AHC#1 - Equip a North American Native American tribe or nation with the right stuff.

Beginning 700 AD, locate the right people, the right place, the right resources, the right leader (reasonable likeness), and the right ideas to build up a Native American tribe or nation based north of present-day Panama to survive the European invasion in very good shape and beat the invaders back to an extent that the NA people becomes widely recognized by 1800, at the latest, as the sole legitimate rulers of their territory. I'd like to think even fanboys of the ERE and the Gepidae could have fun with this!
 
I’ve mentioned my interest in this in other discussions, but here goes my first description of the fully fleshed-out idea:

The Washo people of the Northern Sierra Nevada are inspired by contact with the more agricultural Anasazi to the south and begin planting and managing vast Piñon pine orchards in the valleys between Lake Tahoe, Pyramid Lake, Honey Lake and Walker Lake. The cooler, more stable soil in the orchards supports sister crops like wild onions and eventually beans and gourds imported from the south. Since the Piñon is drought resistant the carrying capacity of the area grows and soon the Washo lands are teeming with people. Some turn to fighting and the borders of the Washo empire begin to fluctuating, extending, for example, as far south as Mono Lake before being pushed back. Some of the extra folks turn to craftworks, particularly combining the gold found in various creek beds with turquoise to make elaborate jewelry. Traders were just beginning to carry pine nut meal and turquoise jewelery as far as the northern Mexica people when the European diseases begin to spread. Like everyone around them, the Washo are devastated, but begin to recover by the time the Spanish are establishing missions on the California coast. The mountain range protects them from Spanish invasion, though Plains tribes with horses begin to encroach on the East. Eventually the Spanish encroach too far into the mountains seeking the source of the gold-turquoise jewelry and the Washo unleash hell on the undermanned Spanish trapped in narrow, unfamiliar mountain passes. The Washo leadership recognises the threat the Spanish might someday become and, with the aid of other native people, push the advantage all the way down the Sacramento River to the Presidio, where the Spanish are sieged and eventually run out. By the time Lewis and Clark arrive, the Washo are a known and feared people, having stopped the advance of the Paiutes at the Humboldt sink, just shy of their heartland, and pushed the Spanish out of Northern California, claiming the land for themselves. Contact with the Americans would spark their demise and eventual incorporation into the union as the state of Washo in 1864, but for half a century, the Washo are just as legitimate as any other polity on the continent.
 
Reply to Kevin Lessard
I like your selection, but I am hoping for a number of historically specific details to make the posited scenario "breathe"

1) a ruling house, by name or identification, to express the reality of such a culture, hopefully with identifiable leadership
2) a guiding philosophy or strategic underpinning as a guide to this culture (a la the Ghost Dance cult of Tecumseh ).
3) If the key event is merger or exchange between Washo and Anasazi, then detail the merger (forced unification? Dynastic formation?)
4) Cultural and material specificity. I absolutely LOVE your environmental and economic vision, but warfare methods, technology, and ideology (religion? Basic popular philosophy?) These seem lacking. Were these people (for example) at the point of Spanish contact, expansionist or pacifist, divided, uniited, or what? And how did they fare with the onslaught of European diseases and vices?
 
Beginning 700 AD, locate the right people, the right place, the right resources, the right leader (reasonable likeness), and the right ideas to build up a Native American tribe or nation based north of present-day Panama to survive the European invasion in very good shape and beat the invaders back to an extent that the NA people becomes widely recognized by 1800, at the latest, as the sole legitimate rulers of their territory. I'd like to think even fanboys of the ERE and the Gepidae could have fun with this!
The Mi'kmaq. So long as they avoid the outbreak of 1617 (was was a ridiculously deadly strain that makes the outbreak amongst the Hurons seem mild in comparison) they're probably good to remain dominant over at least the southern third of Nova Scotia, and given their willingness to breed with colonists they'd quickly develop immunity to european diseases and make up what ever population they lose to whatever outbreak they got instead of the OTL one. They had already attained the recognition of the Holy See, they were very adept at adopting European technologies, and even developed their own merchant empire reselling European goods to other tribes. It's as simple as avoiding the virus strain that kills 75% of the population in a single year.
 
