Alternate Electoral Maps II

[Turquoise Blue]

*Notes to self: 'A bit like pre-2000 Alaskan politics then'*

Don't mean to harp on, but do you have the 'base map' so to speak of the provinces and their names (I did try looking through the various links in your sig, but I alas failed in that endeavour. )

It's the one called "Lagellania, fuck yeah".

 

[Tex Arkana]

I made a county map of a hypothetical election between Charlie Baker and Joe Manchin, which looks like this:

Manchin flips many counties in Appalachia and the Mississippi Delta, while Baker is able to win over many Northern suburban counties.

I also made a state map, with the scenario depicting a comfortable Baker victory (323 EV - 215 EV). Such a strange (and unfortunately unlikely) matchup could produce many results (i.e. Manchin could've won states like NV, NC, MN, and PA while Baker might have won states like CO, KY, and VA), and although the margin of victory here is large it isn't impossible. While Manchin would improve greatly in Appalachia and the South, lower African American turnout would stop the South from flipping. Baker would appeal to (especially Northern, where there'd be a bit of a favorite son factor) suburbanites, which helps him win most of the Midwest and dampen the Democratic margins of the Northeast. Overall, the results are less extreme in terms of percentage than elections like 2016, which had 13 states over 60% (this only has 7).
View attachment 334176

This is more realistic in my opinion. Manchin still likely falls short of winning a majority of counties, but this does represent a fairly close election.

 

[Thomas Johnson]

This is more realistic in my opinion. Manchin still likely falls short of winning a majority of counties, but this does represent a fairly close election.

I'd say this. http://www.270towin.com/maps/kNzgn. California is the tipping point state (from a graph of states partisan leans)

 

[Tex Arkana]

I'd say this. http://www.270towin.com/maps/kNzgn. California is the tipping point state (from a graph of states partisan leans)

That map is just bizarre. Why does Manchin win Montana, Indiana and even Wyoming(?!) while losing Virginia and Minnesota?

 

[Thomas Johnson]

That map is just bizarre. Why does Manchin win Montana, Indiana and even Wyoming(?!) while losing Virginia and Minnesota?

Ask the graph.

 

[Tex Arkana]

View attachment 334246
Ask the graph.

Are you saying these states align very well with Manchin's beliefs?

 

[Thomas Johnson]

Are you saying these states align very well with Manchin's beliefs?

Better than Baker, apparently.

 

[Tex Arkana]

Better than Baker, apparently.

I'm not so sure I buy this idea. Idaho and Wyoming are rock-solid GOP and will go GOP in pretty much any scenario, including this one. maybe Manchin only loses these states by 10-15% instead of the standard 20-40% thrashings that Democrats usually get there, but in the end these places are really too Republican to defect just because the nominee is very centrist.

 

[AltFuture]

More please

I'll make today

 

[DPKdebator]

This is more realistic in my opinion. Manchin still likely falls short of winning a majority of counties, but this does represent a fairly close election.

I'd say this. http://www.270towin.com/maps/kNzgn. California is the tipping point state (from a graph of states partisan leans)

That map is just bizarre. Why does Manchin win Montana, Indiana and even Wyoming(?!) while losing Virginia and Minnesota?

Ask the graph.

Are you saying these states align very well with Manchin's beliefs?

Better than Baker, apparently.

I'm not so sure I buy this idea. Idaho and Wyoming are rock-solid GOP and will go GOP in pretty much any scenario, including this one. maybe Manchin only loses these states by 10-15% instead of the standard 20-40% thrashings that Democrats usually get there, but in the end these places are really too Republican to defect just because the nominee is very centrist.

These are really the only states that would be safe or even likely (and even then, Baker and Manchin might win a couple of these states) for either party in this matchup:

 

[AltFuture]

1960
1964
1968

1972

The economics under Kennedy has improved, but the Vietnam War has become extremely unpopular. Kennedy did not do anything to finish it. He decided to not seek the second term, and Vice President Humphrey became a nominee.
Republicans nominated a charismatic former VP Richard Nixon, who not surprisingly won the election... in a landslide!, breaking the three democratic terms column.

Former Vice President Richard Nixon / Governor Spiro Agnew (Republican) - 503 (55.7% of PV)
Vice President Hubert Humphrey / Senator Edmund Muskie (Democratic) - 35 (44.3% of PV)

 

[AltFuture]

View attachment 334246
Ask the graph.

Can you give me a link?

 

[killertahu22]

These are really the only states that would be safe or even likely (and even then, Baker and Manchin might win a couple of these states) for either party in this matchup:

As someone with no idea who either of these people are, I am very confused with the amount of swing states

 

[DPKdebator]

As someone with no idea who either of these people are, I am very confused with the amount of swing states

Baker and Manchin are both moderates that have beliefs very different from the national parties, so the demographics they appeal to would be very different.

 

[Tex Arkana]

These are really the only states that would be safe or even likely (and even then, Baker and Manchin might win a couple of these states) for either party in this matchup:

Missouri would almost certainly be a toss-up in this scenario, and MS, AL, Texas and South Carolina would all be close too most likely. Really the entire South would be in play in this match up, save for Oklahoma (Solid Baker) and West Virginia (Solid Manchin). Vermont and Baker's home state of Massachusetts would probably be within ~5% as well.

 

[Utgard96]

Missouri would almost certainly be a toss-up in this scenario, and MS, AL, Texas and South Carolina would all be close too most likely. Really the entire South would be in play in this match up, save for Oklahoma (Solid Baker) and West Virginia (Solid Manchin).

Texas, yes. The Deep South, lolno. The Democrats lost the South through decades of shifting attitudes and bottom-up base building from the GOP. These days the white South votes GOP by at least 70-30 margins, a fact that a single presidential nomination is not going to change overnight. That's not how American politics works, and with the exception of the period of relative chaos between 1960 and 1980, it's not how American politics has ever worked.

 

[Tex Arkana]

Texas, yes. The Deep South, lolno. The Democrats lost the South through decades of shifting attitudes and bottom-up base building from the GOP. These days the white South votes GOP by at least 70-30 margins, a fact that a single presidential nomination is not going to change overnight. That's not how American politics works, and with the exception of the period of relative chaos between 1960 and 1980, it's not how American politics has ever worked.

I think Manchin would do at least 10% better with whites in the Deep South than Obama did, which combined with 85-90% of the African American vote (even with lower turnout) is enough to make states like Mississippi and Alabama competitive. also, Manchin is culturally conservative and economically populist, the perfect platform for a Democrat to run on in states like Alabama or Mississippi.

 

[Tex Arkana]

As someone with no idea who either of these people are, I am very confused with the amount of swing states

And these are probably the best case scenarios for both candidates (keeping in mind that the majority of states are close-ish)

Best case for Baker:

Best case for Manchin:

 

[Utgard96]

also, Manchin is culturally conservative and economically populist, the perfect platform for a Democrat to run on in states like Alabama or Mississippi.

Did you, in fact, read a single word of my post?

 

[killertahu22]

And these are probably the best case scenarios for both candidates (keeping in mind that the majority of states are close-ish)

Best case for Baker:

Best case for Manchin:

A republican winning Virginia? Never! We are officially solidly blue