Alternate Electoral Maps II

[The Uchronian]

The GOP base goes bonkers, while the Democrats decide to go towards the center after 8 years of Trump. the result is the greatest landslide since Reagan '84.



2028 Presidential Election

Governor John Bel Edwards (D-LA)/Governor Richard Cordray (D-OH) 58% Popular Vote ~ 514 Electoral Votes

Senator Roy Moore (R-AL)/Breitbart News Executive Stephen Bannon (R-NY) 28% Popular Vote ~ 24 Electoral Votes

Austin Petersen (L-MO)/Rand Paul (L-KY) 10.5% Popular Vote ~ 0 Electoral Votes

All Others 3.5% ~ 0 Electoral Votes

This is an interesting map, though I'm not so sure John Bel Edwards would be the right candidate for such a landslide scenario.....I'd have personally gone for somebody like Kirsten Gillibrand instead; someone with centrist credentials but who can still appease the Democratic base

Beto gives Lyin' Ted a scare, but in the end Texas is just too red for him to seal the deal.

Nice job. Might be about the best that Cruz could hope for in '18 IOTL the way things have been going.....maybe 52-53% tops if O'Rourke doesn't do so well.

Jim Matheson pulls off the biggest upset of 2018 in the Utah senate election.

Matheson would need to be hella lucky to pull this off, barring a major scandal and/or some other extraordinary factor(s).....but this does seem pretty like a pretty believable scenario for what the map might look like if he did, though.

Results of the 1890 New England general election. We see the collapse of the Labour party and the Conservatives, benefitting from the spoiler effect with many independent candidates running, being swept into power and forming the first non-Liberal government in New England history.

Hey, look who's back! Nice map, VT! I've missed seeing stuff from your universe.....I'd love to see you make a full-fledged TL outta this someday, btw.

 

[Tex Arkana]

On a similar note, how would this look on a county level? https://www.americanhistoryusa.com/campaign-trail/game/540888

I can make an actual map later, but Clinton probably wins fewer counties than McGovern.

 

[Calthrina950]

I assumed she would carry both states narrowly, so yes there are enough minorities in those states for Clinton to win them by 1-3% without winning the white vote outright.

The scenario has Clinton win Idaho by 9.23% and Nebraska by 9.97%. I think that would be a large enough margin for Clinton to win the white vote in those states. Also, I'm not sure exactly how high the minority vote is in Kentucky either. Also, it astonishes me how Indiana and Texas would be carried by double-digits, but still be mostly Republican on the county level. Where would the Democratic margins come from?

 

[Tex Arkana]

The scenario has Clinton win Idaho by 9.23% and Nebraska by 9.97%. I think that would be a large enough margin for Clinton to win the white vote in those states. Also, I'm not sure exactly how high the minority vote is in Kentucky either. Also, it astonishes me how Indiana and Texas would be carried by double-digits, but still be mostly Republican on the county level. Where would the Democratic margins come from?

If you could post the margins for each state, I would be able to make a more realistic map.

Obviously the margins in Texas and Indiana come from the big cities (Indianapolis, Gary, Houston, Dallas, etc).

 

[Oppo]

Matheson would need to be hella lucky to pull this off, barring a major scandal and/or some other extraordinary factor(s).....but this does seem pretty like a pretty believable scenario for what the map might look like if he did, though.

It's not that out of the picture. Polls show that McMullin would beat Hatch by four points, and that 70% of Utahans want him to retire. In 2012, he was tied with Hatch in opinion polls but decided not to run. However, I agree with you somewhat. Only Matheson or McMullin really have a shot at defeating Hatch in 2018 thanks to their personal popularity.

 

[Calthrina950]

If you could post the margins for each state, I would be able to make a more realistic map.

Obviously the margins in Texas and Indiana come from the big cities (Indianapolis, Gary, Houston, Dallas, etc).

I actually created a chart in my scenario using all of the numbers, percentages, and margins provided by the game here: http://fiction.wikia.com/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_2016#Results_by_state.

As you can see, West Virginia would be the closest state (decided by 1.52%), followed by Wyoming (1.91%) and then Arkansas (2.70%).

 

[Leon Thotsky]

Interesting game of President Infinity recently. Played as John Kasich and totally destroyed Bernie.

Gov. John Kasich (R-OH)/Sen. Kelly Ayotte (R-NH) - 462 EVs, 57.3%
Sen. Bernie Sanders (D-VT)/Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (D-HI) - 76 EVs, 39.8%

 

[Calthrina950]

Interesting game of President Infinity recently. Played as John Kasich and totally destroyed Bernie.

Gov. John Kasich (R-OH)/Sen. Kelly Ayotte (R-NH) - 462 EVs, 57.3%
Sen. Bernie Sanders (D-VT)/Tulsi Gabbard (D-HI) - 76 EVs, 39.8%

This map almost looks like that of 1988, with some differences.

 

[The Uchronian]

It's not that out of the picture. Polls show that McMullin would beat Hatch by four points, and that 70% of Utahans want him to retire. In 2012, he was tied with Hatch in opinion polls but decided not to run. However, I agree with you somewhat. Only Matheson or McMullin really have a shot at defeating Hatch in 2018 thanks to their personal popularity.

Hmm.....you know, Oppo, this really is a good point.

 

[Tex Arkana]

This map almost looks like that of 1988, with some differences.

