How powerful would a Fascist Russia be?

Justinian

Banned
For the Reichswehr you're right; but note that democracy wasn't helpless against paramilitary activities, since the democratic parties had established their own militia, the Reichsbanner Schwarz-Rot-Gold.



No, that's not true. The Kapp-Putsch was the action of some poritions of the Reichswehr and of the Freikorps, former units acting on their own. The leadership of the Reichswehr, which certainly had sympathies for the putschists, stayed neutral and refused to defend the government - but it didn't take part in the putsch.



In November 1932, one third of the Germans voted for the democratic parties Zentrum and SPD. Furthermore, Hindenburg had been elected with the support of the democratic parties.

I think you underestimate the support for democracy in the German population. Most Germans supported the republic until the Great Depression and Brüning's austerity policies. Poverty and unemployment lead to the great gains of the Nazi party in July 1932. But the situation improved and the Nazis already lost a great number of seats in the November 1932 elections. It was bad luck that Hitler was appointed chancellor in January 1933. In the long run the NSDAP would have lost its strong positions to more moderate parties.

The Reichsbanner Schwarz-Rot-Gold was in no way capable of standing up to the right wing paramilitaries on their own, let alone against the Reichswehr. The Reichswehr itself was very obviously sympathic to the putsch, they were simply biding their time waiting to see in what direction the coup went before declaring their support, they wanted to avoid a civil war at all costs. The right wing by the 1930's became much more powerful, radicalized and entrenched in the increasingly radicalized german population. My argument that a right wing government is inevitable isn't necessarily made because of the support of the German population, but rather that of the military itself. Hindenburg made democracy palatable to their preferences, but he was obviously on his way out. There was very little preventing them from simply seizing control of the state apparatus, especially with the assistance of the DNVP.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
In a scenario where the Whites win they certainly aren't going to be strong enough to reclaim all the breakaway states, most notably Ukraine.
Why not, though? After all, Germany has already withdrawn from Ukraine by that point in time and I am unsure that Poland actually wanted to capture all of Ukraine.

No, I don't buy that. It was just one possibility, Weimar could survive with different factors at play.
Such as if Wilhelm Marx wins in 1925?

Let's assume for this scenario that the Fascist Russia's starting borders are the 1922 borders of the USSR.
If one White leader is able to quickly consolidate power, I could see this Russia becoming either as powerful or slightly less powerful in 1939 than the Soviet Union was. Indeed, when a country is poor, it can certainly achieve high economic growth rates (and more economic power equals more military power) under an authoritarian right-wing leadership--heck, just take a look at South Korea and Taiwan after the end of World War II in our TL.
 
The Whites could not take Ukraine, the Caucasus, or even possibly Belarus. Depending on who is in charge of Ukraine, if its Vasyl von Habsburg or Pavlo Skoropadsky the Ukrainian state would be too strong
They wouldn't have to.
Pavlo Skoropadsky committed Ukraine to federation with Russia.

Thirdly, it is a myth (largely based on doctored statistics from the old USSR and apologists for Stalin) that the Bolsheviks/CCCP were particularly efficient at industrialisation. They actually compare rather unfavourably to the last three Tsars. Under War Communism Russia actually deindustrialised. The New Economic Policy 1923-29 only restored Russia's industrial capacity to around 1914 levels. Stalin certainly delivered industrial production growth 1930-39 though the effects of forced collectivisation and the purges would have done as much or more damage to the economy than the Great Recession did in the West OTL.
Yes. USSRs economic "growth" was just bad damage control. There is no way purges were better to economy than being hit with great depression.
 
The Reichsbanner Schwarz-Rot-Gold was in no way capable of standing up to the right wing paramilitaries on their own, let alone against the Reichswehr. The Reichswehr itself was very obviously sympathic to the putsch, they were simply biding their time waiting to see in what direction the coup went before declaring their support, they wanted to avoid a civil war at all costs. The right wing by the 1930's became much more powerful, radicalized and entrenched in the increasingly radicalized german population. My argument that a right wing government is inevitable isn't necessarily made because of the support of the German population, but rather that of the military itself. Hindenburg made democracy palatable to their preferences, but he was obviously on his way out. There was very little preventing them from simply seizing control of the state apparatus, especially with the assistance of the DNVP.
You are saying that germans were lost cause. Wow! Cold man cold.
 
