2010 US Presidential Election

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Sunday December 31st 2017

Durham pulls out of Iowa and heads to New Hampshire

Republican Californian Congressman Will Durham who is polling in last place in Iowa has decided to pull out and focus his intention on the New Hampshire primary. Durham has been pushing hard in New Hampshire and believes he could pull out a surprise win.

Although polls in New Hampshire still have Durham in third place he has built up a strong campaign in the state, and a strong push could end with a surprise win or even second place especially if Kansas Governor Peter Gault wins in Iowa "If Gault beats Shallick and Clark in Iowa, it changes the whole dynamic of New Hampshire. Gault does not have a hope in New Hampshire, but a defeat for both Shallick and Clark in Iowa opens the race in New Hampshire for us" an unnamed source in the Durham campaign told NBS.
 
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Public Service Announcement
It has just turned 2018 here in the UK, Happy New Year.
Cannot believe we are now entering the tenth year of this story.
It's now just EIGHT DAYS from Iowa and FIFTEEN DAYS from New Hampshire.
Keep reading and enjoy.
Right..
What's next.
Mark
 
Public Service Announcement
It has just turned 2018 here in the UK, Happy New Year.
Cannot believe we are now entering the tenth year of this story.
It's now just EIGHT DAYS from Iowa and FIFTEEN DAYS from New Hampshire.
Keep reading and enjoy.
Right..
What's next.
Mark
Happy New Years Marky!

I can't wait to see who wins there...
 
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Tuesday January 2nd 2018

Seven Days until the Caucus

Democratic Poll

  1. Thorn 33% (-2)
  2. Seaborn 25% (-1)
  3. Kellner 15% (-3)
  4. Robinson 13% (+3)
  5. Stray 9% (+5)
  6. Carner 4% (-1)
  7. Bighorse 1% (n/c)
Republican Poll
  1. Shallick 34% (n/c)
  2. Gault 32% (+2)
  3. Clark 26% (n/c)
  4. Durham 8% (-2)
 
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Tuesday January 2nd 2018

Fourteen Days until the Primary

Democratic Poll

  1. Seaborn 30% (n/c)
  2. Thorn 28% (n/c)
  3. Robinson 15% (-1)
  4. Stray 14% (+3)
  5. Kellner 9% (-3)
  6. Carner 3% (+1)
  7. Bighorse 1% (n/c)
Republican Poll

  1. Clark 40% (-1)
  2. Shallick 32% (+1)
  3. Durham 22% (+1)
  4. Gault 6% (-1)
 
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capitolbeat.com, Thursday January 4th

Clark Snaps At Interviewer As Pressure Mounts on VP


Vice President Liz Clark reacted badly to questions about her son's private life and stormed off the set of a Capitol Beat interview this morning leading to people to question whether she has the temperament to last the pace in what is becoming an increasingly tight Republican primary battle.

Clark was interviewed by CB stalwart Don Sargant in what appeared to be a fairly routine interview until Sargant turned to recent robocalls relating to the Vice-President's son who is thought to be bi-sexual. "Frankly, Don that's none of your business." Clark snapped at what seemed like a straight forward question on how she felt about the calls. The Vice-President stumbled through a couple more questions before pulling off her mike and storming off the set.

The stormy interview came amid polling numbers in Iowa that increasingly suggest the Vice-President is an outside bet to win the caucus next week. Despite declining expectations Clark is keeping up a full schedule in the Hawkeye State, confounding advisors who are encouraging to turn her focus to New Hampshire, a state that will likely become a must win race.
 
nbs.com, Thursday January 4th

Gault Team Playing Down Expectations Despite Poll Numbers


The campaign of Kansas Governor Peter Gault are doing all they can to play down their chances in Iowa despite a series of polls suggesting that he has pulled into a statistical tie with former White House Chief of Staff Henry Shallick.

Spokesman Jeff Teague told reporters outside the Archie's Diner in Sioux City, Iowa that "we can't be favourites against the entire weight of the Republican establishment. Governor Shallick has thrown money at this race and the people of Iowa aren't entirely convinced, that much is clear, but we've been the underdog all the way through this race and there is no reason to think otherwise now."

The narrowing of polls suggests next weeks race will be far closer than many expected, Governor Shallick has cancelled plans to travel to New Hampshire and will remain in Iowa until the caucus. His campaign is now seemingly entirely focused on attacking Vice-President Clark and on turning out his support in big cities, he's campaigning his Des Moines and Iowa City today.
 
