Alternate Electoral Maps II

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Why the doubts about Idaho and Virginia?
On second thought, Louisiana is the only state where it looks like he lost the white vote, since I believe you used John Bel Edward's 2014 victory map, where I'm quite sure he lost the white vote pretty decisively. South Carolina is also a possibility due to racial polarization.
 
My first map on here, just a map I feel like would capture the best Trump could realistically do without winning the popular vote. Just giving him Minnesota and New Hampshire. Nothing too big. If he won the popular vote by just a hair, add in Nevada and Maine, if he wins by a big margin, I would give him Colorado and Virginia and if he somehow managed to get a majority (50.1% or higher) I would give him Oregon and New Mexico as well

genusmap.php
You have to take into account elasticity as well as margin. For instance, I think New Mexico may be more likely to vote for Trump than Virginia, because it's more elastic and doesn't have anything really comparable to NoVA. I also could see Maine-AL flipping before New Hampshire, but don't get me wrong, I'm not saying New Hampshire is a solid blue state or anything. Just looking at the trends, Maine trended rapidly Republican in 2016 while New Hampshire was more stable.
 
You have to take into account elasticity as well as margin. For instance, I think New Mexico may be more likely to vote for Trump than Virginia, because it's more elastic and doesn't have anything really comparable to NoVA. I also could see Maine-AL flipping before New Hampshire, but don't get me wrong, I'm not saying New Hampshire is a solid blue state or anything. Just looking at the trends, Maine trended rapidly Republican in 2016 while New Hampshire was more stable.

Looking at recent history, you are right about Maine and Hew Hampshire, can't believe I never saw that. Maine used to be a 10+ point stronghold for the democrats, and then they won it by like 2 points in 2016. New Hampshire has always been in single digits after 1992, meaning that even in landslides, it was still more competitive.
 
On second thought, Louisiana is the only state where it looks like he lost the white vote, since I believe you used John Bel Edward's 2014 victory map, where I'm quite sure he lost the white vote pretty decisively. South Carolina is also a possibility due to racial polarization.
Yes, I used Bel Edwards's victory map from 2015. He lost the white vote to David Vitter 60-40%, and that is about how it would go here. So Louisiana would be one state. For South Carolina, I used Jimmy Carter's victory map from 1976. If you look closely, Greenville County votes Republican (and is the most populous county in the state), along with Lexington and Aiken Counties; Richland County gives ~50ish percent of its vote to Rutherford; and Charleston County is carried by him with a plurality. I'm not sure how the white vote went in 1976, but Carter won South Carolina by 13 points that year.

Given how demographics have changed since then, it's possible that Leach wins the white vote (though that is ambiguous too since most of the state's rural counties go Democratic here). There are several other states that I think are in doubt as well, or should be considered. For Georgia, I used Zell Miller's map from 2000, and on US Election Atlas, it was determined that he won the white vote that year, the last time a Democrat has done so. The maps for Tennessee, North Carolina, and Arkansas are from 1964, and Johnson almost certainly won the white vote in those states.

Florida is ambiguous; I used Lawton Chiles's map from 1990, and he won by 13 points that year, carrying most of Florida's counties bar Duval County, Marion County, Lake County, Brevard County, Collier County, Sarasota County, Lee County, Charlotte County, Clay County, Martin County, Escambia County, Okaloosa County, and several others in the Northeast and along the Gulf Coast. Bill Nelson won by 12 points in 2012 in his most recent victory, but lost whites to Connie Mack IV 52-47%. So, it's possible that Leach wins Florida whites as well, especially given the counties that he wins or breaks 40% in. Oklahoma would be a definite Democratic victory among whites, given the very strong percentages earned in the rural counties, and the carriage of Oklahoma and Canadian Counties.

So, of these run of states, the ones that I can think of where Leach wins or probably wins whites are Mississippi, Alabama, Louisiana, and (possibly), South Carolina and Florida. But as I asked you above, what about Virginia and Idaho makes you think that whites would go Republican?
 
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An idea that I've come up with is the recreation of all of Scotland's old regional councils and devolve parts of Holyrood's powers to them. Such powers could be business rates, economic development, education, fire services, health, income tax, justice, local government, social security, stamp duty and transport. As a model, I've been working on Grampian.
This map shows how many seats there are for each ward - Light Green means single member whilst Orange means double member.
Grampian RC wards.png


And looking at the results for last year's local elections in Aberdeen, Aberdeenshire and Moray, this is my maps showing the election result for my thing in Grampian.

Grampian RCE '17.png


And this is what the make up of the council looks like
Grampian RC composition.png


And the seat total

Conservatives 32
SNP 11
Lib Dems 3
Labour 3
Independents 2
 
This came to me in a dream. What could cause this map?
View attachment 400026

The green is possibly environment friendly conservative populist, or Michael Bloomberg.


The democrat is obviously fairly left wing, maybe they are a minority or big environmentalist

The republican is obviously very moderate.

Most likely to me it’d be a very moderate republican, if not slightly liberal, and the democrat is a big time environmentalist. The other is a populist, charismatic type who plays very well with rural and rust belt type voters who is also friendly towards the environment, perhaps pushed that way by the democrat.

So the republican could be someone like Kasich or Pataki
The democrat could be maybe a very green minded Gore
The independent maybe Scott Taylor? Santorum? Hickenlooper? Bloomberg? It’s the hardest the pin down, but I’d go with Bloomberg if I had to say somebody
 
Yes, I used Bel Edwards's victory map from 2015. He lost the white vote to David Vitter 60-40%, and that is about how it would go here. So Louisiana would be one state. For South Carolina, I used Jimmy Carter's victory map from 1976. If you look closely, Greenville County votes Republican (and is the most populous county in the state), along with Lexington and Aiken Counties; Richland County gives ~50ish percent of its vote to Rutherford; and Charleston County is carried by him with a plurality. I'm not sure how the white vote went in 1976, but Carter won South Carolina by 13 points that year.

