Yes - if Emperor Jonas II manage to pull a Meiji and overthrow the Shogunate - I mean, the Hetmanate :vMore the time passe more i see a future franco-Lithuanian alliance
The Silver Knight, a Lithuania Timeline
- Thread starter Augenis
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P a r t i t i o nMore the time passe more i see a future franco-Lithuanian alliance
To me Lithuania is far too big, too stable. You have a small Lithuanian population ruling over a vast Russian and other population that easily dwarfs it. Russia did it OTL because they could literally drown everyone else in Russian blood and even they failed, that is nowhere the case here. Historically the more you tried to erase an identity the more you enforce it on it's peoples' consciousness, Jews and Basque being a good example. I'm aware that TTL Lithuanians are trying the devide and conquered tactic, but that should be even more difficult with an advance Russian State with Russian culture next door, you can't stop their culture from reaching past the border. North Koreans are doing the same thing, importing mass media from the South through smuggling despite the government's efforts against it. And that's a fellow ethnic Korean State.
You have an ethnic Russian state right next door that should have a pretty cavalry heavy military on favorable geography capable of dancing and weaving around before gunpowder advances far enough. There is no way Lithuania can remain whole after nationalism comes around full throttle, esp. Since Russians should be pretty proto-nationalistic already. They certainly won't be throwing armies of millions of men like the other big powers could both OTL and TTL.
You have an ethnic Russian state right next door that should have a pretty cavalry heavy military on favorable geography capable of dancing and weaving around before gunpowder advances far enough. There is no way Lithuania can remain whole after nationalism comes around full throttle, esp. Since Russians should be pretty proto-nationalistic already. They certainly won't be throwing armies of millions of men like the other big powers could both OTL and TTL.
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You are forgetting an important factor here - Ruthenia. The Ruthenians, unlike their cousins in Russia, are loyal to the government and do not face discrimination, and both Lithuania and Ruthenia make up the country's backbone, not just the former.
I am not here to spoil anything about future events (which I have planned as far as the late 20th century), but most of what you are worried about gets addressed. And thank you very much for the comments and criticism, I don't get much of the latter lately, which is sad, because how else do you improve?
What's the meaning in your ATL for Ruthenia? I mean even in OTL there's some controversy about it.
I guess in your ATL they're Slavs and Slavic-speaking though.
Why are the Slavic Ruthenians the backbone of the Lithuanian Empire?
Because the Ruthenians are less massacred, burned and raped by the Lithuanians than their Russian cousins?
So the Ruthenians are cowards, betrayers of the common Slavic cause?
Are the Ruthenians happy by living in the Empire where all the real power belongs to the ethnic Lithuanians?
I mean in fact the 'ethnic' Ruthenians are the second rate people after the first rate 'ethnic' Lithuanians.
I might be wrong and inattentive but I don't see a lot of ethnic Ruthenians holding important posts on the "imperial" level (I don't mean local Ruthenian administration here).
Where are ethnic Ruthenians among the imperial generals in the Grand Lithuanian army, among the high imperial office-bearers, among the imperial ecclesiastics (clergymen)?
Can an ethnic Ruthenian become the head of the Lithuanian Empire?
How numerous are the 'ethnic' Ruthenians as opposed to the 'ethnic' Lithuanians?
Do the Ruthenians serve in the imperial Lithuanian army at all? If they do, are there special Ruthenian troops?
Can you elaborate on any of these issues?
Alright, I will try.
In this TL, "Ruthenia" refers to roughly the territories of OTL Belarus and Ukraine plus the Smolensk region. More accurately, however, the difference is that these regions were acquired early on in Lithuania's existence and have thus been fully integrated into the nation.
"less" is a strong word here. More of a "almost none" to me. But yeah, sort of.
It depends on who you ask. The more liberal or nationally minded Ruthenians, like some parts of the intellectuals and lesser nobility, would probably say no to that. Others, like rich, powerful magnates whose rights are pretty much equal to their Lithuanian counterparts, don't see a big difference.
