Alternate Electoral Maps II

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Frederick Douglass for some reason?


Yes!
... I have no clue how a black man would manage to win the GOP nomination in 1888 (despite them obviously being much more pro-civil rights than the Democrats of the time), but I just thought of this in my mind. Honestly this may be a bit generous to Douglass, I could see him only winning Vermont in a worst case scenario.
 
Under the leadership of the Machiavellian Governor Gustavo Guzman, commonly referred to as "El Gus," the Libertarians came up with a revolutionary idea to allow the state government to gain extra cash fast, by selling meth.

And I'm assuming this Governor Guzman looks something like this?
618v1Ud9ZeL._SY355_.jpg
 

Don Quijote

Banned
In the 2017 local election the Conservatives benefited significantly from the support of large numbers of ex-UKIP voters, and this seemed to bode well for the upcoming general election. However on 8th June, the Conservatives failed to receive as strong a boost from UKIP as they expected, and failed to win a majority. For this I've decided to increase the UKIP to Conservative effect, by taking 50% of the actual UKIP vote in each seat and transferring it to the Conservatives. In the vast majority of seats it wasn't enough to change anything, but overall it would result in a very narrow majority for the Conservatives, if only due to Sinn Fein's abstentionism. Map only covers GB, NI is included in overall results below.

ukge.png


Seats changed due to 50% UKIP-Con adjustment:
Ashfield, Lab-Con
Barrow and Furness, Lab-Con
Crewe and Nantwich, Lab-Con
Dudley North, Lab-Con
Keighley, Lab-Con
Lanark and Hamilton East, SNP-Con
Penistone and Stockbridge, Lab-Con

Overall result, including Northern Ireland:
Con 324
Lab 256
SNP 34
LD 12
DUP 10
SF 7
Gre 1
Ind 1

(Map adapted from one made by @The British Empire , which in turn came from a map by @Thande )
 
I realize this makes me look a bit narcissistic, but I think this is what the electoral map would look like if I ran as a Republican (in the mold of Nelson Rockefeller, not surprisingly), versus an unpopular Democratic nominee. my running mate is Mark Warner (going for that moderate hero image, plus it further helps lock down Virginia)


IJ1reLA.png
Interesting. But I think that there will be a third candidate with "true conservative" platform, who will hurt your perfomance.
 
In the 2017 local election the Conservatives benefited significantly from the support of large numbers of ex-UKIP voters, and this seemed to bode well for the upcoming general election. However on 8th June, the Conservatives failed to receive as strong a boost from UKIP as they expected, and failed to win a majority. For this I've decided to increase the UKIP to Conservative effect, by taking 50% of the actual UKIP vote in each seat and transferring it to the Conservatives. In the vast majority of seats it wasn't enough to change anything, but overall it would result in a very narrow majority for the Conservatives, if only due to Sinn Fein's abstentionism. Map only covers GB, NI is included in overall results below.

Seats changed due to 50% UKIP-Con adjustment:
Ashfield, Lab-Con
Barrow and Furness, Lab-Con
Crewe and Nantwich, Lab-Con
Dudley North, Lab-Con
Keighley, Lab-Con
Lanark and Hamilton East, SNP-Con
Penistone and Stockbridge, Lab-Con

Overall result, including Northern Ireland:
Con 324
Lab 256
SNP 34
LD 12
DUP 10
SF 7
Gre 1
Ind 1

(Map adapted from one made by @The British Empire , which in turn came from a map by @Thande )

I'd maybe flip Bishop Auckland too - there was no UKIP candidate there. The majority was about 500 and a BNP candidate got 1000 votes.
 

Don Quijote

Banned
I'd maybe flip Bishop Auckland too - there was no UKIP candidate there. The majority was about 500 and a BNP candidate got 1000 votes.
I suppose I could do that, but it was more to see the specific Ukip to Conservative effect, which seemed far stronger in the locals than in the GE.
 
A realistic re-alignment scenario I thought of.

genusmap.php


Democrats go down the Bernie Sanders route, taking a populist/progressive stance on economic issues and de-emphasizing cultural issues, while Republicans moderate socially and do better with minorities and the wealthy. This leads to states like West Virginia and Arkansas returning to the Democrats, while states like California and New York become swing states. this map represents a narrow 277-261 Electoral College victory for the GOP candidate, but 7-8 states are within 2% either way so this would be a very competitive election.
 
A realistic re-alignment scenario I thought of.

genusmap.php


Democrats go down the Bernie Sanders route, taking a populist/progressive stance on economic issues and de-emphasizing cultural issues, while Republicans moderate socially and do better with minorities and the wealthy. This leads to states like West Virginia and Arkansas returning to the Democrats, while states like California and New York become swing states. this map represents a narrow 277-261 Electoral College victory for the GOP candidate, but 7-8 states are within 2% either way so this would be a very competitive election.
Mississippi and Iowa seem really out of place here.
 
Iowa is also one of the richest states, though.


Even so, it still has a larger than average share of WWC voters. Also, I didn't assume that The GOP would universally do very well with wealthier voters, or that the Democrats would universally do well with poor voters. it's a state by state thing.
 
Even so, it still has a larger than average share of WWC voters. Also, I didn't assume that The GOP would universally do very well with wealthier voters, or that the Democrats would universally do well with poor voters. it's a state by state thing.
I'm not so sure how well it would play.
 
A realistic re-alignment scenario I thought of.

genusmap.php


Democrats go down the Bernie Sanders route, taking a populist/progressive stance on economic issues and de-emphasizing cultural issues, while Republicans moderate socially and do better with minorities and the wealthy. This leads to states like West Virginia and Arkansas returning to the Democrats, while states like California and New York become swing states. this map represents a narrow 277-261 Electoral College victory for the GOP candidate, but 7-8 states are within 2% either way so this would be a very competitive election.
Interesting map, but I don't think that it is very realistic. I doubt that Dakotas would ever vote D. They were republican states even when the Republicans were more liberal than Democrats. Also, don't think that California, Texas and New York would be so easy to flip, unless it's something like Baker vs. Manchin (and even then it would be very competitive).
But I agree that WV, GA and the rust belt would vote D.
 
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