2016 IOTL also looked like that of 1988, with some differences.

 

[Rosa Luxemburg]

It's not that out of the picture. Polls show that McMullin would beat Hatch by four points, and that 70% of Utahans want him to retire. In 2012, he was tied with Hatch in opinion polls but decided not to run. However, I agree with you somewhat. Only Matheson or McMullin really have a shot at defeating Hatch in 2018 thanks to their personal popularity.

There's a poll with Jenny Wilson that shows her beating Hatch 45-35 with 21% being undecided. But, I agree that Matheson and McMullin are the best bets.

 

[VT45]

Hey, look who's back! Nice map, VT! I've missed seeing stuff from your universe.....I'd love to see you make a full-fledged TL outta this someday, btw.

Aww, thanks! And hey, I could always use a helping hand in worldbuilding. Maybe you could help figure out what's happening in California?

 

[nofynofie]

the map for Cruz vs Clinton would probably be Obama 2012 + North Carolina and Arizona for Clinton, IMO.

I could see Hillary at 475 or more if Trump runs third party ... like there's a reason almost everyone fucking hates Ted Cruz and he's ugly and annoying...

I'm not so sure, his immigration positions are just as extreme as Trump's, and even farther to the right in certain aspects. on top of this, Cruz is just extremely unlikable and would probably do worse with Arizona whites than Trump did.

I don't believe that Cruz is more unpopular than Trump. Many people voted Clinton just because of Trump.

 

[Tex Arkana]

I don't believe that Cruz is more unpopular than Trump. Many people voted Clinton just because of Trump.

Just to be clear, if Trump ran third party (and he almost definitely would have if Cruz had won the nomination), then Cruz would have lost in a truly epic landslide.

 

[nofynofie]

Just to be clear, if Trump ran third party (and he almost definitely would have if Cruz had won the nomination), then Cruz would have lost in a truly epic landslide.

True. No doubt. Like Bush in 1992. But I was talking about Cruz-Clinton scenario (with no independents).

 

[ElectricSheepNo54]

There's a poll with Jenny Wilson that shows her beating Hatch 45-35 with 21% being undecided. But, I agree that Matheson and McMullin are the best bets.

Based on the polls, it seems the best bet for the Republicans is to run Mitt Romney for the seat.

 

[Keeganc2020]

True. No doubt. Like Bush in 1992. But I was talking about Cruz-Clinton scenario (with no independents).

That would have been a VERY different 2016 but I think he would have lost anyway and you'd probably have seen some republicans moderates voting for Clinton Cruz is basicly the modern Goldwater in terms of being the most economically right wing senator ( that can get nominated , sorry Paul) and to make matters worse his disgusting views on woman's rights and LGBT rights would turn out the youth vote in huge numbers. I'd see even in a 2 person race Clinton Wins by 3-5 points and 300-348 ECV.

 

[Keeganc2020]

Based on the polls, it seems the best bet for the Republicans is to run Mitt Romney for the seat.

I mean Utah is so red that each faction is basicly its own party. With mitt being the hometown hero with big cross over appeal as anti trump and moderate and very familiar.

 

[IFwanderer]

So, I decided to make a few maps based on the results of Argentina's legislative elections from this year (technically, on the primaries that happened last month), with +10% swings for three coalitions (Cambiemos, Kirchnerist peronism and regional variants of peronism), initially I would have gone with both 5 and 10% swings, but the maps weren't very different from the actual results, except for the extremely close margins in Buenos Aires*, Santa Fe, Neuquén and Tierra del Fuego.

First, the color code:
Yellow: Cambiemos (current government)
Light Blue: Kirchner-affiliated movements
Light Greeen: Provincial Peronist governors.
Red: Frente Cívico por Santiago (weird mix of peronism and radicals in Santiago del Estero)
Base Map taken from Wikipedia and color coding taken from Argentine newspaper La Nación.

*There was even a split between the races for Senate and Deputies chamber (lower chamber of congress) in this province, with former president Cristina Kirchner winning the Senate by ~0,20%, and Cambiemos winning the latter by ~2%

with that said, here's the ~10% swing for Cambiemos:

Spoiler: Cambiemos +10% swing

Note that the provinces of Catamarca and La Rioja would be at extremely close margins in this scenario (~0,3% and ~1% difference respectively). This results flips to Cambiemos the provinces of Buenos Aires (Senate), Chaco, Chubut and Santa Fe.

Now, going in the opposite direction, the results if Kirchnerists coalitions (in the provinces where they ran separately from the local variants of Peronism) did 10% better:

Spoiler: K+10%

The map doesn't show that they would swap a few second place results. They also manage to flip Neuquén and the Buenos Aires deputies race.

Finally, results for Peronist electoral fronts doing 10% better:

Spoiler: Peronism + 10%

Here the Buenos Aires Senate race flips to Cambiemos due to spoiler effect by their candidate in that province, but Cambiemos loses Entre Rios, Mendoza, Neuquen and Jujuy (Corrientes would also be a very close result, at 1% from flipping), while the Kirchnerists lose Tierra del Fuego and Chubut.

 

[Rosa Luxemburg]

Based on the polls, it seems the best bet for the Republicans is to run Mitt Romney for the seat.

True. With Hatch still running, maybe this would be the perfect moment for United Utah to gain a senator with McMullin