Given how demographics have changed since then, it's possible that Leach wins the white vote (though that is ambiguous too since most of the state's rural counties go Democratic here). There are several other states that I think are in doubt as well, or should be considered. For Georgia, I used Zell Miller's map from 2000, and on US Election Atlas, it was determined that he won the white vote that year, the last time a Democrat has done so. The maps for Tennessee, North Carolina, and Arkansas are from 1964, and Johnson almost certainly won the white vote in those states.

Florida is ambiguous; I used Lawton Chiles's map from 1990, and he won by 13 points that year, carrying most of Florida's counties bar Duval County, Marion County, Lake County, Brevard County, Collier County, Sarasota County, Lee County, Charlotte County, Clay County, Martin County, Escambia County, Okaloosa County, and several others in the Northeast and along the Gulf Coast. Bill Nelson won by 12 points in 2012 in his most recent victory, but lost whites to Connie Mack IV 52-47%. So, it's possible that Leach wins Florida whites as well, especially given the counties that he wins or breaks 40% in. Oklahoma would be a definite Democratic victory among whites, given the very strong percentages earned in the rural counties, and the carriage of Oklahoma and Canadian Counties.

So, of these run of states, the ones that I can think of where Leach wins or probably wins whites are Mississippi, Alabama, Louisiana, and (possibly), South Carolina and Florida. But as I asked you above, what about Virginia and Idaho makes you think that whites would go Republican?
I don't think whites go Republican in Virginia with that map, on second thought.

I was thinking that Idaho might since it looks very close but it's probably too white for a Democrat to win it with that county map and not win the white vote. as for South Carolina, I don't have any real data but I recall another poster on the Atlas forum posting a map of the estimated white vote by state in 1976 and Ford won it in South Carolina, but it was definitely close given Carter's strong performance in the more white rural counties and his overall 13% margin of victory statewide.I'd say whites definitely went Democratic in Florida but again I don't have access to data so I can't be sure 100%.
 
I see. So it's probably just Mississippi, Alabama, Louisiana, and South Carolina, with the last being extremely close. The white vote in Idaho, as well as possibly Florida and Virginia, would be close as well, but Rutherford would carry it in those states. One other state that comes to mind is Arizona, which Rutherford wins here by about 8%. He loses Maricopa County by ~3-4 pts. (about as much as Hillary Clinton lost it by), but wins Pinal County, along with most of the rural counties except for Graham, Yavapai, and Mohave. Is it possible that Leach wins whites there? Besides that, I think he loses it in every other non-former Confederate state for sure, as well as in Texas.
 
I see. So it's probably just Mississippi, Alabama, Louisiana, and South Carolina, with the last being extremely close. The white vote in Idaho, as well as possibly Florida and Virginia, would be close as well, but Rutherford would carry it in those states. One other state that comes to mind is Arizona, which Rutherford wins here by about 8%. He loses Maricopa County by ~3-4 pts. (about as much as Hillary Clinton lost it by), but wins Pinal County, along with most of the rural counties except for Graham, Yavapai, and Mohave. Is it possible that Leach wins whites there? Besides that, I think he loses it in every other non-former Confederate state for sure, as well as in Texas.
Yeah, I'm fairly certain whites go Democratic in Arizona here.
 
LBJ wins an even bigger landslide in 1964:


genusmap.php


DMWJhjj.jpg


Lyndon B. Johnson (D-TX)/Hubert Humphrey (D-MN) 521 electoral votes, 71.05% popular vote
Barry Goldwater (R-AZ)/William Miller (R-NY) 27 electoral votes, 28.47% popular vote
 
LBJ wins an even bigger landslide in 1964:


genusmap.php


DMWJhjj.jpg


Lyndon B. Johnson (D-TX)/Hubert Humphrey (D-MN) 521 electoral votes, 71.05% popular vote
Barry Goldwater (R-AZ)/William Miller (R-NY) 27 electoral votes, 28.47% popular vote
This is the opposite of the scenario that you posted a few weeks ago. Here, you've added 10% to Johnson's totals, and subtracted 10% from Goldwater's. What is fascinating is that Johnson was leading by roughly this margin throughout much of the actual campaign, but many Republican voters ended up coming home for Goldwater, which is why the election turned out as it did. If Johnson had actually won in this manner, he would have had even more political capital with which to push his Great Society forward, and might have been more emboldened to propose more expansive programs (such as a move to universal healthcare, which had already been suggested as early as Harry Truman's Presidency).
 
And still Goldwater carries every county in Mississippi.

I was originally considering adding 20% to Johnson so that he wins every state except for Mississippi, but I thought that would kinda be overkill. that's also the swing that would be required for him to win some counties in MS.

You mean that Arizona whites go for Rutherford?

Yes, I believe they would based on the county results.


This is the opposite of the scenario that you posted a few weeks ago. Here, you've added 10% to Johnson's totals, and subtracted 10% from Goldwater's. What is fascinating is that Johnson was leading by roughly this margin throughout much of the actual campaign, but many Republican voters ended up coming home for Goldwater, which is why the election turned out as it did. If Johnson had actually won in this manner, he would have had even more political capital with which to push his Great Society forward, and might have been more emboldened to propose more expansive programs (such as a move to universal healthcare, which had already been suggested as early as Harry Truman's Presidency).

It's also fascinating to think about what effect this much larger landslide would have on the 1968 Presidential Election. perhaps Humphrey would've won.
 
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