Alternate Electoral Maps II
- Thread starter Aaaaasima
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Gentleman Biaggi
Banned
Dumb 2040 map with 2010 census numbers:
Mary Lewis (D-AK)/Jack McDouglas (I-SC) 292 EVs
Robert Marcus (R-LA)/Harper Ford (R-MN)
Mary Lewis (D-AK)/Jack McDouglas (I-SC) 292 EVs
Robert Marcus (R-LA)/Harper Ford (R-MN)
Here's what I would say this electoral map looks like:
250 R - 222 D - 66 tossup
All four states you have as toss-ups are lean-R. Also, Texas is certainly not safe R here, it's toss-up to tilt-R.
Below is my map of the congressional districts in this scenario. Using the map posted by Bjornhattan earlier in response to my scenario, as well as common sense and best guess based off county sizes, etc., this is what I have. Rutherford, of course, wins every district that Hillary Clinton carried in OTL (205), as well as 201 of the 230 districts carried in OTL by Trump. If any districts are off, I would like to know:
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The 7th Party System (2004-present)
This party system found its roots in the Anti-Federal Decade (1992-2000), which saw a reversal of many of the federal government's powers that had been granted to it in the Cold War years. These years saw the ascension of Anti-Federal Party, who burst into the national field with the landslide election of Senator Jerry J. Mitchell. Mitchell's 4 years (he declined to run for a second term, probably because of his poor health) were prosperous, and his Vice President Randall Beck naturally won in '96. However, Beck's administration suffered a series of domestic and international scandals, crippling the nascent party. The Democrats and Republicans bubbled back to power, forming new coherent ideologies by the 2004 election: the Democrats are anti-federalist and socially moderate, and the Republicans are pro-federalist and socially liberal.
In the years following 2004, a pattern has emerged. Hispanics and African Americans, who had benefitted from the government's assistance policies during the Cold War and saw a horrendous degradation of their communities during the Anti-Federal Decade, flocked to the pro-federal Republican Party. Meanwhile, College-Educated Whites and Asians, who prospered in the Anti-Federal Decades, swayed loyally to the Democratic Party. Non-College Educated Whites have been split down the middle by the two parties, but tend to lean Democratic.
Meanwhile, the disgraced Anti-Federalist Party lurks somewhere in far-right, ready to pounce on the Democratic Party and reclaim the libertarian vote for themselves.
The 7th Party System has resulted in lots of criticism being levied on the Electoral College. The nature of large swing states means that a candidate could skirt by with the bare minimum to win a majority in California or New York and effectively win the election, nullifying the loser's tremendous popular vote from that state that was slightly too little. Additionally, the nature of very small swing states means that a small popular vote win results in a relatively larger electoral reward--and because many of the central swing states are demographically similar, performing slightly better with the Non-College Educated White vote results in a large electoral advantage. This could be seen in the 2004 election when incumbent Democratic president Howard Shaw won Illinois by .6% and won the election with 271 despite losing the popular vote 45%-47%, the 2008 election when Republican Governor James Galindo won with 275 electoral votes despite losing the popular vote by .3%, and the 2012 election when President Galindo's .4% popular vote lead lost to Democratic Senator Jen Kao's 318 electoral votes (Kao won both California and New York). Three elections in a row in which the winner did not win the popular vote has resulted in bipartisan support for a constitutional amendment, though the process has been slow.
Jen Kao's presidency was a disaster, with several domestic scandals and an embarrassing series of skirmishes with the rogue state of Libya. Meanwhile, the Anti-Federalists begin gaining moment on the right....
2016:
In 2016, Jen Kao was defeated in a landslide defeat (463-70), thanks to the efforts of the Anti-Federalist spoiler Charles S. Russel (who received a district in Maine and a few faithless electors for his efforts--this isn't depicted on the map). President James Stiff, America's first African American president and the oldest president to date, has high approval ratings and a friendly Congress to pursue his agenda. However, the conflict with Libya continues to heat up, and some economists predict a major recession. The Democrats, eager for revenge, begin searching for their perfect candidate. President Stiff braces for the worst, hoping his administration can survive the oncoming troubles.
This party system found its roots in the Anti-Federal Decade (1992-2000), which saw a reversal of many of the federal government's powers that had been granted to it in the Cold War years. These years saw the ascension of Anti-Federal Party, who burst into the national field with the landslide election of Senator Jerry J. Mitchell. Mitchell's 4 years (he declined to run for a second term, probably because of his poor health) were prosperous, and his Vice President Randall Beck naturally won in '96. However, Beck's administration suffered a series of domestic and international scandals, crippling the nascent party. The Democrats and Republicans bubbled back to power, forming new coherent ideologies by the 2004 election: the Democrats are anti-federalist and socially moderate, and the Republicans are pro-federalist and socially liberal.
