WI: The Germans aim for Stalingrad in 1941

Okay, I haven't really seen anyone pose a question on this what if so here goes:

What if in Operation Barbarossa it was planned to capture Stalingrad and the oilfields on June 1941? I am aware that resistance in the southern part of the front was especially fierce, but could the Germans hold a defensive line on the North/South part of the front while going forward in the south?

Now please inform if I am missing on any details as I am unaware of the defenses for Stalingrad or the Caucasus in 1941, but if they were close to grabbing Stalingrad and and the Caucasus oil fields in 1942, when they lost a good portion of their invading strength, faced a less mobilized army, and no longer had the surprise effect, could the occupation of the south russian front knock them out of the war, or at least temporarily, but severely, stall to mount subsequent offensives with ease?
 
Off the top of my head, the German leadership (both Hitler and the military) will need to completely alter their ideas of a quick victory. Taking Stalingrad would require a two year campaign, and the quick German victories of 40' and 41' had convinced everyone that victory over the Soviet Union would be quickly obtained. ("We have only to kick in the door, and the whole rotten structure will collapse" was believed by many would be the outcomes). Besides, in the German thinking, why bother with Stalingrad when taking Moscow was more important?
 
Completely undoable for logistics reasons.

No matter how successful the German offensive is in 1941, they're not getting anywhere near Stalingrad [and especially not Baku] that year, since they're limited by how quickly they can repair/repurpose the rail gauges and transport supplies to the front.
 
Completely undoable for logistics reasons.

No matter how successful the German offensive is in 1941, they're not getting anywhere near Stalingrad [and especially not Baku] that year, since they're limited by how quickly they can repair/repurpose the rail gauges and transport supplies to the front.

But could they focus on re-purposing railroads gauges in that area? Also wasn't the Soviet logistics systems down south worse than in the north or center of the front?(The Volga was the only possible logistical transport I believe)
 
Completely undoable for logistics reasons.

No matter how successful the German offensive is in 1941, they're not getting anywhere near Stalingrad [and especially not Baku] that year, since they're limited by how quickly they can repair/repurpose the rail gauges and transport supplies to the front.
Exactly. The Germans, with extra effort, can hold onto Rostov, but much beyond that point they would have not had the logistics to supply spearheads much past this point.

An interesting POD is if Hitler decides not to go for Moscow and goes all in for Ukraine after the battle of Ukraine (and the tanks diverted from the Center to Leningrad are kept on that front. The result is that Kharkov falls sooner, Rostov falls, and likely the Crimea falls by early December. Leningrad likely holds out, and the Russian counter-offensive is rebuffed everywhere other than those who strayed too far from Rostov (which is likely to happen as Hitler would be convinced that the USSR has collapsed.)

The result is that Leningrad might fall in 42 (as German siege equipment will be sent north right off the bat instead of the Crimea.) All of Ukraine's harvest is intact for the Nazis. Launching from the Don, ITTL Operation Blue likely takes Stalingrad on the march, and with the railhead expanded to Rostov by the start of the campaign, German logistics are likely stretched to the point that they can reach Baku. I am not going to speculate whether they can take it, but with a better 1941 (less casualties and heavy equipment losses) and a better harvest, the Germans might have made it painful enough for Stalin to fold by 43 if the Russian counteroffensive cannot kick Germans from Stalingrad and the outskirts of Baku (or the city itself.)
 
Seldom works on the game board. Cant eliminate all those red pieces fast enough to get there before the clock runs out.

But could they focus on re-purposing railroads gauges in that area? ...

