Twilight of the Red Tsar

Status
Not open for further replies.
With the fall of Warsaw, the uprising in Eastern Europe seemed to have been crushed. However, the Soviets overlooked two factors: the seething hatred most Eastern Europeans had for them, and the vast quantity of arms that had been spread around. In Hungary, East Germany, and especially Poland army and police stockpiles had been seized en masse by rebels. Many of those arms had been used to fight during the uprisings, but plenty of others were hidden. So while there were a few months of quiet, by November 1960 a new guerrilla force had emerged in Poland. The Home Army got its start during the Second Warsaw Uprising, when a group of Polish officers met in the Presidential Palace.

If this inspires more nationalist oriented terrorism against the Soviets the Warsaw members, then you can expect it to accelerate the decline to the Soviet Union by further depleting what little money they have in financing the crackdown of these insurgencies.
 
unfortunately Gandhi's tactics would never have worked against an authoritarian regime like the Soviet Union.
Except the OTL liberation movements of the Baltic States employed the same peaceful tactics (remember the Baltic Way) and they succeeded. The Polish Solidarity didn't use any force, either.
 
You know, I always fancied the idea of Wojtyla becoming the Polish version of Gandhi.

I fear not. This is not India and the Soviets are a very different overlord then the British. Far too much blood and destruction to go back and try a peaceful way out.

I would, however like to see the game development of military technology and equipment, as well as other fields of science. We know the Soviets have a ton more nukes, but lack ICBM's, and other things like OTL jets and tanks due to the ones who would have developed them got sent East.

They won't be much of a space race, but they are many opportunities that it holds for the west.

I also don't think they be much of the spy genre since I don't think the USSR hsve much resources to field them since they so busy dealing with matters at home and everyone hates them.
 
Except the OTL liberation movements of the Baltic States employed the same peaceful tactics (remember the Baltic Way) and they succeeded. The Polish Solidarity didn't use any force, either.

Two of the 3 Baltic States is Russian, the Russians committed mass murder on the Chinese, and they gave all of Eastern Europe a very deep hate of them since they keep burning and killing everyone to keep order.
 
Except the OTL liberation movements of the Baltic States employed the same peaceful tactics (remember the Baltic Way) and they succeeded. The Polish Solidarity didn't use any force, either.

However, TTL Soviet Union is using white phosphoris on civilians, so pacifist demonstrators are just target practice for the Communist troops.
 
While the Polish resistance may not succeed directly, the soldiers and resources that Russia is wasting in battle is rattling an already weak edifice.

Russia has seen millions of professionals purged, millions more locked out of society in gulags, and countless soldiers and resources wasted in the Sino-Soviet War. Not to mention that Soviet agriculture is under-performing and Suslov has no interest in any reforms.

Russia can't really afford one more war, and if Russia keeps drafting its young into a fruitless war in Eastern Europe with nothing to gain, the Soviets are only hastening their demise. It's basically World War I all over again.

Poland and the rest of the East Europe will be probably a low level insurgency as the rebels will hardly enjoy much support from the USA unlike the one in Afghanistan; costly and problematic but not crushing...said that a state of affair like that mean that the armed forces of the rest of the Warsaw Pact will be a lot less reliable than OTL and their supply line at more risk of attack.

Euro-American reaction at this massive crackdown will be to near panic; many will think that's a prelude for an invasion of the rest of Europe and NATO force will be at max state of alert everywhere, so that's the possibility for some nasty incident along the inter-german border (that now include part of Austria) expecially with the very probable mass of people that will try to leave communist europe using the chaos as occasion
 

bookmark95

Banned
Poland and the rest of the East Europe will be probably a low level insurgency as the rebels will hardly enjoy much support from the USA unlike the one in Afghanistan; costly and problematic but not crushing...said that a state of affair like that mean that the armed forces of the rest of the Warsaw Pact will be a lot less reliable than OTL and their supply line at more risk of attack.

Euro-American reaction at this massive crackdown will be to near panic; many will think that's a prelude for an invasion of the rest of Europe and NATO force will be at max state of alert everywhere, so that's the possibility for some nasty incident along the inter-german border (that now include part of Austria) expecially with the very probable mass of people that will try to leave communist europe using the chaos as occasion

I'm not saying it will succeed in bringing down the USSR, but it is a drag on resources. But you are also forgetting the morale factor for the Red Army. Remember that Nikolai Ryzhkov became disillusioned with the whole Marxist revolution after taking part in war crimes against China.

Potentially, one young Soviet soldier could realize "I can't keep doing this anymore", and refuse orders to kill a Polish civilian. Even if he is shot, that could spark a wave of dissent across the Red Army, as soldiers suffer not only from disillusionment, but hunger and a lack of weaponry. Suddenly, it will be 1917 all over again.
 
I'm not saying it will succeed in bringing down the USSR, but it is a drag on resources. But you are also forgetting the morale factor for the Red Army. Remember that Nikolai Ryzhkov became disillusioned with the whole Marxist revolution after taking part in war crimes against China.

Potentially, one young Soviet soldier could realize "I can't keep doing this anymore", and refuse orders to kill a Polish civilian. Even if he is shot, that could spark a wave of dissent across the Red Army, as soldiers suffer not only from disillusionment, but hunger and a lack of weaponry. Suddenly, it will be 1917 all over again.

I'm a bit surprised it has not happen yet with the unholy hell that was the war in China that Stalin made the Red Army and Russia go into with gas and horror.
 

bookmark95

Banned
I'm a bit surprised it has not happen yet with the unholy hell that was the war in China that Stalin made the Red Army and Russia go into with gas and horror.

That was probably because Stalin was still alive, and nobody dared cross Stalin. But Nikolai Ryzhkov was horrified by what he did, and became a political opponent, and countless others have. Now that Stalin is in the dirt, those dissidents, aided by the large numbers of political prisoners and Jews, both of whom are trapped in Siberia, may start to assert themselves.
 
Euro-American reaction at this massive crackdown will be to near panic; many will think that's a prelude for an invasion of the rest of Europe and NATO force will be at max state of alert everywhere, so that's the possibility for some nasty incident along the inter-german border (that now include part of Austria) expecially with the very probable mass of people that will try to leave communist europe using the chaos as occasion

I would have thought there would have been a mass breakout along the Eastern Germany border (or along TTL's wall).
 
Not a lot of routes, guards on a "Shoot first, don't even bother with questions" mood, plus the border wasn't exactly a cakewalk.

When I say mass breakout I mean in the sense that a lot of people going to try, that doesn't mean everyone made it plus I thought they would have the advantage of the disaffected army unites.
 
When I say mass breakout I mean in the sense that a lot of people going to try, that doesn't mean everyone made it plus I thought they would have the advantage of the disaffected army unites.

The army and police are probably in a state of disarray and many will probably gladly not interfere with people trying to get away so if people are quick and daring enough a lot of person can get away, other places are the various embassies, as OTL thousands of refugee can try to forcibly enter there.
While many will be captured, wounded and even killed still it's very probable that a sizeble numbers of east european will come in west europe
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Top