In the years following 2004, a pattern has emerged. Hispanics and African Americans, who had benefitted from the government's assistance policies during the Cold War and saw a horrendous degradation of their communities during the Anti-Federal Decade, flocked to the pro-federal Republican Party. Meanwhile, College-Educated Whites and Asians, who prospered in the Anti-Federal Decades, swayed loyally to the Democratic Party. Non-College Educated Whites have been split down the middle by the two parties, but tend to lean Democratic.
Meanwhile, the disgraced Anti-Federalist Party lurks somewhere in far-right, ready to pounce on the Democratic Party and reclaim the libertarian vote for themselves.
The 7th Party System has resulted in lots of criticism being levied on the Electoral College. The nature of large swing states means that a candidate could skirt by with the bare minimum to win a majority in California or New York and effectively win the election, nullifying the loser's tremendous popular vote from that state that was slightly too little. Additionally, the nature of very small swing states means that a small popular vote win results in a relatively larger electoral reward--and because many of the central swing states are demographically similar, performing slightly better with the Non-College Educated White vote results in a large electoral advantage. This could be seen in the 2004 election when incumbent Democratic president Howard Shaw won Illinois by .6% and won the election with 271 despite losing the popular vote 45%-47%, the 2008 election when Republican Governor James Galindo won with 275 electoral votes despite losing the popular vote by .3%, and the 2012 election when President Galindo's .4% popular vote lead lost to Democratic Senator Jen Kao's 318 electoral votes (Kao won both California and New York). Three elections in a row in which the winner did not win the popular vote has resulted in bipartisan support for a constitutional amendment, though the process has been slow.
Jen Kao's presidency was a disaster, with several domestic scandals and an embarrassing series of skirmishes with the rogue state of Libya. Meanwhile, the Anti-Federalists begin gaining moment on the right....
2016:
In 2016, Jen Kao was defeated in a landslide defeat (463-70), thanks to the efforts of the Anti-Federalist spoiler Charles S. Russel (who received a district in Maine and a few faithless electors for his efforts--this isn't depicted on the map). President James Stiff, America's first African American president and the oldest president to date, has high approval ratings and a friendly Congress to pursue his agenda. However, the conflict with Libya continues to heat up, and some economists predict a major recession. The Democrats, eager for revenge, begin searching for their perfect candidate. President Stiff braces for the worst, hoping his administration can survive the oncoming troubles.
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I can't really see the entire rust belt going R while Georgia and North Carolina go D, in 2020. unless someone like John Bel Edwards or maybe Roy Cooper is the Democratic nominee.
How is the south solidly republican if they're both pro-big government AND socially liberalThe 7th Party System (2004-present)
This party system found its roots in the Anti-Federal Decade (1992-2000), which saw a reversal of many of the federal government's powers that had been granted to it in the Cold War years. These years saw the ascension of Anti-Federal Party, who burst into the national field with the landslide election of Senator Jerry J. Mitchell. Mitchell's 4 years (he declined to run for a second term, probably because of his poor health) were prosperous, and his Vice President Randall Beck naturally won in '96. However, Beck's administration suffered a series of domestic and international scandals, crippling the nascent party. The Democrats and Republicans bubbled back to power, forming new coherent ideologies by the 2004 election: the Democrats are anti-federalist and socially moderate, and the Republicans are pro-federalist and socially liberal.
In the years following 2004, a pattern has emerged. Hispanics and African Americans, who had benefitted from the government's assistance policies during the Cold War and saw a horrendous degradation of their communities during the Anti-Federal Decade, flocked to the pro-federal Republican Party. Meanwhile, College-Educated Whites and Asians, who prospered in the Anti-Federal Decades, swayed loyally to the Democratic Party. Non-College Educated Whites have been split down the middle by the two parties, but tend to lean Democratic.
Meanwhile, the disgraced Anti-Federalist Party lurks somewhere in far-right, ready to pounce on the Democratic Party and reclaim the libertarian vote for themselves.
The 7th Party System has resulted in lots of criticism being levied on the Electoral College. The nature of large swing states means that a candidate could skirt by with the bare minimum to win a majority in California or New York and effectively win the election, nullifying the loser's tremendous popular vote from that state that was slightly too little. Additionally, the nature of very small swing states means that a small popular vote win results in a relatively larger electoral reward--and because many of the central swing states are demographically similar, performing slightly better with the Non-College Educated White vote results in a large electoral advantage. This could be seen in the 2004 election when incumbent Democratic president Howard Shaw won Illinois by .6% and won the election with 271 despite losing the popular vote 45%-47%, the 2008 election when Republican Governor James Galindo won with 275 electoral votes despite losing the popular vote by .3%, and the 2012 election when President Galindo's .4% popular vote lead lost to Democratic Senator Jen Kao's 318 electoral votes (Kao won both California and New York). Three elections in a row in which the winner did not win the popular vote has resulted in bipartisan support for a constitutional amendment, though the process has been slow.
