OTL Election maps resources thread
- Thread starter Thande
- Start date
Well, between 1889 and 1894 the sole representative for Stuttgart was a man named Gustav Stälin. He was, of course, a right-liberal.
I mean, to be clear, this is the result in Gladsaxe:
So it's not like they had a commanding lead or anything.
For the record, I don't need money, I don't need health, but dammit I need the chutzpah and the imagination to invent something that barely even comes close to the "thing that looks like alternate history but isn't" that is a Georgist party called the Justice League.
OK I might need some money.
OK I might need some money.
MoralisticCommunist
Banned
Wow it's surprising to see that Clinton managed to win the white female vote in Wisconsin while losing the state overall.
I would not use the word "Tent" to describe Putin supporters. The word I would use is four letters long, and ends in "...nt". I will leave you to work the rest out yourselves.
Come on, man. That's a pretty yuge percentage of the country's population you're describing.
A county-level* map of the 2016 House elections.
Basemap by Chixculub;, district borders based on TheHambone12's map, though some districts were adjusted.
*Kansas did not supply county-level data
EDIT NOV. 4: Added county returns for Pennsylvania.
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Thande
Donor
Very nice work. I've seen county maps for a few individual states, but never all together like that. Excellent.
A county-level* map of the 2016 House elections.
Basemap by Chixculub;, district borders based on TheHambone12's map, though some districts were adjusted.
*Kansas did not supply county-level data, and Pennsylvania's site was down, so I couldn't obtain data for some of its districts. Not being pedantic with Louisiana, either.
I wonder what a map showing the deviation between the presidential and House county data would look like, though obviously the counties comprising unopposed seats would stick out.
It's interesting to see how the presence of different minority groups has different effects on the white vote.2016, White Female Vote by County:
(crossposted from the american politics thread)
United States presidential election straw poll in Guam by village, 2000
George W. Bush / Dick Cheney (Republican) - 51.58% - 18,075 votes
Al Gore / Joe Lieberman (Democratic) - 47.22% - 16,549 votes
Harry Browne / Art Olivier (Libertarian) - 1.20% - 420 votes
United States presidential election straw poll in Guam by village, 2000
George W. Bush / Dick Cheney (Republican) - 51.58% - 18,075 votes
Al Gore / Joe Lieberman (Democratic) - 47.22% - 16,549 votes
Harry Browne / Art Olivier (Libertarian) - 1.20% - 420 votes
Thande
Donor
Interesting idea. Would it be different if you based it on raw number of votes rather than %?Who led the GOP ticket in Missouri in 2016?
Red: Donald Trump (President)
Orange: Mike Parsons (Lieutenant Governor)
Yellow: Eric Schmitt (State Treasurer)
Green: Jay Ashcroft (Secretary of State)
Blue: Josh Hawley (Attorney General); led statewide
Some notes on this:
-Defining "led the ticket" as getting the best % of the vote in their respective race
-Trump led the ticket in the least educated, most rural, and poorest areas of the state.
-For 12 years, Mike Parsons was the sheriff of the county he led the ticket in (Polk County)
-The lone county Schmitt led the ticket in is Cole County, where the State Capital is located
-There doesn't appear to be any particular rhyme or reason to the counties Ashcroft lead in, since he's from the opposite side of the state to those areas, and there's no unifying demographic trait.
-Hawley led the ticket in the wealthiest and most educated areas, as well as in Missouri's bible belt (his victory is probably a more "traditional" GOP map, that someone like Rubio would have gotten if the nominee). This may have relevance in 2018, since Hawley is running for Senate, and College Educated Whites and Evangelicals will be two very critical groups to watch in Missouri.
Another quickie: the last Danish elections held under FPTP, in 1913. A lot of these constituencies survived into the PR era as nomination districts, a virtually-unique feature of Danish PR that forces parties to nominate local candidates for different parts of a given constituency.
This election resulted in the ouster of Council President Klaus Berntsen's right-wing Venstre government (Denmark being Denmark), in power since the previous elections in 1910, and its replacement with a Radical government under Carl Theodor Zahle. The Radicals were actually only the third party in this election, but Zahle was nevertheless given the nod with the passive support of Thorvald Stauning's Social Democrats. He would carry on as Council President (and then Prime Minister, after the 1915 constitution changed the title) until 1920, serving through the First World War and the subsequent cession of Northern Schleswig (referred to consistently as de sønderjyske landsdele, "the South Jutland provinces", so as not to imply that this was all of South Jutland, or for that matter the only "Danish" part of it).
