got from Anna of Saxony's dowry IIRC

Well maybe Anna of Saxony is not avalaible for William (the future Erik XIV of Sweden, who was his father's heir, asked her hand in 1556. Maybe here his father and Anna's relatives are fine with that wedding) or William renounced to marry her because Anna'a mathernal grandfather, Philip of Hesse, was against the wedding (OTL he was persuaded to consenting, but his objections delayed the wedding of a full year.). Maybe here he will be more succesful and persuade Anna's uncle Maurice of Saxony to refute her hand to the price of Orange because she can marry better elsewhere

 

[JonasResende]

Or maybe Ned and Wim do a bride swap- Anna of Saxony as queen of England and Elizabeth as princess of Orange?

 

[isabella]

Or maybe Ned and Wim do a bride swap- Anna of Saxony as queen of England and Elizabeth as princess of Orange?

Edward will marry either Elisabeth of France or Mary of Scotland (if he can force France to consign her). If he will go "crazy" can marry either Jane or Katherine Grey or Margaret Clifford (if they are still unmarried) but the list end here.
Oh, and Mary Tudor will remain in England, guarded and unmarried while Elizabeth will be married off to some protestant prince and ally of Edward

Anna in Sweden and Elizabeth as princess of Orange can work

 

[Jonathan]

Kingsland?

I can understand it as a masculine version of Queensland, so it could work.

 

[ByzantineLover]

Edward will marry either Elisabeth of France or Mary of Scotland (if he can force France to consign her). If he will go "crazy" can marry either Jane or Katherine Grey or Margaret Clifford (if they are still unmarried) but the list end here.
Oh, and Mary Tudor will remain in England, guarded and unmarried while Elizabeth will be married off to some protestant prince and ally of Edward

Anna in Sweden and Elizabeth as princess of Orange can work

The only way I can see Edward even getting his hands on Mary of Scotland is if Henry II and Francis II still die on schedule and he manages to capture Mary. Some people have said that Mary might marry Edward under such circumstances, but I can't find anything that says she wasn't a devout Catholic. If Henry II survives or avoids his jousting accident but Francis II still dies, I could see him keeping Mary in France to marry her off to Charles.

As for Elisabeth of Valois, and France as a whole, whether or not it's Henry II, Charles IX of Catherine de Medici in charge, I find it hard to believe that they would tolerate Calais remaining in English hands, which is why I think a French alliance under Edward is unsustainable.

For Edward, I could see him marrying any of the following:

* Mary of Scotland (if she does prove religiously pragmatic/flexible)
* Anna of Saxony (for her dowry)
* Cecilia of Sweden (if Edward was similar to his father, he might prefer beauty over age, and Cecilia was said to be the most beautiful of Gustav's daughters)
* Barbara of Hesse (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Barbara_of_Hesse), for her father's reputation as a champion of Protestantism. I'm not too knowledgable of the relationship between Lutherans and Calvinists was at the time.)
* Lucrezia d'Este ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lucrezia_d'Este_(1535–1598) ). Admittedly, this one is slightly out there, but the (potential) Protestant links are there, and she wasn't married until 1570.
* Elisabeth of the Palatinate (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Countess_Palatine_Elisabeth_of_Simmern-Sponheim)

Also, this may be before the POD, but I've also heard rumours that a marriage might have been negotiated between Edward and Joanna of Austria at some point. Was there any truth in that?

 

[isabella]

The only way I can see Edward even getting his hands on Mary of Scotland is if Henry II and Francis II still die on schedule and he manages to capture Mary. Some people have said that Mary might marry Edward under such circumstances, but I can't find anything that says she wasn't a devout Catholic. If Henry II survives or avoids his jousting accident but Francis II still dies, I could see him keeping Mary in France to marry her off to Charles.

As for Elisabeth of Valois, and France as a whole, whether or not it's Henry II, Charles IX of Catherine de Medici in charge, I find it hard to believe that they would tolerate Calais remaining in English hands, which is why I think a French alliance under Edward is unsustainable.

For Edward, I could see him marrying any of the following:

* Mary of Scotland (if she does prove religiously pragmatic/flexible)
* Anna of Saxony (for her dowry)
* Cecilia of Sweden (if Edward was similar to his father, he might prefer beauty over age, and Cecilia was said to be the most beautiful of Gustav's daughters)
* Barbara of Hesse (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Barbara_of_Hesse), for her father's reputation as a champion of Protestantism. I'm not too knowledgable of the relationship between Lutherans and Calvinists was at the time.)
* Lucrezia d'Este ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lucrezia_d'Este_(1535–1598) ). Admittedly, this one is slightly out there, but the (potential) Protestant links are there, and she wasn't married until 1570.
* Elisabeth of the Palatinate (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Countess_Palatine_Elisabeth_of_Simmern-Sponheim)

Also, this may be before the POD, but I've also heard rumours that a marriage might have been negotiated between Edward and Joanna of Austria at some point. Was there any truth in that?