Jen Kao's presidency was a disaster, with several domestic scandals and an embarrassing series of skirmishes with the rogue state of Libya. Meanwhile, the Anti-Federalists begin gaining moment on the right....
2016:
In 2016, Jen Kao was defeated in a landslide defeat (463-70), thanks to the efforts of the Anti-Federalist spoiler Charles S. Russel (who received a district in Maine and a few faithless electors for his efforts--this isn't depicted on the map). President James Stiff, America's first African American president and the oldest president to date, has high approval ratings and a friendly Congress to pursue his agenda. However, the conflict with Libya continues to heat up, and some economists predict a major recession. The Democrats, eager for revenge, begin searching for their perfect candidate. President Stiff braces for the worst, hoping his administration can survive the oncoming troubles.
POD in the Cold War (Reagan’s not around so no “government is the problem” until Anti-Feds) + moderate Southern whites + high-turnout pro-GOP African Americans + high-turnout pro-GOP Hispanics
Gentleman Biaggi
Banned
Richard Nixon/Spiro Agnew (R) 522 EVs
George Wallace/Kevin White (D) 9 EVs
George McGovern/Jacob K. Javits (P) 7 EVs
Richard Nixon/Spiro Agnew (R) 522 EVs
George Wallace/Kevin White (D) 9 EVs
George McGovern/Jacob K. Javits (P) 7 EVs
Yep, Nixon would have absolutely crushed Wallace. I don't think Wallace would even be competitive anywhere outside the South... I'm not so sure that McGovern would win South Dakota as a third party though.
We Are Number One except Robbie Rotten wins Nebraska and the whole shebang
Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton (D-NY) / Senator Tim Kaine (D-VA) - 269/41%
Donald Trump (R-NY) / Governor Mike Pence (R-IN) - 266/39%
Stefan Karl Stefansson (I-Iceland) (write-in) - 3/14%
Plot twist: Rotten chooses Joe Manchin and Charlie Baker's love child as his running mate.
In accordance with my Rutherford timeline scenario posted earlier, here are two maps. One is of the parallel's world's 2016 United States Senate results; the other, of its 2016 United States House of Representatives results. As you can see, candidates rode in on the President's coattails in many states:
United States Senate elections, 2016
Democrats 68 (+7)
Republicans 32 (-7)
United States House of Representatives elections, 2016
Democrats 329 (+54)
Republicans 106 (-54)
Any guesses as to which notable incumbents lost, or how circumstances came about to put Republicans so low?
United States Senate elections, 2016
Democrats 68 (+7)
Republicans 32 (-7)
United States House of Representatives elections, 2016
Democrats 329 (+54)
Republicans 106 (-54)
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Gentleman Biaggi
Banned
Vote-splitting between two conservative candidates plus a home field advantage gives the Progs an easy victory in SD
And another addition to my Rutherford scenario: the map of the 2016 presidential election by state:
United States presidential election, 2016
William J. Rutherford/Harold Ford, Jr. (Democratic) 527 EV-63.58%-48+D.C.
Donald J. Trump/Michael R. Pence (Republican) 11 EV-34.07%-2
Close states
Margin of victory <5%
West Virginia, 1.52%
Wyoming, 1.91%
Arkansas, 2.70%
Oklahoma, 4.08%
Margin of victory <10%
Alabama, 5.61%
Kentucky, 5.93%
Tennessee, 6.20%
Idaho, 9.23%
Nebraska, 9.97%
United States presidential election, 2016
William J. Rutherford/Harold Ford, Jr. (Democratic) 527 EV-63.58%-48+D.C.
Donald J. Trump/Michael R. Pence (Republican) 11 EV-34.07%-2
Close states
Margin of victory <5%
West Virginia, 1.52%
Wyoming, 1.91%
Arkansas, 2.70%
Oklahoma, 4.08%
Margin of victory <10%
Alabama, 5.61%
Kentucky, 5.93%
Tennessee, 6.20%
Idaho, 9.23%
Nebraska, 9.97%
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My biggest question is how Stefanik managed to survive while Simpson and Palazzo didn't.It was by random chance. I chose Stefanik and King to be the Republican survivors in New York, so that they wouldn't be completely wiped out there. Moreover, I used the 270 to win rankings to determine which seats should flip, and according to 270 to win, her district is safer than theirs.
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