AHC: 'Darkest' 21st century that doesn't involve Nazi victory or global nuclear war

The USSR indeed believes that the "Able Archer" excercise is just a pretext for a NATO-WP war. During the heightened tensions something goes very wrong and actual bullets start flying. Nuclear War ensues.

OP states no global nuclear war.
 

Anchises

Banned
There were some releases of Soviet bioweapons OTL, which were fortunately of such a nature that they did not spread. Assume that they create a "hybrid" of an Ebola type of hemorrhagic virus that is mixed with Influenza. The result is a disease with an extremely high case fatality rate of >75% without intensive medical care, and ~50% with that care, plus the ease of transmission of influenza via airborne and surface routes instead of via contact directly with infected fluids. Throw in the work is not complete and they have not yet gotten immunization perfected yet. This gets out, begins to spread and given the Soviet propensity for secrecy, by the time the world realizes what has happened it has escaped the USSR - think an infected person travels from the area before quarantined, spreads it on the way back to Moscow, once there spreads further and some international travelers get it. Make this in the 1980s and with jet travel it is almost everywhere within a few days. By the time the Soviets confess, and maybe share data to try and get immunization developed things are out of control. In places without a very robust medical system, the case fatality rate is 75%. Case fatality can drop to 50% where you have good medical systems, however since this spreads like the flu the numbers soon overwhelm the medical system. Early on, you see a significant number of medical folks from first responders to doctors getting sick before the mechanism is understood.

Attempts at strict quarantine vary from place to place, and soon result in uninfected areas shooting refugees who try to enter, even from one town to another. Attempts to create a "cordon sanitaire" along international borders create massive kill zones. As large numbers of folks get sick/die, the threads that hold a modern civilization together fray and break. All cities depend on a steady stream of food to keep fed - when food distribution breaks down due to quarantines, reduced numbers of truck drivers etc this falls apart, and of course nobody wants to go out on the street to go to shops. what happens when workers in power plants are sick/dead, or unwilling to come to work - or those operating the water system. On a somewhat longer term basis will crops be planted/tended/harvested enough to feed survivors.

Over and above the deaths from plague, you'll see increasing numbers of death from violence or starvation. As the various systems begin to fail, you'll see emergence of other diseases due to lack of clean water, sewage/sanitation, deaths from lack of medicines and/or medical personnel that would not happen before. Of course, folks dependent on things like insulin, anti-HIV drugs, etc will all go. When the dust settles you will have a huge death toll, by 3-5 years after the first case somewhere like 50-75% of the world population gone. Depending on the "non-disease" chaos it could be worse if some folks sling a few nukes. Nations break up, and you have a return to warlordism. Some area develop doomsday cults which become extremely antiscience and slip back further (see "A Canticle for Liebowitz"), other areas perhaps not.

Unless the disease finds an animal host, like Ebola which hangs out in other primates, it will eventually burnout. If it does find intermediates, it will return in waves, although likely less severe as humanity and the disease come to an accommodation.

This requires no "chain of events", just one POD and not even that much of a big one as the USSR was working on making superdiseases, and their isolation techniques were often slipshod.

Even if the B-Weapon is (somewhat) contained to the SU effects could be horrible. No amount of medical care is going to save the Gerontocrats if they are infected.

There could easily be a grave leadership crisis.
 
The Bosheviks win the 1920 Polish-Soviet War, communism spreads to Germany and France, a bloody war destroys the British Empire, and the US becomes the last "beacon of freedom"
 

samcster94

Banned
What's your take on this?

I think a pretty bad outcome would be the USSR occupying more of Europe after WW2, and the western world being much more militaristic and standoffish than in OTL, with European countries waging widespread colonial wars against Marxist-Leninist independence movements.

Have Mao suffer an early death not long after Stalin, have Stalin succeeded by a hardliner, and we could see a delayed Sino-Soviet split, which would surely extend the Cold War into the 21st century.
China run as a mega North Korea, that is chilling.
 
What if D-Day fails and the Allies eventually use the A-bomb to force Germany to surrender, and the Soviets sweep across more of Western Europe since they have an Eastern foothold and the Allies are still stuck across the English Channel? Could we have seen all of Germany as well as perhaps Italy, Austria, France, and the Scandinavian and Benelux countries in a similar position as the Eastern European Warsaw Pact nations, i.e. Soviet client states under locally-based Communist dictators?