The scenario states that Russia starts out as a weak republic and only goes Fascist due to the alt-Great Depression.
That scenario avoids the Bolshevik Revolution, Civil War and War Communism so Russian industrial development will never have dropped significantly below 1914/1929 levels OTL. That means that (very roughly speaking, obviously 1920s white goods, cars and lorries, aircraft are more primitive than 1930s, likewise tractors) by 1923 the Russian Republic should have experienced at least NEP level growth rates and be at approximately the OTL 1935 level. By 1929, roughly at the 1941 level OTL. As I explained above, a Russia engaged in the world economy and needing capital to modernise/industrialise will increase the size of the world economy by 15-20% (and probably increase centralising pressures in China too -less of a Warlord era -even a relatively weak Russian Republic is a more threatening neighbour than one wracked with civil war and recovery from same as OTL 1917-29) thus maybe even 25%, and will reduce the asset bubbles of too much capital chasing returns of OTL 1929. So the alt Great Depression won't hit until around 1934 or 1935. By which point Hoover would be midway through his second term and the NSDAP would have collapsed into bankruptcy. And Russia's economy would be at around (allowing for WWII devastation) 1953 levels OTL. And the American Dust Bowl probably not quite so bad if Russia/independent Ukraine is still exporting grain (no Holodomor) and more buffalo grass retained for stockraising rather than ploughed up. If Russia goes Fascist at that point unquestionably stronger than OTL Stalinist Russia. But would it? Russians have historically shown great capacity to endure hardship And Russian Republic now nearly twenty years old and has been delivering relatively steady economic growth 1917-35. There could have been corruption scandals of course. And popular resentment at Russia not achieving all her war aims.
 
What about the original question regarding the power of Fascist Russia compared to the USSR?
Hmmm, it's tricky. Thing could go various ways.

For example in the EDC the Great War started a few months 'early' and fizzled out in 1915 with the Central Powers somewhat victorious but a peace settlement negotiated. Russia was even then enveloped in revolution (certain pre-GW events meaning that the ground was more fertile) and forced to divest itself of numerous bits of territory leading to independent Finland, Poland, baltics, Ukrania et cetera[1] and pushing the borders much further East. The result was a couple of years of not-quite-chaos but the elimination of the more extreme elements[2] led to a weak central government controlled by a Social Democrat dominated coalition.
After more than a decade of peace[3] including rapprochement between Germany (now with more Social Democrats and democracy) and France (mostly stable) things fell apart[4].

The Big Slump had a number of consequences, including the rise of what we'd call fascism and a number of revolutions, near-revolutions, civil wars and frank exchanges of views. The United States fell apart[5] into a mess of smaller successor states, Italy split in two[6], Spain got interesting and the UK went nationalist/authoritarian and eventually killed their Royal family[7].

Russia went quiet and wasn't really noticed until a nasty little group emerged. Basically a grand coalition of extremists that unified around a programme they could all live with[8]: a windy mix of nationalism, corporatism, anti-liberalism, anti-socialism, social conservatism and reactionary Orthodox Christianity with generous helpings of militarism, anti-Semitism, xenophobia and the Manifest Destiny of the Slavic Peoples to rule Eurasia....
They also began a rather brutal but undeniably effective programme of forced draught industrialisation and military expansion.
At first no-one[9] was enthusiastic about Doing Something. Even after the new Russian Empire absorbed Ukrania after a plebiscite[10].
Then the Eastern War began...





