WI: US Nuclear Weapons Operational One Year Earlier

Using tons of handwavium, the US is able to produce nuclear weapons one year earlier than IOTL. The first nuclear test is conducted in July 1944, and first bombs are available for operational use in early August. Against which targets they will be used and how the final phase of war will generally unfold?
 
Berlin would be symbolic but pretty useless it would just be re arranging the rubble. By Aug 1944 the Western Allies are getting close to the borders of West Germany so I doubt that Eisenhower would want his forces advancing through a nuclear zone. Plus most of the Ruhr was well bombed by then.

Most likely one of the cities that hadnt had a 24 hour raid but was a valuable Military/Industrial/Transport target. Most likely its going to be in the East and South East of Germany.

Its going to be the D word lets face it. Then the thread will descend into the usual shitstorm of David Irving wannabes claiming D was a pretty pastoral town full of busty blonde Mädchen and twinkly eyed Großvater, nein nein Kriegsindustrie nichts heir.
 
Well, the US wasn't within bombing range of Japan that early, so the initial bombs would definitely fall on Germany.
You could see Abomb attacks on e.g. Truk and Iwo Jima to speed up the advance in the Pacific, depending on how many bombs you get. (OP just says operational 1 year earlier, this could include e.g. work on earliest possible bombs was prioritized, so the massive infrastructure of iOTL isn't there for the multiple bomb a month production rate they were planning for by the end of iOTL 1945. iTTL, do they have that rate at the end of 1944?

Certainly, the Nazis aren't going to surrender after a nuke or two, and you may find them simply being viewed as super bombs, a cheaper version of a 1000 plane raid. Which would be horrible for the world after the war....
 
OK, but now you have to also handwave silverplate B-29s being available for this mission as well, there may be need to extend a runway in England and of course build the bomb pit. In August 1944 the Luftwaffe is not impotent, so there is the issue of tactics. You could have some B-29s start flying over Germany singly or flights of 3 to get the Germans acclimated to "recon" flights which they may decide not to try and intercept given the small numbers and altitudes. Of course this may spur them to work on getting high to intercept them if their radar finds then. I expect the safest thing would be to do this at night, the B-29s have decent bomb radar to find a city, you could even send a pathfinder ahead with a short interval, and with an A-bomb, aiming at the center of the city is all you need.

No matter what getting the bomb delivered over any German city in August, 1944 is going to be tricky as while the odds of the Germans being able to do anything with a captured [partially wrecked A-bomb are small, simply seeing how little fissile material is needed would be a huge bump for them. Heisenberg was gobsmacked when he realized his calculations on needed material were totally wrong.
 
...I doubt that Eisenhower would want his forces advancing through a nuclear zone.

Prior to OTL use of the bombs on Japan, I don't think anyone appreciated just how dangerous fallout and residual radiation was (Op Downfall considered using them on defenders). So, perhaps Eisenhower would not have seen this as a concern?
 
OK, but now you have to also handwave silverplate B-29s being available for this mission as well, there may be need to extend a runway in England and of course build the bomb pit. In August 1944 the Luftwaffe is not impotent, so there is the issue of tactics.
Umm.... But if the Bomb is available earlier, and they know the size and weight and such, they'd also start work on the silverplate mod earlier, too. August '44 is, admittedly awfully early for that....
Also, if the B-29 isn't ready yet, can the Lancaster (which could carry a 10t earthquake bomb), or a mod thereof, work? Build a bigger bomb-bay (if necessary for a Fatman), increase the wingspan and add a couple more engines....
 
Yalta is gonna be awkward: Churchill will no doubt act like the Allies don't need Russia anymore; which Stalin will not appreciate (having taken the vast brunt of the casualties).
 
Umm.... But if the Bomb is available earlier, and they know the size and weight and such, they'd also start work on the silverplate mod earlier, too. August '44 is, admittedly awfully early for that....
Also, if the B-29 isn't ready yet, can the Lancaster (which could carry a 10t earthquake bomb), or a mod thereof, work? Build a bigger bomb-bay (if necessary for a Fatman), increase the wingspan and add a couple more engines....
That's a major reenginereing job, almost designing a new aircraft probably take longer than Silverplate. Unlike the B-29 the Lancaster can't clear the blast radius of the bomb quick enough, without major modification to the point of basically being a new aircraft. Any timely Lanc based solution is going to have to be a remote controlled aircraft, and WAllied luck with those was poor, to say the least
 
Unlike the B-29 the Lancaster can't clear the blast radius of the bomb quick enough, without major modification to the point of basically being a new aircraft. Any timely Lanc based solution is going to have to be a remote controlled aircraft, and WAllied luck with those was poor, to say the least

Couldn't they use a parachute?
 