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Monday January 8th 2018

ONE Day until the Caucus

Fight to the Finish in Iowa


It was a frantic final weekend of campaigning for the candidates of both parties in Iowa.

On the Republican side, Henry Shallick continued with his focus on the big cities, with rallies and events in Des Monies, Iowa City and Cedar Rapids. He focused his attacks on both Kansas Governor Peter Gault and Vice-President Liz Clark. Governor Gault was racing across the state at a frantic speed, with events in Marion, Ankeny, and Cedar Falls. Vice-President Clark had town hall meeting sin Sioux City, Davenport and the aptly named Waterloo.

On the Democratic side, front-runner Andrew Thorn held large rallies in both Des Moines and Cedar Rapids, as well several town hall meetings. His main rival Senator Sam Seaborn was campaigning on a far more low key scale, this new focus his campaign says is working. Further down the field both Maine Governor Paris Stray and Indiana Senator Rudi Robinson have their sights trained on former Pennsylvania Governor Michael Kellner who has a narrow lead in third place, but has come further mired in his alleged links to the in-famous Philadelphia crime family.

 
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Tuesday January 9th 2018

Iowa caucuses explained

Iowa voters today at last cast their verdicts on the Democratic and Republican presidential fields in the state's intricate and quirky caucuses, officially launching the 2018 White House race.

But along with Iowa's first-in-the-nation privileges come responsibility. After all, the state's discerning political activists can make or break campaigns painstakingly pieced together over years in a single night.So it's fitting that the caucuses, caucuses, plural, not singular caucus impose some unusual burdens on voters. In the Iowa caucuses, unlike primaries countrywide, you can't just get away with pulling a lever in a curtained polling booth at any time of the day that's convenient.

Instead, hardy Iowans must attend public meetings in school gyms, arts centres, churches, libraries, restaurants and even fire stations in 1,681 precincts to vote for a candidate. The process is much longer,it can take several hours, and far more convoluted than a primary ballot. So we've provided a guide to understanding how the Iowa voting ritual works.
When does it all start?
Caucus meetings for Iowa Democrats and Republicans begin at 7 p.m. Central Time, or 8 p.m. for the East Coast. Anyone who shows up on time can take part. But don't be late. Once the doors close, there is no entry for stragglers.
Do Democrats and Republicans run their caucuses the same way?
No.
So how do the GOP caucuses work?
The GOP process is the much simpler one. Caucus meetings begin with the Pledge of Allegiance and then activists get straight to the main event by selecting their presidential candidates in a binding vote. Each campaign gets the chance to have a representative make a final pitch to any wavering voters before a secret ballot. Some caucus sites might use a printed ballot paper. Others just go with a candidate's name on a scrap of paper. Raw totals of votes are tallied by local party officials and sent to Iowa GOP headquarters, where a running count is kept.
And the Democratic ones?
The Democratic caucus system is a little more intricate. As soon as the meetings open, attendees must declare a preference for a candidate. Typically, backers of each presidential hopeful physically stake out positions around the room. People who still can't make up their mind join a group known as "uncommitted." This is where it gets complicated. In order to be considered "viable," a group must clear a certain threshold, usually around 15% of the entire caucus turnout in each precinct. Once first-round votes are tallied, anyone stuck in a group that is not "viable" has the chance to align with a candidate who has passed the threshold.
Is that the only difference?
No. A controversial aspect of the Democratic caucuses is the lack of a secret ballot. That means people will have to live with the vote they cast in front of their friends and neighbours for the next four years. And the faint of heart may be susceptible to pressure from more vociferous contemporaries. Thus, a candidate who wins the first round of a caucus is not home safe. They can still end up losing if their supporters fail to win over backers of candidates eliminated for not passing the threshold and instead see that support go elsewhere, one reason why the organization and training of precinct captains is so crucial for campaigns.
Can independents participate?
Another wrinkle that angers critics is the way independents are shut out: Only registered Democrats or Republicans can take part. In theory, people who have not previously registered to vote can arrive at a caucus site and do so. And it is possible to switch party affiliation on the night. But the system is still criticized for keeping out more moderate voters and often leads to a perception that only the most committed, radical voters show up.
When will we know who won?
The final tabulated results will be declared by the Democratic and Republican Parties. It could all be wrapped up between about 11 p.m. ET and midnight. But soon after the caucus doors close, it should be possible for NBS to report on where the race is heading and begin the process of projecting a winner.
 