Copenhagen did have thirteen FPTP constituencies, it's just that I can't find their boundaries.
This election resulted in the ouster of Council President Klaus Berntsen's right-wing Venstre government (Denmark being Denmark), in power since the previous elections in 1910, and its replacement with a Radical government under Carl Theodor Zahle. The Radicals were actually only the third party in this election, but Zahle was nevertheless given the nod with the passive support of Thorvald Stauning's Social Democrats. He would carry on as Council President (and then Prime Minister, after the 1915 constitution changed the title) until 1920, serving through the First World War and the subsequent cession of Northern Schleswig (referred to consistently as de sønderjyske landsdele, "the South Jutland provinces", so as not to imply that this was all of South Jutland, or for that matter the only "Danish" part of it).
Copenhagen did have thirteen FPTP constituencies, it's just that I can't find their boundaries.
The Japanese House of Representatives Election that took place on the previous Sunday. The election takes place in 289 FPTP constituency seats and 176 proportional block seats. This system was put into place in the 90s as a way of breaking up the Liberal Democratic (henceforth LDP) prefecture patron-client networks under SNTV. That said, Japan does not have any laws in place regarding redistricting, with redistricting taking place when a bill passes the diet. This has famously led to cases where seats are horribly apportioned, due to outdated lines. Most recently, in 2013, five districts were cut, and then 10 more in 2016. After the 2020 census a complete redistricting has been ordered.
The 2017 election can perhaps be summarized as 'Much ado about Nothing.' LDP PM Shinzo Abe called the election ahead of the scheduled one in 2018 largely due to the beneficial political environment. His approvals were riding high off of a cabinet reshuffling, there was a general 'rally around the flag' effect from the North Korea crisis, potential rival Tokyo Governor Yuriko Koike had just been elected in 2016 and had little time to build a national party, and the opposition Democratic Party (DP) was in crisis. There was a high chance he would return the 2/3s majority LDP-KP (Komeito Party, eternal partner of LDP) to government.
From there though things began to unravel. Abe's approvals turned downwards as his call for new elections appeared as nothing more then a political poly. Koike would form the Hope Party (HP) hours before writ for elections was published, and would receive the endorsements of several prominent DP MPs along with hints of cooperation from fellow 'Third Pole' governors. With the news media fawning over the continued rise of Koike, this only furthered the fractured within the DP. Not long into the campaign, the party voted to dissolve itself and merge in HP, in an instant making the election a actual competition. For a period of time, Abe's decision to call the election looked to be the biggest mistake since Theresa May's failing call. Except, Koike made a mistake. Only many HP issues she was fine with being a big tent party and welcoming in DP members - except on constitutional changes. She refused to renominate a group of left-leaning DP MPs due to their opposition to military constitutional reform. These MPs went on to form the Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP).
Now, there was still a good chance at opposition success. Despite CDP and HP divisions, they were still the opposition. In much of the county, the two parties, and the handful of smaller parties agreed to split up seats. In many of the FPTP seats, it was LDP/KP vs HP/CDP/Regional vs JCP (Communists), perhaps the best case for the opposition. Instead of a division of opposition votes, the FPTP seats would have an opposition candidate best fitting the region. Crucially, one of the few places agreements like this were not in place was Tokyo, Koike's home base. Polling up to the last week showed HP still with a significant opposition role, with the opposition looking to have successfully not cut up their vote-share.
Then came the last week. Polling in the final week of the election showed a CDP surge, driven by DP voters returning to their natural roots. The opposition surge in Tokyo transferred cleanly towards the left, swinging many potential HP gains to the LDP and a few to the CDP. A tropical storm would crash into the islands The weekend of the election plummeting turnout in the south. Only in the north did the medium level turnout predicted by polls come to pass. In Japan, the opposition voters need a prodding to turn out, the LDP vote tends to be safe. With the storm hitting, many voters took the time to cast early ballots, a rare thing in Japan. However, turnout returned back to baseline, and the opposition vote dropped.
In the end, Abe got what he wanted - by 3 seats, he returned his 2/3s majority. Despite the twists and turns, the opposition was divided, and their voters failed to turnout.