[1] Rather German dominated of course, except for Poland which even then showed distressing signs of true independence from the One True Way of doing whatever Germany wanted.
[2] Involving in many cases deep holes in the ground.
[3] And people debating the merits of the two theories of the Summer War (as it was becoming known); "We could have beaten them given more time" and
"We had a lucky escape". It rather kick-started a sub-genre of SpecFic known as "AbGen"...
[4] As they do.
[5] Without a second Civil War
[6] With a civil war.
[7] After all a good AH needs a evil, dystopian British Republic doesn't it?
[8] Though millions of other didn't.
[9] Except Poland, who got pressured by Germany and France not to intervene. This is still a stick the Poles beat the other members of the Big Three with at EuroFed summits.
[10] Yes an Anschloss analogue
 

BooNZ

Banned
Yes. USSRs economic "growth" was just bad damage control. There is no way purges were better to economy than being hit with great depression.

In 1914 Imperial Russia had far less industrial capacity than Imperial Germany. After a disastrous WW1 Russia suffers a bloody revolution and then a horrific civil war - while German infrastructure largely survives WW1 intact - yet within 20 years Soviet Industry and literacy is comparable to Nazi Germany - five years later, after being brutally on the receiving end of the Nazi war machine, the Soviet Union is declared a global superpower and worthy of a cold war...

With respect, some aspects of Soviet "damage control" must have been "less bad" than everyone else.
 
If Russia goes fascist, there probably wouldn't be Nazi Germany when fear of Communism helped them rise to power. There might be some authotarian government in Germany but not Nazis perhaps not even fascist. And even if Germany goes fascist it not mean that there would be German-Russian allaince. Fascists not necessarility form alliance systems.

The nazi ideology was at its core racist. Communism was presented as a symptom of racial inferiority, a tool used by Jews to exert political control. Poland was Facist yet was a target for complete destruction by the nazi leaders.
 
They wouldn't have to.
Pavlo Skoropadsky committed Ukraine to federation with Russia

Yes, at a time when no Russian Government existed. Federation with a few generals scattered across Eurasia? No. Rather it was a low risk political move to gain favor with the Entente. I don't think if the Whites were winning he would have done the same.
 
In 1914 Imperial Russia had far less industrial capacity than Imperial Germany. After a disastrous WW1 Russia suffers a bloody revolution and then a horrific civil war - while German infrastructure largely survives WW1 intact - yet within 20 years Soviet Industry and literacy is comparable to Nazi Germany - five years later, after being brutally on the receiving end of the Nazi war machine, the Soviet Union is declared a global superpower and worthy of a cold war...
You need to bear in mind that Imperial Russia had introduced a pretty decent education system (based on Denmark's if memory serves) and, in the under 30 age group, literacy levels were (more or less) identical to those in Britain or Germany. 1914 was almost 50 years post the emancipation of the serfs and Tsarist Russia was well aware that in needed bureaucrats, engineers, doctors etc. Remember that virtually all of Stalin's key scientists, engineers and aircraft designers received their education during the reign of Tsar Nicholas. Tsarist Russia's literacy levels were already broadly comparable to Germany never mind Soviet Russia. Yes, if you were a Kola Peninsula Lapp or a Yakut in Eastern Siberia you might have slipped through the educational net, but there would have been in absolute terms more educated Russians than educated Germans at any time in the twentieth century. And Russian industrial capacity was fast catching up with Imperial Germany by 1914, the Germans in 1914 were looking at a declining window of opportunity to fight a winnable war with Russia (even if they exaggerated the timescale of Russian modernisation and improvements to their military capacity they were broadly right that Russia would eventually outmatch Germany). Stalin did achieve some remarkable results in respect of industrialisation, it wouldn't be fair not to acknowledge that but Western supplies also played a big part in WW2 (other threads have discussed this in exhaustive detail) and the Cold War USSR was never as strong as the West thought it was
 

Justinian

Banned
The nazi ideology was at its core racist. Communism was presented as a symptom of racial inferiority, a tool used by Jews to exert political control. Poland was Facist yet was a target for complete destruction by the nazi leaders.

Poland was not by any means fascist, where would you get such a ridiculous inclination?

Opposite? How?

I'd say that a DNVP/German Military government is preferable to the Weirmar Republic.
 
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