Germany is turned into a cow pasture:

Titus_Pullo

Banned
I'm new here so I dont know if this scenario has been discussed before.
But how would Europe be different today if the Morgenthau Plan for a defeated Germany had been adopted? `The original plan called for completely stripping Germany of all industrial capacity forever, essentially turning it into an agricultural and pastoral country. This was to be achieved into three phases:
(i) The military forces immediately upon entry into the area shall destroy all plants and equipment which cannot be removed. (ii) Removal of plants and equipment by members of the United Nations as restitution and reparation (Paragraph 4). (iii) All plants and equipment not removed within a stated period of time, say 6 months, will be completely destroyed or reduced to scrap and allocated to the United Nations.
All Germans with technical skills were also to be relocated and dispursed as far away from each other as possible.

In addition Germany was to be divided into 3 independent countries North Germany, South Germany and an International Zone.

So what do you think the consequences would have been?

Do we get a more powerful France than in OTL?
Does the EU still get to exist?
 

ninebucks

Banned
Complete global economic collapse.

The world was more dependent on a thriving Germany than many of the allies wanted to admit.
 
I think the scenario would have been not possible in the first place since Germany even back then was too densely populated for this to have worked out. For a rural Germany to have worked out, it would have needed to have it's population reduced to a level comparable to that of France. Considering Germany had a population of around 60 million then, this would have meant that Germany would have to be reduced to around 25-30 million, resulting in 30-35 million to be expelled to elsewhere. Where would they be sent to? "Dispersion" is easier said that done. It would have been an enormous strain upon any nation taking only a fraction of these, and it would have created a social powderkeg.

Therefore, the Morgenthau Plan was never feasible in the first place.
 

Titus_Pullo

Banned
I think the scenario would have been not possible in the first place since Germany even back then was too densely populated for this to have worked out. For a rural Germany to have worked out, it would have needed to have it's population reduced to a level comparable to that of France. Considering Germany had a population of around 60 million then, this would have meant that Germany would have to be reduced to around 25-30 million, resulting in 30-35 million to be expelled to elsewhere. Where would they be sent to? "Dispersion" is easier said that done. It would have been an enormous strain upon any nation taking only a fraction of these, and it would have created a social powderkeg.

Therefore, the Morgenthau Plan was never feasible in the first place.


When Morgenthau was informed this his plan would result in the deaths of 40% of the German population in the ensuing famine, Morgenthau was quoted as saying that he didn't care. Morgenthau's plan was not so much as the relocation of 40% of the population, but their eventual demise.
 
When Morgenthau was informed this his plan would result in the deaths of 40% of the German population in the ensuing famine, Morgenthau was quoted as saying that he didn't care. Morgenthau's plan was not so much as the relocation of 40% of the population, but their eventual demise.

I somehow doubt that the allies would have wanted to more people than Stalin's Great Purges, the Holodomor and the Holocaust combined... I feel this would have seriously and utterly blown away any claims of moral superiority of the western Allies. Therefore, it wouldn't have happened. :rolleyes:
 
Well this fit along well with what Stalin wanted to do, and there is some evidence that Harry White, a friend of Morgenthau pushed the man into such ideas. White was later found out to be passing secrets to Moscow in 1948.
 
The world's most powerful econmies of the world are as follows.
#1 USA
#2 Japan
#3 Germany
You tell me what effects this has.
(BTW I always found it iroinc that the defeated Axis are so strong now)
 

Vault-Scope

Banned
First there would be a major movement toward South America and in a lesser measure, Australia and South Africa. Widspread starvation, that western press/society would first minimise and later deny.
Pro-allied German goverement is completely undemocratic and impopular, hence extremely weake. Hovewer, after what they have done the allies realises that in their interest they cannot establish any even remotely democratic governement in Germany.
Then comes the cold war and the Germans are allowed the construction of a small industry revolving at supporting "western" allied forces against the soviet-union.
Economy in continental europe remain lower but probably more equalitarian, due to the pressure of communism which remains more widspread than in OTL.
Without German funding and federal army, cost of maintaining troops for the "western" allies is much higher.
France becomes the anti-communist bastion in Europe = the USA being much more friendlier toward that country.
Today, France/Belgium/Holland could well be both more pro-US and more left-leaning than OTL.


I feel this would have seriously and utterly blown away any claims of moral superiority of the western Allies. Therefore, it wouldn't have happened. :rolleyes:

You underestimate their hypocrisy, they still would pretend to have the moral high ground even if they did twice that worst. :eek:
 
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Riain

Banned
Stalin did take a hell of a lot of plant and equipment from east Germany calling it, if he called it anything, war reparations. But Germanys strength lay in her skilled population and rich natural resources, Germany's farmland was productive, she had a lot of coal and steel and a skilled, literate, numerate populace. Agricultural Germany would lead the world in high productvity farming as a result.
 
How exactly will expanded agricultural production lead to mass-deaths through famine?

