Arctofire
Banned
Hi guys, I know there's already been many threads about this but I wanted to give my own unique spin on it.
You might remember me making the post What if the Spartacist Revolt Succeeded?, a scenario which I have since seen people's issues with. It turns out there were many obstacles for a successful revolution taking place in Germany at that present time, meaning whilst not impossible, would have needed a stroke of luck.
However, another failed revolution which could have changed the course of history, which I feel was much more likely to succeed, is the Spanish Revolution of 1936. So favourable was the revolutionary opportunity, that literally a only a pin prick was needed for it to be successful. However, the Soviet bureaucracy, not wanting a revolution in the west to threaten their authority and dominance over the communist movement, completely sabotaged it by crushing worker's uprisings against the Republican government in favour of a Popular Front Policy against fascism. However, the mass of public opinion was ready for an insurrection, including the left wing of PSOE, including it's leadership, the POUM, and the CNT. What the Comintern policy really meant was siding with the capitalist Republicans against the workers. They said they wanted absolute unity of the republican cadres, but the result was far less unity than if they'd called for an insurrection as a result of having to repress the will of the people. This leading to a breakdown in morale, more fighting of revolutionaries than fascists, and one of the most hideous and ghastly regimes to have ever have walked the earth to rule Spain for nearly 40 years.
It is one of the greatest tragedies in history, and one of the greatest crimes of Stalinism, that a revolution which inspired the hopes of millions of people across Spain and the world was crushed so brutally when the conditions were so favourable. It was so favourable because Spain was a country where Stalinism did not have a firm established base, and there was more openness around alternative versions of socialism.
The POUM had the potential to be a revolutionary party, and it's leader, Andreu Nin, had been in contact with Trotsky. Trotsky expressed his concerns at the POUM's policy, and offered suggestions of what would be the right course. He suggested that the POUM enter into the Youth section of PSOE, as that was where a huge amount of radicalised youth were, and to not join the Popular Front. Nin however, chose to ignore this advice, and the cost was enormous. He underestimated the brutality and counter revolutionary nature of the Stalinists, who absorbed the radicalised youth instead. They also used the popular front to mercilessly persecute the POUM and the CNT rank and file, and take out the revolutionary PSOE leadership of Largo Caballero and replace it with the right wing Juan Negrin.
The Point of Divergence in this timeline is tiny, simple and realistic: Andreu Nin follows Trotsky's advice. He does not merge the left opposition Communist Left of Spain and the right opposition Worker's and Peasant's Bloc, and instead changes the name of the party to the Revolutionary Communist Party of Spain to emphasis it's connection with the communist movement. The RCL enters into the Youth wing of PSOE but not the Popular Front, meaning it's able to absorb it's cadres but able to stay independent of the reactionary Stalinist's and capitalists. By 1937, after the stalinists call for all weapons to be handed over to the government, the RCL would be in a strong position to resist, and would absorb CNT supporters angry with the leadership, with a promise of immediate revolution. This could have led to the communes being secured, and a workers state would have been formed. The majority of well intentioned revolutionaries in the PCE would have switched to support the revolution, and all capitalist elements of the republican forces would have been swept aside. With the strong morale of the proletariat and peasantry, the revolutionaries would have been able to hang onto their territory, and with much more united forces, would have by 1939 defeated the Nationalists.
The new worker's state is that of democratic, libertarian socialism, and breaks all ties with Stalin, denouncing him as a traitor, and holds the first congress of the Fourth International. Trotsky arrives in Madrid to make a grand speech, congratulating the Spanish proletariat and declaring the world revolution imminent.
Meanwhile, appeasement is failing, and Hitler and Stalin form an alliance whilst invading Poland, beginning WW2. The course of the war is similar to that of OTL, except that Spain joins the war and is a major player in fighting fascist Italy. Hitler is too distracted with Russia to worry about Spain, and like in our timeline, at the end of WW2 Italy erupts into mass strikes and revolutionary fervor, except with Spain being such a major player in it's liberation, Stalinism is again marginalised, and the calls for partaking in liberal democracy scorned in favour of revolution. Workers take power in Italy, as well as Greece. Forming a Democratic Socialist alliance against capitalism and Stalinism.
Of course, there is a huge divide in the world communist movement because of this, with Spain and Russia competing for dominance. It de-intensifies the Cold War as the US views Spain as a bigger threat to it's interests than the Soviet Union, although there is still huge tension between the two countries when it comes to their interests in Europe.
Also, the Socialist Worker's Party in America gains a larger following due to it's relation with the Fourth International, and the 1945-1946 strike wave in the US, instead of the CP putting on the breaks and waiting for the Democrats to repeal the anti trade union laws which they don't, the SWP encourages the workers of America to strike until wages increase and the law is beaten, leading to a proto revolutionary situation in America. The SWP outnumbers the CP in terms of membership, and the momentum of the American left prevalent in the 30's continues on throughout the 40's and 50's, with the SWP becoming a major force in US politics and firmly holding onto control in state legislative in the northernmost states. Mass opposition to the Korean War and US imperialism follows, and to prevent a revolution at home, the United States continues to expand the social safety net, creating single payer health care, free college tuition, a fairer electoral system, and continuing on New Deal economics. Whilst still wanting to expand it's influence, it is far less ruthless in doing so, and US foreign policy in the 50s and 60's becomes more like it was under the presidency of Jimmy Carter.
Southern Europe is completely modernised, creating the best education and healthcare systems, the most direct democracy, and highest living standards of living in the world. Mass British immigration to Spain takes place as people wish to build a new life for themselves in the lands of the free. Eventually all the world turns democratic socialist and the world today is 1000 times better than it is in OTL.