There were not enough of the skilled or semiskilled labor, tools, & other items. There were problems with rolling stock as well. nazi ineffciency was in part at work here. The conquest of the west occured with no realistic plan or authority for reorganizing western Europes railways. The decision to attack the USSR was not accompanied by a realistic plan either. In part there were shortages than could never be filled, but the ability of major industrial players, and senior nazi officials to make exceptions, and to ignore the efforts to organize the system for war undercut preparations.
 

thaddeus

Donor
what if strategy was to seize as much Ukraine farmland and/or deny it to Soviets? and further deny any production from Kuban to be transported north? guess that would leave (undivided) Army Group South to capture Stalingrad? (or in stages? Odessa, Rostov, Stalingrad?)

if they were able to contain Soviet Black Sea fleet and use marine transport.
 
what if strategy was to seize as much Ukraine farmland and/or deny it to Soviets? and further deny any production from Kuban to be transported north? guess that would leave (undivided) Army Group South to capture Stalingrad? (or in stages? Odessa, Rostov, Stalingrad?)

if they were able to contain Soviet Black Sea fleet and use marine transport.
Obviously, it is better than OTL as the Germans lost OTL. There's a chance that it can avoid the original debacle in Stalingrad in 42, which puts Germany in much more solid war footing in 43. Likely 43 is a stalemate, Russia sits on their hands, Wallies bomb Germany into oblivion and start a new front in 44, Germany slowly collapses and lasts long enough to get nuked.

Germany could not knock Russia out of the war as soon as they declared war on the US. If they avoid DOW on US, which delays the same amount of lend lease the USSR would get in 42-43 (as port facilities and such were built), then it is possible that denying the USSR Ukraine in 42-43 can hamper their war effort enough to make a truce.
 

thaddeus

Donor
what if strategy was to seize as much Ukraine farmland and/or deny it to Soviets? and further deny any production from Kuban to be transported north? guess that would leave (undivided) Army Group South to capture Stalingrad? (or in stages? Odessa, Rostov, Stalingrad?)

Obviously, it is better than OTL as the Germans lost OTL. There's a chance that it can avoid the original debacle in Stalingrad in 42, which puts Germany in much more solid war footing in 43. Likely 43 is a stalemate, Russia sits on their hands, Wallies bomb Germany into oblivion and start a new front in 44, Germany slowly collapses and lasts long enough to get nuked.

**a disclaimer** my view is they never should have invaded USSR but instead tried to continue collaboration or at least "cold peace" as Japan did.

HOWEVER, if they did invade they were at least able to reach Stalingrad (which admit turned into disaster) but they were never able to reach Grozny? which may be somewhat of indication of direction they should have gone?

basically the Soviets would starve before they run out of oil. of course neither are likely but it seems Germans have better shot in Ukraine.
 

Cook

Banned
What if in Operation Barbarossa it was planned to capture Stalingrad and the oilfields on June 1941?

You need to appreciate that from Lvov, roughly the jump-off point for Barbarossa on the Southern Front, to Kharkov, which the Russians reached after three months of hard fighting, was a distance of 1000km. But from Kharkov to the oil wells at Baku is another 1,780km; nearly twice as far again. To plan to reach the oil fields before the weather deteriorated too badly would mean covering 2,780km in four months. That is an average of 23km per day; for infantry forces advancing on foot that would be excessive even if they were just marching on good roads and met with no opposition at all!

As a comparison: from Aachen, where the Germans began their 1940 offensive in the west, to where Europe runs out of land in Lisbon, is only 2,150km. Quite simply, the Soviet Union was big.
 
Last edited:
**a disclaimer** my view is they never should have invaded USSR but instead tried to continue collaboration or at least "cold peace" as Japan did.

HOWEVER, if they did invade they were at least able to reach Stalingrad (which admit turned into disaster) but they were never able to reach Grozny? which may be somewhat of indication of direction they should have gone?

basically the Soviets would starve before they run out of oil. of course neither are likely but it seems Germans have better shot in Ukraine.
They can't reach Stalingrad in 41. June 42, if they hold Rostov in 41 yes, but not any time in 1941.
 
Carzy Idea, Why not an Eastern Sealion.

General "Dumpfkopf" after having drunk too muck Schnapps, propose to use all the equipment build for the Invasion of England and is gathering dust, to transferd to the Black Sea. On the eve of Barbarossa the Krim is attackted
by sea and airborne troops and captured in an rapid campaign. After building up reserves they attack the Russians in the Flank.
 