Reply to SealTheRealDeal
I like your selection for its policy aspect (intermarriage with whites buys disease resistance. This would be a philosophy requiring some form of organization and leadership) but a POD dependent on what seems like pure luck (avoiding one particular strain of a disease) is not what I'm really hoping for.
 
Eight Deer Jaguar Claw kills his nephew and is therefore not assassinated later by him, and creates a centralized kingdom (rather than a tribute empire) uniting the Mixtec. The Mixtec successfully fight off waves of future invaders including the Aztec, but due to runs of bad luck are not able to expand their kingdom into an empire, creating a fractured Mesoamerica.

When the Spanish invade ITTL, they get a smaller toehold in the mainland with their initial successful incursions, and so the conquest of Mesoamerica is even more piecemeal ITTL. Having previously developed fortified borders to fight off invaders, the Mixtecs are able to hold off the Spanish invasion until the early 17th century, when they make contact with English privateers (perhaps the Spanish still conquered the Panama and the Inca, creating an alternate Manila Galleon trade ITTL)

As a wealthy and centralized kingdom, the Mixtec create a treaty with the English and hand them off gold and spices in exchange for weapons, with which they can keep the Spanish at bay for another two centuries, accepting Native refugees from other nations as long as they are willing to pledge fealty to the Mixtec king. By 1800, the balance of power in Europe has shifted, and the Spanish are focused on governing their existing territory rather than expanding their holdings. Isolated on the Pacific side of the Americas, the Mixtec are a bit too out of the way for another European colonist to fully project power at although soft power-i.e. Protestant missionaries-has converted the Mixtec royal family, and so they are recognized as a legitimate nation by the European powers.
 
I like your selection for its policy aspect (intermarriage with whites buys disease resistance. This would be a philosophy requiring some form of organization and leadership) but a POD dependent on what seems like pure luck (avoiding one particular strain of a disease) is not what I'm really hoping for.
In any victorious First Nations scenario luck is going to be a huge factor, because it doesn't matter how well equipped one's society is if 75% of the population dies off in a single year. Short of somehow developing roman style urban planning and better medicine than any in the old world or the new, they're going to be reliant on dice rolls.

edit: also you do know about the reply feature right?
 
Did the Mixtecs enjoy material advantages over the Aztecs In terms of war doctrine, methods, armaments or morale? AND did they practice human sacrifice in any sort of frequent manner?

I don't know too much about the Mixtecs, though I believe that human sacrifice was almost universal in the Mesoamerican cultural sphere. IOTL they did not have any such advantages, but those could develop ITTL as a butterfly from Eight Deer Jaguar Claws' survival. I don't believe they have a particular terrain advantage though, at least not on the level that the Inca and some Mayans did.
 
Reply to twovultures
Aztec reputation and historical success suggest I should require you to produce a contrafactual application of a noncontrafactual military advantage besides an emphasis on defense before declaring your flag the winner. Also, posit a culturally acceptable Mixtec reason for severely restricting the practice of human sacrifice within their domain. In my view the practice itself makes a British alliance impossible in any century.
 
Aztec reputation and historical success suggest I should require you to produce a contrafactual application of a noncontrafactual military advantage besides an emphasis on defense before declaring your flag the winner.

Well, I don't have any.

Also, posit a culturally acceptable Mixtec reason for severely restricting the practice of human sacrifice within their domain. In my view the practice itself makes a British alliance impossible in any century.
Actually, I can see one culturally acceptable reason-the royal family decides that they want to be the only ones who are able to make sacrifices as a way to demonstrate their power, and forbid lesser nobility governing the other parts of the kingdom from doing human sacrifices. Doesn't end the practice, but does restrict it.
 
Reply to All in AHC#1
Please congratulate the Mixtecs on rising to the challenge of a hostile world in fine fashion.

Please congratulate twovultures on his measured, thoughtful, and substantive role as their Most Excellent Advocate.

(I liked how he dodged the military prowess question. A top-notch civilization never reveals their true strengths or overexplains themselves!)

Thank you for playing.
 