In the Lithuanian participation in the Twenty Years' War, the Livonian Front was headed by a Ruthenian general (you can go back and check, I remember that I put it down). There definitely are Ruthenian people in the highest levels of the Lithuanian government, it's just not as easy to notice because I "Lithuanize" most noble names in the nation (which speaks of an entirely different event, this being the merging of Lithuanian and Ruthenian nobility, just like what happened IOTL).
Probably not an Emperor considering their Lithuanian heritage, but a Grand Hetman - not only they can, but one already has. Just that I Lithuanized his name.
If you remember, in OTL the Chodkiewicz family originate from modern-day Belarus and are East Slavic in origin.
This fact didn't change ITTL.
Ruthenians are more numerous than Lithuanians, although the size of the latter's "ethnic" population has increased due to conquests in the north and east (ITTL, Lithuanians consider Latvians and other Balts to be "Germanized" Lithuanians)
Ruthenians serve in the Lithuanian army much like Lithuanians themselves. Russians do, too, but they are limited to the roles of average soldiers.
Thank you very much for the questions and the criticism. I concede in that I left the Lithuanian-Ruthenian-Russian triangle rather vague, and it needs to be solved considering what is going to happen eventually.
Could either of you explain WHY the people and culture went extinct in our timeline.
As far as I know, the division between Poland and Lithuania in the Commonwealth was what split the "Ruthenians" (I don't even know if that's the accurate name, it's just the closest translation of the Lithuanian word we use for them, "rusėnai") into what we know as OTL Belarusians and Ukrainians.
I can see how that division would lead to the language diverging evolving from Ruthenian dialects into Belarusian in the Grand Duchy of Lithuania and Ukrainian in the Kingdom of Poland.
I hope you do realize that this contradicts your previous statement about Ruthenia being a backbone of the Lithuanian Empire.
I mean Ruthenian rich powerful magnates, who enjoy the Lithuanian rule, are 0,00001% of the Ruthenian population.
But 99,99999% of the 'ethnic' Ruthenian population are not too happy to live under the 'ethnic' Lithuanian yoke.
In my book that doesn't qualify as 'being backbone'.
I know that the Ruthenian magnates are rich and powerful; but in case of the national popular uprising of the Ruthenian common folks against the Lithuanian yoke, the rich Ruthenian magnates who sold their Ruthenian 'ethnic' identity are the first natural target of the common people's wrath - they are robbed of their riches.
I don't quite follow you.
What does it mean "being fully integrated into the nation"?
Even if we take only Ruthenians and Lithuanians that makes kind of odd nation:
10% of the population speak the Lithuanian language
90% of the population speak the Slavic language(s)
If the Ruthenians are not discriminated (which makes them backbone of the Empire, you said), then that makes it the dual Ruthenian-Lithuanian nation. And the Lithuanians are most naturally being slowly Ruthenianized. And with time that would be the Ruthenian-speaking nation.
If the Ruthenians are discriminated they are not the backbone of the Lithuanian Empire. They are the threat, that's kind of obvious, inevitable.
So we have the Lithuanian Empire where 'ethnic' Lithuanians are 5% of the population and 90% are ethnic 'Ruthenian-Russian-Slavic' (which are closely related and are closer to each other than in OTL by the simple fact of being united into one Empire).
And those Slaves have military experience in one of the best European armies.
That's what I call "living on the gun-powder keg" for the 'ethnic' Lithuanians.
If the Lithuanian Empire is at war with some European country, that country might promise 'national independence' for all the discriminated Lithuanian Slavs - a little bit of propaganda, some letters sent into the Slavic territories, some Ruthenian and Russian nobles proclaimed Grand Princes/Hetmans/Knyazes/Zars/whatever - and there are uprisings. The independent Russians won't miss that opportunity and invade as well. If the Ruthenian/Russian detachments of the imperial Lithuanian army don't rebel, then they are considered unreliable by the Lithuanian government and withdrawn from the fronts.
So the 'ethnic' Lithuanians (5% of the population of the Empire) are against 90% of the Slavic population of their own Empire, and against the country, they are at war with, and against the invading independent Russia.