Because Germany's area was reduced by a third (with East Prussia going to the Soviet Union, and Pommerania and Silesia going to Poland). The remaining area couldn't support 60 million off itself.
 
There must be some basic economic factor that is escaping me, because I don't understand. Could someone explain to me how an increase in the number of people employed in the agriculture and an increase in the surfaces used for agricultural purposes should result in a famine? Or maybe could someone quote a source stating that some analysis at the time put in writing this assessment about a famine?

It may well result in a not very viable economy, I suppose, if there are too many unemployed workers that the agricultural sector cannot absorb and that cannot be employed in the industry or services because those are radically downsized. But for the first years after the war, the Allies were importing food anyway, and there were huge unemployment rates anyway.
Besides, plenty of underdeveloped countries over the previous century, and up to today, solved this kind of problem simply by exporting their workforce. The Soviets, the Poles, even the French could certainly make good use of skilled workers from Germany, epecially if they were paid cheaply or very cheaply, for years or even decades. This would bring about the "dispersion" mentioned by someone, BTW.

The overall population numbers, in my humble opinion, are not so much an issue as the density of population per square km. Well, the Netherlands before the war had a very high population density, and while they had industries they exported lots of foodstuffs (to Germany, among others). Germany might be turned from a food importer to a food exporter, just like from a workforce importer to a workforce exporter.

In sum, I'm not so sure that strictly practical, economical considerations alone barred this solution. What is the economic factor I'm overlooking, and was it mentioned in assessments at the time, and if so, what's the source?
 
I find it difficult to believe if all of Germany was to be turned to agricultural production they couldn't feed 60~ million.

Germany will likely be producing two or three times as much food as before. People are unlikely to be dropping like flies in such an enviroment. They will be leaving the country in droves, since why would an engineer sit about to become a farm labourer, but death from starvation seems an unlikely fate.
 
Because Germany's area was reduced by a third (with East Prussia going to the Soviet Union, and Pommerania and Silesia going to Poland). The remaining area couldn't support 60 million off itself.

They could export workers (and mouths to feed, with them), right? And, isn't a greater commitment to agricultural production in the remaining areas of Germany going to increase the production?
 
I find it difficult to believe if all of Germany was to be turned to agricultural production they couldn't feed 60~ million.

Germany will likely be producing two or three times as much food as before. People are unlikely to be dropping like flies in such an enviroment. They will be leaving the country in droves, since why would an engineer sit about to become a farm labourer, but death from starvation seems an unlikely fate.

Glad to see I'm not the only one wondering about this.
 
I think the scenario would have been not possible in the first place since Germany even back then was too densely populated for this to have worked out. For a rural Germany to have worked out, it would have needed to have it's population reduced to a level comparable to that of France. Considering Germany had a population of around 60 million then, this would have meant that Germany would have to be reduced to around 25-30 million, resulting in 30-35 million to be expelled to elsewhere. Where would they be sent to? "Dispersion" is easier said that done. It would have been an enormous strain upon any nation taking only a fraction of these, and it would have created a social powderkeg.

Therefore, the Morgenthau Plan was never feasible in the first place.

Just leave them to the tender mercy of good ole Uncle Joe; he’d reduce their population in no time at all.;)
 
Germany actually had very inefficent agriculture, (which is as good an explanation as any for why it lost 2 world wars.

Around 10 million Germans worked in agriculture in this period. - compared to circa 1 million Britons.

I am not really sure how much arable land this would fill up, in the grand scheme of things probably only a couple of per cent of the land area of Germany. This is not going to massively expand yields.

Perhaps a vast number of people transferred to the land would result in effective subsistence farming, but underemployment and no cash to pay for imports seems a more likely state of affairs than a rustic idyll.
 
I find it difficult to believe if all of Germany was to be turned to agricultural production they couldn't feed 60~ million.

Germany will likely be producing two or three times as much food as before. People are unlikely to be dropping like flies in such an enviroment. They will be leaving the country in droves, since why would an engineer sit about to become a farm labourer, but death from starvation seems an unlikely fate.

Well, let's do an exercise compare population densities:

2007 Germany - 230 people per square kilometer
1945 Germany - 168 people per square kilometer
Weimar Germany - 127 people per square kilometer
2007 France - 110 people per square kilometer

Notice anything?
 
Just leave them to the tender mercy of good ole Uncle Joe; he’d reduce their population in no time at all.;)

Easier said than done. We're talking here about a number of casualties comparable to the Great Leap famine in China over a decade later. I'm not sure Stalin was up to that magnitude.

In any case, to be honest, in my opinion, I can't understand why people defend the Morgenthau plan in the first place. Why do they envision mass death, as revenge for WWII? You know, their death wouldn't bring any single victim of the Nazi regime back. This is sickening! :mad: And I wouldn't be surprised if Titus Pullo was yet another Hurgan sockpuppet... I hope I'm wrong.
 
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