I suspect that in this scenario, the Cold War persists for a longer period of time and perhaps the Soviets and/or Communism in general make more gains elsewhere, since the U.S. and Britain would be facing a larger population and military force on the other side. Maybe Korea is left to fall, for example, because the cost of intervening is seen as too high.
 
Not neccesarily a plausible TL, but a Fascist Britain could lead to some nightmares.

Presuming Mosley is consistent and doesn't join the wars in Europe, the world could be interesting in the Chinese sense.

Hypothetically, the world could be something of a 3 bloc cold war.
I think the Soviets beating the Germans is inevitable, but the war would be much more awful and probably last a lot longer. I could see Italy surviving if Nukes come about/depending on how war exhausted the soviets are.
Africa would have to deal with a more brutal late colonialism. The Italian fascists and a more internal focused British empire is going to be awful, particularly as Britain would have a lot more resources at their disposal and the Mosleyite idea of having something of an Autarky in the British Empire.

India's fight for independence would also be super horrific.
 

samcster94

Banned
Not neccesarily a plausible TL, but a Fascist Britain could lead to some nightmares.

Presuming Mosley is consistent and doesn't join the wars in Europe, the world could be interesting in the Chinese sense.

Hypothetically, the world could be something of a 3 bloc cold war.
I think the Soviets beating the Germans is inevitable, but the war would be much more awful and probably last a lot longer. I could see Italy surviving if Nukes come about/depending on how war exhausted the soviets are.
Africa would have to deal with a more brutal late colonialism. The Italian fascists and a more internal focused British empire is going to be awful, particularly as Britain would have a lot more resources at their disposal and the Mosleyite idea of having something of an Autarky in the British Empire.

India's fight for independence would also be super horrific.
Hundreds of millions dead in a conflict that makes Syria look simple.
 
"Though the Heavens Fall"

Mile-wide asteroid 1938 Hermes strikes United States in October 1937 (during Orson Welles panic broadcast). Ohio gone. U.S. won't be the arsenal of democracy for some time.

Impending impact winter provokes Germany and Japan to grab as much territory as possible, as fast as possible. With U.S. injured on sidelines, brutal Alt-WWII will drag on until late 1950s, when climate returns to normal.

No U.S. or British Manhattan project; Fermi, Szilard and Wigner all end up fleeing east, ending up in the secret+closed city of Stalinatomgrad.
 
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Redbeard

Banned
Ban
Where the hell did this come from?

You're damned near a Plank-holder here, if anyone should know that this sort of outright bigotry toward a group is unacceptable it is you.

I can't believe I'm typing this -

Kicked for a week.


Well, I actually mean exactly what I wrote and I still do.


It is your board and your rules, but if that involves tabooing what I see as one of the most important agendas in the part of the world where I live, I of course can’t contribute to this board any longer – and the 14 years so far obviously were way too many.


And no, this hasn’t anything to do with race, racism or hate speech, but about realizing the single most important factor in the disastrously lacking integration of immigrants in the past 3-4 decades. That doesn’t make Muslims any worse or better humans than everybody else, but it also doesn’t change that the cultural implications of practicing most ways of Islam also means significant barriers to being integrated in a society like mine. Usually you would expect such problems to dampen over time, but inside a lot of individual variations that hasn’t been the case with most Muslim immigrants and we now have outright parallel societies where getting an education and a job doesn’t seem to help – often on the contrary.

That isn’t a big problem with small and constant minorities, but when the immigration policy if unchanged threatens to change that into a major problem you of course have to address it precisely. Not just for the sake of the receiving end but also to stop the tragedy where millions in vain seek milk and honey in the streets of Europe and thousands each year drown in the Mediterranean.

I’m actually not so worried any longer, because it over here isn’t as tabooed as earlier, but I have also seen how much worse it is where the taboos have been strongest.

Goodbye - I will take my debates back to the real world!
 

CalBear

Moderator
Donor
Monthly Donor
Well, I actually mean exactly what I wrote and I still do.


It is your board and your rules, but if that involves tabooing what I see as one of the most important agendas in the part of the world where I live, I of course can’t contribute to this board any longer – and the 14 years so far obviously were way too many.


