OTL Election maps resources thread

OwenM

OwenM

Re-checking things......
Thande said:
Still in the vein of U.S. turnout, I decided to try adding 10% of non voters to either side in the 2012 presidential election. For comparison I also tried removing 10% of Obama's OTL votes vs 10% of Romney's.

The result is very interesting. It shows how ingrained the US electoral college setup is with margins shifting considerably across the nation but only impacting the actual result in a handful of states. (I have ignored Nebraska and Maine's split EVs for simplicity). It also shows the effectiveness of Obama's Blue Wall strategy. Obama could lose 10% of his OTL votes (bottom left map), lose Ohio, Florida and Virginia, lose the popular vote across the USA, and yet still narrowly win in the electoral college (now wouldn't that have been fun...)

However this also works the other way - Obama effectively maxed out what he could achieve in OTL and only one state, North Carolina, is actually flipped from Republican to Democratic either by giving 10% of OTL non-voters to Obama (top left map) or taking away 10% of Romney's OTL voters (bottom right map). Having said that, in the first case Georgia and Arizona both come close to flipping, but don't quite make it.

It's worth remembering that when it comes to adding OTL non-voters, 10% represents a lot more people in the states with low turnout than the ones with high turnout - so for example Nevada and the South are more impacted by it than the higher-turnout states of the Upper Midwest. In fact this renders the latter a very resilient part of Obama's Blue Wall and shows that even though they may look close on OTL maps at first glance, it shows how laughable for the foreseeable future the idea is that the Republicans could break into Minnesota, Wisconsin and Michigan (or even Iowa) is as some have suggested - at least with anything even vaguely resembling the current battlefield and coalitions. The same is true of New Hampshire, Colorado and to a lesser extent New Mexico.

The only way Romney wins here is if he engages 10% of OTL non-voters with his charisma and unique appeal (stop laughing at the back there) as in the top right map, where he flips not only Florida, Ohio and Virginia, but also Pennsylvania and Nevada. Even then it's not what one would call a crushing electoral college victory but it is a victory - and shows how hard a climb any conventional Republican candidate facing any conventional Democratic candidate has at present.

Of course, that's not what's actually happening, is it...

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You were saying?
 

Nanwe

Alex Richards said:
Seems to be- one constituency that was abolished this time round had a high proportion of non-State housing so was viewed as being potentially more independent.
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I think several of the GRCs in the Marina area look so weird and elongated (coast then expanding s lot into the hinterland) because they seek to overwhelm private housing areas with HDB flats areas.
 

Taloc13

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2017 state elections in Uttar Pradesh. BJP swept the state in what was considered a referendum on the demonetization and the Modi administration so far. Congress is more or less done for come 2019, with experts and senior leaders commenting that they would now have to focus on the 2024 elections.
 
OwenM

OwenM

Thande said:
I stand by what I said there - anything like the current battlefield and conditions. Trump's rhetoric (and indeed Clinton's, in a bad way) changed that battlefield considerably, and the polling industry didn't keep up.
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I guess, it's just it feels like this was something mostly like the then current battlefield and conditions - much more like Wales or England (outside the West Country, and I'm not even sure about that) in 2015 than Scotland even in 1997 rather than then.
 

Harlow

2017 Dutch Election map, divided into municipality. Note that the Netherlands has a system entirely based on proportional representation, so the map simply shows which regions the different parties performed the best in--instead of a system based on FPTP. I may do more maps that show individual party strength when I have the time.

1BJkvfH.png


The People's Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD), your basic European centre-right conservative liberal party, maintained its hold on government for a third straight term, and will likely form a coalition of four parties in the coming weeks or months in order to form government. While they lost 8 seats from their last election, they still have 13 more seats than the second-placing party. A last-minute diplomatic kerfuffle with the Turkish government showed Prime Minister Mark Rutte's rational tenacity against adversity, and boosted his poll numbers.

The Party for Freedom (PVV), led by Geert Wilders, is an extreme far-right nationalist party based on anti-Islamism and hard Euroscepticism. The party made international news, and was expected to follow in the footsteps of other recent right-wing populist movements such as Brexit and the 2016 United States Presidential Election. Though the party had led almost all the polls for a year leading up to the election, they lost momentum during the campaign, even winning less seats than they did in 2010. The other main parties have explicitly rejected forming a coalition with PVV.

The Christian Democratic Appeal (CDA) is a centrist party based on Christian democracy, and was at the head of government from 2002-2010. They were able to boost their seats in the 2017 election from 13 to 19.

