WI:A Successful Flight to Varennes?

So for those who don't know, the Flight to Varennes was significant episode in the French Revolution in which King Louis XVI, Marie Antoinette, and their immediate family attempted unsuccessfully to escape from Paris in order to initiate a counter-revolution at the head of loyal troops under General François Claude Amour, Marquis de Bouillé concentrated at Montmédy near the frontier. They escaped only as far as the small town of Varennes, where they were arrested after having been recognized at their previous stop in Sainte-Menehould.

So what if the Royal family successfully reached the fortress of Montmédy? Either the Royals aren't discovered or they're able to delay long enough for the troops of General de Bouillé to rescue them, though the how doesn't really mater. Also, for the sake of argument lets say the 10,000 or so troops at Montmédy are reliable. What happens next? Do we see the beginnings of an armed counter-revolution? Does Louis XVI keep to his promises and return to the concessions and compromises contained in the declaration of the Third Estate before the storming of the Bastille? Will France fall into civil war? Or would this merely lead to an early end to the monarchy?
 
I've long liked the idea of this as a PoD, where the Constituent Assembly responds by declaring that the king (and his son and brother) has abdicated his throne, and following the line of succession then offer the crown to the Duke of Orleans, a sympathizer of the revolution.
 
I've long liked the idea of this as a PoD, where the Constituent Assembly responds by declaring that the king (and his son and brother) has abdicated his throne, and following the line of succession then offer the crown to the Duke of Orleans, a sympathizer of the revolution.

That's a one way ticket to civil war. Plus how can a 5/6 year-old abdicate his rights? The National Assembly would have a hard time justifying that.
 
A little lazy (sorry I'm not 100% well today) so here is what I said on the topic last time it came up:

Not certain, as nothing in alternate history or history generally is certain.

My two cents would be that yes, a Republic is the most likely outcome ITTL. Louis flight, with his family and his vindictive anti-revolutionary brothers, would have stimulated the Jacobins and discredited the moderate constitutional monarchists. This is probably deepened if, as OTL, Mirabeau's dealings with the Royal Family in 1790-1791 become known to the public and further damage the moderate cause after his death in April 1791.

You would see a lot of uncertainty and horse-trading go on around what form of Government should come, but as OTL the Jacobins might well make use of the Parisian crowds to exert pressure on the Assembly. You might see Philippe d'Orleans emerge as a candidate, or maybe Lafayette as a Washington-style president [although the US model had little currency in France generally] with no Champ de Mars massacre to blot his copybook. But really, I think the Jacobins would be successful in steering towards a Republic.

Remember you've got that awkward left-behind letter that OTL doomed Louis to deal with as well.

http://www.historyguide.org/intellect/varennes.html

He's made it very clear that he isn't one for compromising, so I don't see why the Assembly would have any qualms about declaring a Republic.
 

Faeelin

Banned
In some ways I think this would be better for France. A French king asking Austria to invade and partition his realm is a lot less palatable than a poor man who was executed by the mob.
 
I'm more interested in what the Royalists would do, not the Revolutionaries. With the King at liberty in Montmédy I think we'd see earlier Royalist revolts in the Vendée, Brittany, Normandy and in the South. We're also likely to see the various Armée des Émigrés move into France, likely into Lorraine or Champagne. Not sure what the other Great powers would do exactly: Declaration of Pillnitz didn't happen until August 1791 and it was Louis XVI's execution that scared Europe's Sovereigns into action, so any coalition is likely to be smaller than OTL. In my opinion the question becomes whether which army is stronger: the Émigrés or the Revolutionaries? Also, will Louis XVI compromise at all, like he hinted at in the Letter left in the Tuileries, or would we see a return to May 1789?
 
I've long liked the idea of this as a PoD, where the Constituent Assembly responds by declaring that the king (and his son and brother) has abdicated his throne, and following the line of succession then offer the crown to the Duke of Orleans, a sympathizer of the revolution.

That's a one way ticket to civil war. Plus how can a 5/6 year-old abdicate his rights? The National Assembly would have a hard time justifying that.

They don't need to.Instead of making the Duke of Orleans king,they most likely just make France a republic.

A few thoughts.

1) The Constituent Assembly is likely to be far bolder than James II's parliament to reorder things as they like. They've worked a good head of steam on that front, after all, and they're going to be making Louis the King of the French in a few months OTL.

2) Deciding that they'd found the throne absent seems possible; after all, Louis did try to run, arguably with less coercion than James II (because they don't know yet that Louis had a pretty good idea as to where this was going to end up).

3) They still seem to have really cold feet about the idea of a Republic; and the factions most eager for that Republic are not yet in the ascendant.

4) Phillipe Egalite was a self-promoting bastard of Charlie Crist-ian levels. He also had better political skills than the main line of the dynasty (not hard, okay, but still).

Putting it all together, King Phillipe seems quite possible. And I think that this is a huge change, because you're putting someone into the Constitutional monarch role who could interface with factions in the Legislative and use the powers a citizen King to much greater extent, and wouldn't be starting off illegitimate to the Assembly due to the flight. His diplomatic legitimacy is something else entirely. I think that his end game, after a lengthy wars of the French Revolution, would be to get the kind of offer Napoleon got towards the end: pull back to the original borders and we'll recognize you.
 