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Tuesday January 9th 2018

Police called to Pizza Ranch in Des Moines as fight breaks out between Clark and Gault supporters

State Police where called to a Pizza Ranch in Des Monies this afternoon after reports of a fight breaking out between the supporters of Vice-President Liz Clark and Governor Peter Gault.

Both campaigns had sent volunteers into the restaurant in a final bid for votes ahead of the caucuses, and according to witnesses a fight broke out after raised voices, we understand punches where thrown and the police called. No-one from either campaign has yet to make any comment.
 
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Good evening. Tonight the race to be the 46th President of the United States of America officially begins. What happens tonight will influence what happens in 301 days time when we will back when two of these candidates will be their parties Presidential nominees.

The Caucus venues closed at 7.pm Central time, and will have our exclusive "Entrance Polls" for both races.

Here they are:

Republican
  1. Gault 33%
  2. Shallick 33%
  3. Clark 26%
  4. Durham 8%
Democrat
  1. Thorn 30%
  2. Seaborn 25%
  3. Robinson 18%
  4. Kellner 13%
  5. Stray 10%
  6. Carner 3%
  7. Bighorse 1%
If these polls are broadly correct, then it is a disappointing result for Vice-President Clark although it is in line with the final polls. The caucus looks to come down to be a dead heat between Henry Shallick and Peter Gault.

On the Democratic side, it does look like Senator Andrew Thorn has done slightly worse than the polls had been predicting, but based on the "Entrance Polls" the main loser tonight looks to be former Pennsylvania Governor Michael Kellner who seems to be caught in the late serge by Indiana Senator Rudi Robinson. Maine Governor Paris Stray who has poured her heart and soul into Iowa in the last few weeks looks likely to be rewarded with at least a strong fifth placed finish.

From what we are hearing on the ground that Democratic turnout will be much the same as 2014, whilst the Republican turnout is likely to be higher than 2010.
 
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It is just after ten here in Iowa.
This is the latest.
The Republican caucus is a fight between Henry Shallick and Peter Gault. At the moment Gault is narrowly ahead, Vice-President Clark is someway behind those two and congressman Durham way back in fourth. The results so far, are as per the "Entrance Poll".
As for the Democrats, Senator Thorn leads Senator Thorn much the same as per the "Entrance Poll", but it does look like that the Caucus has it's first Presidential causality of the night, as we understand Congressman Scott Bighorse is going to withdraw from the race within the next half hour or so.
The other main focus is lower down the order on the Democratic side, with Rudi Robinson polling a very strong third place, and a strong performance from Maine Governor Paris Stray who looks to be locked in a titanic battle with Michael Kellner in the race for fourth place.
 
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We can now make the following projection in the Democratic race:

New York Senator Andrew Thorn wins the Democratic Iowa Caucus

He looks to have beaten California Senator Sam Seaborn by just over 4% of the vote, which is far less than the polls had been showing, and around 1% down on our "Entrance Poll" at the start of the night. We will have the full results later on.

We are yet not able to call the Republican race, it is still too close to call between Gault and Shallick, but Vice-President Clark has failed to win or even get close to winning she is likely to the returns we are seeing to get around just 25% of the vote, which will be a big disappointment to her and her campaign.
 
nbs.com

Breaking News!

Wednesday January 10th, 2018


China to give billions to Mongolia, Pakistan, CAF

The Chinese Foreign Affairs Ministery announced that China will give billions of dollars to Mongolia, Pakistan and the Central African Federation. Each nation is going to receive ten billion dollars each. This money is for economic and infrastructure development. This is beleived to be the largest foreign foreign aide money given by China in recent history.


Qian to go to Davos

Chinese President Qian Min will be attending the economic summit in Davos, Switzerland later this month. He is There as a special guest talking with many other world leaders. President Walken never attended the summit and neither did President Santos. He is rumored to go to Davos and meet with the Prime Minister of India and the President of Kazakhstan.


Qian announces post Davos visit to CAF

President Qian of China will go to Louisville, in the Central African Federation In a two day stop in Louisville.
 
nbs.com, Wednesday January 10th

Gault Team Claim Victory As GOP Await Final Result

Kansas Governor Peter Gault is declaring victory in the Iowa caucus in what looks likely to be an extremely close final result. With 98% of caucus results in the Kansas Governor appeared to have a small lead over former White House Chief of Staff Henry Shallick, but with the remaining votes coming from mainly rural areas where Gault enjoys strong support, it looks increasingly like the Governor will pull off a remarkable victory.