Carzy Idea, Why not an Eastern Sealion.

General "Dumpfkopf" after having drunk too muck Schnapps, propose to use all the equipment build for the Invasion of England and is gathering dust, to transferd to the Black Sea. On the eve of Barbarossa the Krim is attackted
by sea and airborne troops and captured in an rapid campaign. After building up reserves they attack the Russians in the Flank.
Zis is fantastish! I shall makenz you mein newest field marshal for eastern front! Wunderbar! You are sneaky einstienen aren't you .. Vait.. Einstein Vaz Jew..

Just kidding.. Du newest field marshal ( slapping hands handing you bottle of schnapps) vait till we tell rundstedt!
 
Carzy Idea, Why not an Eastern Sealion.

General "Dumpfkopf" after having drunk too muck Schnapps, propose to use all the equipment build for the Invasion of England and is gathering dust, to transferd to the Black Sea. On the eve of Barbarossa the Krim is attackted
by sea and airborne troops and captured in an rapid campaign. After building up reserves they attack the Russians in the Flank.

More or less my idea. I posted a thread on it somewhere several years ago: A combination of littoral operations with amphib units and airborne to seize several ports in & adjacent to Estonia. There a forward supply base can be built up for supporting Army Group North against Lenningrad. It is correct the Soviet navy had laid in minefields in these waters, so a adequate minesweeping capability is necessary.

In any case I've had the best results on the game boards in the north. During the summer turns its practical to position the mass oaf maneuver to threaten both Lenningrad, or Moscow. At some point in late summer or early autumn you have to choose. Choosing to make Lenningrad the priority usually had the bet outcome for me. On the secondary front I'd aim for the best positions I could gain for a early spring offensive at whichever was the secondary target.
 
Just go around Stalingrad and go straight for the oil fields
Others have touched on the logistical difficulties already.

But simply, you can't ignore Stalingrad. If the city and the area around it remains in Soviet hands, it is a dagger pointing at the German lines. The westward bend of the Volga River, itself a wide river and thus a huge logistical barrier, gives the Soviets 1) a highly defensible salient that narrows the territory the Germans can hold in the Caucasus and 2) a springboard to drive to Crimea, and cut off any forces in the Caucasus. Its own industrial capacity is quite significant as well, shortening some of the lines of communication, and it's a major communication hub, enabling easy Soviet reinforcement. You try to ignore the city and drive to Baku, the Soviets will come crashing into your flanks, and leave your armies cut off and destroyed.
 
Others have touched on the logistical difficulties already.

But simply, you can't ignore Stalingrad. If the city and the area around it remains in Soviet hands, it is a dagger pointing at the German lines. The westward bend of the Volga River, itself a wide river and thus a huge logistical barrier, gives the Soviets 1) a highly defensible salient that narrows the territory the Germans can hold in the Caucasus and 2) a springboard to drive to Crimea, and cut off any forces in the Caucasus. Its own industrial capacity is quite significant as well, shortening some of the lines of communication, and it's a major communication hub, enabling easy Soviet reinforcement. You try to ignore the city and drive to Baku, the Soviets will come crashing into your flanks, and leave your armies cut off and destroyed.

More importantly, the entire concept of taking Baku was somewhat half-baked. The campaign was itself utopian on the basis of the tenuousness of the supply-lines, and it is exactly robust logistics one needs to capitalize the capture of Baku and environs into actually existing substantially raised user-end supply of liquid fuels. Even if the flanks could be defended, the likelihood Baku could be turned like a spigot for German oil consumption is pretty vaporous. Its significance will be far more in truncating Soviet self-supply, but of course, at this point, the US could entirely supply its Allies with liquid fuels and petroleum products. The US is the Saudi Arabia of relative production output in the 1940s.
 
Exactly. The Germans, with extra effort, can hold onto Rostov, but much beyond that point they would have not had the logistics to supply spearheads much past this point.