Another cool thing to imagine about this scenario -- does La Fayette now play a greater role in the revolution and the government?

That may depend on the fate of King Philip VII. Lafayette saw Orleans as a threat, so he convinced him to flee to the British isles, which damaged his popularity and influence with the Jacobins and common people.

I personally don't see much of a future for Philippe Egalite in any case. Going by Revolutionary France's early war record, when things start to go wrong, he'll be the obvious scapegoat. Besides which, while he (and his son later in life) may have supported the Jacobins, his wife, a devout Catholic, did not l. I think by Varennes, she had already left her husband and retired to Normandy.
 
I'm more interested in what the Royalists would do, not the Revolutionaries. With the King at liberty in Montmédy I think we'd see earlier Royalist revolts in the Vendée, Brittany, Normandy and in the South. We're also likely to see the various Armée des Émigrés move into France, likely into Lorraine or Champagne. Not sure what the other Great powers would do exactly: Declaration of Pillnitz didn't happen until August 1791 and it was Louis XVI's execution that scared Europe's Sovereigns into action, so any coalition is likely to be smaller than OTL. In my opinion the question becomes whether which army is stronger: the Émigrés or the Revolutionaries? Also, will Louis XVI compromise at all, like he hinted at in the Letter left in the Tuileries, or would we see a return to May 1789?

That's not right, is it? He wasn't executed until 1793, after Valmy. It was his imprisonment that scared them, tensions rose, but France declared war on its neighbors, not the other way around. And as I recall, Louis supported said war, hoping it would discredit the Jacobins and put him back into power. I'm not sure what the French government would do without him - a lot depends on how much he does from abroad to try and screw them, I guess.
 
Considering how centralised France was whoever holds power has a massive advantage but that being said the Royalists could if they played it right amass enough support to make a proper civil war of it with the Constituent Assembly in Paris playing the Royal of the English Parliament in Westminster and Louis at Montmedy playing Charles I at Oxford.
 
Considering how centralised France was whoever holds power has a massive advantage but that being said the Royalists could if they played it right amass enough support to make a proper civil war of it with the Constituent Assembly in Paris playing the Royal of the English Parliament in Westminster and Louis at Montmedy playing Charles I at Oxford.
Rather unlikely.The army and the National Guard were overwhelmingly Jacobin--there's no way a few peasants with pitch forks can win any struggle here.There's also the fact that unlike Charles who was at least popular with the rural population,Louis XVI was universally despised--even the peasants supported the Revolution.The only reason they went against it later on was in large part due to conscription of food and able bodied men for the army.
 
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I think maybe people are forgetting where the Flight to Varennes sits with the chronology of the Revolution. June 1791 was still largely the period of revolutionary consensus. OTL the biggest reaction to the attempted flight to Varennes was that of shock. People generally, especially those outside of the corridors of power but also a large number of government officials, were honestly surprised that Louis had broken so dramatically with the Revolution. We aren't at a period of violence or factional radicalism particularly yet in the process - yes there have been violent incidents [storming of the bastille particularly] but these have been exceptions. We're a long way from violence in the Vendee and the south, nowhere near a civil war situation, and a long way from radical Jacobin control of the government.

Of course, as with any French Revolution Alt His a lot is changeable, but here is a rough timeline that outlines some of the huge butterflies that might emerge:

June 1791 - Louis XVI, his wife, and his children slip across France to Montmedy at the border. Although initially promised a loyal army of 10,000 by the Marquis de Boullie recent troop movements and the swirl of politics in France means the majority cannot be trusted as loyal and after some dithering Louis and his family flee into the Austrian Netherlands. His letters left behind, denouncing the Revolutionaries, are circulated.

July 1791 - First consternation and then panic grip France as news of Louis's flight spreads. From his base in the Austrian lowcountries, Louis issues a series of proclamations and addresses that denounce the Revolution and claim his involvement up till now was under duress. A repeat of the 1789 Great Fear grips the countryside as rumours of Austrian and Royalist armies abound.

Aug 1791 - The trickle of emigres that has been taking place since 1789 grows. The French Army and Navy are increasingly bereft of trained officers. The Jacobins, up till now a fairly small and inconsequential force, see their clubs swell in numbers across France. There are calls for a Republic, with various factions touting their favourites, but the National Constituent Assembly bumbles along in the King's absence. At Louis' urging Prussia and Austria sign a declaration calling for the restoration of the Monarchy and social order in France.

Sept 1791 - Elections take place for the new Legislative Assembly to replace the National Constituent Assembly under the Constitution of 1791. This has proved easier to implement without Louis' objections and the electorate swings slightly more left than OTL, taking advantage of the lack of a unifying Alt-King figurehead from the right. The Jacobins immediately begin to agitate for a full Republic. Unable to tolerate Louis' presence on the border any longer, the Assembly pushes Austria to pull back its troops and cease supporting Louis [taking how Cromwell put pressure on the Dutch to kick out Charles II as inspiration]. Joseph II cannot agree to this, and sends a demurring answer. There are calls for war. Louis must decide whether to extinguish the tensions and look for support elsewhere, or refuse to back down and risk invading his own country with a foreign army.