And no, this hasn’t anything to do with race, racism or hate speech, but about realizing the single most important factor in the disastrously lacking integration of immigrants in the past 3-4 decades. That doesn’t make Muslims any worse or better humans than everybody else, but it also doesn’t change that the cultural implications of practicing most ways of Islam also means significant barriers to being integrated in a society like mine. Usually you would expect such problems to dampen over time, but inside a lot of individual variations that hasn’t been the case with most Muslim immigrants and we now have outright parallel societies where getting an education and a job doesn’t seem to help – often on the contrary.

That isn’t a big problem with small and constant minorities, but when the immigration policy if unchanged threatens to change that into a major problem you of course have to address it precisely. Not just for the sake of the receiving end but also to stop the tragedy where millions in vain seek milk and honey in the streets of Europe and thousands each year drown in the Mediterranean.

I’m actually not so worried any longer, because it over here isn’t as tabooed as earlier, but I have also seen how much worse it is where the taboos have been strongest.

Goodbye - I will take my debates back to the real world!
This honestly saddens me on several levels. I have long seen you as a valued contributor here. You have been here from the beginning, longer than I've been here. It shouldn't have come to this.

I know you will likely simply ditch the e-mail when you get it, but I am compelled to respond to your comments just in case you do look at it.

As an American I have lived my entire life in what is a mixed society. That mixture has, and continues to be, fraught with bigotry and prejudice with every wave of immigrants. Catholics, Jews, Italians, Germans, Freemen Blacks, Chinese, Japanese, Vietnamese, Indians (Asian), you name it. After a few decades all of these groups become a part of the general culture, even as gradually reducing minorities of the "established" population retained their bigotry. Bigotry is, sadly, one of those human vices that is seemingly impossible to truly stamp out, it always manages to find a new target to despise. This doesn't mean it is acceptable.

The addition of new cultures is often painful, usual more for the immigrant community than the established, but the result is far better, more vibrant society.

Your argument about Muslims has been used in the United States for literally centuries, going back before there was an United States. As a life long student of American history I can recall the signs "No Irish need apply", "membership restricted", "immigrants from Southern Europe aren't welcome here" "no Chinamen allowed", "Manzanar", "Separate but equal", and far too many more. American has adapted and folding in all of the groups, despite the continuing presence of some unrepentant bigots. We've had Irish American Presidents, Black Presidents, Italian and Jews candidates for vice President and President. It isn't perfect, it never will be. As the once despised join the mainstream some of them display bigotry toward the next immigrant group. Ignorance is never in short supply.

Your position was used in Europe for well over 1,000 years towards Jews and Roma until the Reich took the idea to its extreme, after which it mainly lost popularity, particularly towards Jews. Once could take your statement about Muslims, replace the subject with Jews or Roma, and not have to change a word from any progrom or justification for the Holocaust.

However, you have made your position clear. So be it. I just wish you have chosen an indefinite fishing trip rather than suicide by Mod.

We divorce you.

To Coventry with you.
 
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This honestly saddens me on several levels. I have long seen you as a valued contributor here. You have been here from the beginning, longer than I've been here. It shouldn't have come to this.

I know you will likely simply ditch the e-mail when you get it, but I am compelled to respond to your comments just in case you do look at it.

As an American I have lived my entire life in what is a mixed society. That mixture has, and continues to be, fraught with bigotry and prejudice with every wave of immigrants. Catholics, Jews, Italians, Germans, Freemen Blacks, Chinese, Japanese, Vietnamese, Indians (Asian), you name it. After a few decades all of these groups become a part of the general culture, even as gradually reducing minorities of the "established" population retained their bigotry. Bigotry is, sadly, one of those human vices that is seemingly impossible to truly stamp out, it always manages to find a new target to despise. This doesn't mean it is acceptable.

The addition of new cultures is often painful, usual more for the immigrant community than the established, but the result is far better, more vibrant society.

Your argument about Muslims has been used in the United States for literally centuries, going back before there was an United States. As a life long student of American history I can recall the signs "No Irish need apply", "membership restricted", "immigrants from Southern Europe aren't welcome here" "no Chinamen allowed", "Manzanar", "Separate but equal", and far too many more. American has adapted and folding in all of the groups, despite the continuing presence of some unrepentant bigots. We've had Irish American Presidents, Black Presidents, Italian and Jews candidates for vice President and President. It isn't perfect, it never will be. As the once despised join the mainstream some of them display bigotry toward the next immigrant group. Ignorance is never in short supply.