An interesting POD is if Hitler decides not to go for Moscow and goes all in for Ukraine after the battle of Ukraine (and the tanks diverted from the Center to Leningrad are kept on that front. The result is that Kharkov falls sooner, Rostov falls, and likely the Crimea falls by early December. Leningrad likely holds out, and the Russian counter-offensive is rebuffed everywhere other than those who strayed too far from Rostov (which is likely to happen as Hitler would be convinced that the USSR has collapsed.)

The result is that Leningrad might fall in 42 (as German siege equipment will be sent north right off the bat instead of the Crimea.) All of Ukraine's harvest is intact for the Nazis. Launching from the Don, ITTL Operation Blue likely takes Stalingrad on the march, and with the railhead expanded to Rostov by the start of the campaign, German logistics are likely stretched to the point that they can reach Baku. I am not going to speculate whether they can take it, but with a better 1941 (less casualties and heavy equipment losses) and a better harvest, the Germans might have made it painful enough for Stalin to fold by 43 if the Russian counteroffensive cannot kick Germans from Stalingrad and the outskirts of Baku (or the city itself.)

How early could Leningrad fall in this scenario? I guess its important to be sure to convince Stalin that Moscow is next.
Lets assume they take Stalingrad off the march in 1942. What would be their ways of supplying Stalingrad? Railways or waterways available?
I assume that if they get an open artery into Stalingrad they could supply a southward drive by riverboats along the caspian sea?
Alternatively, could they support a northward drive east of Moscow?
Would they be able to supply either direction by rail?
 
How early could Leningrad fall in this scenario? I guess its important to be sure to convince Stalin that Moscow is next.
Depends. If Hitler decides he knows "the economic aspects of war" and forgets all about Moscow, then the forces diverted north stay North. They may be able to hold better during the Russian counterattacks so that the Germans still hold the west bank of the Neva River, which means Leningrad falls in the winter. Worse case scenerio it falls but July due to siege equipment.

Lets assume they take Stalingrad off the march in 1942. What would be their ways of supplying Stalingrad? Railways or waterways available?

IOTL the Germans built rails and were able to bring seige guns to Stalingrad, so with rails already completed to Rostov by spring 42, they likely will have good rail service to Stalingrad by end of 42. Barges in the Don and Volga are unlikely, as Russians will be on the other side.

I assume that if they get an open artery into Stalingrad they could supply a southward drive by riverboats along the caspian sea?

No, as that would require an attack towards Astrakhan which an "economic" Hitler would not allow, he would go for the oil jugular. Expect trucks traveling over hundreds of miles of roads as per OTL. Remember, according to Hitler, the Russian army is nearly done...no need to worry about logistics, you'd let them get away. They'd definitely get to Grozny, maybe overstretched to "near" Baku but unlikely. Going for Baku would require taking Astrakhan and doing what you said in 43, which by that point the Germans might have to withdraw due to Russian reserves.

Alternatively, could they support a northward drive east of Moscow?
No, they don't have the men for it. At most, AGN ITTL after Leningrad falls would be moved towards the center, so the Russians won't have the luxury of taking all their reserves and bringing them south. Hitler might be deluded enough to think he can give it a go in the center, but he would be rebuffed.
 
The Germans would need to put more of their armored divisions in the south and prioritize that axis of attack. They'd also be extending a very long push in the South that would leave them open to a flanking attack that could cut off the German Army. IOTL, they reached Rostov by November 21, but were kicked out a week later as they were overextended. Even if the Germans are able to take Rostov much earlier - in October or even September, they still have a long way to go to Stalingrad much less the Caucasus oil fields. They can cross the Don and enter the Kuban, but I don't think they'll cross the Don in the east where it is closest to Stalingrad.

They can place themselves in a much better position for a 1942 offensive, but they've also made themselves more vulnerable to a Russian attack on that long flank where their southern conquests extended far beyond their advance in the center.
 
Top