I like your selection, but I am hoping for a number of historically specific details to make the posited scenario "breathe"

1) a ruling house, by name or identification, to express the reality of such a culture, hopefully with identifiable leadership
2) a guiding philosophy or strategic underpinning as a guide to this culture (a la the Ghost Dance cult of Tecumseh ).
3) If the key event is merger or exchange between Washo and Anasazi, then detail the merger (forced unification? Dynastic formation?)
4) Cultural and material specificity. I absolutely LOVE your environmental and economic vision, but warfare methods, technology, and ideology (religion? Basic popular philosophy?) These seem lacking. Were these people (for example) at the point of Spanish contact, expansionist or pacifist, divided, uniited, or what? And how did they fare with the onslaught of European diseases and vices?

Sorry it’s taken me so long to get back to you. I’ve had to give your points some real thought.

Truth be told, not much is known about the Washo other than they were a language (and presumably cultural) isolate that were surrounded and eventually overrun by Uto-aztecan people sometime between the Columbian exchange and sustained contact with Europeans. My POD is more along the lines of knowledge exchange and inspiration from the Anasazi rather than formal relationships/mergers. That is to say I don’t foresee a cultural isolate developing friendly relations with any of their neighbors. The ruling house is a tricky one. I’m sure someone has done the research and traced Washo genealogy and oral history, but I’ve yet to find it. We know Captain Truckee was the chief of the Washo by the Mexican-American war and was a well-respected leader and diplomat. In this TL it would presumably be his father that leads the Washo in their march to the Pacific, with Truckee himself overseeing the Golden decades of the Washo empire. It would be shortly after his death in 1860 that his son, Winnemucca is forced to accept American rule.

Culturally, I’d guess (and it’s only a guess) that three environmental factors would play a big role. First, the Piñon would be the heart of their material culture, with it’s craggy limbs influencing architecture and art and nuts dominating the cuisine (imagine a modern day ‘Washo pizza’ being a pizza with smoked trout and pine nuts as an equivalent to a ‘Hawaiian pizza’ iOTL). Second, the dichotomy of Lake Tahoe in the pristine Sierra Nevada and Pyramid Lake in the barren desert would influence their philosophy, as iOTL those two places had important religious signifigance to the Washo. I could see a really interesting Ditheistic religion developing with the empire having summer and winter capitals and two important temples. Lastly, the mountains and steps would influence battle tactics and tactical thinking in general. A big importance would be placed on holding the high ground, whether in battle or even just in urban planning. They’d be sneak-attackers and dirty dealers in diplomacy, developing a reputation for being merciless and untrustworthy. I also imagine being a cultural isolate would lead to lording it over conquered neighbors rather than integrating them, leading to numerous rebellions across the empire and throughout their history. Throughout their 1000 year history they’d never quite be strong enough to dominate but never weak enough to have their geographic core threatened. That they reached their maximum at precisely the time sustained contact with the West began leads to an inflated position in history relative to their actual importance.
 
2) a guiding philosophy or strategic underpinning as a guide to this culture (a la the Ghost Dance cult of Tecumseh ).
The Ghost Dance had nothing to do with Tecumseh, he was long dead by the time Wovoka (who was a Paiute, a tribe far from Tecumseh's Shawnee) started the movement.

In any case, easiest POD that comes to mind is in 1848, when Maya rebels during the Caste War abandoned the siege of Merida, capital of the Republic of Yucatan and last major Yucateco stronghold. If the rebels stay in the field longer and crush the Yucatecos, they are going to be left in control of the Yucatan. The British could then help prop them up (IOTL they maintained trade with the smaller Maya rebel nation for several decades) and eventually the Mexicans and Americans will have to recognize them as a sovereign state.
 
Sorry it’s taken me so long to get back to you. I’ve had to give your points some real thought.

Truth be told, not much is known about the Washo other than they were a language (and presumably cultural) isolate that were surrounded and eventually overrun by Uto-aztecan people sometime between the Columbian exchange and sustained contact with Europeans. My POD is more along the lines of knowledge exchange and inspiration from the Anasazi rather than formal relationships/mergers. That is to say I don’t foresee a cultural isolate developing friendly relations with any of their neighbors. The ruling house is a tricky one. I’m sure someone has done the research and traced Washo genealogy and oral history, but I’ve yet to find it. We know Captain Truckee was the chief of the Washo by the Mexican-American war and was a well-respected leader and diplomat. In this TL it would presumably be his father that leads the Washo in their march to the Pacific, with Truckee himself overseeing the Golden decades of the Washo empire. It would be shortly after his death in 1860 that his son, Winnemucca is forced to accept American rule.