Couldn't they use a parachute?
Designing that sort of parachute isn't easy, it took years to design the parachutes used for H-Bombs, and while these would be simpler, I still don't think they would be that simple. Plus they were worried about the bomb getting shot up, hence why Fat Man and Little Boy were armored
 
Plus they were worried about the bomb getting shot up, hence why Fat Man and Little Boy were armored

I suppose the question is whether the WAllies consider it to be worth the risk of the drag bomb getting shot up? By the end of September, with Market Garden having failed and Hurtgen forest turning into a meat grinder, it would be becoming increasingly clear that the chance of ending the war conventionally before Christmas had gone, and the potential risks of a failed bomb attack might become outweighed by the potential advantages of a successful one.
 
If the trinity test tests place in July 1944 then preparations for delivering the bomb are already in place. OTL Tinian was selected for the takeoff point for the atomic bomb mission in February 1945. Construction of the bomb assembly facilities began soon after that.

RAF Marham, Sculthorpe, And Lakenheath were all closed during the war for modification to a very heavy bomber base according to Wikipedia. Any of these could have been extended in the spring of 1944 to handle a combat loaded B-29. Isley Field built from a Japanese airfield in three months OTL on Saipan. No reason at least one airfield could be made to handle at least one B-29 group. There are
Plenty of AAF engineers already in England. If you need more I'm sure Hap Arnold will send more.

The problem is that the Silverplate B-29s are just being built in August 1944. You can delay the trinity test until the first Silverplates are actually delivered to the USAAF. This also gives you time to get a base ready in the Marianas. The 73rd Bomber Wing flew it's first mission in November 1944 against the Japanese home islands. You are going to need Recon flights over Japan. There is no way the atomic bomb is going to be delivered from China with the 58th Wing. No one is going to take the chance of the bomb's components being lost flying over the hump.

At least one B-29 group could be taken from either the 58th or 73rd wings for duty in England. You get them flying missions out of England to get the Germans used to seeing B-29s. Back in Los Alamos they keep cranking out atomic bombs. I say maybe November the earliest you can put together enough bombs and Silverplates to hit Germany and Japan.
 
Its going to be the D word lets face it. Then the thread will descend into the usual shitstorm of David Irving wannabes claiming D was a pretty pastoral town full of busty blonde Mädchen and twinkly eyed Großvater, nein nein Kriegsindustrie nichts heir.

Quite appropriate that I was drinking beer and eating a pretzel when i read that.
 
Umm.... But if the Bomb is available earlier, and they know the size and weight and such, they'd also start work on the silverplate mod earlier, too. August '44 is, admittedly awfully early for that....
Also, if the B-29 isn't ready yet, can the Lancaster (which could carry a 10t earthquake bomb), or a mod thereof, work? Build a bigger bomb-bay (if necessary for a Fatman), increase the wingspan and add a couple more engines....

A Lanc could do it...as a suicide mission. Honestly I think you'd have to put some rockets under the wings to give it enough oomph to get out of the way because no way are you going to let the bomb go on a parachute.

Now you know what might work, if it had been planned from the getgo, and that's just nuts enough for the British to try: the Woodcaster. Get the same teams building the Mosquito to build a fleet of ultra-high power wood Lancasters to drop big bombs and the a-bomb.
 

trurle

Banned
A Lanc could do it...as a suicide mission. Honestly I think you'd have to put some rockets under the wings to give it enough oomph to get out of the way because no way are you going to let the bomb go on a parachute.

Now you know what might work, if it had been planned from the getgo, and that's just nuts enough for the British to try: the Woodcaster. Get the same teams building the Mosquito to build a fleet of ultra-high power wood Lancasters to drop big bombs and the a-bomb.
Replacing the structural material is equal to building a new aircraft.
As an alternative..
B-29 were already in operation since June 1944. If need more developed aircraft to fit nuclear bomb, leasing few Pe-8 from Soviet Union in early 1944 may be a sufficient solution - they had much higher ceiling than Lancaster, so can attack with relative impunity. Range was 1200km with 5 ton bomb attached. And these heavy bombs (FAB-5000) were already used in 1943 (1st usage recorded 28 April 1943 against Koningsberg fortifications). Russian wiki says about problems with pilot training and bad bomb sights, but these problems may be solvable for leased aircraft. Lancaster B.6 by June 1944 was not much worse though.
 
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@sloreck AFAIK there were plans to base B-29s in Northern Ireland.

As to getting the Silverplate aircraft operational who says the Allies have to rush to use the Bomb? Why not wait a few months until there are more bombs and the Silverplate aircraft are operational.

The last time we discussed this (only a few months back IIRC) the issue of the impact on planning for D-Day came up. If the Bomb is ready a year early there is a very real chance, IMVHO, that the Normandy landings get put on the back-burner. Especially if the strategy is to use a significant number of bombs in a short space of time.
 
Truck Lagoon or some other Japanese Naval Base would get nuked when full of warships.
For the European theater, Polosti instantly taking out ⅓ of Germany's oil production will seriously hurt the German war effort.
Or right before D-Day hit several major rail hubs in Germany.
The U-Boat construction yards are also a tempting Target.
 
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