WI: Daschle ran in 2004?

[Vidal]

In Yes We (Still) Can, Dan Pfeiffer indicates Daschle was far closer to running for president in 2004 than I had previously believed. Apparently, it was sort of like a Bill Clinton 1988 situation where he had everything ready, but just never hit 'go.' I didn't realize it had gotten that far.

What if Daschle had run in 2004? Could he have won the Democratic nomination? How would that have happened/what was his path? Could he then have beaten Bush? Who would've been his running mate? What would a Daschle presidency have looked like, even though 2004 is almost surely a poisoned chalice for nearly everyone who could've won?

 

[raharris1973]

I do not see him possessing any special advantage that let's him win.

 

[Sasalele]

I do not see him possessing any special advantage that let's him win.

Exactly he's just "eh" he's too boring and uncharismatic to make a difference.

 

[raharris1973]

I've heard somebody argue that post-9/11 fear and clinging to the strong guy (who signals this by calling his enemy weak, in addition to actual action), even as consummate a politician as Bill Clinton might not have been able to win.

 

[Vidal]

I've heard somebody argue that post-9/11 fear and clinging to the strong guy (who signals this by calling his enemy weak, in addition to actual action), even as consummate a politician as Bill Clinton might not have been able to win.

Sure, but at the same time, the 2004 election was decided by 100,000 votes in Ohio. I'm not sure I buy that.

 

[True Grit]

I suspect he keeps Kerry out of the race (or at least eats up most of his support, since they'd likely be appealing to the same base), and maybe results in a few less senators launching primary bids. If he wins Iowa, a state it was expected he'd do well in (given the advantage of representing neighboring South Dakota), he probably becomes the frontrunner.

 

[Corjomc]

I've heard somebody argue that post-9/11 fear and clinging to the strong guy (who signals this by calling his enemy weak, in addition to actual action), even as consummate a politician as Bill Clinton might not have been able to win.

Seems about right. I remember the ads with wolves in them reminding people to be afraid.

 

[Colonel Zoidberg]

Daschle couldn’t even get re-elected to the Senate in 2004. How the shit does someone that lame get elected President? Elmer Fudd would have a better shot at unseating Bush.

Besides, the problem with 2004 was that the number one issue was “moral values” and those voters almost exclusively voted Bush. And for those who say “well if Kerry won Ohio” bear in mind there was a statewide marriage amendment on the ballot that year in Ohio and all the “values voters” ended up in that vortex. Getting that off the ballot is next to impossible.

And given how shorty the economy was in 2004, do the Democrats really want that one back or would they be happier letting the GOP swallow that poison pill?

 

[creighton]

Daschle couldn’t even get re-elected to the Senate in 2004. How the shit does someone that lame get elected President? Elmer Fudd would have a better shot at unseating Bush.

Besides, the problem with 2004 was that the number one issue was “moral values” and those voters almost exclusively voted Bush. And for those who say “well if Kerry won Ohio” bear in mind there was a statewide marriage amendment on the ballot that year in Ohio and all the “values voters” ended up in that vortex. Getting that off the ballot is next to impossible.

And given how shorty the economy was in 2004, do the Democrats really want that one back or would they be happier letting the GOP swallow that poison pill?

Because South Dakota is R+14? If anything, being able to beat your state's partisan lean by 13 points would show that Daschle would fare better than Kerry. He couldn't be swift-boated and none of the parasailing ads, or flip flopping. John Kerry came off as a Northeastern Liberal, which wasn't good at all with suburban 'security moms' that got so covered in the 2004 cycle and swung decisively toward Bush. And even with the marriage amendment on the ballot in Ohio, the basic math of the state showed that a slight uptick in Democratic turnout, or a slight depressing of Republican turnout swings the state. Daschle's proximity to Minnesota and Iowa help him there as well, so fewer resources need to go into MN and Iowa's electoral votes could be in play. I don't really buy the lameness thing, no one really looks like a President-- until they are. Carter had no shot in hell, Reagan was too extreme, Bush was a wimp, Clinton was too undisciplined, was kind of the knock on those Presidents until they got in. No one really seems like a President until they become a President and gain the aura that comes with the office and people get used to seeing them as President.

In regard to the poison pill, yes it was nice in hindsight, but none of us knew that in 2004, the economy expanded 4ish percent in 2005--so that loss felt downright brutal. The cracks in economic growth didn't start showing until after the 2006 midterms, which were mainly about Iraq and Katrina.

I'm not saying Daschle would win, but the Bush people only circled Howard Dean as the candidate they'd cruise over that year.

 

[raharris1973]

Because South Dakota is R+14? If anything, being able to beat your state's partisan lean by 13 points would show that Daschle would fare better than Kerry. He couldn't be swift-boated and none of the parasailing ads, or flip flopping. John Kerry came off as a Northeastern Liberal, which wasn't good at all with suburban 'security moms' that got so covered in the 2004 cycle and swung decisively toward Bush. And even with the marriage amendment on the ballot in Ohio, the basic math of the state showed that a slight uptick in Democratic turnout, or a slight depressing of Republican turnout swings the state. Daschle's proximity to Minnesota and Iowa help him there as well, so fewer resources need to go into MN and Iowa's electoral votes could be in play. I don't really buy the lameness thing, no one really looks like a President-- until they are. Carter had no shot in hell, Reagan was too extreme, Bush was a wimp, Clinton was too undisciplined, was kind of the knock on those Presidents until they got in. No one really seems like a President until they become a President and gain the aura that comes with the office and people get used to seeing them as President.

In regard to the poison pill, yes it was nice in hindsight, but none of us knew that in 2004, the economy expanded 4ish percent in 2005--so that loss felt downright brutal. The cracks in economic growth didn't start showing until after the 2006 midterms, which were mainly about Iraq and Katrina.

I'm not saying Daschle would win, but the Bush people only circled Howard Dean as the candidate they'd cruise over that year.

Daschle’s voice was too soft and he was a little too thin for security moms.

Kerry’s getting Swift boated was a crack that went back to his political foundation. Running as an anti war vet , which is how he even got started, could work in the liberal northeast, but the simple fact of him protesting made a large enough share of vets nationwide hate him enough they would believe anything negative about him.