So in your opinion, what happened to get the Ruthenian people replaced by the Ukrainian and Belorussian people?
Why ? i mean in last century peasant don't care about this kind of statement, What we should ask is how they live ? If they are happy of Lithuanian rule or not. After yes it could cause problem for future but for now, i don't see any reason for a rise of nationalism, they don't have bad history between them, local ruler are Rutheinan even if they are slowly Lithuanianized, more they share a common history fighting together... So problem will rise with Enlightment but for now i don't see any reason serfdom is weaken it's a period of progress for peasant so for now they are happy but maybe after with a retrograde sovereign. Personally in begining i will more see revolt like we always be faithful we just want more right that give independance.
in TTL Lithuanian ruler encourage the Lithuanian culture which has developed throughout the country so elite became more Lithuanian after yes i think like you that peasant was not really involved in this process so maybe it could change in future.
For now they are pretty separated, and people don't care about it but maybe now with enlightment period, this process could happen being slowly Ruthenianized (it could be really nice) maybe some kind of gradual, like in begining merchant, after army, ....
Or additionally all of France, only a small minority spoke "Parisien" but after the revolution the majority of French Basque speakers, other romance language speakers, and German speakers etc etc were stamped out despite a majority of the population not speaking Parisien, if the divide and conquer strategy highlighted by augenis is put into force the population can feasibly be slowly assimilated
Those are dialects, you can't compare the two. English has a great number of Dialects that people can usually tell apart and as hard as that makes it difficult to understand it's nonetheless doable. That is certainly not the case here. Baltic and Slavic languages aren't anywhere near the same family.
Read the statement you replied to again - if the magnates are loyal to the crown, that doesn't mean that everyone outside of the magnates are not. The peasants don't have a national identity to speak of, for example.
The territories are incorporated into the bureaucratic apparatus, there are no popular uprisings like there are in Russia, and the people of the region participate in the government.
You're underestimating the Lithuanian population somewhat. In OTL Grand Duchy of Lithuania in 1430, Lithuanians and Ruthenians were split in about 30-70 percent, and ITTL, ethnic Lithuania has been expanded into Latvia and East Prussia.
You're spoiling what will happen...
Is the language family not Balto-slavic within the indo European language family, sure it would complicate things as there is a divergence but English holds no relation to Irish now does it?
And the languages that were once in France were just that-- languages even if they were from the same family. Just as Catalan and Galician aren't Spanish, modern France has dialects of French within it, but it also has occitan which is an entirely different language it couldn't fully stamp out, before the revolution France was full of numerous languages, not dialects. languages. Additionally you forget the massive amount of Breton, Basque, and Germanic languages that were eliminated or had a majority assimilated in the aftermath of the revolution. I didn't say it would be easy nor I did say it would work completely but, a minority od a population can feasibly assimilate a majority of the majority into their population despite linguistic barriers.
Additionally the language would be heavily simplified and bastardized in comparison to its predecessor, much like how English (or old English rather) once had 3 genders for objects (masculine, feminine, and neuter) which was shed because it's dumb and the population that didn't speak English as a mother tongue couldn't fully grasp i
Edit: all this to say Lithuania could do it but Lithuanian would be changed in the process
Edit: all this to say Lithuania could do it but Lithuanian would be changed in the process
No, Baltic and Slavic tongues have long since diverge. And as history has already shown us with Polish and Germans, Serbs and Hungarians, Austrians and Italians etc... In both the French and Spanish cases, the main tongue of the larger group won out assimilating words of the other, as had/is happening across the world. English is a notorious language thieve, and Japanese is practically robbing English. Mali has dozens of languages coexisting with the main Mandinka Language, a people who once controlled the entire region through successive empires and are spread out.
Romance Languages are closer than Baltic and Slavic, hell English and North German/Dutch are closer that Baltic and Slavic. You can't slam it back together. The only way is for voluntary two language system like Canada's, which is probably the case and only possible for the Upper Echelons, or the erasure of one, which will lead to a civil war. Assimilation is not possible given the sizes and Political make up.