There is a high number of independents on the map largely due to the politics of the DP/HP/CDP. When the DP collapsed Koike didn't renominate every DP MP, those associated with the failed government of 2009 were refused in order to portray an image of something new. Despite this, Koike, and later the CDP, would gives these candidates a wink and a nod and not run against them. In effect all these independents were opposition MPs who would rejoin a party post election. It is very likely, with the failure of HP, that most return to the CDP, along with many HP MPs from the former DP.
Credit goes to our own Utgard/Ajrelectionmaps for the basemap, which I adjusted to be more up to date. This is because there are only three FPTP maps of Japan out there to my knowledge: the Wikipedia one which has distortions due to its small size in the South, the Psephos map with 30+ inserts, and Thande's.
The redone (now with mail ballots) and margin maps for Austria are coming, I simply had a bunch of tests last week and had zero time. Expect them within the week.
The 2017 election can perhaps be summarized as 'Much ado about Nothing.' LDP PM Shinzo Abe called the election ahead of the scheduled one in 2018 largely due to the beneficial political environment. His approvals were riding high off of a cabinet reshuffling, there was a general 'rally around the flag' effect from the North Korea crisis, potential rival Tokyo Governor Yuriko Koike had just been elected in 2016 and had little time to build a national party, and the opposition Democratic Party (DP) was in crisis. There was a high chance he would return the 2/3s majority LDP-KP (Komeito Party, eternal partner of LDP) to government.
From there though things began to unravel. Abe's approvals turned downwards as his call for new elections appeared as nothing more then a political poly. Koike would form the Hope Party (HP) hours before writ for elections was published, and would receive the endorsements of several prominent DP MPs along with hints of cooperation from fellow 'Third Pole' governors. With the news media fawning over the continued rise of Koike, this only furthered the fractured within the DP. Not long into the campaign, the party voted to dissolve itself and merge in HP, in an instant making the election a actual competition. For a period of time, Abe's decision to call the election looked to be the biggest mistake since Theresa May's failing call. Except, Koike made a mistake. Only many HP issues she was fine with being a big tent party and welcoming in DP members - except on constitutional changes. She refused to renominate a group of left-leaning DP MPs due to their opposition to military constitutional reform. These MPs went on to form the Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP).
Now, there was still a good chance at opposition success. Despite CDP and HP divisions, they were still the opposition. In much of the county, the two parties, and the handful of smaller parties agreed to split up seats. In many of the FPTP seats, it was LDP/KP vs HP/CDP/Regional vs JCP (Communists), perhaps the best case for the opposition. Instead of a division of opposition votes, the FPTP seats would have an opposition candidate best fitting the region. Crucially, one of the few places agreements like this were not in place was Tokyo, Koike's home base. Polling up to the last week showed HP still with a significant opposition role, with the opposition looking to have successfully not cut up their vote-share.
Then came the last week. Polling in the final week of the election showed a CDP surge, driven by DP voters returning to their natural roots. The opposition surge in Tokyo transferred cleanly towards the left, swinging many potential HP gains to the LDP and a few to the CDP. A tropical storm would crash into the islands The weekend of the election plummeting turnout in the south. Only in the north did the medium level turnout predicted by polls come to pass. In Japan, the opposition voters need a prodding to turn out, the LDP vote tends to be safe. With the storm hitting, many voters took the time to cast early ballots, a rare thing in Japan. However, turnout returned back to baseline, and the opposition vote dropped.
In the end, Abe got what he wanted - by 3 seats, he returned his 2/3s majority. Despite the twists and turns, the opposition was divided, and their voters failed to turnout.
There is a high number of independents on the map largely due to the politics of the DP/HP/CDP. When the DP collapsed Koike didn't renominate every DP MP, those associated with the failed government of 2009 were refused in order to portray an image of something new. Despite this, Koike, and later the CDP, would gives these candidates a wink and a nod and not run against them. In effect all these independents were opposition MPs who would rejoin a party post election. It is very likely, with the failure of HP, that most return to the CDP, along with many HP MPs from the former DP.
Credit goes to our own Utgard/Ajrelectionmaps for the basemap, which I adjusted to be more up to date. This is because there are only three FPTP maps of Japan out there to my knowledge: the Wikipedia one which has distortions due to its small size in the South, the Psephos map with 30+ inserts, and Thande's.
The redone (now with mail ballots) and margin maps for Austria are coming, I simply had a bunch of tests last week and had zero time. Expect them within the week.
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IFwanderer
Banned
EDIT: Found one. Thanks anyway
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I guess that's me out of an evening activity then. Oh well, that at least shows it's good enough that I don't feel I have to do it as well.