I'm currently working on some much later ethnographic-centered ATLs(mostly due to climatographic consequences), however I've learnt a lot particularly from trying to make the Dtage, a Proto-Yeniseian ethnic group(related closest to the Jie) I've mapped moving west during an alternate Migration Period to around the mouth of the Volga and in the Aral-Caspian Depression.
I hadn't thought much about the fate of the Yeniseians, but if I can get my hands on a decent reconstruction of Proto-Yeniseian with enough roots to construct names for people, places, and institutions in the timeline (I shouldn't need more than 1,000 roots) then I think that it could be very interesting to play with them ITTL.
The PoD you've picked for this is, in my opinion, excellent for fascinating speculation. If Proto-PIE(PPIE??) peoples are going to be moving east to Qinghai and south to the Middle East, they'll probably severely impact genetics and environmental factors as well. If they're travelling through or assimilating into the Caucasus region much, they may pick up some of the originally domesticated grape varieties up to a thousand years early. Although the minutia of agricultural potential is pretty unimportant upon a macro-scale, it could mean a combination of the Sumerian beermaking cake method and Georgian amber-colored wines, strangely enough.
If or how these PPIE descendants reach East Asia, they'll probably pass though the Central Asian Steppe regions on their way. If they do this sometime before 2000BCE, they would definitely come into contact with the Botai peoples or some kind of relatives. Heck, some say that the PIE migrations founded the Botai culture; they have been theorized to be something else entirely, neither Proto-Uralic nor Proto-Indo-European. Either way, they are the first evidence of domesticated Botai-style horses- the ancestors to Pzewalski's Horses and bred specifically for meat and milk to support larger communities. If you allow these peoples to take the Botai horses(a separate slightly earlier domestication event to other modern Equus horses) with them, then you could easily see these horses becoming a major domestic animal in hill or steppe regions around Eurasia, kick-starting lactose tolerance in the Himalayan foothills and Euarasian steppes. All while, most ironically, Western Europe remains without any dairy-producing domesticates on any large scale. It would primarily remain at the time as a forested landscape, assuming the non-Indo-European presence creates later adoption of Beaker Culture style copper and bronze use. A later Western European Copper Age potentially delays or prevents the massive European deforestation and overhunting efforts focused around 1500-1000BCE in turn.
I also hadn't thought much about this Sumerian beer-making cake method you mention. I've heard it mentioned, but I didn't realize that it was going to be a source of interest for anyone. I suppose since the purpose of this thread is to brainstorm, nothing is definitively set in stone for the timeline as of yet, so I shouldn't be shy about sharing my ideas here. Now, I had thought a great deal about Indo-Europeans picking up on the agricultural practices of the Caucasus, as I have been entertaining the idea of an early branch breaking off and heading south, absorbing the Maykop Culture and further moving into the Kur River Valley (modern Azerbaijan). From here, the expansion would continue along the southern coast of the Caspian and also onto the Iranian Plateau, which would absorb and displace Mannaean, Kassite (probably related to Hurro-Urartians), and Gutian-speaking tribes that would migrate into Mesopotamia during the early 3rd millennium. In this situation, I thought that the Sumerian city-states might play the different groups off of each other (Mannaeans, Gutians, Kassites, and Semites) to expand their own power, perhaps with a single city-state rising as the hegemon via the use of its non-Sumerian allies to some degree. I wanted to expel the Semites from Mesopotamia entirely during this period (sort of the way the Aryans were expelled from the Iranian Plateau ITTL) and drive them into the Levant at a time when clear boundaries between East and West Semitic had not yet been drawn, so that I can play with the evolution of Semitic languages and cultures to a degree during the Bronze Age.
Now, to my knowledge, according to the blog I shared, which according to my research is a good summary of the current status of the field of Indo-European studies, the period in question is the period of Common Indo-European, or what gets called "Proto-Indo-European" for people who don't understand the distinctions between say, Indo-Hittite, Graeco-Aryan, Northwest Indo-European, etc. So, the tribes migrating into Azerbaijan and eventually Iran and Mesopotamia are speakers of Common Indo-European, i.e. Indo-European after the development of contrasts in voice (it seems that at the time Anatolian broke off, the stop series was voiceless and contrasted for gemination) and aspiration. The Botai Culture, by this time, is already being affected by the immigration of the Indo-European-speaking Afanasevo Culture, and will only continue to be so as another branch of Indo-European migrates around the top of the Caspian Sea, only to break off into separate northern, eastern, and southern branches. I imagine that whatever language the Botai peoples spoke, it was the language that forms such a heavy substratum in Tocharian as to have loaned the majority of the nominal inflection, as much of that doesn't seem to be derived from Indo-European proper. That could still happen ITTL, but the Afanasevo Culture will be reinforced by a new wave of Indo-European-speaking migrants, so the substratum influence might not be AS drastic as it was IOTL. An increase of Indo-European migration into Central Asia however could definitely see an increase in lactose tolerance as well as the importance of horses during the period, as you suggest, though. But, when you talk about Western Europe, weren't sheep and goats already common by this time, and weren't they also being milked? I would be interested in your references there, cuz if dairy production came with Indo-Europeans, then Europe might not be well-known for its cheeses, which could have some interesting effects down the line.
Also, considering that it would seem that the Corded Ware peoples were not that into sedentary agriculture prior to the advent of Indo-Europeans, it might be the case that much of Europe remains in the hunter-gatherer (with some supplementary herding) stage for awhile longer, especially after the collapse of "Old Europe" (which is a subject I meant to do more reading about today). If that is the case, then it might also be the case that Europe is more linguistically diverse for a longer period of time, or at least that the form of Finno-Ugric that is adopted in Europe is rather different than what we know today, with a lot more substratum influence. It might also be the case that a mixed language between Finno-Ugric and some other "Old European" language develops and becomes the
lingua franca of a new civilization, which would make things a lot easier for me, personally. The slowed technological development in Europe could give rise to the expansion of other groups as well. I had this idea of a Semitic thalassocracy of sorts developing in the Bronze Age out of Ugarit that would colonize places like Cyprus, Crete, Sicily, and the east coast of Iberia, but one that speaks something closer to Amorite, and not West Semitic.
know this is mostly technological, environmental and sociological semantics, but it's effectively what information I can think of without delving into levels of precise worldbuilding, no doubt up to others to decide. I do, however, fancy the idea that in the Middle East early Sumerian breadmaking- originating from beer yeast cakes- could become a centralized social repository for grain and alcohol distribution and later a communal neighborhood food outlet in general. A combination communal kitchen, food bank, storehouse and pub, if you will. It might emerge as a result of larger city administration, lack of space for individual kitchens, emergence of food processing as a necessary activity beyond gruel making, or simply from a harsh famine/drought causing societal change in Mesopotamia or the Levant. Just an interesting idea that came to me.
I apologize for any hard reading, overly long sentences, rambling trains of thought or unhelpful information given that I may have suffered from.
Well, we can go into some much more precise details, if you'd like
So, as far as the Sumerians are concerned, I would like them to enjoy a somewhat extended tenure in Mesopotamia by pitting the ethnically diverse northern portion against itself for awhile. I honestly am very surprised and intrigued at your fascination with this beer-making cake thing, though. Feel free to expound on the idea, and don't worry about using technological, environmental, and sociological semantics. You're in good company for it