Alternate Electoral Maps
- Thread starter Tayya
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Indeed, this is a thing of beauty. Would Max dare to do a FPTP map for the Weimar Republic based on those calculations? Or is that too much asking?
I have absolutely no way of saying how most of these seats would've voted, but safe bet that most of the added ones would go SPD.
It would be a massive undertaking, but I could probably reapportion the entire country according to 1910 population data if I wanted to - gemeindeverzeichnis.de is a godsend for stuff like this.
It's 2020, Trump's approval rating is hovering around 25-30% after a recession, a failed second GOP healthcare bill, and evidence implicating him in the Russian election meddling scandal, Mitt Romney challenges him for the GOP nomination but narrowly loses. in the general election Trump faces off against the Democratic ticket of Steve Bullock/Cory Booker and the third party conservative ticket, Evan McMullin/ Mitt Romney. polls throughout the campaign show Trump trailing badly behind Bullock, with some polls even putting him in third place behind McMullin. in the end Trump wins only 5 states (Tennessee and Alabama are won by razor thin margins) and 25% of the popular vote, barely clinging to second place and only beating McMullin by 1.2%. Bullock wins 38 states and 45% of the popular vote. Democrats take back the Senate and expand their majority in the House (which they took back in 2018)
It's 2020, Trump's approval rating is hovering around 25-30% after a recession, a failed second GOP healthcare bill, and evidence implicating him in the Russian election meddling scandal, Mitt Romney challenges him for the GOP nomination but narrowly loses. in the general election Trump faces off against the Democratic ticket of Steve Bullock/Cory Booker and the third party conservative ticket, Evan McMullin/ Mitt Romney. polls throughout the campaign show Trump trailing badly behind Bullock, with some polls even putting him in third place behind McMullin. in the end Trump wins only 5 states (Tennessee and Alabama are won by razor thin margins) and 25% of the popular vote, barely clinging to second place and only beating McMullin by 1.2%. Bullock wins 38 states and 45% of the popular vote. Democrats take back the Senate and expand their majority in the House (which they took back in 2018)
And the county map (keep in mind many counties are won with ~30-35% of the vote, which is why some results are a bit wacky)
That's a Bullock win in NE-02 by the looks of it, but who won NE-01 and NE-03? Looks like 3 went for McMullin but 1 looks like a photo finish between Bullock and McMullin.
McMullin wins Nebraska CD-3 60%-30%-10%, Bullock wins Nebraska CD-2 45%-35%-20%, and McMullin wins Nebraska CD-1 by about 300 votes over Steve Bullock, with Trump again coming in third.
Being excessively parochial:
I can't see Montgomery County going Democratic - even if Trump's 2016 voters were halved, he'd still be ahead by a decent margin. I suspect that Trump would narrowly win there, but I could see McMullin getting it.
Generally I think McMullin would do better in West Texas - bidness-Republican places like Lubbock and Midland, for example - and worse in the East, which is Trump territory through and through.
Might Bullock be blue doggy enough to pull potential Trump voters away though?
I think so, plus on top of being moderate, Bullock has the whole cowboy/western thing going for him because he's from Montana, which certainly helps him in the West and parts of Texas.
Right, but Bullock pulling away Trump voters would make McMullin's situation relatively better. I'm not saying that the counties that went to Bullock wouldn't - if anything, I think he underperformed in places like Foard County - but I think that some of those red counties like Ector might turn green.
It's a mixture. I gave Bullock most counties where Clinton got at least 35% of the vote, I gave McMullin counties where third parties have done well in the past (as well as counties where he's a uniquely good fit in Utah and Idaho), and I gave Trump the most Trumpian counties in the US, if that makes sense.
I'm pretty sure Reagan would get over 50% in California and Washington. Also why does Humphrey win Vermont?1968 with Reagan as GOP nominee
Ronald Reagan/George Romney-Republican: 336 EV 46.03%
Hubert Humphrey/Ed Muskie-Democratic: 163 44.52%
George Wallace/Curtis LeMay-American Independent: 39 EV 9.02%
Interesting how Johnson wins 33 states but only 287 electoral votes.
Which Montgomery County? Montgomery County, Maryland (the one just north of DC) is going for the person with a D next to their name under almost *any* circumstances...
Montgomery County, TX, just north of Houston, which went Trump 73-22.
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