Treaties of peace often were settled with marriages and a war can also end in a stalemate... If France lost big they can be forced to hand Mary Stuart over to Edward VI, bethrotal to the Dauphin or less and unless a big defeat like the OTL one under Mary I England will continue to keep Calais....

Joanna was a likely a wish of Henry VIII or maybe an insincere suggestion by Charles V. Henry VIII tried to force Scotland to accept a bethrotal between Mary and Edward and then to capture the youn queen (who OTL was sent in France at the court of her father-in-law-to-be exactly for that reason) and you know who was the only woman to which Edward VI was ever really engaged during his life? Elisabeth of Valois in 1551 and the offer likely came from Henry II in 1550 (and the total disagreement of the Pope was unable to stop the engagement) and they were still engaged at his death...

So taking OTL as base the favourites candidates as bride of Edward VI are:
1) Mary, Queen of Scotland (if they can get/capture her)
2) Elisabeth of France, his OTL's fiancèe
3) a protestant princess like Cecilia of Sweden, Barbara of Hesse, Anna of Saxony, Elisabeth of Palatinate (I would say also a Danish princess but they have not one avalaible as the two daughters of Christian III were one too old and the other too young for Edward)

 

[ByzantineLover]

Treaties of peace often were settled with marriages and a war can also end in a stalemate... If France lost big they can be forced to hand Mary Stuart over to Edward VI, bethrotal to the Dauphin or less and unless a big defeat like the OTL one under Mary I England will continue to keep Calais....

Joanna was a likely a wish of Henry VIII or maybe an insincere suggestion by Charles V. Henry VIII tried to force Scotland to accept a bethrotal between Mary and Edward and then to capture the youn queen (who OTL was sent in France at the court of her father-in-law-to-be exactly for that reason) and you know who was the only woman to which Edward VI was ever really engaged during his life? Elisabeth of Valois in 1551 and the offer likely came from Henry II in 1550 (and the total disagreement of the Pope was unable to stop the engagement) and they were still engaged at his death...

So taking OTL as base the favourites candidates as bride of Edward VI are:
1) Mary, Queen of Scotland (if they can get/capture her)
2) Elisabeth of France, his OTL's fiancèe
3) a protestant princess like Cecilia of Sweden, Barbara of Hesse, Anna of Saxony, Elisabeth of Palatinate (I would say also a Danish princess but they have not one avalaible as the two daughters of Christian III were one too old and the other too young for Edward)

Thanks for clearing up that bit about Joanna of Austria.

I still feel as though the Valois would try to take Calais at some point, whether Edward gives them an excuse or not.

Well, Dorothea of Denmark was only a year younger than Elisabeth of Valois.

 

[isabella]

Thanks for clearing up that bit about Joanna of Austria.

I still feel as though the Valois would try to take Calais at some point, whether Edward gives them an excuse or not.

Well, Dorothea of Denmark was only a year younger than Elisabeth of Valois.

True both of them but Elisabeth of Valois is a much more prestigious bride and the eventual conflict about Calais and still Scotland can end in any way: a French victory, a stalemate, an English win, maybe one so big who Henry II will be forced ho hand Mary of Scotland to the english if the war end before her wedding or after Francis's death. In any of the first three cases the treaty of peace will likely include the wedding of Edward and Elisabeth if that has not already happened

 

[ByzantineLover]

True both of them but Elisabeth of Valois is a much more prestigious bride and the eventual conflict about Calais and still Scotland can end in any way: a French victory, a stalemate, an English win, maybe one so big who Henry II will be forced ho hand Mary of Scotland to the english if the war end before her wedding or after Francis's death. In any of the first three cases the treaty of peace will likely include the wedding of Edward and Elisabeth if that has not already happened

I personally see two scenarios:

1. Henry II survives or avoids his jousting accident. The Dauphin dies in schedule, and Henry, not wanting to lose Scotland, betroths Mary to Charles. The marriage between Edward and Elisabeth goes ahead as planned.

2. Both Henry II and Francis II die as IOTL. Mary leaves for Scotland as IOTL, but ends up captured by Edward who, seeing an opportunity to finish what his father started, tries to persuade Mary to marry him. If successful, Mary wanting to ensure her hereditary rights to both Scotland and England, Edward thenbreaks off his betrothal to Elisabeth, thus giving the Valois an excuse to attack Calais.