You might remember me making the post What if the Spartacist Revolt Succeeded?, a scenario which I have since seen people's issues with. It turns out there were many obstacles for a successful revolution taking place in Germany at that present time, meaning whilst not impossible, would have needed a stroke of luck.
However, another failed revolution which could have changed the course of history, which I feel was much more likely to succeed, is the Spanish Revolution of 1936. So favourable was the revolutionary opportunity, that literally a only a pin prick was needed for it to be successful. However, the Soviet bureaucracy, not wanting a revolution in the west to threaten their authority and dominance over the communist movement, completely sabotaged it by crushing worker's uprisings against the Republican government in favour of a Popular Front Policy against fascism. However, the mass of public opinion was ready for an insurrection, including the left wing of PSOE, including it's leadership, the POUM, and the CNT. What the Comintern policy really meant was siding with the capitalist Republicans against the workers. They said they wanted absolute unity of the republican cadres, but the result was far less unity than if they'd called for an insurrection as a result of having to repress the will of the people. This leading to a breakdown in morale, more fighting of revolutionaries than fascists, and one of the most hideous and ghastly regimes to have ever have walked the earth to rule Spain for nearly 40 years.
It is one of the greatest tragedies in history, and one of the greatest crimes of Stalinism, that a revolution which inspired the hopes of millions of people across Spain and the world was crushed so brutally when the conditions were so favourable. It was so favourable because Spain was a country where Stalinism did not have a firm established base, and there was more openness around alternative versions of socialism.
The POUM had the potential to be a revolutionary party, and it's leader, Andreu Nin, had been in contact with Trotsky. Trotsky expressed his concerns at the POUM's policy, and offered suggestions of what would be the right course. He suggested that the POUM enter into the Youth section of PSOE, as that was where a huge amount of radicalised youth were, and to not join the Popular Front. Nin however, chose to ignore this advice, and the cost was enormous. He underestimated the brutality and counter revolutionary nature of the Stalinists, who absorbed the radicalised youth instead. They also used the popular front to mercilessly persecute the POUM and the CNT rank and file, and take out the revolutionary PSOE leadership of Largo Caballero and replace it with the right wing Juan Negrin.
The Point of Divergence in this timeline is tiny, simple and realistic: Andreu Nin follows Trotsky's advice. He does not merge the left opposition Communist Left of Spain and the right opposition Worker's and Peasant's Bloc, and instead changes the name of the party to the Revolutionary Communist Party of Spain to emphasis it's connection with the communist movement. The RCL enters into the Youth wing of PSOE but not the Popular Front, meaning it's able to absorb it's cadres but able to stay independent of the reactionary Stalinist's and capitalists. By 1937, after the stalinists call for all weapons to be handed over to the government, the RCL would be in a strong position to resist, and would absorb CNT supporters angry with the leadership, with a promise of immediate revolution. This could have led to the communes being secured, and a workers state would have been formed. The majority of well intentioned revolutionaries in the PCE would have switched to support the revolution, and all capitalist elements of the republican forces would have been swept aside. With the strong morale of the proletariat and peasantry, the revolutionaries would have been able to hang onto their territory, and with much more united forces, would have by 1939 defeated the Nationalists.
The new worker's state is that of democratic, libertarian socialism, and breaks all ties with Stalin, denouncing him as a traitor, and holds the first congress of the Fourth International. Trotsky arrives in Madrid to make a grand speech, congratulating the Spanish proletariat and declaring the world revolution imminent.
Meanwhile, appeasement is failing, and Hitler and Stalin form an alliance whilst invading Poland, beginning WW2. The course of the war is similar to that of OTL, except that Spain joins the war and is a major player in fighting fascist Italy. Hitler is too distracted with Russia to worry about Spain, and like in our timeline, at the end of WW2 Italy erupts into mass strikes and revolutionary fervor, except with Spain being such a major player in it's liberation, Stalinism is again marginalised, and the calls for partaking in liberal democracy scorned in favour of revolution. Workers take power in Italy, as well as Greece. Forming a Democratic Socialist alliance against capitalism and Stalinism.
Of course, there is a huge divide in the world communist movement because of this, with Spain and Russia competing for dominance. It de-intensifies the Cold War as the US views Spain as a bigger threat to it's interests than the Soviet Union, although there is still huge tension between the two countries when it comes to their interests in Europe.
Also, the Socialist Worker's Party in America gains a larger following due to it's relation with the Fourth International, and the 1945-1946 strike wave in the US, instead of the CP putting on the breaks and waiting for the Democrats to repeal the anti trade union laws which they don't, the SWP encourages the workers of America to strike until wages increase and the law is beaten, leading to a proto revolutionary situation in America. The SWP outnumbers the CP in terms of membership, and the momentum of the American left prevalent in the 30's continues on throughout the 40's and 50's, with the SWP becoming a major force in US politics and firmly holding onto control in state legislative in the northernmost states. Mass opposition to the Korean War and US imperialism follows, and to prevent a revolution at home, the United States continues to expand the social safety net, creating single payer health care, free college tuition, a fairer electoral system, and continuing on New Deal economics. Whilst still wanting to expand it's influence, it is far less ruthless in doing so, and US foreign policy in the 50s and 60's becomes more like it was under the presidency of Jimmy Carter.
Southern Europe is completely modernised, creating the best education and healthcare systems, the most direct democracy, and highest living standards of living in the world. Mass British immigration to Spain takes place as people wish to build a new life for themselves in the lands of the free. Eventually all the world turns democratic socialist and the world today is 1000 times better than it is in OTL.
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