WI: Anglo-Russian War in 1790

[Pittite]

During the Second Russo-Turkish War, Britain delivered an ultimatum to Russia demanding that Russian forces under the command of Potemkin withdraw from Ochakov, which Potemkin had recently secured, and establish a peace agreement with the Ottomans, or Britain, Prussia and Poland-Lithuania would intervene in the war in support of the Ottomans.

In our timeline, the British Government ultimately withdrew the ultimatum, and such a war never came about - but what if Russia rejected the ultimatum before it was withdrawn, and an Anglo-Russian War erupted in 1790? How long would such a war last? Who would win? What would become of the French Revolutionary Wars?

 

[Gwachiko]

If Prussia joins, then Russia will be forced to make a white peace with the Ottomans. If not, they ignore Britain's warning and carry on with the war... And win.

Russia would ally France at the first opportunity regardless of the outcome of this war out of enmity with Britain. This means the 1792 war goes even worse for the coalition. Russia might get Galicia and East Prussia in the War of the First Coalition and later partition Europe with France.

 

[raharris1973]

Well, where would the Franco-Russian dividing line across Europe fall?

I drew up this map awhile back for a "Bonaparte-Romanov Pact" but it could work as well for the Republic of France.

Do they split Europe along the green, purple, red or yellow line?

 

[Gwachiko]

Well, where would the Franco-Russian dividing line across Europe fall?

I drew up this map awhile back for a "Bonaparte-Romanov Pact" but it could work as well for the Republic of France.

Do they split Europe along the green, purple, red or yellow line?


View attachment 348736

I think it would be the red line. Prussia and the Balkans are definitely going to Russia.

 

[Socrates]

I think it would be the red line. Prussia and the Balkans are definitely going to Russia.

I disagree. I think it would be the red line in the south and the purple in the north.

 

[Mustard]

If Prussia joins, then Russia will be forced to make a white peace with the Ottomans. If not, they ignore Britain's warning and carry on with the war... And win.

Russia would ally France at the first opportunity regardless of the outcome of this war out of enmity with Britain. This means the 1792 war goes even worse for the coalition. Russia might get Galicia and East Prussia in the War of the First Coalition and later partition Europe with France.

Wasn't Austria allied with Russia at this point in opposition to the Ottomans? Surely that means that the War of the First Coalition would never break out, as Austria and Prussia are both fighting one another in this alternate conflict, and therefore will not ally to confront France.

 

[Ultima Ratio]

Extremely interesting PoD with a lot of possibilities. I have never heard of this ultimatum, it's fascinating. Would love to read a TL about this.

 

[Gwachiko]

Wasn't Austria allied with Russia at this point in opposition to the Ottomans? Surely that means that the War of the First Coalition would never break out, as Austria and Prussia are both fighting one another in this alternate conflict, and therefore will not ally to confront France.

Are you sure Austria would back Russia against Ottomans? Austria already opposed any further Russian expansion in the Balkans. The partitions of Poland were pushed by Frederick II to distract Russia and Austria from their standoff in the Balkans and preserve the alliance.

 

[Mustard]

Are you sure Austria would back Russia against Ottomans? Austria already opposed any further Russian expansion in the Balkans. The partitions of Poland were pushed by Frederick II to distract Russia and Austria from their standoff in the Balkans and preserve the alliance.

I'm not saying that Austria would back Russia against the Ottomans, I'm saying that they did - at the point that Britain sent the ultimatum to Russia, Austria was also at war with the Ottomans. So it is likely that, if the ultimatum were rejected, it is likely that the following alliance systems would be in play:

Britain, Prussia, the Dutch Republic (collectively the Triple Alliance), Poland-Lithuania, and the Ottomans
vs.
Russia and Austria

France would definitely be a wildcard in this scenario - would Austria still try and reinstate the ancien regime without Prussia, and with another war to fight simultaneously?

 

[BellaGerant]

France would definitely be a wildcard in this scenario - would Austria still try and reinstate the ancien regime without Prussia, and with another war to fight simultaneously?

Austria wouldn't be able to, its economy wouldn't be able to stand fighting that many fronts (the HRE, the Balkans, Belgium), especially with the instability and rebellions that kept it from really chewing into the Ottomans OTL.

 

[marcinL]

The real question is whether Prussians would follow their obligations, or rather use the situation to provoke new partition of Poland as in otl. Because unless this ends in Russian blitzkrieg campaign this war could ultimately strenghten PLC and this is not something Prussia wants.

 

[Britannicus]

I'm not saying that Austria would back Russia against the Ottomans, I'm saying that they did - at the point that Britain sent the ultimatum to Russia, Austria was also at war with the Ottomans. So it is likely that, if the ultimatum were rejected, it is likely that the following alliance systems would be in play:

Britain, Prussia, the Dutch Republic (collectively the Triple Alliance), Poland-Lithuania, and the Ottomans
vs.
Russia and Austria

France would definitely be a wildcard in this scenario - would Austria still try and reinstate the ancien regime without Prussia, and with another war to fight simultaneously?

I suspect that Sweden would join the war on the side of the Triple Alliance once it was clear that the war would be going in Britain's favour, and this in turn would most likely bring in Denmark-Norway on the side of Russia. So it is possible that this conflict could result in another Northern War - one which would possibly reverse the outcome of the Great Northern War.

 

[Shinsu]

I suspect that Sweden would join the war on the side of the Triple Alliance once it was clear that the war would be going in Britain's favour, and this in turn would most likely bring in Denmark-Norway on the side of Russia. So it is possible that this conflict could result in another Northern War - one which would possibly reverse the outcome of the Great Northern War.

The Swedes had just finished fighting the Russians (and the Danes) in 1788-1790 that saw the Swedes lose ~24,000 men and fought the Danes for a year in the "theater" war where they lost another ~2,000 men. I don't see them going to war again any-time soon, the public, government and King himself wanted only a short war.

 

[Vanity 6]

I don't think Austria and Prussia get involved. Neither of them are much help. Austria is overextended and must retrench. End their involvement in the Turkish War, come to an agreement with the Hungarians, quash rebellion in the Austrian Netherlands and contain Prussia.

Prussia doesn't really want to fight Russia. They want to continue to partition Poland. In fact, both Austria and Prussia want to remain on good terms with Russia. So the British are without allies. Russia wins a short limited war.

As for the French Revolutionary Wars, they don;t happen. The Anglo-Russian conflict forces Austria to reach an accommodation with France--an extension of the 1756 alliance. Thus, without the Declaration of Pillnitz and the hysteria about and Austrian invasion, France evolves into a constitutional monarchy. if there is conflict among the powers in the west, they are the usual geopolitical wrangling.

In the east, the partitions of Poland are completed with Austria at the table for both of them. Warsaw ends up in the Austrian sphere. Only when Russia starts to push into Moldavia do we see another war and this time, there will be a coalition of powers working to contain Russia/prop up the Ottomans--an earlier Crimean War.