Culturally, I’d guess (and it’s only a guess) that three environmental factors would play a big role. First, the Piñon would be the heart of their material culture, with it’s craggy limbs influencing architecture and art and nuts dominating the cuisine (imagine a modern day ‘Washo pizza’ being a pizza with smoked trout and pine nuts as an equivalent to a ‘Hawaiian pizza’ iOTL). Second, the dichotomy of Lake Tahoe in the pristine Sierra Nevada and Pyramid Lake in the barren desert would influence their philosophy, as iOTL those two places had important religious signifigance to the Washo. I could see a really interesting Ditheistic religion developing with the empire having summer and winter capitals and two important temples. Lastly, the mountains and steps would influence battle tactics and tactical thinking in general. A big importance would be placed on holding the high ground, whether in battle or even just in urban planning. They’d be sneak-attackers and dirty dealers in diplomacy, developing a reputation for being merciless and untrustworthy. I also imagine being a cultural isolate would lead to lording it over conquered neighbors rather than integrating them, leading to numerous rebellions across the empire and throughout their history. Throughout their 1000 year history they’d never quite be strong enough to dominate but never weak enough to have their geographic core threatened. That they reached their maximum at precisely the time sustained contact with the West began leads to an inflated position in history relative to their actual importance.

Your analysis and presentation are spot on. You are an Excellent Advocate for the Washoe, and you have introduced me to yet another culture I place in my personal Song Dynasty File. My SDF includes cultures that should by all rights have done much better but didn't, because History is a cruel and bitter mistress. Even though they didn't have the right weapons, the world class quality of their basket weaving ability might have led them to create bizarre weapons such as ultralight woven shields and flaming war balls. Their cultural signposts, like piñon tree, are iconic and identifiable. Their possible adoption of Anasazi technical skills, like fired pottery, might have led, in combination with their prior skills and resources, to metallurgy and chemistry. The Washoe were a boggling culture whose remnants were most soundly destroyed by the development of Lake Tahoe as a tourist Mecca.
 
Ok, the one I was thinking are a lot more boring that the one before but there it´s goes, Give the the Mayan culture in his zenith (circa 700-900 C.E.) the knowledge to make Terra preta, as his fall are most likely associated with his agricultural practices, as I subscribe to the Theory that his agricultural practices were insensible in the poor jungle soil that was the base of his agriculture, the Cyclical Drought of the region could be worked with a well tough series of waterworks and reservoirs, as historical the Mayan do, But the thin and poor soil of the jungle could not be worked around, Unless you use the Terra Preta, terra preta is man made so there is no reason that Mayan couldn´t developed this soil, or import it from the .

As the Mayan Civilization lasted as a force to be recognized in mesoamerica until 1690 aprox, that was when the Spanish could conquest his last city, i support the Mayan civilization.

So here you have a civilization of some 15 to 30 millions peoples( the new estimate of the place in his zenith), in a moment that Spain itself have no more than 8.550.000 people, in the mesoamerican basin, that even with the worst estimates of the old world disease exchange (98-99% of the pre-columbian population) still give you some 150.000 to 600.000 people to continue and rebuild the civilization and oppose the Spanish rule.
 
The Ghost Dance had nothing to do with Tecumseh, he was long dead by the time Wovoka (who was a Paiute, a tribe far from Tecumseh's Shawnee) started the movement.

In any case, easiest POD that comes to mind is in 1848, when Maya rebels during the Caste War abandoned the siege of Merida, capital of the Republic of Yucatan and last major Yucateco stronghold. If the rebels stay in the field longer and crush the Yucatecos, they are going to be left in control of the Yucatan. The British could then help prop them up (IOTL they maintained trade with the smaller Maya rebel nation for several decades) and eventually the Mexicans and Americans will have to recognize them as a sovereign state.

I spoke from memory. Tecumseh and his brother The Prophet, had the Ghost SHIRT Dance cult. There's an important statue of Tecumseh at the United States Naval Academy in Annapolis, Maryland, and every alumnus of that institution participates in a ceremony honoring their ancient and respected enemy for his bravery and virtues.

