Cheng Sao I reforms the Qing Navy
- Thread starter Incanian
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If Cheng Shih wins at the Battle of the Tiger's Mouth, or at least manages to break out of the Humen Strait, then the Red Flag Fleet remains a real and present threat to Qing trade and coastal settlements. If the pressure is kept up, then I argue that Qing would have to sink or swim, as it were; take the fleet seriously and rebuild the navy in a more modern manner, or suffer an increasing breakdown of authority in coastal areas, which would likely lead to revolts and the eventual fall of the empire.
Having an actual and consistent budget for a start, rather than funds being pilfered for things like a stone boat for the palace or something stupid like that. Next thing on the to do list is of course root out at least some of the worst levels of corruption.
Too what levels of modernization could be enacted if they put a ton of funds into a modernization of the navy, and they get rid of the majority of corruption?
Maybe with the the Qing court taking more attention to maritime affairs we could get He Changling's plan of replacing the Grand Canal system with a system of sea convoys, in OTL magnates related to the Grand Canal axed the plan despite its effectiveness, maybe now He has more political support.
This combined with naval investments to combat piracy in the Pearl River delta may lead... to the Qing losing anyway against the British, but now they have a headstart (though the decay of the Grand Canal will lead to a lot of angry unemployed peasants).
This combined with naval investments to combat piracy in the Pearl River delta may lead... to the Qing losing anyway against the British, but now they have a headstart (though the decay of the Grand Canal will lead to a lot of angry unemployed peasants).
"Good", more motivations for also modernizing the army then, if only to crack more heads when need be. Maybe a ripple effect of being able to knock out the Taiping rebellion somewhat faster when they show up.
Well, they'll probably still lose the Opium wars, but the thing is, they might be able too to win if they're effective at modernizing. They have exactly 30 years to begin modernization of the navy. The timeframe could give them a good amount of time. Point is, they'll have a head start, and while the army will probably still be incompetent, a powerful Qing navy is better than our timeline Qings navy.
Depends on how much money the court is willing to spend. A better anti-piracy navy will probably not be a war winner against the RN. OTOH Britain was running such a high deficit from the tea trade that IIRC they offered to sell warships, but no deal. Maybe bc the Qing economy was struggling and they were more worried about internal rebellions.
A good investment might be coastal forts with modern guns. Even those simple but effective Martello towers. IIRC, before the Opium War when British missions inspected Chinese coastal forts they found many guns were fakes and the real ones were old models without traverse for bombarding a fixed spot.
To give you an idea why the Qing lost. If you imagine a military base with soldiers living in barracks doing PT, well they didn’t have a lot of that in South China. Mostly Qing troops were what we’d call weekend warriors. They lived with their familes in platoons and companies quartered in the cities to keep an eye on rebellions. Mostly they get called up to catch brigands. In wartime these internal security units would be assembled into regiment size units for the first time without any experience of joint operations.
A good investment might be coastal forts with modern guns. Even those simple but effective Martello towers. IIRC, before the Opium War when British missions inspected Chinese coastal forts they found many guns were fakes and the real ones were old models without traverse for bombarding a fixed spot.
To give you an idea why the Qing lost. If you imagine a military base with soldiers living in barracks doing PT, well they didn’t have a lot of that in South China. Mostly Qing troops were what we’d call weekend warriors. They lived with their familes in platoons and companies quartered in the cities to keep an eye on rebellions. Mostly they get called up to catch brigands. In wartime these internal security units would be assembled into regiment size units for the first time without any experience of joint operations.
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The Qing had really low tax rates plus an extremely corrupt bureaucracy that embezzled a sizeable share of it, overall GPD China was still the world's largest by the early 1800s, but that doesn't translate into the health of the Qing treasury.
Ugh, I hate math.
Okay using Angus Maddison’s data for 1820:
https://qph.fs.quoracdn.net/main-qimg-e96a48e6d4a7dbac8b2f5a350f39c671-c
UK and China’s population for 1821:
http://www.populstat.info/Europe/unkingdc.htm
http://www.populstat.info/Asia/chinac.htm
I get in 1990 dollars:
UK - 24 billion
China - 213 billion
So 213 billion dollars for the Qing's GDP in 1809. How much of that are the Qing willing to spend on a modernization of the navy? I was thinking 10%.
But how willing are the Qing to modernizing the Navy? Even if they don't get rid of the corrupt officials, what percent is the Qing willing to modernize the Navy?
2 cents and some tea leaves until it's way too late (i.e. their core interests get threatened directly). You need to get rid of at least some of the worst of the corruption as well as streamline the taxation service.
Why would they spend anymore than they did? The only threat they ever saw from the sea were pirates, and the government successfully bought off pirates to deal with other pirates.
So, we get the Qing serious about modernizing their navy. Let's say they strive to get rid of the majority of corruption and make a stricter form of taxation. How much money would they be willing to spend then?
Maybe Cheng Sao destroys the Qing fleet entirely during the Battle of the Tigers Mouth, as well as the Black fleet staying loyal, allowing Cheng too continue piracy, and also fuels more pirates across the Qing to form, forcing the Qing to try to modernize their naval power.
Maybe if they captured and operated European ships with a lot more firepower it might impress the Qing. Especially if they start raiding beyond Canton. As formidable as the pirates were, they were still using familiar local technology, small vessels with small cannons and spearmen.