Democrats 66 (D66) is a centrist, pro-European, social liberal, and progressive party. This result was their second-highest number of seats won in Parliament.

The Socialist Party (SP) is left-wing, democratic socialist, and Eurosceptic. They are seen as a more left alternative to the Labour Party. Though the party has made gains in recent elections, and held steady this election, they have never been part of a coalition in government.

GroenLinks ("GreenLeft") (GL) is a centre-left, pro-European party based off of Green politics. Their party is seen as the biggest winner of these elections, raising their seat count from 4 to 14, and for the first time gaining the most votes in Amsterdam, where the Labour Party once reigned supreme. Their leader, Jesse Klader (called "The Jessiah" by some) has been compared to Justin Trudeau for his looks, youth, and optimism, as well as to Barack Obama for his campaign style. Klader offered a warm, accepting message compared to Wilders' message of harsh insularism.

The centre-left, social-democratic Labour Party (PvdA), coming off of a coalition with the VVD, lost significantly in these elections, their seat total falling from 38 to 9. They did not win a plurality of votes in any municipality, and lost their bastions of support in Amsterdam and the north of the country.

The Christian Union (CU) is another centre-to-centre-right Christian democratic party in the Netherlands. They are newer and tend to perform worse than the CDA in elections.

The Party for the Animals (PvdD), a left-wing party based on animal rights, soft Euroscepticism, and environmentalism, saw its best result yet, with 5 seats in Parliament. The party is a testimonial party, an explicitly Dutch phenomenon wherein a party does not seek to form a coalition in government, and instead focuses on making sure its principles are represented.

50Plus (50+) is a populist, pensioner's interests party founded in 2009, which also saw its best result in this election with 4 seats.

The Reformed Political Party (SGP) is an orthodox Protestant Calvinist party. Like the Party for the Animals, the SGP is also a testimonial party. The party has social conservative ideals, and is opposed to universal suffrage, instead proposing "organic suffrage" wherein the male is legally the head of household. Up until 2006, the party did not allow female membership.

Denk (Dutch: "think"; Turkish: "equality") was created in 2015 after two Turkish-Dutch representatives split off from the Labour Party. Denk is left-wing and promotes multiculturalism and social democracy.

The Forum for Democracy (FvD) is a right-wing Eurosceptic party that advocates for direct democracy. Like Denk, this party was also created in 2015 and this is its first time in Parliament.

Projected Seats:




350px-Tweede_Kamer_2017.svg.png


VVD: 33
PVV: 20
CDA: 19
D66: 19
SP: 14
GL: 14
PvdA: 9
CU: 5
PvdD: 5
50+: 4
SGP: 3
Denk: 3
FvD: 2
 
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Thande

Thande

Donor
Analytical Engine said:
Is there a province-wide map of majorities as well?
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I was going to suggest that as well, providing the numbers are readily available.

EDIT: Here is a map I found elsewhere of the first party by municipality (as above) but also the runner-up in each municipality. No, the PvdA didn't come second anywhere either.

Netherlands 2017.jpg
 
Alex Richards

Alex Richards

Donor
The PvdA collapse has been so complete that it's a rarity to come across a municipality where they got over 10% of the vote.

Though there is a small corridor in Friesland focused on Leeuwarden.
 
asanh

asanh

Alex Richards said:
The PvdA collapse has been so complete that it's a rarity to come across a municipality where they got over 10% of the vote.

Though there is a small corridor in Friesland focused on Leeuwarden.
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It's pretty shocking, the reason for that is that their strongholds completely turned against them.
(this would be a really really weird election under FPTP)
 

ajross

And pleasingly that small SP corner up the top are basically those places that stuck with them even in 2002 aka the last time this happened (if admittedly on a smaller scale).
 

Bjornhattan

asanh said:
It's pretty shocking, the reason for that is that their strongholds completely turned against them.
(this would be a really really weird election under FPTP)
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It's like if the Liberal Democrats had been a major party after 2010 and collapsed to eight seats despite that (though under FPTP the PvdA would have no seats at all).
 
Thande

Thande

Donor
Bjornhattan said:
It's like if the Liberal Democrats had been a major party after 2010 and collapsed to eight seats despite that (though under FPTP the PvdA would have no seats at all).
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It's not that comparable because the Lib Dems have never had a 'safe voter bloc' they can rely on, which I assume the PvdA formerly did given their history similar to Labour or the SPD. A collapse of a (once) class based party like that is more noteworthy in my opinion.
 
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