The candidacy of a late Maya remnant survival under British protection for this challenge is technically within bounds, and their proximity to the Atlantic coast makes their bid interesting for its boldness. However, having a powerful friend, in the British Empire, that alone, without other enumerable material, military or cultural resources and traits, makes one a dependency, pure and simple, even if a national identity remains intact but submerged. The sad story of Chiapas, in the recent decades, comes to mind. In my considered opinion, the Maya are perhaps not yet done, but at least since the time of Cortez, they are "out of the running."
 
Ok, the one I was thinking are a lot more boring that the one before but there it´s goes, Give the the Mayan culture in his zenith (circa 700-900 C.E.) the knowledge to make Terra preta, as his fall are most likely associated with his agricultural practices, as I subscribe to the Theory that his agricultural practices were insensible in the poor jungle soil that was the base of his agriculture, the Cyclical Drought of the region could be worked with a well tough series of waterworks and reservoirs, as historical the Mayan do, But the thin and poor soil of the jungle could not be worked around, Unless you use the Terra Preta, terra preta is man made so there is no reason that Mayan couldn´t developed this soil, or import it from the .

As the Mayan Civilization lasted as a force to be recognized in mesoamerica until 1690 aprox, that was when the Spanish could conquest his last city, i support the Mayan civilization.

So here you have a civilization of some 15 to 30 millions peoples( the new estimate of the place in his zenith), in a moment that Spain itself have no more than 8.550.000 people, in the mesoamerican basin, that even with the worst estimates of the old world disease exchange (98-99% of the pre-columbian population) still give you some 150.000 to 600.000 people to continue and rebuild the civilization and oppose the Spanish rule.

Yeah, that's the thing, it's always alarming how technology in the wrong hands can lead to the destruction of so much that's good and interesting. I look at the Maya and always think: gee, I hope nobody creates the wrong kind of nanobots and every civilization on Earth goes out in a pool of gray goo like the Maya.
 
I spoke from memory. Tecumseh and his brother The Prophet, had the Ghost SHIRT Dance cult. There's an important statue of Tecumseh at the United States Naval Academy in Annapolis, Maryland, and every alumnus of that institution participates in a ceremony honoring their ancient and respected enemy for his bravery and virtues.
Tenskwatawa, the Prophet, had nothing to do with Ghost Shirts either. Ghost Shirts were a part of the Ghost Dance cult. Tenskwatawa's religion had some similarities to Wovoka's Ghost Dance stuff but didn't have the same ritual elements that gave the ghost dance its name.
The candidacy of a late Maya remnant survival under British protection for this challenge is technically within bounds, and their proximity to the Atlantic coast makes their bid interesting for its boldness. However, having a powerful friend, in the British Empire, that alone, without other enumerable material, military or cultural resources and traits, makes one a dependency, pure and simple, even if a national identity remains intact but submerged. The sad story of Chiapas, in the recent decades, comes to mind. In my considered opinion, the Maya are perhaps not yet done, but at least since the time of Cortez, they are "out of the running."
Any native nation is going to need big allies to help it, doesn't make it not count I should think. And I have no idea what you mean when you're talking about lacking military or cultural resources or traits. It would've been the Maya rebels and their own arms that brought the victory over Yucatan, not the British who merely saw them as a useful trade partner with Belize, and Maya culture was and is still alive.
Yeah, that's the thing, it's always alarming how technology in the wrong hands can lead to the destruction of so much that's good and interesting. I look at the Maya and always think: gee, I hope nobody creates the wrong kind of nanobots and every civilization on Earth goes out in a pool of gray goo like the Maya.
What does that have to do with technology? And the Maya civilization didn't disappear, it resisted Spanish conquest until 1697 and rose again in the 1800's.
 
Yeah, that's the thing, it's always alarming how technology in the wrong hands can lead to the destruction of so much that's good and interesting. I look at the Maya and always think: gee, I hope nobody creates the wrong kind of nanobots and every civilization on Earth goes out in a pool of gray goo like the Maya.

The worst Part? that until pretty recently (as 2000 C.E and onward) there was a complete sub-estimation of how big and complex this civilization were, Most Historical Texts say that Maya was no more than five million peoples in his zenith, and that there where no more than 1 million Mayan peoples at the Spanish arrive, the new Lidar discovery get this figure multiplied by three to ten to give you a more rich complex and populated America before the Columbia interchange.
 
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