Bytor
Monthly Donor
This is part of the "research" process for new TL that I am developing based on a different outcome to Great Northern War. Because it has a successful and surviving Charles XII of Sweden and possibly also Charles III of Austria as King of Spain, I've decided to call it "Charles in Charge". (Bonus points for those who get the joke without looking it up.)
In 1700 after decisively defeating Peter the Great at Narva in Swedish Ingria, Charles XII of Sweden decides to wait until summer and break the siege by Augustus II of Saxony at Riga, continues to focus on the Saxons and control of Poland-Lithuania. Russia was able to rest up and rearm and, after a few more but not as bad losses, their manpower let them win with the title turning at Poltava in 1709.
But there are accounts saying that some of Charles' generals urged him to take out Peter the Great in 1700 since they were utterly devastated after the first Narva confrontation, losing all their canons and military supplies to the Swedes. So imagine if this happens:
It's now late 1707, Poland-Lithuania is stable with reforms in government and is remaking it's army along Swedish lines. Sweden is stable and slightly enlarged with Pskov and Veliky Novgorod. Cossack Land (Ukraine OTL) is getting Polonised rathe rthan Russified. Russia collapses in a civil war, is cut off from the west and fractures into principalities and is a neutered backwater for a generation or more.
What does Charles XII do from now on? To make this doubly "Charles in charge", can his Anglo-Dutch supporters from the Humbelbæk get him and Poland-Lithuania to intervene in the Spanish War of Succession and end up with the Habsburg Charles III on the Spanish throne instead of Philip V?
Also, if Charles III becomes King of Spain, who takes his place as the Austrian head honcho and Holy Roman Emperor? Presumably that person has a male heir so there's no War of Austrian Succession, nor, with Stanislaw I stably on the throne of Poland, is there a Polish succession crisis in the 1730s.
Where do we go from here?
In 1700 after decisively defeating Peter the Great at Narva in Swedish Ingria, Charles XII of Sweden decides to wait until summer and break the siege by Augustus II of Saxony at Riga, continues to focus on the Saxons and control of Poland-Lithuania. Russia was able to rest up and rearm and, after a few more but not as bad losses, their manpower let them win with the title turning at Poltava in 1709.
But there are accounts saying that some of Charles' generals urged him to take out Peter the Great in 1700 since they were utterly devastated after the first Narva confrontation, losing all their canons and military supplies to the Swedes. So imagine if this happens:
- Peter the Great had left a couple of days before the battle, claiming responsibilities in Moscow
- 30 November 1700, Charles XII defeats the Russian army, capturing their equipment, and the Russians beak and run
- It's a blustery winter but the Swedes both before and after this show the ability to carry out and win winter wars against forces twice as large, so Charles XII has his army follow the Russians
- Peter the Great has only made it to Novogorod and the Swedes catch him there forcing a battle on 7 December 1700
- In the ensuing massacre, Peter the Great is killed by one of his own cannons while trying to escape to Tver
- The Boyar Duma of Russia sets up a hasty regency for 10 year old Tsarevich Alexei Petreyevich and sign a treaty repudiating the alliance with Saxony and are forced to give up Pskov
- The Boyars immediately set to squabbling, about the only thing they can agree on is reversing many of Peter the Great's unpopular modernisatons and increasing their own fiefs powers at the expense of the Tsardom
- Charles XII turns back towards Poland and crosses the Düna then June 1701
- The Polish-Lithuanian campaign goes pretty much as it did OTL, but perhaps slightly quicker without Russian help
- Charles XII gets Stanislaw I placed on the throne, forces the Saxon surrender with the Treaty of Altranstädt in 1706
- In late 1706, a Boyar faction attacks Pskov, trying to get more power in advance of Tsarevich Alexei reaching his majority next year, and they manage to get help from the remnants of the Sandomierz Confederation that had been on the Saxon side
- Charles XII thrashes Novgorod, takes Tver and advances on Moscow in the spring of 1707 while Stanislaw I attacks the Cossacks in the south
- Ivan Mazepa breaks from the Russians because the Boyars refuse help support the Cossack lands so he switches sides and the Cossack host marches nor with the Polish-Lithuanian army to support the siege of Moscow
- Tsarevich Alexei, realizing that he will not live long if the wrong Boyar faction come out on top after war with Sweden and Poland-Lithuania, tries to flee to Siberia but is captured by Swedish troops
- Tsarevich Alexei is sent to Stockholm as a hostage
- With a final attack in the summer of 1707, Charles XII, Stanislaw I and Ivan break Moscow's defenses and force the Boyars to surrender
- Sweden annexes Novgorod, nullifies the Cossack Russian treaties and the Boyars fall into civil war when the occupying forces leave
- Charles XII helps Stanislaw I clean it the last of the Sandomierz and the force through the Sejm the reforms that Stanislaw I wrote about in his OTL exile in France
It's now late 1707, Poland-Lithuania is stable with reforms in government and is remaking it's army along Swedish lines. Sweden is stable and slightly enlarged with Pskov and Veliky Novgorod. Cossack Land (Ukraine OTL) is getting Polonised rathe rthan Russified. Russia collapses in a civil war, is cut off from the west and fractures into principalities and is a neutered backwater for a generation or more.
What does Charles XII do from now on? To make this doubly "Charles in charge", can his Anglo-Dutch supporters from the Humbelbæk get him and Poland-Lithuania to intervene in the Spanish War of Succession and end up with the Habsburg Charles III on the Spanish throne instead of Philip V?
Also, if Charles III becomes King of Spain, who takes his place as the Austrian head honcho and Holy Roman Emperor? Presumably that person has a male heir so there's no War of Austrian Succession, nor, with Stanislaw I stably on the throne of Poland, is there a Polish succession crisis in the 1730s.
Where do we go from here?