Alternate Electoral Maps II

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Tex Arkana

Tex Arkana

killertahu22 said:
A republican winning Virginia? Never! We are officially solidly blue :p
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If Manchin could keep up Obama/Clinton-like margins in NOVA, he would win Virginia by ~15% considering he'd also be doing extremely well in Southeast Virginia. but I think in reality he'd do only slightly better than Kerry '04 in NOVA, so he'd probably win by 5% or so in a close election.
 
Gonzo

Gonzo

Utgard96 said:
Texas, yes. The Deep South, lolno. The Democrats lost the South through decades of shifting attitudes and bottom-up base building from the GOP. These days the white South votes GOP by at least 70-30 margins, a fact that a single presidential nomination is not going to change overnight. That's not how American politics works, and with the exception of the period of relative chaos between 1960 and 1980, it's not how American politics has ever worked.
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This is right. I think the best a Democrat could do would be to replicate the addition of Clinton's 1992 and 1996 showings, plus Virginia, even then I feel that states like Arkansas, Tennessee, and Missouri have gone too far away for the party to really win there. I think some people have to look into the possibility of Manchin, while being able to flip perhaps Georgia and North Carolina back in the Democratic column, not being able to win his home state (remember, Lloyd Bentsen won Texas at the Senate level in 1988 easily, but for the Presidential level the Dukakis/Bentsen ticket failed to win Texas.)
 

DPKdebator

Tex Arkana said:
And these are probably the best case scenarios for both candidates (keeping in mind that the majority of states are close-ish)

Best case for Baker:


Best case for Manchin:
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Here are a few other scenarios:

Comfortable Baker victory:
Bw44o.png


Moderate Baker victory (same thing as the first state map I posted):
kNzzP.png


Close Baker victory:
mkzzn.png


Close Manchin victory:
NbOOd.png


Moderate Manchin victory:
jmzzr.png


Comfortable Manchin victory:
dAzzX.png
 
Baconheimer

Baconheimer

I don't know why you guys think Manchin couldn't take Wisconsin and Michigan. It seems to me he's just the sort of Democrat they like there.
 

Osk

The sentiment that, "OMG he's a RURAL democrat!!!!!!!! He'll TOTALLY SWEEP THE SOUTH/GOP DOMINANT PLACES NOW" is, as someone who studies American politics, so annoying to see time and time again. I mean maybe nominating Manchin starts a trend, but some of y'all are really overestimating general party entrenchment in some of these regions. And overestimating how much an individuals actual policy positions matter. Many times regardless of personal position, voters see the big ticket positions of their party first.

And let alone that for these candidates to even get the nomination, they have to go insular towards their bases during the primary, which will hinder their center appeal even if only a little.

Anyway, the reasons why just nominating a candidate that seems to fit a mold isn't enough to flip a region are manyfold.
 

Caprice

Overall.png

A county map of the 2016 election with all of Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump's votes removed. For some states, I couldn't find county returns for all of the candidates (mostly write-ins). I used the County-BAM, obviously.

LBT.png

The percentage for Johnson only.
 

DPKdebator

Osk said:
The sentiment that, "OMG he's a RURAL democrat!!!!!!!! He'll TOTALLY SWEEP THE SOUTH/GOP DOMINANT PLACES NOW" is, as someone who studies American politics, so annoying to see time and time again. I mean maybe nominating Manchin starts a trend, but some of y'all are really overestimating general party entrenchment in some of these regions. And overestimating how much an individuals actual policy positions matter. Many times regardless of personal position, voters see the big ticket positions of their party first.

And let alone that for these candidates to even get the nomination, they have to go insular towards their bases during the primary, which will hinder their center appeal even if only a little.

Anyway, the reasons why just nominating a candidate that seems to fit a mold isn't enough to flip a region are manyfold.
Click to expand...
I agree that Manchin would not win the South barring some (pretty much impossible) huge realignment or he wins by a very large margin: in a realistic scenario, he'd probably win WV and at most KY. I also made my maps based off Baker and Manchin's current positions, not any big changes they'd make to win a primary (since their differences from the national parties would make it more interesting).
 

Osk

DPKdebator said:
I agree that Manchin would not win the South barring some (pretty much impossible) huge realignment or he wins by a very large margin: in a realistic scenario, he'd probably win WV and at most KY. I also made my maps based off Baker and Manchin's current positions, not any big changes they'd make to win a primary (since their differences from the national parties would make it more interesting).
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Oh I don't necessarily mean yours in particular! In fact I quite like the varying maps you made to show different scenarios. I've just seen this whole idea of a rural Democrat/urban Repunlican match up causing radical shifts one too many times! A few weeks back someone posted a map that literally had the GOP and Dem states just flipped, with the reasoning being "oh the dem was rural and the GOP was urban" lol see what I mean
 

Osk

OMG guys! I made an awesome map depicting exactly how the states would vote if like the GOP totally nominated an urbanite and like OMG the Dems nominated a Blue Dog!!!! NEW PARTY SYSTEM, amirite?!


Screen Shot 2017-07-19 at 11.48.07 PM.png

INSERT RURAL BLUE DOG DEM - 306 EV
INSERT URBAN MODERATE REP - 232
​
(While this is most certainly a joke, a few weeks or months ago someone literally did practically exactly this, and they weren't joking. Considering the topic here as of late, decided to post a joke map to highlight disdain for this growing cliche.)
 
The Alexander Hamilton

The Alexander Hamilton

Why do people keep making maps where Baker wins Connecticut? Sure he's a moderate from Massachusetts but here is the Dem track record in CT in the last five elections:
2000- Gore won by 17 points
2004- Kerry won by 10 points
2008- Obama won by 22 points
2012- Obama won by 17 points
2016- Hillary won by 13 points

The Democrats essentially have a lock on Connecticut with both Senators and all Representatives being Democrats and the last time the Republicans won the state was in 1988. Sure it might be closer than normal in a Baker vs. Manchin scenario but I really don't see it going red anytime soon. If you have Massachusetts stay blue in this match up, Connecticut should as well.
 

Fed

I don't think there'd be this huge overturning of the party system. Gore lost Tennessee as a Southern Democrat and Romney lost Massachussetts as the closest thing to a Rockefeller Republican that still exists - and 2000 and even 2012 were far less polarised than 2016.
 
Unmentionable Alligator

Unmentionable Alligator

DPKdebator said:
These are really the only states that would be safe or even likely (and even then, Baker and Manchin might win a couple of these states) for either party in this matchup:
kNzDQ.png
Click to expand...

Tex Arkana said:
And these are probably the best case scenarios for both candidates (keeping in mind that the majority of states are close-ish)
Click to expand...

DPKdebator said:
Here are a few other scenarios:
Click to expand...

ElectricSheepNo54 said:
I had to time to spare, so here's my interpretation of a close match between Baker and Manchin:

Charlie Baker (R-MA) - 271
Joe Manchin (D-WV) - 267

View attachment 334473
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IFwanderer said:
Another "close Manchin vs. Baker", probably not a very plausible one, TBH.
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f3c.gif
 
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