...just some ideas of what might happen. I know OP asked about the Royalists, but to understand one side you have to look at both. I think, in 1791, we aren't anywhere near a full civil war or counter-revolution really. If Louis comes back its either because he was invited Restoration style or at the head of an Austrian army. Fleeing has removed any chance of compromise.
 
There are calls for a Republic, with various factions touting their favorites, but the National Constituent Assembly bumbles along in the King's absence.
This part kind of confuses me -- why would said assembly try to just bumble along with their head of state declaring war on them, just kick such a glaring can down the road? I'll agree that if they did such a dumb thing, a republic resulting from massive Jacobin political gains is more likely, but surely they must know that as well? Why wouldn't the moderates, in this situation, do what me and others have talked about, and defend their own legitimacy by declaring the king abdicated? Especially since they must know that failing to do so is effectively handing all power to the most radical of the Jacobins.
 
This part kind of confuses me -- why would said assembly try to just bumble along with their head of state declaring war on them, just kick such a glaring can down the road? I'll agree that if they did such a dumb thing, a republic resulting from massive Jacobin political gains is more likely, but surely they must know that as well? Why wouldn't the moderates, in this situation, do what me and others have talked about, and defend their own legitimacy by declaring the king abdicated? Especially since they must know that failing to do so is effectively handing all power to the most radical of the Jacobins.

Well firstly, my account is only one possibility as I said. Other flavours are available...

OTL the National Constituent Assembly actually did just this during the few days of the Flight. Ministers met, government departments ticked over, and everything ran fine.

You've got to remember three things:

- The NCA knows that its lifetime is short-lived. Its sat for a long time, by June 1791 and is already under pressure to bow out in favour of new elections under the constitution. Why solve this particularly thorny issue when you can pass it to the next body to resolve? Particularly as the Self Denying Ordinance meant that it would, quite literally, be someone else's problem.
- If you declare the King to have abdicated then you have to do something to replace him. You have to make a decision, find a new monarch or president or declare a Republic. If you just institute a Regency-in-absentia you can keep things ticking over without making a drastic change.
- In my timeline he hadn't declared war on them. Really, what Louis would most likely do is what he did OTL throughout the Revolution. Hedge, fudge, and try to game the field. Remember there are plenty of moderates and monarchists who just want a stable constitutional monarchy like Britain. They'd maintain a dialogue with Louis in this scenario, who'd play them in an attempt to bring about his own version of 1660, and some of them would welcome that. OTL Louis always said his plan was simply to leave Paris and negotiate more freely with the Assembly from the edge of France where he wasn't under the pressure of the mob. Until the issue is forced to war, a good chunk of monarchists in the Assembly aren't going to declare the King's abdication if they think he might come back and resolve the issue with them.
 
Looking back on this, it seems there are six possible reactions (three broad possibilities, with one being sub-divisible into four more) by the National Constituent Assembly in the event that the royal family escapes to the Austrian Netherlands:
  1. Negotiate for the return of Louis XVI -- this seems to be what the royals thought would happen; but it also seems (IMHO anyway) to be the least likely of the possible reactions
  2. Do nothing, let the next government handle it -- basically kicking the can down the road; @Reydan and I discussed this course of action above; while more likely than (1), it has the not inconsiderable drawback that it lets the royal family attack the legitimacy of the CNA and government to come (by running away) without doing anything to assert their own
  3. Declare the King (and his fellow escaped family) abdicated, then do nothing -- on the one hand, this does have the advantages of kicking the can down the road, while still asserting their own legitimacy; on the other, it's still pretty unlikely, since the issue of whether or not a nation is still a monarchy is kind of a big deal for a body tasked with drafting said nation's constitution
  4. Declare the King (and his fellow escaped family) abdicated, and a Regency in absentia for Louis Charles -- not sure
  5. Declare the King (and his fellow escaped family) abdicated, and the Duke of Orleans the new king -- this is my favored outcome
  6. Declare the King (and his fellow escaped family) abdicated, and France a Republic -- also possible
I'd rank these in terms of plausibility as, from least likely to most likely -- (1), (3), (2), (6), (5) -- and I'm not sure how to rank (4). Thoughts?

CONSOLIDATE: We can also discuss how the war (OTL's Warof the First Coalition) would be affected TTL, more or less independently of what government comes to power in France following Louis' escape -- I'd agree that war with Austria and Prussia is still going to happen, but without the execution of the king, I'd wager it would remain a "limited" war with just those powers (ie Britain, Spain, etc stay neutral).
 
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By the time of the flight, the Jacobites were itching for an excuses to get rid of Louis XVI. They probably would have tried to paint him as a traitor just as they did OTL and declare a republic. The bigger question is how effective would it have been, and would Louis XVI been able to rally enough support to come back and regain power.
 
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