Your position was used in Europe for well over 1,000 years towards Jews and Roma until the Reich took the idea to its extreme, after which it mainly lost popularity, particularly towards Jews. Once could take your statement about Muslims, replace the subject with Jews or Roma, and not have to change a word from any progrom or justification for the Holocaust.

However, you have made your position clear. So be it. I just wish you have chosen an indefinite fishing trip rather than suicide by Mod.

We divorce you.

To Coventry with you.

All respect to you CalBear, but your arguments won't convince a single non-American here who hold such views. Most of all because people are aware of American history of immigration, but what you ignore is that we have our own history of immigration, which are far more relevant in how Europeans (in this case) see immigration. How a Polish person see immigration won't ever be based on American immigration history, unless it's forced down their throat (and in that case they won't react positive), it will be based on the immigrations of Germans to Poland (something which continued until 1914 even in Russian Poland).

In the same manner for a lot of us, the Holocaust are pretty irrelevant in how we see minorities, because it wasn't something we pushed and it was even something we objected to and worked against. Just because we're "White people" (the idea of White people as a collective identity pretty much indicate a way to see the world we don't share) doesn't mean we have some kind of collective guilt for whatever our neighbours did.

How people see immigration are based on their own history, and pretty much every European country have their own history of being a emigration target from which they have learnt their own lessons. For Western Europe it was pretty much only a short periode from 1914-1950 where it saw limited immigration (and even there was exceptions with some countries), while in eastern Europe the period was longer and lasted until the 2005. As such American history as a emigration target are pretty irrelevant in a European context (outside Russia of course as its share the frontier history with USA).

If you want to convince people of the benefit of Muslim immigration, you need to argue to the cultural context, as the one the people you want to convince live in, not from the one yourself live in and they don't share.
 
Britain, France and the US back up Dutch attempts if not to hold Indonesia then to control the independence process. The East Indies are broken up into ethnic and religious statelets, many ruled by native kings. Also West Irian and maybe some other small enclaves become Dutch/Eurasian hold-outs. Allied support can only go so far and by the 1960s this system will collapse and you have the possibility of intercommunal strife on levels unseen. Pan-Indonesian Nationalists, Communists, Islamists, Minorities, Dutch forces never mind international involvement, covert or otherwise. In terms of bodycount, a prolonged multi-sided Indonesian Civil War could be a definate historic tragedy.
 

CalBear

Moderator
Donor
Monthly Donor
All respect to you CalBear, but your arguments won't convince a single non-American here who hold such views. Most of all because people are aware of American history of immigration, but what you ignore is that we have our own history of immigration, which are far more relevant in how Europeans (in this case) see immigration. How a Polish person see immigration won't ever be based on American immigration history, unless it's forced down their throat (and in that case they won't react positive), it will be based on the immigrations of Germans to Poland (something which continued until 1914 even in Russian Poland).

In the same manner for a lot of us, the Holocaust are pretty irrelevant in how we see minorities, because it wasn't something we pushed and it was even something we objected to and worked against. Just because we're "White people" (the idea of White people as a collective identity pretty much indicate a way to see the world we don't share) doesn't mean we have some kind of collective guilt for whatever our neighbours did.

How people see immigration are based on their own history, and pretty much every European country have their own history of being a emigration target from which they have learnt their own lessons. For Western Europe it was pretty much only a short periode from 1914-1950 where it saw limited immigration (and even there was exceptions with some countries), while in eastern Europe the period was longer and lasted until the 2005. As such American history as a emigration target are pretty irrelevant in a European context (outside Russia of course as its share the frontier history with USA).

If you want to convince people of the benefit of Muslim immigration, you need to argue to the cultural context, as the one the people you want to convince live in, not from the one yourself live in and they don't share.
If I tried to do it from a "European" point of view it would be an utter insult to everyone who IS European.

My point, which I am sort of surprised to hear doesn't translate, is that immigrant communities don't stay isolated or insular UNLESS they are forced into it. I am also amazed that the classic "substitute "A" for "B"" test doesn't make sense.
 
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