Key surrogates such as Kansas Senator Sam Wilkinson, took to the airwaves to claim victory in the early hours of the morning. “We’re obviously waiting on the final numbers but it really looks like Governor Gault has convinced the people of Iowa that betraying our principles and swinging more and more to the left is not the way to win elections.”

If the result is confirmed it will mark an incredible turnaround in the caucus where Governor Shallick had long been the presumed favourite and enjoyed a massive poll lead, but Gault’s ability to connect on the ground and win over values voters has seemingly swung the state in his direction.

Should Gault prevail it will come as a hammer blow to Shallick who has long banked a victory here, and spent the vast majority of his funds in South Carolina, Florida and Michigan where we was hoping to run up big wins against Vice-President Liz Clark. On last night’s evidence Clark and Shallick split the vote in big cities and ceded rural and traditional Republican heartlands to Gault with seemingly disastrous results.
 
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We know that the campaign team of Governor Gault have been proclaiming victory, but we are still not ready to call it for him.
Also the official returns on the GOP Iowa website, also has not called the race for him, so we will wait.

What does look certain though on the Democratic side, has not only Senator Andrew Thorn the victor, it does look like Maine Governor Paris Stray has beaten for former Pennsylvania Governor Michael Kellner into fourth place by around 800 or so votes. It has been a determined push by Stray and Indiana Senator Rudi Robinson, who have both taken advantage of the difficulties encountered by Kellner to beat him down into fifth place.

There has only been one casualty of the night as we reported earlier and that is South Dakota Congressman Scott Bighorse, he only pulled around 0.80% of the vote and told supporters that he was pulling out, although he did not endorse anyone else.
 
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We can now confirm the winner of the Republican Iowa Caucus:

Kansas Governor Peter Gault wins the Republican Iowa Caucus

The final margin looks like being just 812 votes with Gault on 33.56% to Henry Shallick's 33.24%, a margin of 0.32%.
Vice-President Clark has just under 25% of the vote and Congressman Will Durham who pulled out of the state over a week ago getting just over 8% of the vote.

No news from the Shallick campaign, but the team around the Vice-President including her campaign Manager Colt Merchant are pushing a positive angle and already down playing Gault's win (it was not confirmed at the time he spoke to reporters) "The Vice-President will be thanking her supporters later on today, then we will move onto New Hampshire where we already have a good lead" adding "Gault cannot win in New Hampshire, he isn't likely to win the nomination, and he certainly has no hope of winning the general election, Gault's success here is no-more than a negative protest vote".


 
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We can confirm the results from both races:

Republican
  1. Peter Gault 84,318 33.56%
  2. Henry Shallick 83,516 33.24%
  3. Elizabeth Clark 62,711 24.96%
  4. Will Durham 20,704 8.24%
Total Vote:251,249
Winning Margin: 812 votes 0.32%
Gault wins the states 40 delegates
Democrat
  1. Andrew Thorn 70,615 29.32%
  2. Sam Seaborn 60,066 24.94%
  3. Rudi Robinson 47,301 19.64%
  4. Paris Stray 26,781 11.12%
  5. Michael Kellner 25,963 10.78%
  6. Kurt Carner 8,260 3.43%
  7. Scott Bighorse 1,859 0.77%
Total Vote: 240,845
Winning Margin: 10,549 votes 4.38%
Thorn wins the states 57 delegates
 
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townhall.com, Wednesday January 10th

Gault: "Voters have made clear they want a conservative nominee"


Minutes after confirmation of the final result in Iowa, Governor Peter Gault thanked his supporters and said that the result would "send shockwaves through the Republican elite, who think they can sit in Washington and surrender the principles of the conservative movement." A clearly delighted Gault flanked by his wife and children told a packed victory party that he was "humbled" by the support he had received and said it was a victory for "conservative principles" adding that the people have Iowa have made clear their desire for a "conservative nominee".

He thanked former White House Chief of Staff Henry Shallick for a "courteous" concession phone call but interestingly didn't reference Vice-President Liz Clark who trailed in third place despite spending a siginifcant amount of time in the state.

The Gault team confirmed that the Governor was headed directly to South Carolina where polls suggest he is closing the gap with Shallick, skipping New Hampshire entirely to get a head start. A spokesman said "we are laser focused on South Carolina now, the Governor will head there first thing tomorrow and will be campaigning immediately. We feel the enthusiasm of the people of Iowa is shared across the country and that the Governor's message of common sense conservativism is cutting through."
 
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